NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2017 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records (based on opening lines) starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 143-101-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 59-56-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 84-45-2


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 82-53-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 42-31-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 40-22-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 61-48-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 17-25
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 44-23-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 33.82%), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.


The one team to prove the exception to the above trends (and whose results I've not included above) was the Amar'e Stoudemire era...

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they won SU: U/O 2-8
Elimination games they lost SU: U/O 4-2

For this incarnation of the Phoenix Suns it didn't matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they were playing in, or what Round they're playing it in, as related to their final total result: it came down to their SU performance.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

16-17 Elimination game results


Round 1

CLE@IND - Game 4: Under
GSW@POR - Game 4: Over
OKC@HOU - Game 5: Under
TOR@MIL - Game 6: Under
SAS@MEM - Game 6: Over
WAS@ATL - Game 6: Over
BOS@CHC - Game 6: Under
LAC@UTH - Game 6: Under
UTH@LAC - Game 7: Over


Round 2

CLE@TOR - Game 4: Under
GSW@UTH - Game 4: Over
SAS@HOU - Game 6: Under
BOS@WAS - Game 6: Under
WAS@BOS - Game 7: Over


Round 3

GSW@SAS - Game 4: Over
CLE@BOS - Game 5: Over


Round 4

GSW@CLE - Game 4: Over
CLE@GSW - Game 5: Over

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[emkee]

Appreciate your work BC.

:shake2:

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks as always, very interested in this years results.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

emkee, BAR -:shake:

 

[pressitup]

Thread delivers year in and year out. Cornerstone of the CTG foundation

 

[eggman]

Best thread on the site for production....

 

[doogie]

Was getting worried this wasn't going to be posted. Love this reminder each year!
Thanks and good luck!!

 

[Tito]

:cheers3:

thank you BC

 

[ProV1Colt]

Can't miss thread as always. look fwd to the results

 

[Hulu]

I think there was some market adjustment for the elimination factor in todays cavs/pacers game.

Based purely on games 1-3 I think the line should've been somewhere in the 217-219 area but it opened at 211.5 and closed 213.5. Still went under though.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just an observation:

In the last 10 games, Overs have been killing it: 1h + 2h + full game total results have gone 23-7 to Over. So Joe Q Public has been recently conditioned to not fear betting on points being scored at any point of a game just as we arrive at the elimination game stage of the 1st Round.

From where I'm sitting, I find it impossible to believe LAC & Utah will pay out on all 3 Overs in their game 5. More inclined to look for a 1st or 2nd h Under between Hou & Okc rather than the FG one. The Sas/Mem FG total is so low relative to 'modern' scoring, I just couldn't pre-bet it (rather wait on a live or 2nd h line) but wouldn't (in light of Game 2's outcome) bet against it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

In the last 10 games, Overs have been killing it: 1h + 2h + full game total results have gone 23-7 to Over. So Joe Q Public has been recently conditioned to not fear betting on points being scored at any point of a game just as we arrive at the elimination game stage of the 1st Round.

Since I posted that stat, 5 games have been played and Unders have come out ahead by a count of 14-7, so a regression of sorts has certainly taken place (further, 1 series alone - Sas vs. Mem - is responsible for cashing 6 of those 7 Overs).

However, it would be remiss of me not to post the following now I've become aware of it. Given the increase in offense over the last couple of seasons (mirroring the rise of the Warriors), I decided to isolate the last few seasons of elimination game results and see if they told any kind of story. They certainly did...

Last 2 playoffs (2015-16)
games 4/5 from the 2R onwards: 6-2 to Over
games 6/7 from the 2R onwards: 8-6 to Over
Total: 14-8 to Over

4 Playoffs prior to 2015-16 (2011-12-13-14)
games 4/5 from the 2R onwards: 10-7 to Under
games 6/7 from the 2R onwards: 11-9 to Under
Total: 21-16 to Under

Further, 2 of those 10 Overs from the 2011-14 period include 2 game 6 Overs that went Under in regulation and only failed to cash because of OT periods, so that figure could easily read 23-14 rather than what it actually does.

Obviously we're still in the 1st Round (and there's no similar stat gulf between these 2 time periods when it comes to 1R results), so what I'm posting I see no reason should affect approaches to present elimination games, but it's def. something to keep in mind moving forward. Of course 2 season's limited results don't make for any kind of cemented sea change and these latest results could easily be a blip, but the fact they coincide with a definite league-wide shift towards offense and away from defense means matters can't be definitively written off inevitably as a blip. Something to keep in mind as we get deeper into the playoffs.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Regarding game 6 between Utah & LAC:

The 3 games in LA have gone 8-1 to Under for 1h+2h+Fg totals.
The 2 games in Utah thus far have gone 5-1 to Over for 1h+2h+Fg totals.

Obviously nothing about Utah's style suggests a blind bet on Over in this elimination spot, but the series trends thus far can't be denied: the dominant team in this series so far has found it a lot easier to put up offense at home, and LA seems to oblige however Utah wants these games played (re low or high scoring). I'd prefer to see how game 6 starts & look to bet (if at all) the Under live or for the 2nd half. Those series trends put paid for me the thought of pre-betting this elim Under.

 

[B.A.R.]

I like your adjustment here, a lot.

I'd prefer to see how game 6 starts & look to bet (if at all) the Under live or for the 2nd half.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just a fwiw:

Went back over the 9 seasons I could find lines for Game 7's, and got the following breakdown:

Game 7's in the 1st Round...
at a WC venue: 5-2 to Over
at a EC venue: 5-3 to Under


Game 7's from the 2nd Round onwards...
at a WC venue: 4-1 to Under
at a EC venue: 3-3

Obviously not an overwhelmingly sizable stat pool of results to call upon, but even so what's there clearly points to the fact that the one place a game 7 has been most likely to pay out on an Over has been in the 1st Round at a Western Conference venue.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

just FTR: the last 3 2nd Round G7's (dating back to the 2010-11 playoffs) all went Over.

If I have a concern about the Under in this game, it's Washington not being competitive and Boston running all over them, leading to a circus like game (I immediately think of the elim. game 6 between Boston & the Lakers in 07-08 which flew over because the uncompetitive Lakers blew goats on D = the game's scoring turned into a circus act). Washington remaining competitive = their defense shows up (a la G6). Live total betting and a 2h Under hunt will mark my approach to this game.

 

[pressitup]

I"m under. Hope they all stay tight and need to bounce the ball a lot to loosen up.

 

[eggman]

No way I can touch the under tonight.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

No way I can touch the under tonight.

Just got onsite: this situation typically plays Over, it's not an Under spot.

 

[eggman]

Just got onsite: this situation typically plays Over, it's not an Under spot.

Understood. Appreciate the thread bud.