BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
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The overall ATS figures for the last 17 seasons (not incl. 20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 598-647-28 ....... -49
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 553-671-22 ....... -118
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.03% vs. 45.17% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
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Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 153-163-10
As the Fav ....................................... 99-108-5
As the Dog ..................................... 54-55-5
vs. Conference teams ................ 98-101-9
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 55-62-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 72-68-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 26-33-4
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 27-40
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 28-22-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 172-183-10
As the Fav ..................................... 128-124-8
As the Dog ..................................... 44-59-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 105-111-7
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 67-72-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 70-74-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 35-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 58-50-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................. 9-22-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 79-111-4
Road game ........................................ 56-68-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 50-64-2
@Home as a Dog ................................. 29-47-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-15-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 40-53-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 57-65-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 22-46-3
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 49-62-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 7-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 34-39-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 23-26
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 16-25-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 6-21-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 34-47-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 6-6
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 113-138-4
Road game ......................................... 52-49-1
@Home as a Fav .................................... 81-103-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 32-35-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 13-7
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 39-42-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 73-98-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 40-40
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 34-42-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 18-7
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 53-73-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 20-25-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 28-30
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 12-10
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 9-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 25-35-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 14-7
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 131-153-3
As the Fav ....................................... 80-106-3
As the Dog ..................................... 51-47
vs. Conference teams ................. 89-93-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 42-60-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 58-64-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 31-29
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 22-42-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 20-18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 142-148-5
As the Fav ........................................ 95-109-3
As the Dog ...................................... 47-39-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 88-84-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 54-64-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 55-56-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 33-28-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 40-53-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 14-11-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 95-81-5
Road game ....................................... 42-60-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 62-58-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 33-23-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 16-9-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 26-51
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 60-62-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 35-19-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 37-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 5-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 41-46-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 19-16-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-12-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 14-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-8-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 24-46
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 3-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 2-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 79-107-2
Road game ......................................... 37-57-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 56-72-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 23-35
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 12-14
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 25-43-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 52-71-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 27-36
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 31-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 6-6-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 37-42-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 15-29
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 19-30
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-6
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 11-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 20-39-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 17 seasons, not incl. 20-21)
Win both ......... 22.58%
Lose both ........ 29.98%
Split results ..... 47.44%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 17 seasons, not incl. 20-21)
Win both ......... 21.75%
Lose both ........ 29.93%
Split results ..... 48.32%
The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall ATS figures for the last 17 seasons (not incl. 20-21) are as follows -
For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 598-647-28 ....... -49
For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 553-671-22 ....... -118
The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.03% vs. 45.17% for the 2nd game.
Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...
Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Teams off 4 game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 153-163-10
As the Fav ....................................... 99-108-5
As the Dog ..................................... 54-55-5
vs. Conference teams ................ 98-101-9
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 55-62-1
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 72-68-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 26-33-4
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 27-40
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 28-22-1
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 172-183-10
As the Fav ..................................... 128-124-8
As the Dog ..................................... 44-59-2
vs. Conference teams ................. 105-111-7
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 67-72-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 70-74-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 35-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 58-50-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................. 9-22-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ...................................... 79-111-4
Road game ........................................ 56-68-3
@Home as a Fav ................................... 50-64-2
@Home as a Dog ................................. 29-47-2
on the Road as a Fav ........................... 16-15-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 40-53-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 57-65-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 22-46-3
on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 49-62-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 7-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 34-39-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 23-26
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 16-25-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 6-21-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 15-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 34-47-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 6-6
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ..................................... 113-138-4
Road game ......................................... 52-49-1
@Home as a Fav .................................... 81-103-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 32-35-1
on the Road as a Fav ............................ 13-7
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 39-42-1
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 73-98-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 40-40
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 34-42-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 18-7
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 53-73-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 20-25-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 28-30
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 12-10
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 9-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 25-35-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 4-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 14-7
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Teams off 5+ game road trips
1st Game Back - Eastern teams
Overall ...................................... 131-153-3
As the Fav ....................................... 80-106-3
As the Dog ..................................... 51-47
vs. Conference teams ................. 89-93-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 42-60-2
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 58-64-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 31-29
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 22-42-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 20-18
1st Game Back - Western teams
Overall ...................................... 142-148-5
As the Fav ........................................ 95-109-3
As the Dog ...................................... 47-39-2
vs. Conference teams .................. 88-84-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 54-64-3
vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 55-56-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 33-28-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 40-53-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 14-11-1
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2nd game Back - Eastern teams
Home game ..................................... 95-81-5
Road game ....................................... 42-60-1
@Home as a Fav .................................. 62-58-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 33-23-2
on the Road as a Fav .......................... 16-9-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 26-51
@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 60-62-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 35-19-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 37-54-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 5-6
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 41-46-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 19-16-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-12-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 14-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-8-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 24-46
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 3-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 2-5
2nd game Back - Western teams
Home game ....................................... 79-107-2
Road game ......................................... 37-57-2
@Home as a Fav ..................................... 56-72-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 23-35
on the Road as a Fav ............................. 12-14
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 25-43-2
@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 52-71-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 27-36
on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 31-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 6-6-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 37-42-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 15-29
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 19-30
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-6
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 11-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 20-39-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1
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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency
to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push married w/either a win or loss)...
Off 4 game road trips (last 17 seasons, not incl. 20-21)
Win both ......... 22.58%
Lose both ........ 29.98%
Split results ..... 47.44%
Off 5+ game road trips (last 17 seasons, not incl. 20-21)
Win both ......... 21.75%
Lose both ........ 29.93%
Split results ..... 48.32%
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