NBA ML Dogs 11.20 macdamn, redbearde, et al...

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 17-26, 41%, +3.735 units.
had I played spreads, 23-20, +1 units.

Had a crappy day on Saturday. Moving on.

Dallas had a day off yesterday, and they should beat the Bobcats today. TOMORROW, Dallas will be

Away, Home, Off, Away, Home

vs a well-rested (2 days off) Washington. This is a big chance for Washington to get a road win TOMORROW. If the Mavs win yet again tonight, that'll be 6 wins in a row, and I wouldn't be all that shocked to see the Mavs favored by a decent amount at home. We shall see.

Both the Rockets and Knicks had yesterday off.

In their last 4 games, the knicks have played more than respectably. They won 2, and they lost against the Cavs (by 6) and against Boston (by 4). The 4.5 points may be extremely valuable here as opposed to the ML. What I do depends on that number, but I'll probably bey the bockers here today.

Again, TOMORROW the Grizz will be

home, away, open, home, away

at WELL-rested Cleveland before 2 days off. Not sure they can make this line high enough. as eames might say...'an_horse'

Toronto/Utah. Raptors won't perform in Utah as well as Phoenix. End of regulation in that game, it was 106-106. 212 would be right if Toronto could manage 4 quality quarters. Not believing it. BAR is smarter than me. I'm on the under with him.

New Jersey at Seattle

NJ had a long tough week ending in a 68 point effort against PORTLAND. I expect to not be on this game. By the time the ML comes out, I expect very limited value...I do think the NETs will come with hard defense and an attempt at redeeming themselves after Saturday's comeplete ASS play...which I think them for...Under came easy...

Spurs at Portland

Spurs are B2B, 3rd in 4, and 5th in 7. Progression starting last Tuesday is

Away (Houston), Home (L against Charlotte), open, Home(W Chicago), open, Home (W Sacramento), Away

at Rested Portland

Portland is at +7. Depending on the number, I will probably be on the Portland ML tonight.

Phoenix @ Golden State.

Won't be any value in a ML play here. Might be a good spot for an over (number depending, obviously). Both teams should score well over 100. If you like offense, watch this game.

and again.....'an_horse'

So I will likely play the

Knicks ML
Trailblazers ML

as a side note, I am also on the Giants ML tonight. So you should consider a Strong Play on the Jags tonight.

 

[macdamn]

ML dog record: 15-25 +0.52 units

Redbearde, the MLs are out at Pinny.

I just jumped on Portland +270.

Tough spot for the Spurs on b2b games on the road.

 

[macdamn]

BTW, I think you're right that tomorrow will be a great spot for the Wiz.
Good luck man.:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Knicks +160
Nets +121
Trailblazers +270

Thanks for the heads up, mac.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I like the plays. Hope people keep jumping on the Sonics now that Jefferson is officially out so I can get a better ML.
Even though you said that you don't see value in the GSW/Phoenix game, it was -2 GSW and now +2 so if it keeps rising I may play the GSW ML.

 

[redbearde]

I hadn't see a number when I aid that. I may well be on GSW ML with you...

 

[SportsNut]

I would suggest Memphis as a ML play...

Dont like NJ here there schedule has been brutal and now lost Robinson as well. Sonics benefit IMO from being home(basically) for a week. hate NJ off a bad loss though looking for revenge (probably no play)

Hate the Blazers here as I think its to cheap see AL's thread for as why.

Kinda like NY but just cant count on them.

I think the memphis game will be ugly. Orlando is 2-2 away with a close win @ Boston where they were only -1. mem has teh size to lean on Howard and like Atkins being pushed in to the starting lineup. Mem has won 7 of 8 past 3 years vs ORL. Grizz played Dal and Hos as +4.5 and +5 dogs so I dont see ORL in the same conversation as those 2 . Probably think game should be closer to -1. Basically ORL is a poor FT showing team as well which makes them even riskier away. GL

 

[tuck321]

Orlando seems to have very limited defense but after the licking Griz have put on the last 3 encounters have to think they will score and in bounceback from second game with Dallas so will Griz. 186 total seems low to me. GL

 

[SportsNut]

If they can contain Howard then Orlando has scored 92 or less 3x in 4 away games. They dont shoot 3's or FT's particularily well. One thing I will say is they have enough depth offensively where someone else new steps it up every nite. Mem at hom ws 89-89 with NYK in regulation , 92-83 vs Cha and 86-80 with Hous. SO the Dallas agme was the 1st high scoring agme and alot had to dow ith 70 Fts and 50% shootinf from the floor. Which wil be tough to duplicate with FGA of 41 and 44%.. I think FT attempts will decide if this goes over...

I would expect a game in the 80's and low 90's here but not certain

 

[eames]

A note About CLEVELAND Tomorrow:

ROAD GAME Then TWO DAYS REST Then HOME FAVE.

in my world That spells ARGH.

so Although i will indeed Go Against memphis

i would like The cavs A LOT more if They werent in The spot Theyre in:

For what its worth.

Good luck with Tonights session hombre.



'an_horse'

 

[redbearde]

thanks for the heads up guys.

all thoughtful posts help.

eames, how does 2 days rest equal a bad thing (argh!)...?

 

[redbearde]

If they can contain Howard then Orlando has scored 92 or less 3x in 4 away games. They dont shoot 3's or FT's particularily well. One thing I will say is they have enough depth offensively where someone else new steps it up every nite. Mem at hom ws 89-89 with NYK in regulation , 92-83 vs Cha and 86-80 with Hous. SO the Dallas agme was the 1st high scoring agme and alot had to dow ith 70 Fts and 50% shootinf from the floor. Which wil be tough to duplicate with FGA of 41 and 44%.. I think FT attempts will decide if this goes over...

I would expect a game in the 80's and low 90's here but not certain

SN,
doesn't not having Gasol make it harder to contain Howard?

in ny case, I'll look at this one a bit more.

 

[eames]

imo That spot might Generally Allow For more LAZINESS And COMPLACENCY Than Any other.



'an_horse'

 

[DuY!]

GL nets ML might be a good bet

 

[SportsNut]

I am just not trusting of the NYK probably would play NYK ML or pass.

In reference to losing Gasol clearly the answer is yes since he is a 7 footer. I would hope that having four 6'9 post players helps though in Swift , Warrick , Lawrence Roberts and Rudy Yag.

Howard has been so-so offensively on the road 11 , 17 , 21 and 17 pts. FT line 16 of 29 and 25 of 41 from the floor and think he avg just 10 ppg vs MEM is his career but didnt look deep enough.

Grizz are certainly risky but I believe those are the MLs that hit more often...when you have to read bewteen the lines alittle..GL

 

[SportsNut]

Also if you look at the game logs lastyear although it was early Howard was invisible twice vs the Grizz. Think 11 boards combined in2 games thats like a good Half for him usually.(16 pts at home and 9 pts away)

A quirky stat this year in games on zero or 1 day rest(8 games) he avgs 13.5 ppg on others (2 +days rest)(2 games) he avgs 25.5...