Stew Baker
Pretty much a regular
Before this year's WCF, the Jason Kidd-led Mavericks, since Kidd took over in 2021-22, had lost 5 straight series openers SU (14.4 pts. avg. margin of loss) and gone 0-5 ATS (-9.5 margin of cover) in those games. They then faced the Wolves in the WCF opener, in a spot I felt was a letdown spot for the Wolves (having just bested the reigning champion Nuggets in their series), and the Mavs broke the shneid. Now they face a Boston team which I feel will be highly focused in GM. 1, perhaps more focused in this opener than Dallas. Dallas may be a little full of themselves, as this group of Mavs just won their their first WCF, whereas Boston was expected to be, and fully expected themselves to be in the finals. As a consequence of this, I'm looking for Dallas to return to their prior opening game futility here.
Even so, I feel that 6 points (assuming it drops to that) even is a tad much to lay for a full game wager here, so I'm looking elsewhere for betting alternatives.
Let's look at how the two teams have done early in games in series openers this postseason. There's quite a dichotomy here between the Mavs and the Celts. In the 1st qtr. the Mavs have been quite bad in this year's postseason series openers (including the WCF Opener), going 0-2-1 SU (avg. margin of loss 6 pts) and 1-2 ATS (avg. margin of cover -5.2 pts). The Celts, on the other hand have certainly been adequate in these spots. 1st qtr. record in 2024 postseason openers 3-0 SU (avg. margin of win 4.7 pts), 2-1 ATS (avg. margin of cover 0.5 pts); this despite having an extended layoff prior to each of those games (6, 5, and 5 days, respectively) which would typically cause teams to be out of step early in games. I don't know how the Celts do it, but they do it! The Mavs, in contrast, in the one series opener when they had any kind of layoff prior (6 days, same layoff they have here), they faced the Clippers. who had the same rust disadvantage, and the Mavs lost the 1st quarter by 12!
In the 1st halves of these games, the Mavs are 0-3 SU (avg. margin of loss 12.7 pts) and 0-3 ATS (avg. margin of cover -11.5 pts). Celts in the 1st half of series openers this postseason 2-0-1 SU (avg. margin of win 8.3 pts); 2-1 ATS (avg. margin of cover 1.0 pts).
(Note as an aside: The Mavs have done well in the second halves of these games).
Going with the trends and the numbers here.
The plays:
0.8 units Celts 1st qtr. -2 -113
0.8 units Celts 1st hf. -3 1/2 -115
Explanation of betting units: My normal bet is 1 unit. However, I want to throttle the total risk amount when making 2 separate straight bets which are correlated to an extent, as is the case here.
Even so, I feel that 6 points (assuming it drops to that) even is a tad much to lay for a full game wager here, so I'm looking elsewhere for betting alternatives.
Let's look at how the two teams have done early in games in series openers this postseason. There's quite a dichotomy here between the Mavs and the Celts. In the 1st qtr. the Mavs have been quite bad in this year's postseason series openers (including the WCF Opener), going 0-2-1 SU (avg. margin of loss 6 pts) and 1-2 ATS (avg. margin of cover -5.2 pts). The Celts, on the other hand have certainly been adequate in these spots. 1st qtr. record in 2024 postseason openers 3-0 SU (avg. margin of win 4.7 pts), 2-1 ATS (avg. margin of cover 0.5 pts); this despite having an extended layoff prior to each of those games (6, 5, and 5 days, respectively) which would typically cause teams to be out of step early in games. I don't know how the Celts do it, but they do it! The Mavs, in contrast, in the one series opener when they had any kind of layoff prior (6 days, same layoff they have here), they faced the Clippers. who had the same rust disadvantage, and the Mavs lost the 1st quarter by 12!
In the 1st halves of these games, the Mavs are 0-3 SU (avg. margin of loss 12.7 pts) and 0-3 ATS (avg. margin of cover -11.5 pts). Celts in the 1st half of series openers this postseason 2-0-1 SU (avg. margin of win 8.3 pts); 2-1 ATS (avg. margin of cover 1.0 pts).
(Note as an aside: The Mavs have done well in the second halves of these games).
Going with the trends and the numbers here.
The plays:
0.8 units Celts 1st qtr. -2 -113
0.8 units Celts 1st hf. -3 1/2 -115
Explanation of betting units: My normal bet is 1 unit. However, I want to throttle the total risk amount when making 2 separate straight bets which are correlated to an extent, as is the case here.
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