NBA Finals

We will see who is right but I believe this line is off by about a hundred bucks or so. The LAkers have no business being favored to win this.

I have no idea who will win but all these people thinking the Lakers win it in 4 or 5 are likely out to lunch.

The Celtics steam rolled the WEst all season long. They didn't sweep the Texas Triangle by accident. Watch, Boston will slow down Kobe just like they did to LeBron and the rest of the Lakers won't be able to beat them. I think Boston is slightly the better team but home court makes them even better.

Good luck everyone but there is no chance on earth I would lay -200 on the Lakers to win the NBA finals.
 
The line is off... almost trying to keep any Laker homers away from pounding them. I do believe though that the majority of series action will be done right out of Vegas. Vegas pretty much being a quick drive from LA and a just miles from other spots in California. They will be the play by everyone out on the west coast who just watched them blast through the big bad west.

I don't understand it either handy. I would think this line should be -110 or pick'em given the Lakers recent success.
 
Please guys try to understand - bookies have done excellent job on setting the line. If LAL would be around -115 or somewhere there around they would be pounded heavily and there would be some huge risk for them out there as well. At the moment bookies will get a balanced book and that is what they are living for. Plus, add the fact that it might be pretty likely that bookies got some outright risks on Lakers before playoffs began, so they might be securing themselves against any extra money coming that way as well.

It is totally uncalled for to say that this is ridiculous line and that it makes no sense at all. It makes sense since there are far more factors that oddscompilers have to account for when setting odds.
 
You can make that case about anything. However, 95% of the time the books know who most are likely to bet before posting the number. They would still get heavy Lakers money if they threw out -300. If people think LA is going to win then they will still bet them and a -300 may actually add to their confidence.

I have have a hard time believing the books are getting enough Celtic money to balance their books. Of course they don't need even action to offset a -200 price but I still don't think they're getting it and that's why the number has spiked all week.

If this series comes back to Boston LA up 3-2. What do you think the adjusted line will be? They shouldn't be more than about -250. Reason being the Celts odds to win both those games would net you about +200 (two team parlay on them to win both games 6 and 7) That's why this line is wrong. I know that's not the number they would post but if you know how to calculate true parlay odds you would know that LA to win the series up 3-2 heading to Boston is only worth -250.


I have Boston probably -135 to -140 in both games 6 and 7. A two team parlay at those odds is +197 or -240 or -250 on the chalk. So Boston's odds are only +200 down 3-2 because they're chalk in game 6 and 7. Anyone want to tell me my math is wrong now?

All you folks who believe this series line is right are out to lunch. IF the line is right then LA needs to be favored in the games in Boston. Until that happens this number is a laughing matter.
 
Stop being so ignorant about one thing - bookies do their homework.

The prices might look wrong, but it is not - there is simply some VALUE and nothing more when it comes to betting Celts. Bookies are more than happy to get some money on Celts because they have it already on Lakers. So there is no reason to go out and say that the prices are wrong when all that is out there is directed by market and not by some dude shouting with no purpose that prices are wrong.

And for everyone's information - Lakers do not need to be favored in any game in Boston to be favored in series. Lakers are given more chance to beat Boston in any away game then Celts will get in any game in LA. Boston has been more than questionable in away games and that is the main reason what drives this price. I have not had chance to run variations, but if you would have 55% for every Boston game and 64% for every Lakers game (meaning home games) then it most probably tell that Lakers will be favorites in the series based on variations alone. And after that it is adjusted for market perception and most likely previous risks from outright betting. That is what led to Celts being +145 to start with and it even went up to +170.

You can continue your way about price being ridiculous, stupid and any other word you want to use for it, but the only thing you are basing this on is simply team strength. Books are happy to sell Celts and you can take them and both sides win since you get the nice price on Celts and bookies will be happy to balance out the risk they have on Lakers.

When it comes to LAL coming back to BOS with 3-2 lead. Boston will be -120 to -125 I believe since it will be adjusted price for public going for Lakers once again. And then if BOS wins G6 the price will be something like -130 or -135 for G7 on Celts. So I guess you would be looking at something like +220 or maybe even more for Celts to win series after G5.
 
someone already said this, but i'll repeat. Handy understands that the books put the line like this so they can get even action on both sides. Its not wrong for the books. Its wrong for people betting LA becuase the price is not a good indication of the actually outcome of the series. He feels that the C's have a better chance +170 to win the series which makes the line wrong in his eyes.
 
Well again 99% of gamblers are idiots. The house is well aware of their ignorance and simply preys on them. To say the Lakers price is fair at -200 is completely out of touch. If that were the case then what will the series price be if LA is up 3-2 heading into game 6 at Boston?

CAn someone answer that for me?
 
None of you so called chalk line experts can answer my question?

LEt me guess, you know the Handy man is right and the only thing to do is run and hide.
 
I agree, handy. In my lifetime (and I turn 24 Saturday), I don't know if I will ever see again a series price of nearly 2-to-1 on the team that does not have homecourt advantage. I think LA wins the series in 6 or 7, but there is "value" by betting Boston in the series.
 
Anyone who knows anything about this line knows it's simply a case of the books taking advantage of the shit head gambler on a crooked series line.

I have no idea who wins but the line tells you not to bet the Lakers because it's too expensive.
 
The absolute most rediculous series price I've ever bet into.

Anyone of you still think the Lakers should've been favored to win the series without home court advantage?
 
Blue_Chip said:
I agree, handy. In my lifetime (and I turn 24 Saturday), I don't know if I will ever see again a series price of nearly 2-to-1 on the team that does not have homecourt advantage. I think LA wins the series in 6 or 7, but there is "value" by betting Boston in the series.
Click to expand...

jazz were -240 to the rockets in R1 TY
 
I actually don't think LA wins this series. They almost have to win game 2 or they're in some major trouble despite going home for 3,4 and 5. They won't win all three at home. Mark that one down. It's too hard to win three in a row at home in the Finals. It's only been done once in over 20 years of this format. It also never should've happened because the Mavs simply collapsed the year the Heat did it.

Well get out your LAker pom poms and get ready to hand your cash to the man if you're on LA. IT's just nothing more than a bad number all the way. I'm seeing Boston now around even money up a game to win it all? I'm sorry that's a better bet than +160 prior to the series. Gamblers are idiots and will now think LA is a better deal at around -115.

Fools!!
 
depends on what happens game 2 cap. if lakers win and i think they dont but if they do what will the series line be. probably round the same 160 area
 
Absolutely the C's still being underdog to win series up 1-0 is a better bet than at +160 before it started. When was the last time the team with home court was underdog to win the series, favored in their home games and still underdog after game 1? I can't ever remember that happening.

The problem with betting this right now is the status of Paul Pierce. PErhaps that's why the line is what it is but my best guess is LA is going to need to win 2 games in Boston in order to win this series.

We shall see but if Pierce plays I'm still sticking with Boston in 6.
 
When was the last time the team with home court was underdog to win the series, favored in their home games and still underdog after game 1?
Click to expand...

And remember...

Historically, teams that win game one in a best-of-seven series, win the series 86% of the time.
 
I'm new here, but my one suggestion in my many years of gambling is to urge all of you to take LA with the ML in Game 2. They will be slight underdogs again, but wouldn't be surprised if the line lowered a bit. Either way, I have a strong feeling Kobe doesn't leave without a win in game 2.
 
Moneyline,

I have a feeling that's a really stupid bet. We're talking about the team with the best record playing at home at a pick em price and you're suggesting the road team? That just sounds wrong. Maybe LA wins but now they're not getting anything more than a pt. on the road in Boston. That just sounds like a really bad bet.
 
handy said:
Moneyline,

I have a feeling that's a really stupid bet. We're talking about the team with the best record playing at home at a pick em price and you're suggesting the road team? That just sounds wrong. Maybe LA wins but now they're not getting anything more than a pt. on the road in Boston. That just sounds like a really bad bet.
Click to expand...

yeah I expected atleast +150 on the ML now I get -110 yay
 
It's all speculation that Pierce isn't playing. That's it, only a fool bets LA on the road getting no points at Boston.
 
Throwback,

Your greatest weakness is you can't separate yourself from being a Lakers fan.

No one will ever know what team is my home team in any sport. In fact I look at it as I don't have one.

LA may very well still win this series but buying them on the road essentially to win with no room for error just makes no sense.
 
Handy, I took the time to read the whole thread, and realized A. you are a very intelligent individual and B. you are a very intelligent gambler, but at the same time, my best asset was the ability to read the line and use logic. Game 2 opened up at -2.5 at most books, and eventually made it self down to -1, which is basically a PK, if game 1 started at a -3 and only wavered down to -2.5, logically what does that tell you, that the "genious" oddmakers expect the Lakers to win Game 2 in Boston, and as much as I disagree with the oddsmakers, this time I believe they are correct with the Lakers. Would it be incredibly assanine for the Lakers to be favored in Boston, yes, but are they, no. This game will stay at -1 I believe, which still entices people to bite on Boston, why not they just beat the Lakers by 10, and Paul Pierce came back and lit it up while hurt. Most of the time I don't use these scenarios to gamble, but one player allows me to do so, Kobe Bryant. After the poor performance, to his standards, I expect 34-36 points from him, and a better showing from Gasol and Odom. BTW I agree with you the series price is out of this world, but for Game 2 they have it just right.
 
Being a laker fan is my greatest weakness in this series as well. All I see and all my friends see is a Laker Victory because we all have faith in Kobe. Handy is right in the fact that is blind faith. This game 2 has no value for a side. Why take a road chalk team vs the best home team. Thanks for the advice.
 
Moneyline_Monster said:
Would it be incredibly assanine for the Lakers to be favored in Boston, yes, but are they, no.
Click to expand...


Currently at Matchbook



<TABLE class=binTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 1px" vAlign=center><TABLE class=inBinTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-runner vAlign=bottom width=142>Los Angeles (L)


</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds-best id=bro-371436-w-1>-112</TD><TD class=mbCss-stake-best id=brs-371436-w-1>$2,240 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds id=bro-371436-w-2>-116</TD><TD class=mbCss-stake id=brs-371436-w-2>$2,900</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



</TD><TD align=middle width=3>


</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds id=bro-371436-w-3>-120</TD><TD class=mbCss-stake id=brs-371436-w-3>$6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right colSpan=2>


</TD></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 1px"><TABLE class=inBinTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-runner vAlign=top width=142>Boston


</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds-best id=bro-371437-w-1>+110</TD><TD class=mbCss-stake-best id=brs-371437-w-1>$2,449 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds id=bro-371437-w-2>+104</TD><TD class=mbCss-stake id=brs-371437-w-2>$4,832</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



</TD><TD align=middle width=3>


</TD><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbCss-odds id=bro-371437-w-3>-120</TD><TD class=mbCss-stake id=brs-371437-w-3>$6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

And Boston is a dog at home for the first time this year....Unreal...
 
Thank you for that visual Slug, I guess the boys at matchbook really expect LA to take Game 2, making LA a chalk in Boston is nuts, but all it tells me is LA will win game 2.
 
All that makes me want to do is hit the book earlier before it gets ridiculous. Pierce is slightly injured, Kobe Bryant didn't play well, and Lamar Odom looked lost as usual. I expect the Lakers to win Game 2 Lakers 101 Celtics 95

Please believe Mr. Phil Jackson has addressed this team and let them know this game is essential.

Not to mention with Pierce a bit handicapped, I wouldn't be surprised to see a double on KG, since he looked too comfortable game 1.
 
All I know is the Lakers laying chalk in Boston is absolutely insane. Call it what you want but you will feel like the biggest dope in the world if you own LA and your ticket doesn't cash in game 2. I'm as sharp as anyone when it comes to reading the line but this one is just beyond comprehension. I know it opened at Boston -2 and now sits at LA -1. Why? Because LA lost game 1 or Pierce is questionable for game 2? Who knows but neither of them are good reasons to back LA. Boston has shut Kobe down in 3 games this year. Remember, they also shut down LeBron with the exception of game 7. Their moto is let the rest of the team beat them.

I can't wait for the Lakers to go down 0-2. It's going to happen. Boston will be up 3-2 heading back East for game 6. I thought that to begin the series and I'm not wavering from that prediction. LA is in trouble if Pierce plays. If he doesn't all bets are off.

Good luck but don't get sucked into thinking LA is simply the bet because they're chalk in Boston. The line is so wrong.
 
I agree with everything you said Handy. As soon as I witnessed the way Game 1 transpired, I knew MY money would be on LA. Just because of the fact that LA needs to win Game 2. If they didn't and went down 0-2, it would be nearly impossible to win the series, thus my agreement with you on why you started this thread (ridiculous series price). But I just dont see Kobe Bryant having 4 bad games against the Celtics, and expect more from the supporting cast. Think about this as well, I know there will be alot of money on LA because books are making them the chalk, which may seem ridiculous or ingenious since they eliminate the + on the moneyline, I know there are more than a handful of people on this board that would of taken LA ML game 2.
 
handy said:
All I know is the Lakers laying chalk in Boston is absolutely insane. Call it what you want but you will feel like the biggest dope in the world if you own LA and your ticket doesn't cash in game 2. I'm as sharp as anyone when it comes to reading the line but this one is just beyond comprehension. I know it opened at Boston -2 and now sits at LA -1. Why? Because LA lost game 1 or Pierce is questionable for game 2? Who knows but neither of them are good reasons to back LA. Boston has shut Kobe down in 3 games this year. Remember, they also shut down LeBron with the exception of game 7. Their moto is let the rest of the team beat them.

I can't wait for the Lakers to go down 0-2. It's going to happen. Boston will be up 3-2 heading back East for game 6. I thought that to begin the series and I'm not wavering from that prediction. LA is in trouble if Pierce plays. If he doesn't all bets are off.

Good luck but don't get sucked into thinking LA is simply the bet because they're chalk in Boston. The line is so wrong.
Click to expand...

:shake:

I was going to back Boston in game 2, and I honestly liked -2, and then really liked -1.5. But I noticed today they are +1. That is absolutely insane, the best home team int he league the whole season, not just in the playoffs, but the whole mutherfucking season......and there getting points.

The books are going to make a killing in this game.

Handy that highlighted point is what joe blow betting public whoever that may be has not realized.
 
I just hope the Celtics win game 2 and send Lakers fans and bettors scrambling. All the lines set on LA in this series have been rediculous. Let me guess if LA happens to win game 2 they will be 7 pt. favorites in game 3!! If so, I will be all over Boston as long as Pierce is playing.

What a joke. Thank you vegas!!
 
handy said:
Throwback,

Your greatest weakness is you can't separate yourself from being a Lakers fan.

No one will ever know what team is my home team in any sport. In fact I look at it as I don't have one.

LA may very well still win this series but buying them on the road essentially to win with no room for error just makes no sense.
Click to expand...

:shake: you have been known as a Lakers Hater for a while now also so you are Bias also.
 
This line is very much telling us Pierce gonna miss game 2, or he'll be very limited which shouldn't surprise anyone after what his injury looked like and what he said about hearing his knee 'pop'. It's not like we're talking about a finger, but the most complex ligament in our bodies. And do I have to remind you how much Boston's offense (completely) depends on Pierce.
 
Throwback,

Not sure what makes you think I hate the Lakers? I don't, in fact I was a big fan when they were winning all those championships. I loved watched the Jordan era and as well as the Shaq/Kobe dynasty. I just believe the Celtics are the better team when healthy.

I believe Pierce is playing. How effective he will be is another question in itself. Something tells me he will be ok.

I actually like the Lakers, am a big Bryant fan and believe he's clearly the best player in the league. I just don't think they're winning the Championship this year. I think they get it in 2009.
 
Never ever ever ever bet against a major injury in the first game if that player happens to be having a major major injury.

Anyone that has bet for a few years knows this.
 
hey marlo?

On to important things --> Where can I find a link to the pic in your avater? C'mon man help a brother out? :smiley_acbe:
 
I think if you look back at just about every playoff series especially the initila Gmaes 1 and 2 one thing stands out . When the home team wins game 1 they have opened Game 2 cheaper .

Here the 1st game opened -3.5 went down 1 pt before closing at -3 . So they open this -1.5 . Well I have to agree that the bias is much stronger towards LAL here . So the arguement the line is off makes sense by both sides. Boston is cheaper then they should be but as the other poster said its what because the market dictates . So in the sense of value the line is off but because books probably want it to be that way knowing what type of flow they expected to see.

Betting inflated lines are bad in the long run . There is 2 reasons why they are inflated . The first being the market leans strongly one side and they can get away with the higher price effectively taking away some of there risk . The other reason the price is high is because they want people to think oh theres value in that price and make the old value play which almost always loses. Here it does seem that LAL is getting way to much credit , Granted BOS has had issues at times but even though it was early on Boston easily defeated LAL twice H2H . LAL played teams like DEN and Utah who cant stop anyonr in fact LAL owns DEN . Utah actually fought hard they had a couple stretches on teh road that saw close games go to mid teen defecits which they would not recover from. Spurs maybe a different series with the no call but they just didnt have enough offense to beat them and the tough NO series weighed on them when they have limited weapons. Boston had some road troubles early but as said more circumstance cause they crushed teams at hom elike anytother Eastern team even better then LAL has done...

So the line move here is simply IMO based on the feeling this is a must win for LAL . Especially since we already know money the LAL line in teh series and 1st game hard to expect itnot to move again here......

Leaning BOSTON here ...and remember what happened to the line @ UTAH after LAL lost ...opened at like +5 closed at -1.5:cheers:
 
Going to take it slow wait till halftime...try Bos 1st Q and LAL 2nd Q small to see if the trends hold up in these situations...
 
Throwback,

I can't wait to read some more of your brilliant Laker/Celtics dribble. Very few people can challenge me on my point spread knowledge.

Only a fool bet the Lakers tonight on the road laying points in Boston. Only a fool. Yup, if you bet them you're a fool.

Seriously, the Lakers will probably erupt and beat Boston up pretty good in game 3. However, the C's own this team and they will win this series in 6 games at the TD Bank North Garden!!!

Red is watching from beyond the Grave!!
 
handy said:
Throwback,

I can't wait to read some more of your brilliant Laker/Celtics dribble. Very few people can challenge me on my point spread knowledge.

Only a fool bet the Lakers tonight on the road laying points in Boston. Only a fool. Yup, if you bet them you're a fool.

Seriously, the Lakers will probably erupt and beat Boston up pretty good in game 3. However, the C's own this team and they will win this series in 6 games at the TD Bank North Garden!!!

Red is watching from beyond the Grave!!
Click to expand...

LOL... Are you sure about that? is this your 1st BIG win ? don't call anybody a FOOL when they loss their wagers ! I believed You know better than that

:shake:
 
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