NBA 2017-18 Post-Road Trip ATS Results

[BetCrimes1984]

I initially gathered these figures (based on opening lines) together midway through the 06-07 season, to test the veracity of the belief that said the time to fade teams off longish road trips (longish = 4 or more games in length, since that usually translates to at least a week's absence from ones own homecourt) was in their first game back home.

The clear message from these (fully updated) figures is - it isn't the 1st game back @home where you find a real advantage in fading a team, it's in their 2nd game back.

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The overall ATS figures for the last 14 seasons are as follows -

For the 1st game off a 4+ game road trip - 493-523-24 .......... -30

For the 2nd game off a 4+ game road trip - 445-555-21 ........ -110


The ATS win rate for the 1st game is 48.52% vs. 44.50% for the 2nd game.


Of course the above figures are a lot more involved than what the surface facts provide. Different scenarios & teams means its not always that clean cut to say *never* bet a team in the 2nd game. On this basis, I've broken down each set of stats into the deeper scenarios, for 2 groupings: Teams coming off 4 game road trips, and teams coming off 5+ game road trips...

Note: where the All-Star break broke up a teams road trip, or broke up a team's return game/games, they have been excluded.

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Teams off 4 game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall ............................................ 124-129-7


As the Fav ........................................ 78-85-5
As the Dog ....................................... 46-44-2

vs. Conference teams ...................... 78-81-7
vs. non-Conference teams ............... 46-48


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................... 55-55-5
vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................. 23-26-2

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............ 23-30
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........... 23-18


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall ............................................. 131-143-10


As the Fav ......................................... 96-101-8
As the Dog ........................................ 35-42-2

vs. Conference teams ....................... 80-90-7
vs. non-Conference teams ................ 51-53-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav .................... 53-62-6
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................... 27-28-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav.............. 43-39-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 8-14-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ....................................... 58-85-4
Road game ........................................ 51-55-3


@Home as a Fav ............................. 35-50-2
@Home as a Dog ............................ 23-35-2

on the Road as a Fav ...................... 14-11-2
on the Road as a Dog ...................... 37-44-1


@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 44-50-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 14-35-3

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 44-50-3
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ....... 7-5


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 26-30-1
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 18-20

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ................ 9-20-1
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ............... 5-15-2

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 13-11-2
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 31-39-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... 1-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 6-5


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game ..................................... 86-108-4
Road game ...................................... 42-38-1


@Home as a Fav ............................ 62-80-3
@Home as a Dog ........................... 24-28-1

on the Road as a Fav ..................... 10-6
on the Road as a Dog ..................... 32-32-1


@Home vs. Conf teams .................. 55-80-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........... 31-28

on the Road vs. Conf teams ............ 26-32-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 16-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 38-59-3
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 17-21-1

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 24-21
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-7

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 7-6
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 19-26-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... 3-0
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ....... 13-6

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Teams off 5+ game road trips


1st Game Back - Eastern teams

Overall .......................................... 108-131-2


As the Fav ....................................... 65-94-2
As the Dog ...................................... 43-37

vs. Conference teams ..................... 75-80-1
vs. non-Conference teams .............. 33-51-1


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................. 48-57-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ................. 27-23

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 17-37-1
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 16-14


1st Game Back - Western teams

Overall .......................................... 130-120-5


As the Fav ...................................... 86-90-3
As the Dog ..................................... 44-30-2

vs. Conference teams .................... 80-69-2
vs. non-Conference teams ............. 50-51-3


vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................ 49-46-1
vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............... 31-23-1

vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ......... 37-44-2
vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ........ 13-7-1

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2nd game Back - Eastern teams

Home game ................................... 74-66-4
Road game .................................... 37-56-1


@Home as a Fav ........................... 47-49-2
@Home as a Dog .......................... 27-17-2

on the Road as a Fav .................... 13-9-1
on the Road as a Dog .................... 24-47


@Home vs. Conf teams ................ 46-48-4
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ......... 28-18

on the Road vs. Conf teams .......... 34-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams ..... 3-6


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ..................... 30-38-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog .................... 16-10-2

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 17-11
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .............. 11-7

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ............... 12-8-1
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog .............. 22-42

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav .......... 1-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ......... 2-5


2nd game Back - Western teams

Home game .................................. 63-91-2
Road game ................................... 34-56-2


@Home as a Fav ......................... 47-60-2
@Home as a Dog ........................ 16-31

on the Road as a Fav ................... 12-14
on the Road as a Dog .................. 22-42-2


@Home vs. Conf teams ............... 38-63-2
@Home vs. non-Conf teams ........ 25-28

on the Road vs. Conf teams ......... 28-50-1
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams .... 6-6-1


@Home vs. Conf teams as a Fav ...................... 29-37-2
@Home vs. Conf teams as a Dog ....................... 9-26

@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ............... 18-23
@Home vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog ................ 7-5

on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Fav ................ 11-12
on the Road vs. Conf teams as a Dog ............... 17-38-1

on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Fav ........... 1-2
on the Road vs. non-Conf teams as a Dog .......... 5-4-1

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Looking at the combined numbers in these categories that stay true in nature, no matter coming off a 4 or 5+ game road trip...

West - 2nd game as a Dog vs. Conf. teams .................. 33-75-1
4-11 in '13-14
3-9-1 in '14-15
6-10 in '15-16
5-8 in '16-17

West - 2nd game @Home vs. Conf. teams ................... 92-140-6
7-12 in '13-14
6-8 in '14-15
8-7 in '15-16
10-6 in '16-17

East - 2nd game @Home as a Fave vs. Conf. teams ... 57-68-3
2-4 in '13-14
4-5 in '14-15
8-0 in '15-16
8-5 in '16-17

East - 2nd game Away as a Dog vs. Conf. teams ........ 53-81-1
3-3 in '13-14
7-2 in '14-15
4-9 in '15-16
3-5-1 in '16-17

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The majority of teams do not win or lose both games ATS, rather they have a general tendency to split results over the 2 games (splits incl. a push result married w/either a win or loss)...

Off 4 game road trips (last 14 seasons)
Win both ......... 22.74%
Lose both ........ 29.32%
Split results ..... 47.94%

Off 5+ game road trips (last 14 seasons)
Win both ......... 21.65%
Lose both ........ 30.10%
Split results ..... 48.25%

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[BetCrimes1984]

Naturally there are some teams that seem to be either especially true to such trends, or defy them in an outstanding manner (the figures below are the 4 & 5+ game trip stats combined)...


Teams recently in keeping with the trends

Teams with the most noteworthy 1st game records over the last 6 seasons -

Milwaukee .......... 8-3
Oklahoma ........... 7-3
Brooklyn ............. 8-5

Notable mentions:
San Antonio has gone 4-1 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.
Portland has gone 8-4-1 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.


Teams with the worst 2nd game records over the last 6 seasons -

Phoenix .............. 4-14
Oklahoma ........... 2-7
Sacramento ........ 5-16
LA Lakers ........... 5-9-1
Milwaukee .......... 4-7

Notable mention: Philadelphia has gone 3-6 ATS in this spot over the last 4 seasons.


Teams recently bucking the trends

Teams with the worst 1st game records over the last 6 seasons -

Miami ................. 6-14
Charlotte ............ 6-12

Notable mention:
Utah has gone 4-9 ATS in this spot over the last 4 seasons.


Teams with the most noteworthy 2nd game records over the last 6 seasons -

Boston ............... 8-1-2
Chicago ............. 8-3-1
Portland ........... 17-7
Denver ............... 8-4
Toronto .............. 8-4-1
LA Clippers ...... 10-6-1

Notable mentions:
Golden State has gone 6-3 ATS in this spot over the last 3 seasons.
Orlando has gone 6-4 ATS in this spot over the last 4 seasons.


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These results will only be added collectively to the stats in the initial post at season's end.

Results based on opening lines (when a pick'em, the home team is designated a -0.5 Fav).


October

ATL off a 5 game trip
27th - Home Dog vs. DEN - Won
29th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Lost

November

DEN off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs. TOR - Won
3rd - Home Fave vs. MIA - Lost

WAS off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs. PHX - Lost
3rd - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost

SAS off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Dog vs. GSW - Lost
3rd - Home Fave vs. CHA - Won

TOR off a 6 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs. WAS - Lost
7th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Lost

PHX off a 5 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Lost
8th - Home Fave vs. MIA - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Won
13th - Home Fave vs. ATL - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. LAL - Won
13th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Won

BRK off a 5 game trip
14th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Won
17th - Home Dog vs. UTH - Won

CHA off a 4 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. CLE - Lost
17th - Road Fave vs. CHC - Lost

LAL off a 4 game trip
15th - Home Dog vs. PHI - Lost
17th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Lost

MIA off a 6 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. WAS - Lost
17th - Road Dog vs. WAS - Won

MEM off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. IND - Lost
18th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Lost

CLE off a 4 game trip
17th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Lost
20th - Road Fave vs. DET - Won

ORL off a 4 game trip
18th - Home Fave vs. UTH - Lost
20th - Home Fave vs. IND - Lost

PHI off a 6 game trip
18th - Home Dog vs. GSW - Won
20th - Home Fave vs. UTH - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
22nd - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
25th - Home Dog vs. MIL - Won

GSW off a 4 game trip
24th - Home Fave vs. CHC - Won
25th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won

CHC off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Dog vs. MIA - Push
28th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Lost

ORL off a 4 game trip
29th - Home Dog vs. OKC - Won
1st - Home Dog vs. GSW - Lost

POR off a 5 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs. MIL - Lost
2nd - Home Fave vs. NOR - Lost


December

MIA off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs. CHA - Won
3rd - Home Dog vs. GSW - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fave vs. SAC - Lost
4th - Road Dog vs. BOS - Lost

PHX off a 6 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs. WAS - Lost
9th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Won

DET off a 4 game trip
8th - Home Dog vs. GSW - Won
10th - Home Dog vs. BOS - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Dog vs. TOR - Lost
12th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won

GSW off a 6 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs. POR - Lost
14th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Won

WAS off a 5 game trip
13th - Home Fave vs. MEM - Lost
15th - Home Fave vs. LAC - Push

TOR off a 4 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won
17th - Home Fave vs. SAC - Won

DEN off a 6 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs. NOR - Won
18th - Road Dog vs. OKC - Won

LAL off a 4 game trip
18th - Home Dog vs. GSW - Won
20th - Road Dog vs. HOU - Won

LAC off a 4 game trip
20th - Home Fave vs. PHX - Won
22nd - Road Dog vs. HOU - Won

POR off a 5 game trip
20th - Home Dog vs. SAS - Lost
22nd - Home Fave vs. DEN - Lost

UTH off a 6 game trip
21st - Home Dog vs. SAS - Won
23rd - Home Fave vs. OKC - Lost

SAC off a 4 game trip
23rd - Home Dog vs. SAS - Lost
26th - Road Dog vs. LAC - Lost

NOR off a 4 game trip
27th - Home Fave vs. BRK - Won
29th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost

 

[BetCrimes1984]

January

PHI off a 5 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs SAS - Won
5th - Home Fave vs DET - Won

MEM off a 5 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs WAS - Won
10th - Home Dog vs NOR - Won

CHA off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs DAL - Lost
12th - Home Fave vs UTH - Won

ATL off a 5 game trip
12th - Home Fave vs BRK - Lost
15th - Home Dog vs SAS - Won

UTH off a 4 game trip
15th - Home Fave vs IND - Lost
17th - Road Fave vs SAC - Won

CLE off a 5 game trip
15th - Home Dog vs GSW - Lost
18th - Home Fave vs ORL - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
16th - Home Fave vs PHX - Lost
18th - Home Fave vs IND - Won

GSW off a 5 game trip
23rd - Home Fave vs NYK - Lost
25th - Home Fave vs MIN - Won

IND off a 5 game trip
24th - Home Fave vs PHX - Won
26th - Road Dog vs CLE - Lost

MIA off a 5 game trip
25th - Home Fave vs SAC - Lost
27th - Home Fave vs CHA - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
26th - Home Dog vs NYK - Lost
28th - Road Dog vs HOU - Won

NYK off a 4 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs BRK - Won
31st - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

WAS off a 5 game trip
30th - Home Dog vs OKC - Won
1st - Home Dog vs TOR - Won

BRK off a 5 game trip
31st - Home Dog vs PHI - Won
2nd - Home Fave vs LAL - Lost

BOS off a 4 game trip
31st - Home Fave vs NYK - Won
2nd - Home Fave vs ATL - Won


February

SAC off a 6 game trip
2nd - Home Dog vs GSW - Lost
3rd - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

PHI off a 4 game trip
2nd - Home Fave vs MIA - Won
3rd - Road Dog vs IND - Lost

MIA off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Fave vs ORL - Lost
7th - Home Dog vs HOU - Lost

LAL off a 6 game trip
6th - Home Fave vs PHX - Won
8th - Home Fave vs OKC - Won

MEM off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Dog vs UTH - Won
11th - Road Dog vs OKC - Lost

UTH off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs CHA - Won
11th - Road Dog vs POR - Won

HOU off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Fave vs. DEN - Won
11th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Lost

DAL off a 4 game trip
10th - Home Fave vs LAL - Won
11th - Road Dog vs HOU - Won

CHA off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs TOR - Lost
14th - Road Fave vs ORL - Lost

MIL off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Fave vs ATL - Lost
15th - Home Fave vs DEN - Lost


March

LAL off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs POR - Lost
7th - Home Fave vs ORL - Lost

IND off a 4 game trip
7th - Home Fave vs UTH - Lost
9th - Home Fave vs ATL - Won

NOR off a 4 game trip
9th - Home Dog vs WAS - Lost
11th - Home Dog vs UTH - Lost

NYK off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs TOR - Lost
13th - Home Dog vs DAL - Lost

BRK off a 5 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs PHI - Lost
13th - Home Dog vs TOR - Lost

HOU off a 4 game trip
12th - Home Fave vs SAS - Won
15th - Home Fave vs LAC - Lost

PHI off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Fave vs IND - Lost
15th - Road Fave vs NYK - Lost

PHX off a 4 game trip
13th - Home Dog vs CLE - Lost
15th - Road Dog vs UTH - Lost

ORL off a 5 game trip
14th - Home Dog vs MIL - Lost
16th - Road Dog vs BOS - Lost

CLE off a 6 game trip
19th - Home Fave vs MIL - Won
21st - Home Fave vs TOR - Won

CHA off a 5 game trip
22nd - Home Fave vs MEM - Won
24th - Road Fave vs DAL - Won

DAL off a 4 game trip
22nd - Home Dog vs UTH - Won
24th - Home Dog vs CHA - Lost

DET off a 6 game trip
24th - Home Fave vs CHC - Won
26th - Home Fave vs LAL - Won

LAC off a 4 game trip
27th - Home Fave vs MIL - Won
28th - Road Fave vs PHX - Won

LAL off a 4 game trip
28th - Home Fave vs. DAL - Won
30th - Home Fave vs. MIL - Lost

ATL off a 6 game trip
30th - Home Fave vs PHI - Lost
1st - Home Fave vs ORL - Won

BOS off a 4 game trip
31st - Home Fave vs TOR - Won
3rd - Road Dog vs MIL - Lost

 

[BetCrimes1984]

April

DEN off a 7 game trip
1st - Home Fave vs MIL - Lost
3rd - Home Fave vs IND - Lost

CHC off a 4 game trip
1st - Home Dog vs WAS - Won
3rd - Home Dog vs CHA - Won

MIL off a 4 game trip
3rd - Home Fave vs BOS - Won
5th - Home Fave vs BRK - Lost

IND off a 4 game trip
5th - Home Dog vs GSW - Won
6th - Road Dog vs TOR - Lost

POR off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Fave vs UTH - Won
No 2nd game.

SAC off a 4 game trip
11th - Home Dog vs. HOU - Won
No 2nd game.

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Overall results for the 2017-18 season -
Teams playing 1st off 4 game trips ......
Teams playing 2nd off 4 game trips .....

Teams playing 1st off 5+ game trips ....
Teams playing 2nd off 5+ game trips ...

Combined Results
Teams playing 1st off 4+ game trips ....
Teams playing 2nd off 4+ game trips ...

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As usual, the schedule makers have seen fit to be cruel to a number of teams (opponents in bolded blue also playing b2b)...

Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 1 day's rest since their trip's end

SAS off a 4 game trip
2nd Nov. - Home vs. GSW - Lost
3rd Nov. - Home vs. CHA - Won

GSW off a 4 game trip
24th Nov. - Home vs. CHC - Won
25th Nov. - Home vs. NOR - Won

PHI off a 4 game trip
2nd Feb. - Home vs. MIA - Won
3rd Feb. - Away vs. IND - Lost

DAL off a 4 game trip
10th Feb. - Home vs. LAL - Won
11th Feb. - Away vs. HOU - Won

LAC off a 4 game trip
27th Mar. - Home vs. MIL - Won
28th Mar. - Away vs. PHX - Won

IND off a 4 game trip
5th Apr. - Home vs. GSW - Won
6th Apr. - Away vs. TOR - Lost


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 2 days rest since their trip's end

SAC off a 6 game trip
2nd Feb. - Home vs. GSW - Lost
3rd Feb. - Home vs. DAL - Lost


Playing their 1st & 2nd games back B2B off 3 days rest since their trip's end

NYK off a 7 game trip
30th Jan. - Home vs. BRK - Won
31st Jan. - Away vs. BOS - Lost

--------

Overall results (last 21 seasons)

1st game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip.: 91-116-5 .... 44.9% win rate
2nd game in b2b off a 4+ game road trip: 87-120-5 .... 42.2% win rate

Either game off any rest vs. opponent NOT playing b2b: 119-171-7 ... 40.1% win rate
Either game off any rest vs. an opponent playing b2b:..... 59-65-3 ..... 46.5% win rate


1st Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 30-44-3
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 32-36-1
Overall: 62-80-4

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: _8-22-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 21-14
Overall: 29-36-1


2nd Game Back

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 27-41-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent NOT playing b2b: 30-50-2
Overall: 57-91-3

1 day of rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 17-14-1
2+ days rest off road trip + opponent playing b2b: 13-15-1
Overall: 30-29-2


Result Sequences (do not include those involving Pushes)

Sequence ......... W-W ... W-L ... L-W ... L-L
1 day of rest ....... 19 ..... 18 ..... 24 .... 36
2+ days rest ....... 27 ..... 24 ..... 12 .... 42

Looking at these results in comparison to one another on a rest basis -
The first obvious thing here is the unsurprising fact that teams off longer rest have recorded a significantly higher percentage of Win-Win sequences relative to their overall results (25.7%) than those off the shorter rest relative to their own overall results (19.5%). The percentage of Loss-Loss sequences are almost identical (shorter rest's 37.1% vs. longer rest's 40.0%) so there's no advantage to betting a loss in the 2nd game after knowledge of a 1st game loss in one situation or the other. The remaining standout figure is for the Loss-Win sequences. The biggest discrepancy between the two rest situations is seen with these: they only account for 11.4% of the overall results for the greater rest situations, yet they account for 24.7% of the results for the shorter rest situations.

Looking at these results within each rest grouping -

- Teams who have won their 1st game have pretty much been a 51-53% shot to win their 2nd game, no matter what the nature of their rest off their recent road trip.

- Teams who have lost their 1st game off short rest have lost their 2nd game at a 60.0% rate, but off longer rest have lost their subsequent 2nd game at a much more significant 77.7% rate.

It's definitely worth paying some attention to the result of the 1st game, when it comes to ascertaining what's worth betting for the 2nd game.

-------

 

[B.A.R.]

There he is. season officially underway.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just in the nick of time, too:cheers6: