NBA ML dogs 1.5

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 49-86, 36.3%, -2.645 units
Spreads: 62-50-7, 52.1%, +32.764 units

Grizz -7.5 (+120) 2 units
Bucks -5 (+116) 2 units

Obviously I'm not a fan of the Celtics or the Cavs tomorrow for ML dogs.

However.

I like the

Mavs
Jazz
Knicks
Nuggets

Dallas should have value with the B2B, and with the depth the Mavs have, I'm not at all concerned about fatigue. Great win tonight. Spurs mystique at home and off of losses hasn't been as stunning this year. This slow down shit they've moved toward will not work against the hot-shooting Mavs. It'll have to speed up, and I'm not so sure the Spurs can manage that. I would expect the Spurs to do better than 35% from the field this time...but if they do this slow down shit, you can forget about the great free-flowing percentages we saw early on from these guys. Not sure why they're changing out of what worked. May not play this if I don't get within a quarter of 2:1...at least.

I think Utah is the better team. If T-mac is GREAT instead of super-human, then the Jazz should do well. This may be a very low scoring game. Again, depends on how Fucking Incredible McGrady is. I want significant value, though, so if it's essentially a pick, I'm not going to play this. T Mac may very well have another SuperMac day...

I will likely play the Knicks. New York should be able to move the ball and score on the sonics' lesser of defenses...and if the Knicks can out rebound the sonics by 10 (especially offensive glass), then there's no reason at all that the Knicks wouldn't be in this game. I mean, Francis is out...and that's good. NYK outrebounds everyone, Seattle outrebounds no one. Seattle also allows a relatively high shooting percentage. Knicks should be competitive. ...as long as Starbury isn't shaving points.

I am honestly unclear on why Denver is so short. What, would they be a pickem in Colorado? Also, if AI or Karl has been paying attention, Iverson will have a FUCKLOT of assists tomorrow. 15ish. The lakers haven't defended the pick and roll the last few games, and it should work all fucking night for the Nuggs. Not to mention that stumpy boykins is getting 25pts or so per game since AI got there. I will definitely have this ML, especially off the kobes OT win tonight.

I will also VERY likely be on DD home chalk for the Suns against the Heat jr varsity squad. I am a chalky square motherfucker. What can I say?

I will be very interested to see what they do with Chicago/New Jersey and Toronto/Atlanta.
 
Zo has the flu. is probable at Phoenix.
Posey & Walker expected to miss.
Wade questionable. Will worry about him when he actually shows up with a working wrist. Til then, he'll just have to get his wife to wank him.
Shaq is obviously still out, and even if he wasn't I wouldn't be concerned.
Junior Varsity ought to have a tough time...

Quentin richardson is probable at Seattle.

keeeeeeen...
 
Nene Hilario upgraded to probable for friday at the Lakers.

....really? .....izzat a bad thing?
 
You might see -20 in Pho..only Wade abot -17 /-17.5 the fat guys could take it to -19 IMO..

I agree why is LAL so short? Probably has to do with them being off an OT game...game should be at least 2 pts higher..

okay bedtime..
 
The Grizz are starting to bring it back to the court a little bit, and Boston playing acceptionally alright but without Pierce, that leaves Wally as a top scorer who Mike Miller can match. Giving Memphis Gasol to have a night. Milwuakee looks good here as well, you must of sold some points, I'm the type who will usually buy before selling.

Pheonix will probably come with a high price tag, will be fun to see what it is.

Good Luck with them all, like Dallas at the ML
 
Yeah, I'm expecting a high price tag for phoenix. I'm also expecting 100+ out of phoenix and less than 80 for the miami JVs. If it really is 20, then I guess I won't play it...

and I almost always sell points. I know my ability, and I like to lose less when I lose as much as win more when I win. It makes a difference over the season...I lost a grand total of ONE game because of it in CFB this year (out of over 200). hitting 55% at -115 or higher isn't acceptable to me. So I do the reverse.
 
GL with the plays redbearde, thinking I may join you on the Knicks ML... its at +183 though was hoping for a little better.
 
I was pretty close -18...guess I thought Walker and Posey might be worth an hook or full point more ....

Red...I applaud you selling points by the way...BOL
 
u still like the Jazz at +140 even though they cant guard the three and the rockets will be shootin threes all night?
 
Renew, I was hoping for more as well.

Suns -18 (-104) 2 units

Mavericks +225
Nuggets +228
Bobcats +370
Jazz +137

I will still likely play the Knicks, but I'm waiting on the line.

and methinks that'll be all tonight...

Supersav, yes I do. I think the Jazz is the better team.

DuY!, thanks bro! GL tonight!

The Farm, Good luck buddy. Let's do this.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Big boards are perfect for ML dogs.

Clippers, Hawks, Sixers, Nuggets are the best bets.

GL!
Click to expand...

What do you mean best bets? Do you think these are the most likely to win, or do you think these yield the best risk/reward ratios?
 
I now have 8 wagers today. Now, sure there are a lot of games up, but I think 8 wagers is fucking plenty...

GL tonight gentlemen.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Someone in the forum mentioned Arenas' party tonight...Would be skeptical of playing Wiz...Not kidding either.
Click to expand...

In my opinion, there's plenty of reason to not play either of these teams.

:shake:

regarding the bobkitties, DON'T YOU WORRY about Wallace.

McInnis is coming in to make everything better. And yes, I am kidding.

'an_horse'
 
redbearde said:
What do you mean best bets? Do you think these are the most likely to win, or do you think these yield the best risk/reward ratios?
Click to expand...

I believe these are the overall best ML dog plays, as far as value or winning rate.

GL
 
I think this year has a hell of a lot of parody. More than previous years. Which is why I've limited my spread plays. I think anytime you can get can get +255 vs. a 13-19 team (ATL-Torn), then that warrants a value play.

As far as the Clips, they are starting to heat up. I think they should've won that game in ORLANDO. I really think the Wiz dont care much about this game with the party in order.

Sixers got embarassed their last home game vs. Minny. Winning tonight would actually make this tough West road trip successful IMO. And they are facing a .500 Minny team!

Nuggets catch Lakers off an emotionally draining OT game. AI always loves to play against Kobe. This is pure value at 2:1 in a game that's a toss up.
 
No Raja Bell tonight. Not a big loss, but it hurts the depth a bit trying to cover 18.
 
thank you sir. I'm leaning on the Hawks myself, but gotdamn...they've been utter ass lately. ...and not in a good way.

fwiw......the word you seek is parity. Parody is what Team America World Police was...
 
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/168253

No relief yet for shorthanded Raptors
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<!-- PUBLISH DATE -->January 05, 2007
<!-- AUTHOR 1 -->Doug Smith
<!-- CREDIT 1-->Sports Reporter
<!-- ARTICLE CONTENT-->
Someday, the Raptors will have a full complement of starting players but it doesn't look like it's going to be today.
T.J. Ford and Jorge Garbajosa are both expected to miss tonight's game against the Atlanta Hawks, once again forcing coach Sam Mitchell to mix and match his rotation.
A sprained right ankle has kept Ford on the sidelines for two games already, Garbajosa has missed one with a strained right calf and team officials said after this morning's shootaround it's doubtful either will be available tonight.
That would put Jose Calderon back in the role of starting point guard while Joey Graham continues at small forward – a spot Garbajosa is sure to take once he's healthy.
 
Raps still got Bosh and they still got Barny. 2 guys who present HUGE mismatches for the Hawks un-athletic bigs.

But I think you gotta ask yourself, who is ATLANTA to be laying 7 to ANYONE.
 
JPicks said:
No Raja Bell tonight. Not a big loss, but it hurts the depth a bit trying to cover 18.
Click to expand...

I'm hoping for a layup scrimmage for the suns and Amare making them stay outside (I'm also hoping Zo is still somewhat flu-ridden but playing nonetheless...Raja Bell is a significant loss in my mind.

I still think they will win by 25. Or more. If the Suns manage some defense, they might hold the Heat under 75. Wouldn't be surprised to see 55-60 Phoenix shots taken.

It's a well-intentioned crap shoot.

GL tonight, bro.
 
Supersav...

I personally don't play ML dogs much. But when I do, I'll take 1 or 2 dogs and throw them in a ML parlay with the best favorite I see on the board. And I'll throw 1/2 unit on it and try to get 10-1 on better.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Raps still got Bosh and they still got Barny. 2 guys who present HUGE mismatches for the Hawks un-athletic bigs.

But I think you gotta ask yourself, who is ATLANTA to be laying 7 to ANYONE.
Click to expand...

no shit. That's why Toronto is laying 7 to Atlanta.
 
Supersav said:
meant to ask u guys how much u bet on these heavy ml's? unit?
Click to expand...

my ML dog unit is 80% of my spread unit. It worked out that way because last year I was betting 10% of what I bet this year on MLs.

If you want an actual number, I'm not telling you in open forums like this. And I don't think it really matters.
 
parity and parody are damn near homonyms and they mean very different things, but could be used in some very similar situations. So I wanted to clarify my understanding, I suppose.

The Heat, for instance, are a Parody of a basketball team this year.
 
damn it redbearde. I intentionally have to check what I'm writing in my threads in the event that you make look at them. Once I saw you are an English professor of sorts everything changed. I'm sure there are grammatical errors in this post as well as many other posts of mine. I really knew you were good at this stuff when I read "the jazz is". I'm quite nervous around here now.
 
lol

I am good at it, but I won't give folks shit very often. They used to teach people to read with the see-say method. When i was coming up, they taught us to recognize how long a word is, what the first and last letters are, and then given the context to essentially guess at what the word is. so when writing, spelling is of paramount importance. The difference between fone and phone is significant.

Now they teach with phonics. So people learn by ear. homonyms like

hour, our, are, etc......are commonly interchanged by the semi-educated. There, their, and they're is just hopeless........as is your and you're. Parody and parity is one switch that I hadn't seen before, so it stood out. GJ BeLIEve!

Anyway, there's no need to be nervous.

:shake:
 
regarding minny and philly........eames had the following to say:

eames said:
MILLER. CARNEY. IGLOO. JOE SMITH. DALEMBERT.


i like That phil Team EXPONENTIALLY more without PRACTICE?! And TIMEOUT!! in The lineup...
Click to expand...

LOL.....ain't it the truth?
 
hey i'm going to post a thread about some ML parlays in a few minutes. wouldn't mind if you added your thoughts since you're the ML expert
 
I'm no expert. If you haven't noticed, I'm currently down a few units on ML dogs...but I'm always available to add my opinion.
 
Redbearde, think Knicks can handle seattle ML wise. Seattle tends to turn the ball over quite a bit, and not even passing Turnovers. Last game I watched it was traveling, dribbling off own foot, charging, bricks galore. It seems the way they would like to play is playground.

"Hey I'll shoot and if I miss, go clean up my garbage...okay?"

Isn't there game reminescent of that style?
 
Well I have to agree with you in that the Suns game should get real ugly. In regards to Raja Bell absence while its a loss it substitutes a guy who actually likes playing defense for two guys Barbosa and Jones who love to shoot /chuck..

I also know that you were on the Suns the last time these teams met in Miami....and we all know Suns smoked them for 3 quarters before letting them back in it.....I am starting think an over may be warranted though. What was up with 87 shots last game? Only cause I think Suns can cover and I think Miami could crack 90.....maybe 1st Half over...nothing that has value just an opinion play..

The heat losing by thirty really wouldnt suprise me...nor should it since they lost in Orl by wjat 29? This is also basically a rematch of the 1st meeting as Wade was out , Walker played 3 minutes and while Posey actualy logged 26 minutes he attempted 5 shots , finishing with 6 points..

I mean does one really expect the same effort here from PHO that you did after a long successful road trip in the 1st meeting and do you really expect only 9 Heat turnovers?? My call is Robert Hite's 1st career 20 pt game!! H ewill be the beneficary of the short bench...

BOL Red!
 
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