NBA ML Dogs 12.29

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 46-74, 38.33%, +4.105 units
spreads: 55-43-5, 53.40%, +32.124 units

I'm seeing several options I like tomorrow, including but not necessarily limited to...

Bobcats
Bucks
Hawks
Kings
Hornets

I have absolutely no interest in

Magic
Celtics
76ers
Knicks

spreads I've already played:

Bullets -7.5 (+114) 2 units
Warriors -10 (+100) 2 units

Each ML depends on the actual number of course.

I include the Hornets depending on how difficult this snowstorm makes travel for the Nugs. They may have a very fucking late night tonight. Pound for pound and talent for talent, seems to me the Nuggets should be favored significantly, though I'm not sure they'd be favored by DD at home even to the bees.

My guess is that value in the Bucks will be slim at best. I would expect 170 or so, and I'd like more than that. over 2:1 would be nice.

Lakers just off a big win over the eastern conference powerhouse of Orlando. Kitties off a heartbreaking loss to the Bullets which they let slip away. Strikes me as a letdown spot for the former and a pissed off step-up spot for the latter. I still want significant value. Perhaps people will be riding the lakers and drive up some value for me. I know Brevin is out for a while...I wish he wasn't. I still think there might be some value in there at a bit more than it would be now. Again, I want 2:1, but that might be a tall order for this one.

I think that number in Houston is too tall. Again, actual bet will depend on the number...closer to 3:1 is in order here, I think, but I do think the Hawks are capable, and damn do they need a win.

thoughts criticisms?

and what the hell do we do with the Heat tomorrow?

 

[JPicks]

Love the Wizards play. The Magic can't keep up with the Wizards offensively. I'm 100% I'm off the Wizards O bandwagon tomorrow. If there is a team that will slow down a pace it's the Magic.

 

[redbearde]

Okay, do you like the Bullets play, or are you off the Bullets Offensive bandwagon tomorrow?

I'm confused. I'm also tired. So I shall read any response tomorrow.

:shake:

 

[JPicks]

I easily see a 105-90 type game. I just don't have the balls to ever play anything over 200 when it involves the Magic. I don't think they have anywhere near the firepower it'll take to beat the Wizards right now. Look no further than the Suns/Magic game for a reminder.

 

[redbearde]

oh, okay. You like the bullets, but you don't like the Bullets/Magic Over...

gotchya. I tend to agree.

:shake:

 

[MX_259]

Think the Hornets have some value ML, Denver really played poor yesterday. Were talking the absense of three starters, Camby, Smith and Melo. That is putting all the efforts in Iverson and if you seen yesterdays game damn did he do a good job. I mean he put the ball in every players hands giving them excellent opportunities to score everytime and these guys buckled everytime. Earl Boykins offered the most consistency next to Evans. And Boykins and Iverson create a tough pair but make the Denver team look so small. It is too bad N.O. is suffering some injuries as well, but I would NOT put any money on Denver.

 

[reNew Orleans]

like those spreads, played them myself, GL redbearde

 

[redbearde]

Donbest has Ray Allen listed as expected to play. I'm breaking a rule.

Sonics +321
76ers +170
Hornets +160
Bucks +215

 

[Supersav]

i like seattle

 

[redbearde]

I like cheese.

 

[Supersav]

u sure ray ray playin?

 

[DJFadeAway]

best of luck man...

 

[macdamn]

ML dog record: 44-62 +19.84 units
Spread record: 6-5 +0.62 units

I'm in a bit of slump going 1-5 since Christmas. Hoping to turn it around tonight with these plays

Toronto +145
Milwaukee +250
Sacramento +146
Seattle +321

Yeah I'm liking the way the Raps have played recently. They're 6-2 in their last 8 games, most if not all without Bosh. Chicago just has struggled on the road this year, so this is a great spot for Toronto to finally beat them.

Milwaukee has quietly won 6 in a row, including a win in San Antonio and they're 6 point dogs to the Cavs? I'll take that any day at 2.5 to 1 to win outright.

Sacramento has won at least the last 10 against the Clippers. Injuries on both sides, but I'll take a chance on the Kings.

Seattle has won 5 of the last 7 against the Wolves.

Good luck redbearde. I don't have the gonad to join you on New Orleans since Chris Paul is listed as doubtful, plus I've lost the last couple times I've bet them, LOL.

:shake:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

GL...

Magic +220 has SIGNIFICANT value.

 

[redbearde]

GL...

Magic +220 has SIGNIFICANT value.

Not to me, bro. I have a bullets spread play. Good Health if you take it.

Mac, I'm just waiting on the Kings...I may well play them. Do consider that the Kings have been princesses on the road this year. Toronto has lost something like 17 in a row to the Bulls. GL with that, but my gonads are all used up on the Hornets.

Supersav, no I'm not sure - I don't know him personally. But we're not talking about an injury. He was waiting for his kid to be born, and it happened yesterday. There's no reason he wouldn't play, and the injury report at donbest said this: "missed last game, upgraded to expected to play Friday vs Minnesota"

renew orleans, let's win some tonight, bro!

'an_horse'

 

[redbearde]

Kings/Clippers Under 195 (+103) 2 units

 

[lfhlaw]

Are the heat that bad at home without Shaq to be +136 ML dogs? Or is Wade out too.

 

[redbearde]

Wade is doubtful.

 

[gpcyan3]

That under with the Clipshow looks solid. GL with your plays tonight red. Let's cash that ticket.

 

[redbearde]

Well, my streak with losing twolves games bets continues...

2-2 ML dogs, +1.3 units
0-1-2 spreads, -2 units

Glad I never got that Sacramento bet in, but I'm kinda vexed...I thought i had the bobcats, too, but I can't find the wager in my bets. So I guess I decided to wait on it getting larger and never got it in.

fortunately for me, the gamecocks managed a win, so I'm up a little for the day.

Yeah. Okay, I had an eventful evening. Someone called my grandmother claiming to be me...in phoenix. The story went that my wallet was stolen, my car was broken down, and wouldn't she send $450 by western union. I found out whenshe called my sister and she in turn called me.

Imagine granny's surprise when I called her and explained that I am nowhere near phoenix...then my phone tree through the family began, and by the time I was done with all that shit, I never got the bet into pinny.

it's not like the nickle is going to cripple her financially, but this fellow apparently sounded like me and he knew enough to use my middle name and what I call her. It never occured to her that it wasn't me. Which makes me wonder which supposed friend or family member pulled the wool over her eyes...and it pisses me off.

 

[SportsNut]

Thats F'n weird bro.....I could see why someone would be rattled by that...Good Luck with that

 

[JPicks]

Now that's a crazy fucking story. You know anybody in Phoenix? Any way to track where the payment went? Any cameras whereever it went? Caller ID? All things I'm sure you've looked at, but just trying to be helpful. That's shitty because it could happen again.

 

[redbearde]

Well, my grandmother lives in San Fran, and I live in eastern TN. I don't know anyone in Phoenix, and I can think of no one who knows all of these:

1. What I call my grandmother
2. my grandmother's phone number
3. that I use my middle name Andy instead of my first name

...and this fucker knew these things.

time to get that CCW...

 

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 48-76, 38.71%, +5.405 units
Spreads: 55-44-7, 51.89%, +30.124 units