NBA ML dogs 2.7

[redbearde]

ML Dogs: 65-114, 36.31%, +6.99 units
Spreads: 113-113-12, +47.48% +5.05 units

Last time these teams met, Shaq wasn't ripping through the NBA like a buzz saw through a snowbank. Paul Pierce is to be in the hospital for a few days (at the very least he ain't playing tomorrow). I don't like not having Jwill, but the Heat have managed without him the last few games...no reason to think they can't against the current NBA JV squad. Hell, he's questionable, and with Payton suspended monday, maybe...just maybe he'll play.

If not, there'll be a healthy dose of Quinn...perhaps with Payton out, we'll get a tolerable line... Last time they played was last year, so I'm not clear on where the line will be set. Hell, maybe the linesmen aren't either.

But if this line is suitably low, I'll definitely be on the Heat tomorrow...

of note:

Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Boston is 4-18-1 ATS at home this season - to quote eames, YOWSA!!!
Boston is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

there are, of course, a few contrary trends as well...

still moseying around the card...

'an_horse'

 

[redbearde]

Orlando has been SHITTY recently.

Orlando is 3-9-1 SU in its last 13 games
Orlando is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Orlando is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Orlando is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto

Toronto is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Toronto is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games at home
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Orlando

Last time they played (Dec 13), Toronto won in Orlando as 9.5 pt dogs. Now Toronto is a 6pt home fave. I think that radical line shift is more than necessary. In fact, -9.5 might have even been appropriate.

Also, of note, when the Raptors win ATS, they also tend to win SU...

so I shall recontinue riding the fadetrain...

Toronto -6 (-110) [wsex and thegreek still at -6]

 

[redbearde]

here's the article regarding pierce.

“We’ll see,’’ the coach added. “It’s infected and it’s pretty big. And he’s got a pretty high fever.’’

for what it's worth.

 

[redbearde]

BAR tail....I tend to think he's right about this one.

Sonics/Pacers Over 203.5 [the greek]

of note:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Indiana

 

[redbearde]

The Hornets and The Bobcats both strike me as legitimate possibilities for ML dogs...

 

[SportsNut]

came out 7.5 /8 I owuld have expected -7

 

[redbearde]

...............which one?

 

[eggnoggin]

:cheers: and GL redbearde

 

[redbearde]

Ah, I see. I might have to take the Heat if it gets a wee bit cheaper...

and I'm giving the Twolves some serious consideration...against the Warriors sans Ellis & Davis...

 

[SportsNut]

Miami -8 is high but Celts stink though they were something like 9-2 ATS backends . Not a fan of Minny...GSW whipped INDY w/o Davis and really havent missed him much past few absences

 

[SportsNut]

Chat in the AM just got busted at UB.net...nothing like finishsing 127th and wasting 4 hours for nada...need to be top 50...worse I lose when he hits a queen along with his pocket Q's to beat my K/J

 

[redbearde]

don't get me started on poker bad beats...man I can't tell you how many times I flop a boat and some fucker gets running cards to beat me......so frustrating. I don't play for significant money anymore.

Right with you on the Heat...may do nothing there. May not play the Twolves out of general no-Twolves games principle...

 

[georgioly]

gl bro. on toronto as well. orlando has lost its magic w/o hill:shake:

 

[abcs]

Orlando has a better record w/o hill..

He has nothin to do with their consistency

 

[redbearde]

I'm not worried about Orlando with or without Hill...

Carmelo has been upgraded to expected to start, and AI is probable, so no Hornets wager for me...

Jwill has been downgraded to expected to miss, and with Payton out AND That line is a bit higher than I hoped......I just don't know how that game will go. SO, no Heat for me, but I would sympathize with such a position.

I would also sympathize with a play on the Spurs....though I think it would be more fair for this chalk to be shorter.

this will likely be it for today:

Raptors -6 (-110)
Sonics/Pacers O203.5 (-110)

 

[DeFaz]

both look solid-I really like the cats tonight for the SU win! Havent pulled the trigger yet.

 

[redbearde]

thanks DeFaz..GL to you! I think the kitties may well be worth a shot tonight...hell Brevin's even been upgraded to questionable...

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[Satyr]

on the over in Indy. GL Red :shake: :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

thanks guys!

GL to us tonight!

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Bobcats ML

- From a Philly resident. GL!

 

[redbearde]

Believe I'm riding this one with you. I like it m'self.

Bobcats +4.5 (+106)
Bobcats +186

 

[redbearde]

of note:
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home

Charlotte is also 7-1 ATS last 8. Aside from getting their asses handed to them by the Heat, the kitties have played pretty well recently while the 76ers have been pretty marginal at their best...

GL tonight gentlemen.

 

[OSO$]

GL

 

[KALIND]

killem tonite red beard.

interesting gm in indy tonite:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Kalind, yeah it is. Saw you had the under.

Here's to the total ending at 204, bro!

:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Charlotte could not get ANYTHING to fall in the 1st quarter...so many shots went in and out...not bad shots, not desperation shots......they just wouldn't stay down. And the kitties never could totally overcome that deficit. Alas. Still a positive day. Seattle/Indiana was close, and Orlando sucked in the 4th as expected...

ML dogs: 65-115, 36.11%, +5.99 units
Spreads: 115-114-12, 47.72%, +6.05 units

finally have more spread wins than losses.

...unless BAR/Killa or philly comes out with a play they Lucking Fove, I will likely take tomorrow off. I've had a great run the last week or so, and I don't want to piss it away on a game I don't think so much of. Only thing that appeals to me right off is fading the Chicago Away train, and I just don't want to put money on SacK. I don't much care for the card...

hope everyone else made some money today!

:cheers: