NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2025 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records―all results based off opening lines―starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows (please note: due to the fact that 2020's playoff games all took place at a single venue which thereby eliminated home court advantage and thus the effect such would otherwise normally exert on the totals outcome of any given elimination game, I have excluded those results from the data base that follows below)...


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 225-182-6

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _95-101-3
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 130-81-3


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 124-95-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 64-55-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 60-40-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 101-87-4

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 31-46-2
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 70-41-2

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

24-25 Playoff Elimination Game results

Round 1

OKC@MEM - Game 4: Over
CLE@MIA - Game 4: Over
MIL@IND - Game 5: Over (via Overtime)
DET@NYK - Game 5: Under
ORL@BOS - Game 5: Over
GS@HOU - Game 5: Over
MIN@LAL - Game 5: Under
NYK@DET - Game 6: Over
DEN@LAC - Game 6: Over
HOU@GS - Game 6: Over
LAC@DEN - Game 7: Over
GS@HOU - Game 7:


Round 2

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Round 3

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Round 4

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[B.A.R.]

Here we go!

First game is in Memphis with a 230 local start tomorrow. Wild to think that series could come to a close before the Rockets and Warriors even play their THIRD game!

Matinee and only 36 hours of downtime help this under -- albeit a big adjustment has come with the Morant injury.

Thanks as always for starting up a spring ritual!

 

[skanless13]

So according to these trends, the plays should be OVER in the Cle game, and UNDER in the Clips game 6?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

So according to these trends, the plays should be OVER in the Cle game, and UNDER in the Clips game 6?

Based on the past trends, yes.

My concern for the Clev game is Miami quit and so you get one side not doing their share (a la their game 3), which is the basis for quite a few of the recent Unders in the playoffs. A team that went 8-games under .500 in the reg. season record has no place being in the playoffs.

My concern for the Clips game is that series is currently 4-0 to Under. If game 5 goes Under as well, every man & his dog won't be scared off a low/er line for Under in game 6. Can't immediately recall any series ever popping off 6 straight specific total results.

 

[eggman]

love this thread!

 

[pressitup]

friggin OT

 

[BetCrimes1984]

friggin OT

The individual who originally decided to name that added-on period Overtime rather than Undertime was presumably a betting person.

 

[Gandolf]

Ugh, nobody plays enough defense anymore.....

 

[pressitup]

Ugh, nobody plays enough defense anymore.....

Defense?
We talking about Defense?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just an FYI:

Between the 2015 & 2024 playoffs (incl. 2020's, whose stats I've foregone as noted), game 7's alone have recorded a 21-11 Under record.

Further, out of those 32 game 6-7 combos (obv. you can't have a g7 without a g6) only 6 produced a g6-Over/g7-Over combo. So Denver & LAC's managing of that feat is only the 7th time that's happened in the last 33 series to go to a 7th game = that's a 21.2% rate of occurrence. Needless to observe, GS & Houston's g6 went Over, headed into their g7. Since 2013 (the time I've been recording these results), only the 2014 playoffs have witnessed 2 x g6-Over/g7-Over combos occurring in the same round (the 1st, ftr).