NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2025 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records―all results based off opening lines―starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows (2020's playoff stats now incl. in an update)...


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 237-190-6

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _99-106-3
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 138-84-3


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 130-99-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 66-58-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 64-41-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 107-91-4

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 33-48-2
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 74-43-2

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

24-25 Playoff Elimination Game results

Round 1

OKC@MEM - Game 4: Over
CLE@MIA - Game 4: Over
MIL@IND - Game 5: Over (via Overtime)
DET@NYK - Game 5: Under
ORL@BOS - Game 5: Over
GS@HOU - Game 5: Over
MIN@LAL - Game 5: Under
NYK@DET - Game 6: Over
DEN@LAC - Game 6: Over
HOU@GS - Game 6: Over
LAC@DEN - Game 7: Over
GS@HOU - Game 7: Under


Round 2

IND@CLE - Game 5: Under
NYK@BOS - Game 5: Over
GS@MIN - Game 5: Over
OKC@DEN - Game 6: Over
BOS@NYK - Game 6: Under
DEN@OKC - Game 7: Over


Round 3

.


Round 4

.

 

[B.A.R.]

Here we go!

First game is in Memphis with a 230 local start tomorrow. Wild to think that series could come to a close before the Rockets and Warriors even play their THIRD game!

Matinee and only 36 hours of downtime help this under -- albeit a big adjustment has come with the Morant injury.

Thanks as always for starting up a spring ritual!

 

[skanless13]

So according to these trends, the plays should be OVER in the Cle game, and UNDER in the Clips game 6?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

So according to these trends, the plays should be OVER in the Cle game, and UNDER in the Clips game 6?

Based on the past trends, yes.

My concern for the Clev game is Miami quit and so you get one side not doing their share (a la their game 3), which is the basis for quite a few of the recent Unders in the playoffs. A team that went 8-games under .500 in the reg. season record has no place being in the playoffs.

My concern for the Clips game is that series is currently 4-0 to Under. If game 5 goes Under as well, every man & his dog won't be scared off a low/er line for Under in game 6. Can't immediately recall any series ever popping off 6 straight specific total results.

 

[eggman]

love this thread!

 

[pressitup]

friggin OT

 

[BetCrimes1984]

friggin OT

The individual who originally decided to name that added-on period Overtime rather than Undertime was presumably a betting person.

 

[Gandolf]

Ugh, nobody plays enough defense anymore.....

 

[pressitup]

Ugh, nobody plays enough defense anymore.....

Defense?
We talking about Defense?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

My thoughts on the Hou/GS g7:

Pointers to an Under contest
Between the 2015 & 2024 playoffs (incl. 2020's, whose stats I've foregone as noted), game 7's alone have recorded a 21-11 Under record.

Further, out of those 32 game 6-7 combos (obv. you can't have a g7 without a g6) only 6 produced a g6-Over/g7-Over combo. So Denver & LAC's managing of that feat is only the 7th time that's happened in the last 33 series to go to a 7th game = that's a mere 21.2% rate of occurrence. Needless to observe, GS & Houston's g6 went Over, headed into their g7. Since 2013 (the time I've been recording these results), only the 2014 playoffs have witnessed two x g6-Over/g7-Over combos occurring in the same round (the 1st, ftr).

Pointers to an Over contest
The Denver/LAC series opened 4-0 to Under though their first 4 games then finished with 3 straight Overs. This GS/HOU series opened 3-0 to Under through their first 3 games, and have had 3 straight Overs since. Sometimes when team/s offensive adjustments work out the kinks and the scoring tide comes in, sometimes it simply never goes back out again. The Den/LAC series reads that way (obv. with hindsight), that's the same 'threat' to the g7 trend that this GS/Hou flow of results presents. Houston was the team with the struggling offense early in this series when the Unders came in, it's their offense that's taken off (the last 2 games especially, w/131 & 115 pt TT's) when the Overs have started to flow.

In short there's an obvious clash between elimination g7 trends and what's happening within this specific series. Gun to my head I'd bet GS's team total Under here. Houston has the impetus (energy) and the HCA, and as I see it if the game goes Over you're going to lose the Hou TT Under bet but could still win the GS TT Under bet, whereas if the FG goes Under I believe it would be exceedingly unlikely in that instance that the GS TT will go Over (a scenario obv. in which GS won the game SU). I expect Houston to win SU and taking a FG Under is getting in the way of what's rapidly become an offensive juggernaut. Opting for one team's Under alone dodges what seems to be on paper the biggest offensive threat to a FG Under.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Quick note on my editing in of 2020's elimination game stats:

When it came to the 2020 playoffs, I never even began to collate the stats since the peculiar circumstances of their being hosted at the one venue was known beforehand. It was never the case of my recording the stats as they started to occur & then abandoning the work because the unique circumstances were perceived as leading to adverse results which then 'hurt' the long term trends (cherry-picking, in other words). I decided beforehand that the lack of any real HCA would undermine the trends, and just left well alone. Having had cause to actually collate those stats for the first time during these playoffs I've found that despite there only being the one (neutral) venue in use for 2020's playoffs the trends still solidly held which I read as an affirmation of them, thus those results now being included.

 

[B.A.R.]

Any extra notes for --

Game 7 in general?

Game 7 in the semifinals?

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Sorry BAR I was absent. Not hindsight I promise, but before the game Denver was 3-0 Over in game 6s or 7s these playoffs, thus obv. finish with their mark at 4-0. If you excise their results from the R1+R2 record so far, the game 6-7 total record stands at 2-2, hardly a serious bucking of the trends. But 6-2 Over overall is a bucking of the trends, due to the behaviour of one team.

As I've noted more than once in these threads down the years some teams in specific post seasons for whatever reason you just cannot reach with this trend (in the 2023 & 2024 playoffs, Denver played 1 x game 6 and 1 x game 7 and both went Under). Noticeably they've almost always been Western Conference teams, but there are Eastern Conf exceptions. For anyone not aware, when it comes to round 2+ elim games imo give weight to round 1 results from games 6s & 7s, on top of all the other factors you consider for such bets.

 

[B.A.R.]

Sorry BAR I was absent. Not hindsight I promise, but before the game Denver was 3-0 Over in game 6s or 7s these playoffs, thus obv. finish with their mark at 4-0. If you excise their results from the R1+R2 record so far, the game 6-7 total record stands at 2-2, hardly a serious bucking of the trends. But 6-2 Over overall is a bucking of the trends, due to the behaviour of one team.

As I've noted more than once in these threads down the years some teams in specific post seasons for whatever reason you just cannot reach with this trend (in the 2023 & 2024 playoffs, Denver played 1 x game 6 and 1 x game 7 and both went Under). Noticeably they've almost always been Western Conference teams, but there are Eastern Conf exceptions. For anyone not aware, when it comes to round 2+ elim games imo give weight to round 1 results from games 6s & 7s, on top of all the other factors you consider for such bets.

All good.

I remember 15-20 years ago the Phoenix Suns of Steve Nash bucked some systems/trends.