NBA 2019-20 Post-Road Trip ATS Results

[BetCrimes1984]

I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own home court) was in their first game back home.

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures for the last 16 seasons are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip -- 572-608-26 ....... -36

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 523-639-22 ....... -116


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.47% vs. 45.00% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

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Teams off 4 game road trips

1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ...................................... 143-155-8


As the Fav ....................................... 90-104-5
As the Dog ..................................... 53-51-3

vs. Conference teams ................ 91-95-8
vs. non-Conference teams ...... 52-60


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ......................... 66-65-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 25-30-3

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 24-39
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............. 28-21


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ...................................... 162-167-10


As the Fav ..................................... 122-113-8
As the Dog ..................................... 40-54-2

vs. Conference teams ................. 99-102-7
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 63-65-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav .......................... 67-69-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........................ 32-33-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 55-44-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................. 8-21-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ...................................... 71-103-4
Road game ........................................ 55-66-3


@Home as a Fav ................................... 47-59-2
@Home as a Dog ................................. 24-44-2

on the Road as a Fav ........................... 15-15-2
on the Road as a Dog ......................... 40-51-1


@Home vs. Conf teams ...................... 51-58-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............ 20-45-3

on the Road vs. Conf teams .............. 48-60-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 7-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 32-35-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 19-23

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 15-24-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 5-21-2

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 14-15-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 34-45-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 6-6


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..................................... 100-129-4
Road game ......................................... 51-47-1


@Home as a Fav .................................... 73-95-3
@Home as a Dog .................................. 27-34-1

on the Road as a Fav ............................ 12-7
on the Road as a Dog .......................... 39-40-1


@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 66-91-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 34-38

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 34-40-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 17-7


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 47-67-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 19-24-1

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 26-28
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-10

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 9-7
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 25-33-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 3-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .. 14-7

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Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ...................................... 128-147-3


As the Fav ....................................... 78-101-3
As the Dog ..................................... 50-46

vs. Conference teams ................. 86-90-1
vs. non-Conference teams ....... 42-57-2


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ........................... 56-61-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ......................... 30-29

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................. 22-40-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 20-17


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ...................................... 139-139-5


As the Fav ........................................ 93-103-3
As the Dog ...................................... 46-36-2

vs. Conference teams .................. 85-78-2
vs. non-Conference teams ........ 54-61-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............................ 53-51-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .......................... 32-27-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .................. 40-52-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 14-9-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ..................................... 91-77-5
Road game ....................................... 42-59-1


@Home as a Fav .................................. 58-55-3
@Home as a Dog ................................ 33-22-2

on the Road as a Fav .......................... 16-9-1
on the Road as a Dog ........................ 26-50


@Home vs. Conf teams ..................... 56-58-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 35-19-1

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............. 37-53-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ...... 5-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 37-43-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 19-15-2

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 21-12-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 14-7

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 13-8-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 24-45

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 3-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 2-5


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ....................................... 76-101-2
Road game ......................................... 37-57-2


@Home as a Fav ..................................... 54-68-2
@Home as a Dog ................................... 22-33

on the Road as a Fav ............................. 12-14
on the Road as a Dog ........................... 25-43-2


@Home vs. Conf teams ....................... 49-69-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ............. 27-32

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............... 31-51-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ........ 6-6-1


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 35-41-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 14-28

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 19-27
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............ 8-5

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............. 11-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ........... 20-39-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ...... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .... 5-4-1

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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 16 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.00%
Lose both ........ 30.58%
Split results ..... 47.42%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 16 seasons)
Win both ......... 23.13%
Lose both ........ 29.87%
Split results ..... 47.00%

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Naturally there are some teams that either stay especially true to such trends or significantly defy them (the figures below are the 4 & 5+ game trip stats combined)...


Teams recently in keeping with the trends

Teams with the best 1st game records over the last 8 seasons -

Oklahoma ........... 8-3
Milwaukee ....... 12-6
Brooklyn ........... 11-7

Notable mentions:
Indiana is 6-1 ATS & Detroit is 7-2 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 8 seasons -

Oklahoma ........... 2-8
Phoenix ................ 7-18
Sacramento ..... 10-18
LA Lakers ............ 8-13-1
Milwaukee .......... 8-10

Notable mention: Orlando is 2-6 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.


Teams recently bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 8 seasons -

Miami .................... 8-19
Charlotte ........... 10-16

Notable mentions:
Phoenix is 1-8 ATS & Washington is 2-6 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.


Teams with the best 2nd game records over the last 8 seasons -

Boston ................ 10-3-2
Chicago .............. 10-5-1
Portland ............. 18-11
LA Clippers ....... 13-8-1

Notable mention: Charlotte is 8-2 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.

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These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when thats a pick'em, the home team is made a -0.5 Fav).

November

POR off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fave vs. PHI - Lost
4th - Road Dog vs. GSW - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs. IND - Won
7th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. GSW - Won
9th - Road Fave vs. CHC - Won

PHI off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs. CHA - Lost
12th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost
16th - Road Fave vs. IND - Won

TOR off a 5 game trip
18th - Home Fave vs. CHA - Won
20th - Home Fave vs. ORL - Won

BRK off a 5 game trip
18th - Home Fave vs. IND - Lost
20th - Home Fave vs. CHA - Won

ATL off a 5 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Won
22nd - Road Dog vs. DET - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Dog vs. CHC - Push
25th - Road Dog vs. MIA - Lost

SAS off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Dog vs. LAL - Lost
27th - Home Fave vs. MIN - Lost

GSW off a 4 game trip
25th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Won
27th - Home Dog vs. CHC - Won

BOS off a 5 game trip
25th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost
27th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won

POR off a 6 game trip
27th - Home Fave vs. OKC - Won
29th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
29th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost
1st - Home Fave vs. GSW - Lost

LAL off a 4 game trip
29th - Home Fave vs. WAS - Won
1st - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
30th - Home Dog vs. DEN - Won
2nd - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost

 

[BetCrimes1984]

December

WAS off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. ORL - Lost
5th - Home Dog vs. PHI - Won

UTH off a 5 game trip
4th - Home Fave vs. LAL - Lost
7th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won

GSW off a 5 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost
11th - Home Fave vs. NYK - Lost

IND off a 5 game trip
9th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost
11th - Home Fave vs. BOS - Won

PHX off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. MIN - Won
11th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost

MIN off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs. UTH - Lost
13th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. OKC - Lost
13th - Home Fave vs. NYK - Lost

DEN off a 4 game trip
12th - Home Fave vs. POR - Won
14th - Home Fave vs. OKC - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Lost
14th - Home Dog vs. WAS - Won

OKC off a 4 game trip
16th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost
18th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost

LAC off a 6 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won
19th - Home Fave vs. HOU - Lost

NYK off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Won
20th - Road Dog vs. MIA - Lost

LAL off a 5 game trip
22nd - Home Fave vs. DEN - Lost
25th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Dog vs. HOU - Lost
26th - Home Fave vs. MIN - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
27th - Home Dog vs. PHI - Won

NOR off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Dog vs. IND - Won
29th - Home Fave vs. HOU - Won

HOU off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won
29th - Road Dog vs. NOR - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Dog vs. NYK - Lost
30th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Won

MIN off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost
30th - Home Dog vs. BRK - Won

CHC off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Won
30th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Lost

January

PHX off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs. NYK - Won
5th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost

PHI off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. OKC - Won
9th - Home Fave vs. BOS - Won

DET off a 6 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost
11th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost

OKC off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Won
11th - Home Fave vs. LAL - Lost

NYK off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Dog vs. NOR - Lost
12th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Won

DEN off a 5 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost
12th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Lost
13th - Home Fave vs. CHA - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
14th - Home Fave vs. NYK - Won
16th - Home Fave vs. BOS - Lost

SAS off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Lost
19th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Won

CLE off a 6 game trip
20th - Home Fave vs. NYK - Lost
23rd - Home Dog vs. WAS - Lost

CHA off a 4 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs. ORL - Lost
24th - Game played in Europe, nullifying the spot

ORL off a 6 game trip
22nd - Home Fave vs. OKC - Lost
24th - Home Fave vs. BOS - Lost

LAC off a 5 game trip
28th - Postponed
30th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost (= 1st game back/no 2nd game)

LAL off a 5 game trip
28th - Postponed
31st - Home Fave vs. POR - Lost (= 1st game back/no 2nd game)

SAC off a 5 game trip
29th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Lost
30th - Home Dog vs. LAC - Won

IND off a 5 game trip
29th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
1st - Home Fave vs. NYK - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs. CHA - Won
1st - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won

HOU off a 4 game trip
31st - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost
2nd - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won

 

[BetCrimes1984]

February

PHI off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won
9th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost

GSW off a 5 game trip
8th - Home Dog vs. LAL - Won
10th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Lost

LAC off a 4 game trip
22nd - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost
24th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost
29th - Home Dog vs. LAL - Won

BOS off a 4 game trip
29th - Home Fave vs. HOU - Lost
3rd - Home Fave vs. BRK - Lost

March

SAC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs. DET - Lost
3rd - Home Fave vs. WAS - Won

MIN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs. DAL - Lost
4th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won

BRK off a 4 game trip
4th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost
6th - Home Fave vs. SAS - Won

DAL off a 4 game trip
4th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Lost
6th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won

DET off a 4 game trip
4th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Push
7th - Home Dog vs. UTH - Won

WAS off a 4 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Won
8th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. TOR - Lost
No 2nd game

IND off a 5 game trip
10th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Lost
No 2nd game


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Overall results for the 2019-20 season -

Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ........
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips ......

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips .....
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ...

Combined Results

Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips .....
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ...
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[BetCrimes1984]

As usual, the schedule makers have seen fit to be cruel to a number of teams
(bolded blue opponents also playing b2b)...

Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 1 day's rest since their trip's end

MEM off a 4 game trip
13th Dec. - Home vs. MIL - Lost
14th Dec. - Home vs. WAS - Won

SAC off a 5 game trip
29th Jan. - Home vs. OKC - Lost
30th Jan. - Away vs. LAC - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
28th Feb. - Home vs. SAC - Lost
29th Feb. - Home vs. LAL - Won


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 2+ days rest since their trip's end

NOR off a 4 game trip
28th Dec. - Home vs. IND - Won
29th Dec. - Home vs. HOU - Won

HOU off a 4 game trip
28th Dec. - Home vs. BRK - Won
29th Dec. - Away vs. NOR - Lost

DEN off a 5 game trip
11th Jan. - Home vs. CLE - Lost
12th Jan. - Home vs. LAC - Won

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Overall results (last 23 seasons)

1st game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip: 102-124-5 .... 45.13% win rate
2nd game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip.: 96-130-5 .... 42.47% win rate

Either game off any rest vs. opponent NOT playing b2b: 136-187-7 ... 42.10% win rate
Either game off any rest vs. an opponent playing b2b:..... 62-67-3 ..... 48.06% win rate


1st Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 38-49-3
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 34-38-1
Overall: 72-87-4

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: _9-23-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 21-14
Overall: 30-37-1


2nd Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 33-47-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 31-53-2
Overall: 64-100-3

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 19-15-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 13-15-1
Overall: 32-30-2


Result Sequences (do not include those involving Pushes)

Sequence ......... W-W ... W-L ... L-W ... L-L
1 day of rest ...... 24 ........ 22 ...... 27 ..... 39
2+ days rest ...... 28 ........ 25 ...... 12 ..... 44

Looking at these results within each rest grouping -

- Teams who have won their 1st game have pretty much been a 52-53% shot to win their 2nd game, no matter what the nature of their rest off their recent road trip.

- Teams who have lost their 1st game off short rest have lost their 2nd game at a 59.09% rate, but off longer rest have lost their subsequent game at a much higher 78.57% rate.

It's definitely worth paying some attention to the result of the 1st game, when it comes to ascertaining what's worth betting for the 2nd game.

 

[BenchCoach]

Thank you for taking the time to put this together. I am getting some time off work this winter for the first time in almost a decade. I used to be pretty good in the NBA but the last 5-6 years I have been so swamped in the winter I have had to let it go. Getting back into it the next few months and really looking forward to following your action...gl this year

 

[booksbestfriend]

..and I say this B/C b-ball is not my strong suit. However, I do like money.

 

[pip2]

The interesting twist here is that the Bet Crimes game today is being played in Paris...does that enhance the effect or negate it?