NBA ML dogs 1.29

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 62-106, 36.9%, +8.01 units
Spreads: 98-99-11, 47.12%, +6.76 units

Initially I thought today would present no opportunities for me at all. I figured a day off would be good for me anyway. But the Suns -7 has now plummeted to -5. Any lower, and I'll feel compelled to play it just to ride out this incredible run they're on. When I saw -7, I thought I might consider a flyer at Twolves 3:1, but at -5 there's no way in hell there'll be value on the Minny ML. At just over 2:1, I say forget about it. But there's a fucklot of money on Minnesota waiting to be filled STILL...at +5...

What, are people playing...that the Suns will be tired? Come on...

the Bobcats are at almost 6:1....

Anyone want to consider them playing the Nuggets? I'm thinking neither team will bother with much defense. I doubt the kitties will be able to stop the Nugs, and I doubt the nugs will bother to stop the kitties (again).

No bets for me yet...just viewing the landscape as they might say...

'an_horse'

 

[smh212]

I made the Nuggets -8.5, so looking at the Bobcats here off a horrible game in Golden State. One thing you can say about Charlotte is that they generally compete....who is Denver to being laying 11 to anyone right now?

I don't think the Suns ever get tired...LOL.

 

[redbearde]

I was thinking in terms of playing the over in both Memphis and Altitude.

I think the Kings and Kitties are likely to compete this evening. But I like the OVER style better than the dog points style.....

 

[smh212]

I was thinking in terms of playing the over in both Memphis and Altitude.

I think the Kings and Kitties are likely to compete this evening. But I like the OVER style better than the dog points style.....

I agree that both are going to compete. Sacto now -1. I made Memphis -1....I think the line lies somewhere in the middle...LOL.

Denver is talking about "learning to play defense", but with AI on the court, that ain't gonna happen. Memphis has given up on defense, and you know the KINGS are pissed.

 

[TheShadyNFL]

I also see a tonm of people (many who I like and some who I rarely agree with) taking the twolves tonight, just could be enough sharps playing on this game to give the public another PHX winner

 

[redbearde]

I agree that both are going to compete. Sacto now -1. I made Memphis -1....I think the line lies somewhere in the middle...LOL.

Denver is talking about "learning to play defense", but with AI on the court, that ain't gonna happen. Memphis has given up on defense, and you know the KINGS are pissed.

:36_11_6:

Denver's defense...

How do you play defense against memphis who likes to throw up 100+ shots per game? Shot clock? What shot clock? Me no need no steeeenkin shotclock!

:36_11_6:

 

[redbearde]

I also see a tonm of people (many who I like and some who I rarely agree with) taking the twolves tonight, just could be enough sharps playing on this game to give the public another PHX winner

We've been discussing this in another thread.

What does the concept of "sharps playing this game" have to do with "giving the public" another "phoenix winner"......?

 

[redbearde]

Bobcats @ Nuggets Over 213 (-104)

Kings @ Grizzlies Over 220.5 (-110)

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Like the trail blazers...The young guys are starting to come on.

 

[redbearde]

Like the trail blazers...The young guys are starting to come on.

they'll have to have one helluva bounceback...even against the Hornets. ...who have actually been playing pretty darned well recently.

 

[TheShadyNFL]

We've been discussing this in another thread.

What does the concept of "sharps playing this game" have to do with "giving the public" another "phoenix winner"......?

the concept being we know the public usually loses but they sometimes win. when do they sometimes win? I think when enough money is on the other side to warrant even action on tyhe game, or at more even than we are seeing online percentage wise.

public bets phx nearly every game and "sharp" betters look for good spots to go against them, one spot would be if a line seems too low or reverse line movent is happening. what ive seen this year is reverse line moves working much better in ncaa than nba. equalling less sharp action in those particular ncaa games and the public going down.

when phx plays at this level they are like the IND colts of recent years, you know the public will bet them every game but you also know the colts wont lose every game ats, gotta know when to pick the spots. granted in not betting basketball nearly as long as I have been football so what do I know just trying to answer your question, if there is anything else I can explain better let me know

 

[redbearde]

Colts were 8-8 ATS this year.

How do you know the public is betting on phoenix?
How do you know sharps are betting on minnesota?

What indicators are you using? And why do they suggest to you that Minnesota will likely win?

 

[TheShadyNFL]

tonight I dont think min will win, min sucks the line should be higher. normally I would bet min here but not tonight.

the sharp play is always against the norm or the obvious play. PHX wins and covers alot therefore public players will bet on them every game they play. there is always a mismatch and they "should" probably cover almost every game they play taht isnt against a team close to their level of play. thats what 3? 4 teams that could hang w/ phx on any given night?

just like the colts should cover against houston miami tenessee twice dallas buf and the jets, if all those games were legitimate the colts would have covered every single time they played barring any major injuries.

if you dont believe there is a possibility of vegas ahaving influence over games then this conversation isnt going to have an end but thats how I majke money betting on football and trying to apply the same or similar thoeries to this sport

 

[redbearde]

okay, so your theory is that Vegas has influence over the outcome of the games?

 

[TheShadyNFL]

okay, so your theory is that Vegas has influence over the outcome of the games?

have you never seen a fixed game? I see them all teh time in the NFL for the past 11 years I have been looking for it. look for the fix and you will see it lol.

Im a conspiracy theorist I know but Im not the only one who bets w/ vegas I know that

 

[redbearde]

Suns -4.5 (-110)

I don't understand the move, but I'll take it.

:beer:

 

[TheShadyNFL]

Im also not trying to say it will work as well in basketball as it does football because there isnt as much action on basketball games every day and football is only a couple days a week. but the way I bet since posting online in NFL has got me 68% 2 years ago and 58% this year som Im not going to change anytime soon. you can make money betting the public way too imo. it just got sickening for me to lose a bet that had no chance of losing so I learned the hard way to bet on the side that has little chance of winning and they somehow pull out a win.

 

[redbearde]

have you never seen a fixed game? I see them all teh time in the NFL for the past 11 years I have been looking for it. look for the fix and you will see it lol.

Im a conspiracy theorist I know but Im not the only one who bets w/ vegas I know that

I'll say this...I've seen some shady shit in the MAC in college football...

I take advantage of it by betting ML dogs...

 

[Troutman]

Suns -4.5 (-110)

I don't understand the move, but I'll take it.

:beer:

Seems like value to me...KG cant do it all....The suns can keep scoring throughout the whole game Minny hits streaks throughout the game, normally in the 4th quarter....

 

[redbearde]

Thanks Troutman. GL to us!

Driver makes a very good argument for the Magic finally getting their asses motivated.

Magic -4 (+103)

 

[smh212]

Well, I bet the TWOLVES +5.5, -110....it popped as a fade on SI. Maybe the game lands on 5 and we both cash.

That being said, we both did a good job. You got an excellent number to back Phx with and I got an excellent number to back Minny with....in the end that's all that really matters.

GET THOSE OVERS!

 

[redbearde]

GL to us smh!

but I have no intention of fucking George Bush...

 

[TheShadyNFL]

GL luck w/ PHX I liek em but only enough to throw them in a small parlay, no straight nba wagers tonight. so much action on that game according to SI, 20,000 wagers on that game and no other has more than 11,000 yet, so I will be happy enough if they help the parlay

 

[redbearde]

KG can't miss and the Twolves shoot 59% on the night. Even though the Nugs & Kitties score 119 in the 1H, they manage a whopping 87 in the 2H. Some of those misses absolutely make me sick.

Orlando looks like they've given up on the season. The Magic defense looks like someone using a colander as a bucket.

I was right. Shouda taken the day off.

ML dogs: 62-106, 36.9%, +8.01 units
Spreads: 99-102-11, 46.7%, +4.65 units

Holy shit. Carter just hit an uncontested 35ft 3pter to win that game.

WTF is with the NETS covering while Short-fucking-handed?????

crazy stuff.