NBA Finals Series and Game 1 Selection

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joebrensports

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I just played:

CLE +390 4 units to win NBA Finals

- I predict CLE will win in 5 games.

In game 1 I played:

CLE +7.5 4units

I expect CLE to cover all 5 games, losing Game 2 SU, but covering.

CLE wins this NBA Finals.

GL:shake:
 
You're crazy. They have no chance to beat SA in a series. They will never be able to close the Spurs out in SA and to think the Spurs suddenly lose game after game is rediculous.

Good luck though
 
I guess I am crazy then. This is a 2-3-2 series, and I am picking CLE in 5 so CLE will be home for Game 5.

CLE is just as good defensively and can rebound just as good as the Spurs. Only 1 great NBA player has lost thier first NBA Finals appearance and that was Shaq. Magic won, Bird won, Duncan won, Jordan won, and now LeBron???
 
DET beat LAL in 2004 in their first NBA Finals experience. The argument can be made that LAL was about the same talent level as SA. The following year SA beat LAL and then beatt DET. The argument can be made that SA was hungrier because DET won the previous year.

Give me CLE this year whi I believe is the hungrier team against a team who already won 3 championships.
 
JPicks, we shall see, I can't wait to get the games started.

GL
 
joebrensports said:
DET beat LAL in 2004 in their first NBA Finals experience. The argument can be made that LAL was about the same talent level as SA. The following year SA beat LAL and then beatt DET. The argument can be made that SA was hungrier because DET won the previous year.

Give me CLE this year whi I believe is the hungrier team against a team who already won 3 championships.
Click to expand...


Couldn't diagree more; comparing this San Antonio team with the 2004 Lakers is completely irrevelant. San Antonio is a team that gets along with each other and has no personal agendas. Kobe was intent on not letting Shaq get Finals MVP (again) in '04...the Lakers were not about winning that series.

As far as motivation goes, I think Cleveland is actually surprised to have made it this far. Maybe, maybe not...but the Spurs are DEFINITELY motivated to get the 4th title (one more than the Lakers in this so-called era).

No way SA loses this series...I actually thought the SA ML would be closer to -500 for the series.
 
I think Cavaliers gets a split in the first two games at SA. Taking Cavaliers +7.5 as well and doubling up on the second game if this first one falls short. Regardless, of the outcome, I'll be taking Cavaliers ML and spread on the third game. Quickens Arena should be rocking in the first Finals game for this city in a long while.

Cavaliers gonna fire it up!!!!
 
SA did not play well in Game1 vs DEN because their big 3 was rusty. They didn't play the last couple of regular season games and were rusty. This is the game CLE needs to win.

I believe the Drew Goodens, Gibsons are playing too well at home. 7.5 is ridiculous IMO to give a team who will play just as good defense and rebound with SA. SA was a 6.5 fav in both Games 1 and 2 vs UT.

This is a different CLE over the last 4 games than we saw all year. Their confidence is soaring. DET avg something like 96ppg on the season, and CLE held them way below this total in all but 1 game. I can't wait to get this series started.
 
I just played:

under CLE/SA 181 2 units

Also adding:

1 unit on series CLE/SA +500 so now 5 total
 
cavs did beat the spurs twice in reg season this year...

I don't think they'll win the series, but I didn't think they'd beat the pistons, either.

GL
 
Like the UNDER in game 1 and Cleveland plus the points as well. For the series, gotta lean to SA.
 
I don't know if you remember me joe, however you couldn't be more wrong about this series....take a look at some stats where nobody on the starting 5 has even one game's experience in the NBA finals...Dallas kept on progressing year after year, and then dropped to Miami in the finals...It's extreemly hard to keep on winning at new levels. The western conference is also light years ahead of the East and San Antonio walked over teams The Suns (who Cleveland would NEVER have beat) and Utah (another example of inexperience at a new level. San Antonio is the most seasoned/experienced team that could ever find their way to the NBA finals...the line alone should be a tip off, San Antonio has the best preparation team defense in the league, and whatever happened in the regular season will only serve as motivation for the Spurs in the opener. The Spurs and Tim Duncan are living proof that regular season matchups mean NOTHING!!! But home court is a huge factor, San Antonio's road record is a huge factor, Cleveland's inexperience is a huge factor, The letdown from the EC finals will prove to be a huge factor, along with many others but i'm late for work...lol...good luck to ya, it's a balls to the wall kinda bet
 
Joe,
where do you see the advantage for cleveland? starters, bench, coach, home court ??? veterans?

your so confident in cleveland winning in 5 games. How will they do it?
 
Beanbag, I see several advantages for CLE.

The first advantage I see is the defenses are even, but CLE is a +500 dog in series and + 7.5

The second advantage I see is CLE is peaking at right time.

The third advantage I see is CLE has the best player on the court- KING JAMES.

There are several more advantages but these are just some of them.
 
Bilivy, how can I be wrong on the series if it hasn't even started?
 
Joe, I'd be delighted to hear all the cavs advantages. Please continue. Bowen is a quick little bastard, and he may feel the need to knee King James in the nuts. Then of course Horry could step in there and clobber him......

Peaking is an interesting look......perhaps they've peaked already?

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'd just like to hear all the reasons the Cavs have advantages...
 
I wouldn't say the Cavs have an advantage over the Spurs, much less several.

Perhaps you've noticed ( :D) some of you, that I went on a prolonged break, as you can see it wasn't because of losing in the playoffs, but because I somehow felt the games weren't bettable (for my standards), very small chance I will make a single bet on these finals. I'm looking for serious advantages, not some stretched fan talk here.

I'm a Spurs fan since mid 90s and I could go on and make a preview favoring the Spurs and placing all kinds of bets on them, that would be forcing the issue, I'm an investor. And I don't see Cleveland as a team that can win the finals, not at this point. I will shake your hand Joe if I turn out to be wrong but this Spurs team will have too much on the Cavs.

Pop isn't Flip. Enough said. I won't even go into matchups which are overrated anyway. We're going to see team As team basketball against a team that BASED their game, built their team on team As image.

In this case I just can't see the student outsmarting the teacher.

Spurs in 6.
 
Joe, bill is simply keying in on some cons

- Experience goes to the Spurs.

- Coaching goes to the Spurs.

- Squad depth goes to the Spurs.

- Having to come through the tougher Conference goes to the Spurs


These cons are starting to add up.

And how arent the Spurs peaking at the right time? The fact they didnt sweep Utah means they arent peaking? Seems to me both teams are peaking, so that angle is a wash.

The Cavs may have the best player on the court, but the Spurs have the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and maybe even 5th best. Miami needed the 2 best players on the court to overcome the Mavs greater depth last season (& no small help from the refs, of course).


I'm afraid I dont see things as rosy for the Cavs as you do.
 
BC, you're an impartial side, I would like to hear your thoughts on the Spurs becoming a "dirty team" and was their help by the refs as vast as the one Miami had last year? My perception is surely faltered in this case as I've loved this team since I was a 10 year old kid, and even though I try to be as unbiased when it comes to watching them (betting is a different thing, but simply watching and discussing games in a fan like way), I'm asking you.

Personally I see one game against Denver that was affected by the pro Spur arbitration, unjust suspension of Amare and that ridiculous free throw escapade against Utah (again 1 game).

Am I missing something? Because I've been checking some forums, people are saying how the Spurs got the same amount of help as the Heat did last year, how Manu is nothing but a flopper (one would think his performances against Phoenix would make a difference) and how Bruce gets away with cheap shots all the time. I know he's a rather tough player, sometimes even a bit too tough, but nothing I haven't seen from Raja or Prince.

Needless to say, those same anti Spurs people are blaming "Spurs dirty play" for Nash's broken nose. Enough said I guess. Just wanted to hear what you think.
 
Sorry for stealing away your thread for a sec there Joe, I hope you don't mind. :shake:
 
Satyr, my inability to see live pics means I'm rendered mute in this situation. However, what I saw live of the Pistons/Spurs finals 2 seasons back, I didnt think the Spurs overly dirty. Manu is simply given to typical Argentinian flair, lol.
 
Experience means nothing. Plenty of examples of an experienced team losing to an unexperienced team in a championship. Happens all the time.

Coaching goes to CLE. CLE coach is a defensive guru who coached the Spurs. HUGE edge goes to CLE. No conincidence CLE beat SA twice, just like GS beat DAL like 8 times this year as Don Nelson knows DAL.

Depth goes to CLE. Backup guard for SA is absolute garbage. Vaughn stinks and will give you 0. Barry stinks and is old. Ginobili I believe will be shutdown this series and not play well. Varejao and Gibson will give you more collectively as a pair more than the Spurs bench combined in this series.

I had CLE over DET. All the people who had DET continue to pick against CLE, so please don't question my pick. Question yours.
 
OH I forgot to address the conference thing. The Western conf is deeper no doubt, but SA played DEN-PHO-UT

DEN is an avg team at this point. UT is also an avg team, who has just 2 players- Williams and Boozer. They have no center or other players who step up.

SA beat PHO, but no Stoudeamire or Diaw in Game 5. So even though SA beat PHO, big ??? if they would have really won with PHO at full stregth.

IF it was PHO vs CLE, I would take PHO. I love CLE vs SA, you will all find out soon enough when the games start.
 
Okur doesn't step up?

btw, PHX is a proven non playoff team. I wonder how many years have to pass until people figure out D'Antoni will never take this team all the way.

So PHX over CLE, but CLE over SA?

I have to say I'm puzzled.

Ginobili won't play well. Care to explain, give out some arguments why? It's like I come out and say "Pavlovic won't play well." Same thing.

HUGE coaching edge goes to Cleveland? :36_11_6:

Pop & Carlesimo are a bunch of scrubs or what. :smiley_acbe:
 
I had CLE over DET. All the people who had DET continue to pick against CLE, so please don't question my pick. Question yours.
Click to expand...

I had both Spurs and Cleveland to win their respective conference titles, before the playoffs even started. And I say Spurs win in 6. :D
 
Sorry if you don't understand, but that is who would win if they were the matchups. CLE can't beat PHO, but CLE plays SA really well. Its like saying DAL would beat SA, but DAL would lose to GS.

I believe PHO would have beat SA at full strength. PHX may never go all the way, we will have to wait till next yr.
 
You are one of the few to pick CLE in the ECF, but then pick SA in NBA Finals.
 
but no Stoudeamire or Diaw in Game 5
Click to expand...

I'll give you Amare. Diaw scored like 2 points in Game 6, that's how big his contribution was. Plus no Horry for the Spurs. Phoenix are more handicapped of course, but please get your facts straight if you're going to reason in that way.
 
My facts are right. No stoudamire or Boris Diaw in Game 5.
 
No coincidence CLE beat the Spurs twice? I'd direct to the thread where I addressed CLE catching the Spurs at just the right moments this past regular season. Minnesota beat the Spurs right after Cleveland did, does that mean their coach has a huge edge on Popovich? of course not. And any team w/rest facing a team off a road B2B automatically has the upper hand - any b2bs coming in this series?

If experience means nothing to you, 1 set of regular season results mean nothing to me. GS had won 7 of 8 against Dallas prior to their series, thats a proven long term edge. Cleveland's record playing the Spurs when the Spurs havent played the night before? 1-3 SU alltime w/LBJ present, w/an average losing margin of 15.6 points. Seems to me Pop does quite well when his veterans and "useless backups" get rest. And thats of course in an atmosphere where the Spurs arent bringing their finals game.

I didnt have Detroit, my only 2 side bets of that series were CLE laying points in G3, and the CLE ml in G5. My eyes are open, and its the Spurs I see (regarding a Finals winner, not any particular ATS considerations).
 
I believe PHO would have beat SA at full strength. PHX may never go all the way, we will have to wait till next yr.
Click to expand...

And you base that on what exactly? I don't have the actual numbers but if you want I can dig them out. H2H since D'Antoni took over the team is ridiculous. In favor of the Spurs. Regular season, playoffs, you name it, Spurs win.

And now all of a sudden they would "surely win it" had it not been for suspensions?
 
BC, not sure if you have the scheduling right for the second meeting between SA/CLE, which happened on Tues, Jan 2. SA entered @CLE on JAn 2nd rested. CLE was rested also. SA then played the following night @MIN on Wed. JAn 3. The loss @MIN on Jan 3 was a lookahead for SA who played DAL on Jan 5th.

So both teams were rested entering the Jan 2 matchup.

Interesting you would bring up situational intangibles for the regular season because it was DAL who was at significant disadvantages vs GS this year and GS still killed them in the postseason.
 
Fellas,

I absolutely understand why so many people apparently believe the Cavs series price is value. However, that's a peeps bet. Cleveland will have the daunting task of beating the Spurs probably twice in San Antonio in order to win this series. It's almost a certainty that the road team always wins one game of the middle three with the exception of last year. I don't believe in trends etc. but the reason why the road team usually grabs a road win is simply because they're the better team. I don't believe the Cavs can win in San Antonio. Perhaps they prove me wrong but they're going to likely have to win 2 of the 4 games in that building and I simply don't see that happening. So +400 isn't going to be too far off what they're going to be catching for a ML in game 7. Trust me this series isn't going more than 6 games.
 
SA destroyed PHO back in 2005 beating them in 5. SA really should have swept them. This year SA wa in a dog fight zig-zag series tied 2-2 going back to PHO for the key Game #5. This tells me SA is not the same team in the past. They are getting older, and are ready to lose as big favs. PHO was basically the same team as 2005 except take out Jim JAckson and subsitute Raja Bell. Stoudamire almost had the same exact scoring avg.

I am extremely confident CLE will destroy SA so be ready.
 
good discussions in here guys.

goodthread.gif
 
Handy, DET won the middle 3 games in 2004 vs LAL. SA has already lost Game #1 vs DEN because of rust. They also lost Game #4 vs PHO.

SA has a horrible ATS record in Game 1's.
 
2-3-2 format heavily favors the team with home court advantage, but if CLE wins Game #1, which I believe, I don't think CLE will lost at home.

CHI with Jordan also won the middle 3 games at home vs LAL in 1990
 
joebrensports said:
BC, not sure if you have the scheduling right for the second meeting between SA/CLE, which happened on Tues, Jan 2. SA entered @CLE on JAn 2nd rested. CLE was rested also. SA then played the following night @MIN on Wed. JAn 3. The loss @MIN on Jan 3 was a lookahead for SA who played DAL on Jan 5th.

So both teams were rested entering the Jan 2 matchup.

Interesting you would bring up situational intangibles for the regular season because it was DAL who was at significant disadvantages vs GS this year and GS still killed them in the postseason.
Click to expand...

You're right. Minnesota was the team they faced in that b2b situation.

Which makes matters a lot more clearer, in actual fact.

The Spurs w/rest at home vs CLE-LBJ - 2-0 SU, avg margin +22.5 pts
The Spurs w/rest away vs CLE-LBJ - 1-2 SU, avg margin -2.0 pts

And as for reg season intangibles, I acknowledged in my post the weight of GS's 7-1 mark vs DAL, precisely why I bet their ml twice during that series, and didnt back Dallas once. The figures above arent confined to 1 or 2 total contests, and clearly show that the Spurs have it on the Cavs at home when not playing B2B, but that their contests on the road should/will be a lot closer (which is why I say this series will need 6 games).
 
Only problem with your stats is Spurs w/rest at home did not happen this year. They are previous year stats. CLE is a growing team. If they were a mature team I would give you them stats, but you have to throw them out the window.

SA did play CLE at home off a BtB, but it was just the second game of the year for SA so you can't say they were tired. It was a road dog win vs DAL, so it does hold weight. SA was just a 5 point fav in that game with a total of 188.
 
If they were a mature team? hold on, I thought experience counted for nothing (going back a few responses to my cons post). You can't pick and choose when certain concepts apply, and when they dont. Either the Spurs have the experience/maturity advantage and therefore results outside this season count for nothing (because experience has quantitive meaning, and back seasons evidence it lacking on the Cavs part, hence those very results), or the Spurs experience advantage counts for nothing, therefore results outside this regular season do count for something (experience disadvantage is no excuse).

Cleveland w/rest beating the Spurs, themselves off a road win against Dallas & in a B2B situation in just the 2nd game of the year, means nothing to me. Now had Cleveland managed that with the Spurs hot on the heels of chasing down Dallas for their division title sometime in Feb or Mar, then I'd give it some due. Dallas started this season 0-4 & finished with the 9th alltime best record. The better teams have a tendency to start slowly. Phoenix another example.
 
Forget about the word- experience. Let me phrase it like this. Do you believe CLE is a better team this year compared to last year. After you answer this question than ask yourself should I apply these stats??

My answer would be CLE is a better team this year compared to last year. Not only that CLE since Game 3 of ECF is better than the regular season CLE. So I would not apply 2005-2006 stats to 2006-2007 CLE. Its apples-oranges
 
The word experience was being thrown around in the context that CLE does not have the experience compared to SA because they have never played in a NBA Finals and SA has already played in 3 and won all 3.

MY answer was simply there are tons of examples of teams finally breaking thru with no Finals experience winning against teams with finals experience.
 
Fair enough, but my notion of experience goes beyond just that. Its about the tightness of a group thats been through it all, good and bad, both in regular and post seasons.

In this way, Cleveland has little to nothing on the Spurs. The basic fact is what will faze the Cavs, will not faze the Spurs. Thats what experience buys you.
As for Cleveland overcoming Detroit's experience, imo Detroit was beyond their arc of achievement, staleness has/had settled into that group. Detroit lost their vitality when they lost coach Brown & Wallace. That didnt happen to the Spurs when they lost Robinson (or other vets), they simply havent missed a beat.
 
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