NBA ML dogs 2.4

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 64-113, 36.16%, +5.51 units
Spreads: 108-111-12, 46.75%. +2.12 units

no bets for me yet, and I probably won't have any, but I wanted to write a bit about the dogs today...

Couple things stick out to me at first glance...one: The Clippers on the road still suck until they beat a good team on the road. While this is true:

LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road

...the Clips beat the hell out of Seattle every year, and beating boston is no feat. Before that, they squeaked by the Twolves as a 5pt fave, lost to GSW as a 2 pt fave, and beat the hornets. oooOOOoooo.....

Now, while I wouldn't classify the Raptors as a good team, at home they're a formidable opponent. Last time they met, the Raptors beat the Clips in LA when the Clippers were a -9 home fave. Last 4 games (06 and 05) between these 2 teams have all been close affairs ending with 2 or 3 pt wins...

None of this screams dominance either way, and this year the Clippers have had a HELL of a time on the road.

of note:

LA Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
LA Clippers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
LA Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road

Toronto is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers

LA Clippers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Also...if you're going to bet this game, note this:
LA Clippers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games on the road
LA Clippers are 7-16 SU in their last 23 games on the road

So if you like the Clippers in this game, do not bet the points...take the ML dog. This is common with bad teams. They don't cover without winning SU.

I personally don't like them for less than 2:1, and there's no way I'm getting that with people already betting the fuckers. The Spread was Clips -9 at home, and the Raptors actually beat them. The line at Toronto isn't, well, out of line at -3...but the Clippers on the road, again, have been less than impressive, and the Raptors already beat them once this year...

'an_horse'

 

[DuY!]

nice write up

 

[Satyr]

Yes, a convincing write up, and I won't be discussing this just for the sake of it, I'm actually considering Toronto here, and here's why:
The Clipps haven't faced many top teams lately, although Toronto are far from a top team they are 14-8 ATS at home, and 7-4 at home against teams over .500.


GL :shake:

 

[redbearde]

regarding the Hawks @ Nets....

This is one I think has some possibility. Jersey has had a long road trip (the home games to Orlando & Detroit included), and they have 3 more away before they catch a two game homestand. They play philly tomorrow, and they recently got their asses kicked against a slumping Orlando sans an injured (surprise!) Grant Hill.

Atlanta has won 3 of its last 5. Joe and Josh are coming along and playing well. The team is healthy for the first time in quite a while, and this is a team that loves to attack the rim...something the Nets have been having some trouble defending.

of note:

Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey
New Jersey is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

conversely:
Atlanta is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Jersey
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New Jersey is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Jersey is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Now, these teams haven't played this season, so there's only so much you can get out of these trends. Take them for what they're worth.

I personally think the Hawks have a decent chance of a SU win...like 40-45% or so. Consequently, I like the hawks at 250...(262 at matchbook). However, I'm hoping it gets better.......probably won't, but I can hope. Money and juice is currently on the Nets at -6.5 at matchbook, so maybe I'm wrong and I can get upwards of 3:1 and I'll be forced to play this, but right now I'm thinking I'll just sit today out and enjoy the light sports day.

If you like Atlanta, then I think a play on the Spread for 1.00 and then a play on the ML for .25 to .40 is a good style.

:shake:

 

[redbearde]

thanks DuY!

Satyr, I can totally sympathize with that play. I've been seeing -2.5 some places this morn.... GL!

 

[redbearde]

Detroit at Cleveland

Cleveland is bizarre. I still maintain that's a shitass team...the recent wins without Lebron notwithstanding. Those fuckers really seem to have an audience syndrome when James is playing, and it's sickening to watch with any idea of support. Detroit has a much better team. And they're playing like a team. If only Flip can convince Sheed to stop shooting 3s and wasting possessions.........

Honestly, if Lebron doesn't play I think Cleveland has a better chance to win this game. Without him, the Cavs pass the ball well, and if you can do that, then you can beat great defense. With Lebron, the Cavs get SPECTACULAR playmaking ability plus 4 useless humps that would be better off shitting themselves on the bench.

I don't like this line. Last time they played (Dec 21st) the line was Cavs -3.5, and now it's Cavs -2. What changed? Well, Detroit did beat the shit out of them 87-71 on their home fucking court...

Detroit has won 7 of the last 10 between these two. That and the game in December suggest to me that Denver will win this game. TimeOut has fit in well in Denver, he's scoring, he's passing well, and I really believe he fills in a hole at center left by Ben...and he fills it well.

of note:
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

conversely:
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

Take those for what they're worth.

I like Detroit in this game, but I think the line should be more like +3 or 3.5...and +110 is silly. Yes, I expect Detroit to win, but I don't like the shortass (read "sharp" or "valueless") numbers being offered.

GL today gentlemen. :shake:

 

[redbearde]

oh, all this crap is the result of me getting up for church only to find out that I'm not going today...wifey didn't sleep well, and she ain't feeling up to it. Alas.

 

[Satyr]

I'm going to attend the afternoon mass, couldn't wake up early.

 

[redbearde]

are you Catholic, then? Which country are you in?

 

[redbearde]

okay...

Hawks +7 & +248.5

 

[JPicks]

Ya, if I woke up early for Church and didn't end up going I'd have to pull the trigger on something. :shake:

 

[redbearde]

JPicks...that is, of course, how gambling works for everyone.

I need a fuggin nap...

 

[Satyr]

are you Catholic, then? Which country are you in?

yep, Catholic. Croatia is the country. :smiley_acbe:

 

[redbearde]

I'm East Orthodox. Typically, we have no afternoon mass...

:shake:

in other news,

THANK YOU ATLANTA.

 

[Throwback420]

I cant believe LUE hit that shot.


RED do you think STONS ML has a good chance 2 hit ?

 

[redbearde]

I couldn't believe they did the same shit they did at the end of regulation...but I'm glad it worked.

I do think the Pistons ML will very likely hit. If you're going to play the stones, then that would be my suggestion. I am not playing it because there was such slim upside.

Hasn't the game started already?

 

[redbearde]

right now the ML is at +125 at matchbook. I'd be stunned if you saw better anywhere else.

GL if you take it...I think the stones should win.

But no play for me.

:beer:

 

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 65-113, 36.52%, +7.99 units
Spreads: 109-111-12, 46.98%, 3.12 units

GL today gentlemen.