NBA 08-09 Season Trend Results

[BetCrimes1984]

This is the 5th season I'll be tracking Basketball results through the lense of the *Run(-of-Result)s Trend*. For those who aren't familiar with what this is all about, post #2 in this thread pretty much explains everything in depth, as well as can be explained.

Not for all, but for me its now the first pillar for my considering any play.

-------------------------------------------------------

This trend is a method of tracking how Venue, Total & ATS results (sequentially) express themselves, and from there learning the nuances of those patterns of expression to anticipate future results.


- Games are ordered time sequentially, and where a number of games start at the same time they are ordered alphabetically, home team first.

- All figures based on opening lines

- Unassigned results are results which can't yet be said to belong to the current run in place, or be said to constitute a new run, without further results occurring.

- It takes a minimum of 4 results for the dominant side to make for a new run (the exception being to start and end - first & last runs - the season's recording)


The basic marks from the last 3 seasons tracking:

Run lengths....
Normal range .......... 5-15
High range ........... 16-19
Saturation point .... 20+

The unfavoured total/side/venue within a run....
Normal range .......... 0-3
High range ............ 4-5
Saturation point .... 6+

Run advantages -/+....
Normal range .......... 3-6
High range ............ 7-9
Saturation point .... 10+

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The website I used to record the first season of these results has long since deleted the threads from which I can relate said numbers, but that's not the case for the last 3 seasons -

Totals (O/U)
05-06 .... -308 / +314
06-07 .... -339 / +289
07-08 .... -313 / +328

ATS (Fav/Dog)
05-06 .... -299 / +290
06-07 .... -301 / +323
07-08 .... -316 / +272

Venue (Home/Road)
05-06 .... -274 / +291
06-07 .... -281 / +346
07-08 .... -299 / +293

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[BetCrimes1984]

08-09 Flow Charts

Totals

prev 23 games: Under..... 15-8 advantage..... +7
prev _7 games: Over......... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev 24 games: Under..... 17-7 advantage.... +10
prev 23 games: Over........ 17-6 advantage...... -11
prev 14 games: Under..... 10-3 advantage..... +7 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage........ -4
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev _7 games: Under....... 4-3 advantage..... +1
prev _8 games: Over......... 5-3 advantage........ -2
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev _5 games: Over......... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev 14 games: Under....... 9-5 advantage..... +4
prev 16 games: Over........ 11-5 advantage....... -6
prev 19 games: Under..... 13-6 advantage..... +7
prev 16 games: Over........ 12-4 advantage....... -8
prev _4 games: Under....... 4-0 advantage..... +4
prev _9 games: Over......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev 14 games: Under....... 9-5 advantage..... +4
prev 15 games: Over........ 11-3 advantage....... -8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage..... +5
prev 18 games: Over........ 14-4 advantage...... -10
prev 27 games: Under..... 18-9 advantage..... +9
prev 32 games: Over........ 21-9 advantage...... -12 ..(+2 Pushes)
prev _6 games: Under....... 6-0 advantage..... +6
prev _6 games: Over......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev 40 games: Under.... 29-11 advantage... +18
prev _9 games: Over......... 8-1 advantage........ -7
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3
prev _6 games: Over......... 5-1 advantage........ -4
prev 13 games: Under..... 10-3 advantage..... +7
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 15 games: Under..... 12-3 advantage..... +9
prev 13 games: Over......... 9-3 advantage........ -6 ...(+1 Push)
prev _8 games: Under....... 6-2 advantage..... +4
prev 12 games: Over......... 8-4 advantage........ -4
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev _7 games: Over......... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev _8 games: Under....... 5-3 advantage..... +2
prev 11 games: Over......... 9-2 advantage........ -7
prev _7 games: Under....... 7-0 advantage..... +7
prev _5 games: Over......... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev 11 games: Over......... 9-1 advantage........ -8 ...(+1 Push)
prev 11 games: Under....... 8-3 advantage..... +5
prev 24 games: Over....... 16-7 advantage........ -9 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Under....... 4-2 advantage..... +2
prev 17 games: Over....... 13-3 advantage....... -10 ...(+1 Push)
prev 14 games: Under..... 10-4 advantage..... +6
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 15 games: Under..... 12-3 advantage..... +9
prev 12 games: Over....... 10-2 advantage........ -8
prev _7 games: Under....... 4-3 advantage..... +1
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev 19 games: Under..... 14-4 advantage.... +10 ...(+1 Push)
prev 14 games: Over....... 10-4 advantage........ -6
prev _7 games: Under....... 6-1 advantage..... +5
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev 16 games: Over....... 13-3 advantage....... -10
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev 27 games: Over....... 21-6 advantage....... -15
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3
prev 10 games: Over......... 8-2 advantage........ -6
prev _8 games: Under....... 7-1 advantage..... +6
prev _7 games: Over......... 6-1 advantage........ -5
prev 15 games: Under..... 11-4 advantage..... +7
prev _8 games: Over......... 7-1 advantage........ -6
prev _4 games: Under....... 4-0 advantage..... +4
prev _4 games: Over......... 4-0 advantage........ -4
prev _9 games: Under....... 6-3 advantage..... +3
prev _9 games: Over......... 8-0 advantage........ -8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Under....... 5-2 advantage..... +3
prev _9 games: Over......... 6-3 advantage........ -3
prev _5 games: Under....... 4-1 advantage..... +3
prev 16 games: Over....... 11-5 advantage........ -6
prev 13 games: Under..... 11-2 advantage..... +9
prev 12 games: Over......... 8-4 advantage........ -4
prev 18 games: Under..... 14-4 advantage.... +10
prev _7 games: Over......... 4-2 advantage........ -2 ...(+1 Push)
prev _8 games: Under....... 5-3 advantage..... +2
prev _7 games: Over......... 6-1 advantage........ -5
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage..... +5
prev _8 games: Over......... 7-1 advantage........ -6
prev _7 games: Under....... 6-1 advantage..... +5
prev _9 games: Over......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev _4 games: Under....... 4-0 advantage..... +4
prev 11 games: Over......... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev _8 games: Under....... 5-3 advantage..... +2
prev _5 games: Over......... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev 13 games: Under..... 12-0 advantage.... +12 ..(+1 Push)
prev 11 games: Over......... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev 12 games: Under....... 9-3 advantage..... +6
prev _5 games: Over......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 10 games: Under....... 8-2 advantage..... +6
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev 29 games: Under..... 21-8 advantage.... +13
prev 21 games: Over....... 14-7 advantage........ -7
prev _4 games: Under....... 4-0 advantage..... +4
prev 11 games: Over......... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev _7 games: Under....... 6-1 advantage..... +5
prev 22 games: Over....... 19-3 advantage....... -16
prev _6 games: Under....... 6-0 advantage..... +6
prev 16 games: Over....... 11-5 advantage........ -6
prev 15 games: Under..... 10-5 advantage..... +5
prev 10 games: Over......... 9-1 advantage........ -8
prev _5 games: Under....... 5-0 advantage..... +5
prev _9 games: Over......... 5-3 advantage........ -2 ...(+1 Push)
prev 21 games: Under..... 15-6 advantage..... +9
prev _7 games: Over......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _9 games: Under....... 6-3 advantage..... +3

Over -315 / Under +319


...

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ATS

prev _3 games: Fav.......... 2-1 advantage........ -1
prev 10 games: Dog......... 9-1 advantage...... +8
prev 11 games: Fav.......... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev _7 games: Dog......... 4-3 advantage...... +1
prev 17 games: Fav........ 12-5 advantage........ -7
prev _6 games: Dog......... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 10 games: Fav.......... 7-2 advantage........ -5 ...(+1 Push)
prev 10 games: Dog......... 9-1 advantage...... +8
prev 11 games: Fav.......... 9-2 advantage........ -7
prev 16 games: Dog....... 12-4 advantage...... +8
prev _7 games: Fav.......... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev 25 games: Dog....... 19-6 advantage..... +13
prev _9 games: Fav.......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev _9 games: Fav.......... 8-1 advantage........ -7
prev _8 games: Dog......... 7-1 advantage...... +6
prev 29 games: Fav........ 20-8 advantage....... -12 ...(+1 Push)
prev _9 games: Dog......... 7-2 advantage...... +5
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _8 games: Dog......... 4-3 advantage...... +1 ...(+1 Push)
prev 17 games: Fav........ 11-6 advantage........ -5
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev 13 games: Fav.......... 8-4 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)
prev 11 games: Dog......... 8-2 advantage...... +6 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Fav.......... 6-0 advantage........ -6 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Dog......... 6-1 advantage...... +5
prev _9 games: Fav.......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev 28 games: Dog....... 20-8 advantage..... +12
prev 11 games: Fav.......... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev 11 games: Dog......... 8-3 advantage...... +5
prev _4 games: Fav.......... 4-0 advantage........ -4
prev 16 games: Dog....... 13-2 advantage..... +11 ..(+1 Push)
prev 23 games: Fav........ 17-5 advantage....... -12 ..(+1 Push)
prev 15 games: Dog....... 13-1 advantage..... +12 ..(+1 Push)
prev 16 games: Fav........ 12-4 advantage........ -8
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _6 games: Dog......... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 10 games: Fav.......... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev _8 games: Dog......... 6-2 advantage...... +4
prev 10 games: Fav.......... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev _9 games: Dog......... 6-2 advantage...... +4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Fav.......... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev _5 games: Fav.......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 15 games: Dog....... 12-3 advantage...... +9
prev _5 games: Fav.......... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev 10 games: Dog....... 10-0 advantage..... +10
prev _7 games: Fav.......... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev _5 games: Dog......... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev _8 games: Fav.......... 6-1 advantage........ -5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Dog......... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 5-1 advantage........ -4
prev 26 games: Dog....... 19-7 advantage..... +12
prev 12 games: Fav.......... 8-3 advantage........ -5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _8 games: Dog......... 6-2 advantage...... +4
prev _9 games: Fav.......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev _6 games: Dog......... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 17 games: Fav........ 14-3 advantage....... -11
prev _4 games: Dog......... 4-0 advantage...... +4
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev 10 games: Dog......... 9-1 advantage...... +8
prev 45 games: Fav....... 31-14 advantage....... -17
prev _5 games: Dog......... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev 20 games: Fav........ 15-5 advantage....... -10
prev 23 games: Dog....... 16-6 advantage..... +10 ..(+1 Push)
prev 10 games: Fav.......... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev 10 games: Dog......... 8-1 advantage...... +7 ...(+1 Push)
prev 12 games: Fav........ 10-5 advantage........ -5
prev _4 games: Dog......... 4-0 advantage...... +4
prev 10 games: Fav.......... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev _5 games: Dog......... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev 20 games: Fav........ 15-5 advantage....... -10
prev _5 games: Dog......... 4-0 advantage...... +4 ...(+1 Push)
prev 17 games: Fav........ 13-4 advantage........ -9
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev 18 games: Fav........ 13-4 advantage........ -9 ...(+1 Push)
prev 12 games: Dog......... 9-3 advantage...... +6
prev _5 games: Fav.......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 10 games: Dog......... 9-1 advantage...... +8
prev 25 games: Fav........ 19-6 advantage....... -13
prev _8 games: Dog......... 5-3 advantage...... +2
prev 14 games: Fav........ 11-3 advantage........ -8
prev 22 games: Dog....... 18-4 advantage..... +14
prev _5 games: Fav.......... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 12 games: Dog......... 8-4 advantage...... +4
prev _9 games: Fav.......... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev _4 games: Dog......... 4-0 advantage...... +4
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-1 advantage...... +3 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev 25 games: Dog....... 18-7 advantage..... +11
prev _4 games: Fav.......... 4-0 advantage........ -4
prev _6 games: Dog......... 6-0 advantage...... +6
prev 12 games: Fav........ 10-2 advantage........ -8
prev _6 games: Dog......... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev _7 games: Fav.......... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev _6 games: Dog......... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 11 games: Fav........ 10-1 advantage........ -9
prev _7 games: Dog......... 5-2 advantage...... +3
prev 13 games: Fav........ 10-3 advantage........ -7
prev _7 games: Dog......... 6-1 advantage...... +5
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _9 games: Dog......... 6-3 advantage...... +3
prev 27 games: Fav........ 19-8 advantage....... -11
prev 23 games: Dog....... 16-7 advantage...... +9
prev _6 games: Fav.......... 5-1 advantage........ -4
prev 11 games: Dog......... 7-2 advantage...... +5 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev 26 games: Fav........ 18-7 advantage....... -11 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Dog......... 4-2 advantage...... +2
last. 11 games: Fav.......... 7-3 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)

Fav -316 / Dog +309


...

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Venue

prev _3 games: Home....... 2-1 advantage........ -1
prev 15 games: Road..... 12-3 advantage...... +9
prev 11 games: Home....... 9-2 advantage........ -7
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage...... +4
prev _8 games: Home....... 5-3 advantage........ -2
prev 15 games: Road..... 11-3 advantage...... +8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _8 games: Home....... 7-1 advantage........ -6
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _4 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage...... +4
prev _7 games: Home....... 6-1 advantage........ -5
prev 24 games: Road..... 21-3 advantage..... +18
prev _8 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage........ -4
prev _9 games: Road....... 7-2 advantage...... +5
prev _8 games: Home....... 7-1 advantage........ -6
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage...... +4
prev _8 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage........ -4
prev 25 games: Road..... 16-8 advantage...... +8 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev 16 games: Road..... 12-4 advantage...... +8
prev _8 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage........ -1 ...(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev _7 games: Road....... 4-3 advantage...... +1
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev _8 games: Road....... 6-1 advantage...... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Home....... 5-0 advantage........ -5
prev _9 games: Road....... 6-2 advantage...... +4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-1 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage...... +3
prev _8 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage........ -4
prev 10 games: Road....... 8-2 advantage...... +6
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _7 games: Road....... 4-3 advantage...... +1
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev 20 games: Road..... 15-5 advantage..... +10
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 21 games: Road..... 15-5 advantage..... +10 ...(+1 Push)
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev _8 games: Road....... 5-3 advantage...... +2
prev _9 games: Home....... 6-2 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)
prev 13 games: Road....... 9-3 advantage...... +6 ...(+1 Push)
prev 17 games: Home..... 13-4 advantage........ -9
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev _9 games: Home....... 6-3 advantage........ -3
prev 10 games: Road....... 8-2 advantage...... +6
prev _9 games: Home....... 7-2 advantage........ -5
prev 15 games: Road..... 10-4 advantage...... +6 ...(+1 Push)
prev 12 games: Home....... 9-3 advantage........ -6
prev _9 games: Road....... 7-2 advantage...... +5
prev 14 games: Home..... 12-2 advantage....... -10
prev 12 games: Road....... 9-3 advantage...... +6
prev 15 games: Home..... 11-3 advantage........ -9 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev 11 games: Home....... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev 14 games: Road..... 14-0 advantage..... +14
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage...... +4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _6 games: Home....... 6-0 advantage........ -6
prev 11 games: Road....... 8-3 advantage...... +5
prev _7 games: Home....... 4-3 advantage........ -1
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 16 games: Home..... 12-4 advantage........ -8
prev _5 games: Road....... 5-0 advantage...... +5
prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev 16 games: Home..... 11-5 advantage........ -6
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 11 games: Home....... 8-3 advantage........ -5
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage...... +3
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev _6 games: Road....... 6-0 advantage...... +6
prev _4 games: Home....... 4-0 advantage........ -4
prev 11 games: Road....... 8-3 advantage...... +5
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev _7 games: Home....... 5-2 advantage........ -3
prev _7 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage...... +2 ...(+1 Push)
prev 11 games: Home....... 7-4 advantage........ -3
prev 10 games: Road....... 7-2 advantage...... +5 ...(+1 Push)
prev 16 games: Home..... 12-4 advantage........ -8
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage...... +3
prev 17 games: Home..... 13-4 advantage........ -9
prev 18 games: Road..... 12-6 advantage...... +6
prev 32 games: Home..... 25-6 advantage....... -19 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev _6 games: Road....... 5-1 advantage...... +4
prev 10 games: Home....... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev 18 games: Road..... 13-5 advantage...... +8
prev _7 games: Home....... 6-1 advantage........ -5
prev _4 games: Road....... 4-0 advantage...... +4
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev _7 games: Home....... 7-0 advantage........ -7
prev _8 games: Road....... 5-3 advantage...... +2
prev 14 games: Home..... 10-4 advantage........ -6
prev _7 games: Road....... 5-2 advantage...... +3
prev _4 games: Home....... 4-0 advantage........ -4
prev _9 games: Road....... 7-2 advantage...... +5
prev 10 games: Home....... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev 12 games: Road..... 10-2 advantage...... +8
prev 14 games: Home..... 11-3 advantage........ -8
prev _9 games: Road....... 5-3 advantage...... +2 ...(+1 Push)
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 21 games: Road..... 15-6 advantage...... +9
prev _6 games: Home....... 4-2 advantage........ -2
prev 17 games: Road..... 13-4 advantage...... +9
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-1 advantage........ -3
prev 15 games: Road..... 10-5 advantage...... +5
prev 10 games: Home....... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev 16 games: Home..... 15-1 advantage....... -14
prev 15 games: Road..... 10-5 advantage...... +5
prev 10 games: Home....... 7-3 advantage........ -4
prev _7 games: Road....... 4-3 advantage...... +1
prev 15 games: Home..... 10-5 advantage........ -5
prev 31 games: Road..... 24-7 advantage..... +17
prev 13 games: Home....... 9-2 advantage........ -7 ...(+2 Pushes)
prev _5 games: Road....... 4-1 advantage...... +3
prev _6 games: Home....... 6-0 advantage........ -6
prev _6 games: Road....... 4-2 advantage...... +2
prev _5 games: Home....... 4-0 advantage........ -4 ...(+1 Push)
prev _9 games: Road....... 6-3 advantage...... +3
last. _9 games: Home....... 5-3 advantage........ -2 ...(+1 Push)

Home -303 / Road +320


...

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Updates current to the end of the 08-09 regular season.​

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Unassigned results hint at the end of the present run.
Unassigned results point to the end of the present run.
Unassigned results strongly indicate the end of the present run.
Further results are needed to clarify matters.
The present run has ended but further results are needed to clarify run boundaries.

 

[JPicks]

Wow. Jazz and the over meets about every criteria for tonight. Road teams, overs and dog run. Interesting.


Honestly just wanted to say thanks yet again for this awesome thread.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thnx, JP. That road section streak of single digit run lengths is getting noticable. If the present road run doesn't reach DD in size, expect us to see one very shortly. The longest streak of single digit run lengths for the Venue tracking has been 7 (twice).

 

[JPicks]

First big fav run?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - of the last 25 games played, the only ones won by the Dog SU have been those who opened catching less than a basket (+1/+1.5) = 19 straight Favs opening -2 or more have won SU. So I'd say the impetus for SU Dog winners of +2 or more to reappear supercedes this current fav run.

 

[JPicks]

Good to hear as I'm on a couple money line dogs. I was thinking late last night that there hasn't been many big dog winners last couple of days. I appreciate you having the stats to back that up. :shake:

 

[JPicks]

Home team is getting SMOKED.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

it's 06-07 all over again, possibly ending up even worse

 

[JPicks]

I've been patiently waiting for the first sign of a 20-4 run for the home teams to square things back up, but maybe it's not coming. Either way this thread has me really gun shy with the Bobcats right now as it seems either the Heat or Thunder cover.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Heat or Thunder? why not Mempiss:36_11_6:


Seriously thou, even before a home run of "massive" dominance, wheres the home run of simply a length greater than 11 games? You only need a number like 8-4 (-4) to manage such a feat, nowhere near one w/a significant mark of dominance. We've simply had no extended sequence of games where the home team has put up a fight.

Home teams have been consistent in length, but simply short. 13 of 16 runs at least 7 games in length, none greater than 11 games.

 

[AtlHawks]

Looking for some unders this weekend...


How about you?




Let me hear some of them leans!
:smiley_acbe:

 

[AtlHawks]

BC-

I played Philly, Atlanta, Jersey, Boston, Memphis and Lakers all unders 5-0 so far.
Had 199.5 in Mem.

You truly are the greatest asset on this board.:cheers:



Have some of this... money;

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Congrats Hawks:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Amazing to have an 8-0 under run followed right back up with a 5-0 over run pretty much all in the same night. Some things never change though as the home teams got bitch slapped yet again.

 

[GWarner27]

help!

...so this is a track record each night for home teams ATS and then o/u?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

No, its not tracking separately each individual night. Post #2 in this thread explains it as well as anything I can post here.

 

[JPicks]

There is no home court in the NBA. :36_11_6:

Unreal.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Home sides had managed a 22-8/-14 mark the previous 5 runs, eating into that season lead then bam. All that made up ground disappears in one swoop.

 

[JPicks]

Home sides had managed a 22-8/-14 mark the previous 5 runs, eating into that season lead then bam. All that made up ground disappears in one swoop.

Trust me I've been paying attention. NEVER, EVER saw this run coming though. Seriously shocked and trying to make a bit more sense of it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Road Favs are 78-70-5 ATS. The blanket myth of Home Doggie value is simply that - myth.

 

[JPicks]

Road Favs are 78-70-5 ATS. The myth of Home Doggie value is simply that - myth.

Oh man. Killa is going to hate seeing me send that his way. Always giving me shit for betting road favs.

Back to the trend though. I'm loving OKC, BOS, and SAN even more tomorrow. I may just say screw it and bet all the home teams tomorrow after this run.

 

[JPicks]

Have to ask. How can 1 over be unassigned after the results of the 20th were recorded when the Kings/Nuggets game was the last game played tonight and it went under?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I've got the Denver & Utah games both starting at 9pm, Utah gets listed 2nd (last) due to alphabetical ordering of home teams.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks BC. Thought you did it by rotation #, but that makes sense. :shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

JP - something to think about:

Road Favs are now 108-87-5 on the season = 21 game difference

The Road side is up 42 games over the Home side (+205 to -163) = 42 game difference

If Home Dogs were even with road Favs, then so would be the Home/Road sides chart (reverse 21 results the other way = complete eradication of the 42 game difference).

Road fav performances completely explain the disjointed H/A results.

 

[JPicks]

JP - something to think about:

Road Favs are now 108-87-5 on the season = 21 game difference

The Road side is up 42 games over the Home side (+205 to -163) = 42 game difference

If Home Dogs were even with road Favs, then so would be the Home/Road sides chart (reverse 21 results the other way = complete eradication of the 42 game difference).

Road fav performances completely explain the disjointed H/A results.

Like the way you're thinking with that. It's not so much that the road dogs are sneaking under the # but more that the road favs are taking care of business. Appreciate you splitting it out like that. I do wonder if we can expect it to go back to even though? To me it seems that there are more educated bettors these days that like taking the home dog and are keeping the spreads on road favorites lower. The typical "sharp" bet is becoming trendy taking the small home dog. Going to spend the all star game break taking a look to see how this scenario is affecting what I've bet so far. Appreciate the breakdown.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Over -299 / Under +297

Fav -294 / Dog +294

For those people who think there's somehow an advantage to playing 1 particular side or total in the NBA, the stats at the end of this day (April 4th) don't do much to support such sentiments. Into the last month of the reg. season, after 100s of games, and side results are dead set even while there's only been 2 more Overs than Unders (unassigned results included into overall figures).