NBA Playoff Plays (First Round)...

Like the Rockets but Ken Mauer and Ed Malloy give me the shits more than the dudes reffing the game in the Bay.

OKC have nothing other than Brodie, they cannot compete with the Rox' firepower.
 
Russ looking to extend this series to 6 games if the score holds up.

KD officially ruled out for the Dubs, hearing Livingston will play and Barnes is a GTD.
 
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[FONT=&quot]This year, when #Warriors have gotten 60% or less of spread dollars GS has gone 17-6 ATS<30% of spread dollars on Dubs tonight
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Dubs get it done.

My lines for the Thursday Game 3's...

Pacers -1, Bucks -1, Grizzlies +4
 
Very close em on the lines... Only Pacers line is where the books don't agree with you... nice!
I'm terrible at calling the lines usually...
 
Yeah. Lines based on sims, ELO and projected line-up outcomes.

Has been fairly accurate for the most part, will be fading it tonight though.
 
adding...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers


The play...

Cavaliers ML -130 (3 to win 2.31)

:popcorn:
 
Cramps has been more than kind to me in this spot over the years, no need to turn my back here.

Metrics calling for a win and potentially the Cavs best performance of the postseason, Cavs also off a few ATS losses which always helps.

We shall see.
 
70 million dollar game for Paul George imo, he's fringe All NBA if they get swept. GL regardless, but I sure as fuck am not betting against that.
 
Pacers a better chance at getting Game 4, PG will get his but they need more from the other dudes. Teague is Kyrie's bitch, period.

Peep LeBrick's Round 1 straight-up numbers since the 'Decision', it's fucking amazing.
 
Peep LeBrick's Round 1 straight-up numbers since the 'Decision', it's fucking amazing.

LeCramps is 22-1 SU in Round 1 playoff games since coming to the Heat in 2011, his one loss was Game 4 vs the Knicks in 2012.

That's a 95.7% winning percentage with an average winning margin of 10.7 points over 6 seasons. Incredible.

So he is currently on an 18-0 straight-up run in Round 1 games.

On the road in Round 1 he is 9-1 straight-up (1 loss being that Knicks game in 2012) and riding an 8-0 run.

Over that same period he is 5-0 in Game 3 of Round 1, winning by an average of 12.2 points.

You don't step in front of that, you embrace it.
 
Doubt a dysfunctional Pacers team with Paul George calling out his teammates at every opportunity will end the streak.

Teague and Monta have nowhere to hide.

Looking at Spurs at Grizz, 'take that for data' should have some effect on Memphis.
 
'Holy Shit!' trend of the night...

Grizzlies on 2 or more days rest this season are 0-15-1 ATS (2-14 SU)...
 
To your point on the Grizz with 2 or more days rest ATS record this season: do you have the numbers for 1st halves in this scenario?
 
'Holy Shit!' trend of the night...

Grizzlies on 2 or more days rest this season are 0-15-1 ATS (2-14 SU)...


I think the grizz G3 trend trumps it. The 2 days rest thing is something I only look at for the regular season
 
To your point on the Grizz with 2 or more days rest ATS record this season: do you have the numbers for 1st halves in this scenario?

Getting outscored by an average of 5.8 points.

Maybe Fizdale's rant gets them going tonight, who knows.

There will be some sort of response but not sure if it will be enough.
 
Broken Cavs tonight.

Need their shots to fall with that defense and they're not falling. Long night.

Meh. LeCramps not a god afterall.

Moving on...
 
adding...

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder


The play...

Thunder ML -135 (3 to win 2.22)

:popcorn:
 
Avoiding laying points on anything 3 or less even though I have this pegged as fairly solid win for OKC.

Brodie gets the Thunder 1 maybe 2 wins in this series and the spot couldn't be better tonight.

A 'Circle the Wagons' situation.

Scotty 2 Hotty reffing and he's 100% for the home team thus far.
 
If you're patient you'll probably get a -120 or -125.

Got in early as I thought those overrated 'sharps' would get involved but always prefer to be on the other end.

Will throw some 'numbers' out a little later.
 
In all honesty the line should be a pick 'em at the very most, telling imo.

Houston not a team built to sweep a series.
 
Took my +3 yesterday morning, hope we both get there. Wouldn't mind seeing them try to make this a series at least, just not at my expense.
 
6-seeds are 20-7 SU since 2004 when favored at home off a loss.

6-seeds are 30-16 SU when favored at home over a 3-seed.

Playoff teams that blew a 10+ point lead and lost on the road as a dog are 39-14 SU if favored at home the following game.

Home faves off back-to-back away losses in Game's 1 and 2 are 43-18 SU (37-22-2 ATS) in Game 3.
 
OKC survived.

adding...

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

The play...

Hawks
ML -137 (3 to win 2.16)

:popcorn:
 
ML again, refuse to lay points at 3 or less. Lines are so tight in the playoffs. Case-in-point the Thunder last night.

No harm playing anything under -200 in the postseason (unless you lose of course, lol).

Basically the same 'numbers' as that Game 3 yesterday apply to the Hawks. Wiz also not a team built to sweep a series.

Looking at the two late games. Some decent angles...
 
Yeah, you gotta take ML's or wait and play live at a reduced number.

Rockets covered that game for all of about 2 mins last night...brutal for spread backers...and I still think they should have won outright if Beard didn't choke in 4th with clock management and getting lazy on crucial shots late.
 
Yeah, you gotta take ML's or wait and play live at a reduced number.

Rockets covered that game for all of about 2 mins last night...brutal for spread backers...and I still think they should have won outright if Beard didn't choke in 4th with clock management and getting lazy on crucial shots late.

Agree, Thunder just don't have the cattle to really compete. It's laughable when the two benches are in and how bad OKC struggles.

Credit must be given to Russ though for going all LeBron at the line in crunch-time, main reason why those that laid the 2.5 got assed.
 
My lines for today...

Hawks Pick 'em, Grizz +2.5, Blazers +4.5 and had the Bucks -2...
 
adding...

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers

The play...

Cavaliers ML -156 (3.2 to win 2.05)

Moneyline again, opened at 3 and I don't trust Cramps at the line or after that shit he pulled in his last 2 sweep attempts.

Do have too trust the that Round 1 streak though.

Cramps 8-2 SU in 'sweep' games and currently riding a 5-0 streak.

:popcorn:
 
Yep, for sure BAR. If this dysfunctional Indy team pulls the remarkable then exactly - so be it.

Checked the history and teams that lost Game 3 after being up 20 and facing elimination in Game 4 are 0-2 SU.

If Cramps is gonna bogey dudes it's with the spread.

Nothing exciting going on here, leave that for Round 2. Just rolling with the tried and true for now.

Probably play one more tomorrow.
 
I always liked PG13, but his antics this postseason... Really lost a lot of respect I had for him...

Good luck em!
 
Thanks Divol.

Higher seed is 45-17 SU in 'closeout' games. 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) last 10.
 
Worry Pacers backers? Yeah, probably.
Actually worry both sides... If usual rate win is around 70% and current streak is 90%... One might expect the streak to end sooner, rather than later... I'm not touching this game either way though... Over could be a good option here though imo...
 
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