NBA ML dogs 3.17

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 80-138, 36.7%, +20.37 units
Spreads: 163-156-15, 48.8%, +4.98 units

Cavs -4.5 (-110) 2 units @wsex and a few other places

Utah is on a 4th in 5 on the road, and they go home for a couple days after this one. They have already lost the first 3, and now on the second B2B, they have to face the Cavs with a red fucking hot Lebron James.

03/13/2007 at Miami L 88 - 86
03/14/2007 at Orlando L 101 - 90
03/16/2007 at Philadelphia L 89 - 88
03/17/2007 at Cleveland N/A

Now, I'm not sure what the problem is with the Jazz, but they've now lost to 3 east conference teams in a row including an incredible meltdown against against the Heat. None of these East teams are threatening greatness (except, perhaps, the Heat, and they've yet to prove themselves on the road*)

*I know I bet on them at Jersey. Sufficed to say I don't think much of the Nets.

I do know that when I watched the Jazz beat everloving fuck out of the Pacers on the 7th, Williams took a shot to the knee, and when he went out, the offense faltered. He came back and performed well, but I've got to wonder if some nagging issue is stopping him from being all he can be. Add to that AK47 rolling his ankle, and even though he hasn't been that great this year, he's still probably the best cover corner in the association.

There's supposed to be quite the party in Cleveland to "welcome back" Carlos (locally known as) Loozer. I don't know if the team will have this one circled because of that, but they might because of the last game they played wherein the Jazz stole one at the end to win 99-98. Sure the Cavs covered that game, but like they gave a fuck about that...but the arena should be absofuckinglutely ROCKING tomorrow. The fans will be rabid, and boozer's going to receive all sorts of hate...

Here's an article explaining the Cleveland disposition toward him.

So we have the Cavs perhaps thinking about that last game, and they'll want to put this one away early and often if given the chance. We have the Jazz on a sweltering road trip wherein they've lost by a bucket twice (including to the perceived-as-weak Philly). This is the last game of a tough road trip, and it's against perhaps the strongest surging team in the East. Lebron is playing most excellently right now, and homefield has extra long grass to slow down Derron Williams...

Pinny has already moved the line to -5, so I decided to go ahead and hit it at -4.5 and eat the high juice.

The only other chalk I really like right off hand is Atlanta at Indiana. But I need to see the line and ruminate on it...
 
okay, regarding ML dogs...I don't like what I see.

Obviously, I'm not a fan of the Jazz. If you find what I write above pretty uncompelling, then do consider the Jazz, but if you're going to play them, do so late this afternoon because I think this line will get better for Jazz backers. But with Cleveland being on a helluva run recently

Cleveland is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games
Cleveland is on a 7 game win streak


and Utah being on the opposite thereof:
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Utah is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

I'm not taking a flyer with the Jazz - neither will I be playing them for their next game at home...

I think the game may be competitive for the first couple quarters, but by the 4th, the Jazz will be turning it over more, missing shots off the front iron, and the only real chance I see of a Jazz victory is if the Cavs pretty much just give it away.
 
Memphis hosting Chicago.

You're kidding right? Last time they played, Chicago came close to doubling the fuckers up. 111-66. Revenge might matter if Memphis had won more games than last years' knicks...hell, Memphis should just try to break 70 first. They'll continue to not play defense, and the Bulls will get lots of easy buckets off TOs.

For that last debacle, the line was -8 in Chicago and the Bulls won by 45. This time, the line is set at -5 in Memphis. Now, this might seem like value, but be assured that it is not. Memphis has a TERRIBLE time playing against teams that bother with defense, and this line should have been more like 12 or 13 last time (in my opinion). So this -5 might actually be about right.

of note:

Chicago is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis

Memphis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Memphis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

Chicago is second in rebounds in the league at 43.7
Chicago is second best in the league in field goal percentage against allowing 43.5
Memphis has the third worst rebounds in the league at 39.2
Memphis has the worst field goal percentage against in the league at 48.5

Rebounding + field goal percentage differentials equal Chicago winning by 40 again.

I'm not playing the Grizz ML here. It would be silly...even if they win, the risk FAR outweighs the reward.
 
Boston @ Spurs

More likely, imo than the Grizz, but still ridiculously unlikely. The Celtics have been competing recently. The young guys are coming along, especially Delonte West, and some of the old farts are getting back into form after missing time with injuries (pierce). But the Spurs finally had their streak broken on Thursday, and as competitive as the West has gotten in the last couple weeks, I don't see them faltering now. West is good, but after chasing TP and Manu around all night, he'll be a bit less likely to hit all those 4th Q threes to cut into a lead or even take one....The interior contest should be interesting, but you've got to wonder how crumbling it is to come so close to beating Dallas last night, and then having to face the Spurs on the B2B. Celtics +14 strikes me as decent bet, but I'm not taking the chance on this one.

of note:
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
Boston is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Boston is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Boston is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio

San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Boston
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston

One of my rules is not betting against the Spurs at home. Not breaking it today.
 
Kings @ Orlando

I hate both of these teams. I hate Orlando in general, and I hate the Kings on the road. Lean to Orlando mostly because the Kings are so bad on the road, and they just managed to lose ATS to the Heat (on a B2B with travel). Gun to my head, I'll go jump in a creek.

of note:
Sacramento is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Sacramento is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Sacramento is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Orlando is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Orlando is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Orlando is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
Orlando is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Sacramento

If you're feeling industrious and you're a significant gambling man, then a ML wager on the Kings might be fun to give a whirl, but at +5, you won't get enough, in my opinion.
 
Hornets @ Bullets

Caron Butler is supposed to be out for a week. That's 1/3 of Washington's points. Last time they played, the Hornets won by 7 as 7.5 pt dogs at home. Now they're 6.5 pt dogs in Washington...seems odd, but Paul being back and Caron being out accounts for a awful lot of that expected value shift.

The Hornets are capable of winning this game, and this one might represent the most value as of right now. I still don't like it all that much, but 2.25:1 is all but assured, and without one of the big three and with Chris Paul, I can absolutely see chances for the Hornets to win.

of note:
New Orleans is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Washington

Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

New Orleans leads the league in rebounds at 43.8

As long as they can hold Antwan and Gilbachi below 35 each, the Hornets should absolutely be in the game...

but I'm still not too keen on this game for some reason. I'm just seeing a lot of uncertainty, and I don't want to fool with it.
 
Hawks @ Pacers

I have no idea what the line will be, and I'm assuming the Pacers will be dogs, but I'm giving serious thought to playing the Hawks whatever the line is because the Pacers have just been that bad recently.

I've been profoundly impressed with just how bad the pacers have been recently. Similarly, the Hawks have been pretty damned good since JJ went down...though admittedly not so much on the road.

of note:
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana

Indiana is 1-8-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indiana is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Maceo Boston & Marquis Daniels are doubtful.
Jeff Foster and Jamal Tinsley missed last game and are questionable

The Pacers need Tinsley to be competitive with anyone. They're just in such disarray right now that it's truly laughable and pitiable.

Assuming The Pacers are dogs, there's no way in hell I play this game. If the Hawks are dogs, then I will almost certainly be on this ML dog.

:shake:
 
Bobcats @ Bucks

Bucks should obliterate them. Bucks are extremely unpredictable for me. at +10, there may be some quality Flyer Value here.

I probably won't bother because this feels like one of those games that no matter what I bet, it'll be a blowout the other way.

I fart in the general direction of this game.
 
Suns @ Nuggets

Take the Chalk or the ML. Don't fiddle with +3.......very unlikely in my mind it ends there. One team or the other will fall apart in the last few seconds...if it isn't a blowout already.

Tough to think the Suns will shoot as poorly as they did last night. Tough to think the Suns will be tired. Tough to think anything at of the Nuggets, though they seem to me to have gotten their shit together since Karl and Melo had their little come to Jesus meeting.

Not enough value in Denver to bother with the ML dog against the Suns, imo...if you have a Suns fetish, you might like the thin chalk for Phoenix.

I'm giving some serious thought to the under...

of note:
Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games
Phoenix is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Phoenix is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Phoenix is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

They like to inflate these lines a bit, and at 223ish, I think we should be okay. A final of about 109-105 seems likely to me...give or take 5 each.

And then one bad quarter for either team yields an under...
 
Warriors have value if Baron plays. No reason to think he wouldn't.

at +4, I may have plenty of ML value to play this week's favorite team...

I think the Warriors have just as much talent, and they even have a rebounder in biedrins, but they'd better cover Seattle's shooters. Even Ridnour is supposed to be back for this one...

Last time they played, the Warriors were 9.5 pt faves at home (GSW won by 4). Now they're 4pt dogs at home. That's GSW value right there.

of note:
Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Golden State is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Golden State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

anyone have a compelling reason for me to not play this one?
 
Red^^^^^I think this is the same situation where GS got bludgened by the Blazers on the road after a few coversat home, GS still hasnt proven that they can win on the road, and that is why the line is where it is...GS will be a very popular bet but against up tempo teams on the road they always fold......IMO its a sonics bet or none at all.....
 
Red I've seen you have really stepped it up in terms of the detail in your posts. Kudos.

Anyway, Chicago might be my top play tonight. The Bulls simply dominate sub .500 teams. Check the stats. They have a losing record vs. top .500 teams. They know they shouldn't drop this game.

Revenge? How? Who on that team really cares enough? Gasol wishes he was on the Bulls... Miller? Won't get a clean shot off all night.

Blowout City all over again.
 
yeah, some days I have less to do or I wake up earlier than others...it doesn't have anything to do with me being more complete in my analysis...hahaha...I'm still a chalky public square.

anyway, regarding the Grizz, that's what I think... I just don't want to play many games, you know?
 
Troutman said:
Red^^^^^I think this is the same situation where GS got bludgened by the Blazers on the road after a few coversat home, GS still hasnt proven that they can win on the road, and that is why the line is where it is...GS will be a very popular bet but against up tempo teams on the road they always fold......IMO its a sonics bet or none at all.....
Click to expand...

Thanks for your thoughts. The key to that Portland game was No Baron Davis. With him, they can win on the road...or so I'm betting on.

GSW +150 2 units
Hawks +200 2 units

Giving the Bulls some serious consideration, too...
 
Utah and G St. moneyline parlay

Atlanta is a waste of 2 units they wont beat Indiana
 
Very good thread there buddy, thanks for the effort, just read it all.:shake:

Here's what I think after working all day, coming home to sleep then waking up and logging on to CTG. :D
Now note this might change with time as these are my initial leans only.

I think Utah has no business being available at 3.20 (ML) right now, and it is the fact they've lost 3 in a row to Eastern conference teams but it doesn't mean they'll fold tonight. I'll tell you what this reminds me of: Detroit v San Antonio, that game Spurs resurrected when nobody expected them to, they were in similar situation (I don't think they were playing 4th in 5 nights though), but the strength ratio is close enough, an Eastern conference team against a Western conference one, the Western one in a funk, we all think "oh they'll bounce back when they come back home and refresh"(that bet had one more downside, the all star break nearing, the players could've been empty, dying to see their families, etc...)

They absolutely killed the Pistons. I'm not suggesting a pattern must occur again here, I'm just saying I'm looking at this 3.20 and disregarding the 4th in 5 nights. Looking beyond it. It could backfire, but I'm actually willing to invest 3 units for a possible 9+ payout.


Golden State should be a compelling bet as well, they're on a roll and Baron will be playing, as well as Monta, Richardson, and the other guys. Seattle are in a mental knockdown, they could win but I just don't think they will. This catches my attention up early.

I agree with some guys here mentioning a possible blowout Bulls win, they're not a good matchup for Memphis, they have too many weapons to beat them around with, Memphis could keep it close but I doubt they will.



Only early leans...
:shake:
 
I do buddy. :shake: I'll post my plays shortly. Of course those would be the sucker bets of the day :D but I'll post em anyway.

To the suckers. :cheers:
 
Satyr, I hear you about Utah...I don't think that'll happen this time, and if you'll recall, I was on Detroit in that game and got my ass handed to me...we'll see how it goes, I guess.

I should put in my usual caveat...

....or I could be completely wrong.

:)
 
Red- There's definite value in Hawks at 2-1 or more... team playing extremely hard right now. A Johnson used to play there as well... like the spot... can't blame ya for a 2-1er
 
I was on the Pistons back then too Red, trying to learn something from it :D.


Anyways, read my preview of the game and you'll see, it's pretty much Utah ML (low stakes) or nothing here, as the Cavs could thump them tonight as per usual.

:shake:
 
Inspekdah said:
Red- There's definite value in Hawks at 2-1 or more... team playing extremely hard right now. A Johnson used to play there as well... like the spot... can't blame ya for a 2-1er
Click to expand...

I appreciate the vote of confidence. I'm enjoying fading the Pacers right now...at 2:1, fuck yeah....

Interesting side note I don't have much confidence in...there seems to be some small question about Jermaine O'Neal's knee. He's still day-to-day on the Pacers board at realgm...

It's a pleasant enough thread to "read" anyway...but the notable part:

Indiana - Maceo Baston (toe) is probable. Jeff Foster (back spasms), Jamaal Tinsley (left leg), and Jermaine O'Neal (left knee) are day-to-day. David Harrison (left shoulder) is questionable. Marquis Daniels (left knee tendinitis) is out.
Click to expand...

Donbest has Baston as doubtful...

.......?..............
 
i hope pacers lose and magic then my nicks still have a chance to make the playoffs
 
This is the very first time I post something here and I want to thank you redbearde for this great analysis of the Cav's play.
 
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