NBA Plays (Christmas and January)...

[emkee]

Still spitting chalk.

Meat running this 8 again tonight...

Olynyk, Vincent, Achiuwa, Herro, Iguodala, Robinson, Silva, Strus.

Beat up line-ups rarely get up for the 2nd game and the Meat were well up for the 1st.

Sixers move on from the Jimmy talk (and move onto the Beal chatter, lol) so they should be up for it.

Sixers average MOV in as big home chalk this season is +16 points.

Lean Dubs late.

 

[emkee]

No idea why the line is 'falling'.

Sixers getting dudes back, Meat running the same 8 from Tuesday.

Interesting...

 

[emkee]

Down to -8 at some spots.

 

[Noles4life]

Down to -5 sheesh

 

[Noles4life]

Nm it was a live line i saw

 

[emkee]

Still no idea what moved that line other than the Mafia.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good question.

Grabbed some -6 live.

Go Sixers

 

[B.A.R.]

What a finish to the first!

 

[Botanical]

Lets gooo!! Danny Green is a great pickup

 

[emkee]

Not sure what warranted a 4 point swing from -11 to -7 but I'll take the win.

Weirdest movement I've witnessed in a long time, especially given the rosters.

 

[Coolslaw1]

:clapping2:

 

[Botanical]

Lfg!!!

 

[emkee]

Home teams this season...

71-97-3 (42.3%)

Home faves this season...

38-60-1 ATS (38.8%)

 

[B.A.R.]

Absolutely wild

 

[emkee]

late add.

Probs regret this but...

Bucks -7.5 (2 units)

 

[emkee]

Spot calls for it. Looking at the ATL...

 

[pb278817]

Go get em. Gl tonight

 

[Botanical]

Good luck

 

[twinkie13]

Oddity in that sixer game? What happened?

 

[emkee]

Regret. Seeing things better though.

 

[emkee]

Janice got scared to drive at the end of that game because of his pitiful FT shooting.

2020 Mucks the ‘new’ 2017-18 Cavs with the spread shaving.

Streak starts tomorrow.

30+ units by seasons end.

Leggo...

 

[emkee]

League a hard cap right now.

MLK.

The play...

Bucks ML -160 (3.2 to win 2)

Purely an x's and o's play.

ML'ing it because of where the spread opened, still relatively cheap.

:cheers3:

 

[Inspekdah]

What are road chalks ATS this year?

 

[emkee]

What are road chalks ATS this year?

Actually better than okay given the early dog dominance.

48-26 SU (39-33-2 ATS)

So covering at a 54% clip.

Average MOV is +6.4 points.

Been streaking the past week or so as well, road chalk 11-1 SU (10-2 ATS) last 12 with an average MOV of +13.6 points.

 

[emkee]

late, late add.

The play...

Suns -4.5 (2 units)

:cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

Sweep it

Def lean both ways

 

[emkee]

Ya, road chalk rules.

 

[Inspekdah]

Actually better than okay given the early dog dominance.

48-26 SU (39-33-2 ATS)

So covering at a 54% clip.

Average MOV is +6.4 points.

Been streaking the past week or so as well, road chalk 11-1 SU (10-2 ATS) last 12 with an average MOV of +13.6 points.

That's why I asked because of what I was noticing recently. Sounds like it's just a surge and glad I didn't miss a 70% type angle

 

[emkee]

Booker and his 5-20 FG’s, smh.

 

[emkee]

5-21

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

What a bad look for Milwaukee

 

[emkee]

Get a rebound.

 

[B.A.R.]

Joe Public looking for you in coaching carousel NFL thread....

 

[emkee]

8-15 (-15.15)

Crazy season, man. Smh. Apologies to the dudes tailing.

Not getting those bounces. Same methods, odd results.

Expected a weirder season than last but this one is something special.

Will correct it.

 

[emkee]

Taco Tuesday.

The play...

Nuggets -9.5 (2 units)

opcorn:

 

[Botanical]

Lets eat!!

 

[emkee]

2020/21 is a force unto itself. Think we're about 20% into the season, so almost a quarter.

Normally as an ELO themed capper I'd rely on info from seasons past, use about 3-5 seasons (including the current season) worth of info with each play.

Run sims and the like and get projected line-up outputs and potential outcomes, is gonna spit out favs more often than not. That's just the way it is and it has worked.

Can't include the 'Bubble' info from last season either given how much of an anomaly it was.

Started out okay but then went Titanic mode and hit a massive fucking iceberg.

Have so far paid to see the same methods ain't gonna cut it this year (at least early in the season). Will adapt and see if shit works out.

Gonna limit it to 'numbers' from this season only until things 'normalize' somewhat.

The absence of fans and playing in big empty stadiums is a thing, especially when the stadiums are enclosed which is every NBA arena unlike football.

There is no atmosphere which affects motivation, especially for teams up big late in games hence all the 'shitting of the bed' this season.

The Disney 'Bubble' was a smaller setting so all atmosphere was not lost.

That's my take anyway.

As for the Mucks play last night, that was a Coach Budz special sprinkled with Janice's continual lack of awareness in big games. Most flawed 'MVP' ever.

All that being said the Nuggets are in a good COVID season spot tonight, average MOV is +18.1 points.

 

[emkee]

Lack of a preseason also a thing, obviously.

 

[Inspekdah]

The bubble was more entertaining from a visual standpoint than these open arenas.

 

[twinkie13]

I think I know the song Spek. Another shot.

 

[twinkie13]

 

[twinkie13]

GL Em

 

[emkee]

Going by my retooled numbers, COVID is telling me to bet this.

The play...

Nets -10.5 (2 units)

:rolleyes:

 

[emkee]

Has this overhyped crew winning by 14+.

Gotta stay loyal to 'the system' and see how it goes.

 

[Inspekdah]

Damn looked away and I see the bums on the bench and Harden did their thing. 0-13 run

 

[Inspekdah]

I think I know the song Spek. Another shot.

ha. I like that song but no not the one I’ve heard. I haven’t heard it in awhile now. Was a big 3rd down song for defense a couple of months back

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

Nets play zero defense whatsoever

 

[emkee]

What can I say ?

Cavs too much talent.

 

[emkee]

late add...

Suns -5.5 (2 units)

 

[Gandolf]

Nets are tired. Nash stopped subbing in the 3rd qtr