NBA 06-07 230/100-100 Thread




BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Briefly, for those unfamiliar with this -

Early in the 05-06 season, I noticed that teams coming off being involved
in a game that totaled 230+ points, where both teams scored 100+ points individually, had a seeming predisposition to deliver Under results in their next game. That early season Under bias evened out more as the season went on, but there remained specific spots where Under results were delivered more readily (in some cases, emphatically).

The bottom line has been teams playing first following such a game deliver Under more readily than teams playing second. It makes sense this be so since playing second usually means at least 1 days extra rest over the team playing first.

What's below are those stats from last season and the tracking of stats for this season.

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First, the exceptions. The following teams stats I have excluded from the overall records from last season (and will exclude from this season). They have shown a clear bias to buck this trend off such games, which will come as no suprise given their playing styles....

Overall
O/U 10-4 ... Phoenix
O/U 4-1 ..... Milwaukee
O/U 3-1 ..... Golden State
O/U 5-3 ..... Washington

The following teams (their stats still included in the overall numbers) also had records with a subsequently high Over presence, but where the split between playing 1st or 2nd had a significant impact on what result they produced...

Playing 1st .. Playing 2nd .. Total
O/U 1-4 ....... O/U 5-1 ........ O/U 6-5 ... Toronto
O/U 1-3 ....... O/U 3-1 ........ O/U 4-4 ... Seattle

Looking through these 6 teams names, its easy to identify not only why they appeared so often in such games, but also why they had their share of Over results following them.

When it comes to the first 4 teams listed, its simply not worth playing Under at anytime - when it comes to the latter 2, its not worth playing Under if they're playing second off such a game, at anytime.

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All results based on opening lines & regulation scores.

Opponent Results for 05-06


Playing First, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 5-4 ............. U/O 4-1 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 4-2 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-2 ............. U/O 4-0 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-2 ............. U/O --- ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 1-6 ............. U/O 4-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-3 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-2 ............. U/O 2-2 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 2-2 ............. U/O 1-2 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents

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Sequence Results for 05-06

Off a Win, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-2 ............. U/O 3-0 ...... playing first
U/O 3-6 ............. U/O 2-2 ...... playing second


Off a Win, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-0 ............. U/O 1-0 ...... playing first
U/O 4-3 ............. U/O 1-4 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 5-4 ............. U/O 2-2 ...... playing first
U/O 1-3 ............. U/O 3-0 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 3-4 ............. U/O 3-0 ...... playing first
U/O 2-1 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... playing second

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Margin Results for 05-06

Playing First ........ Playing Second
U/O 8-0 .............. U/O 5-4 .... Off a 1-3 pt margin result
U/O 6-7 .............. U/O 6-5 .... Off a 4-6 pt margin result
U/O 4-3 .............. U/O 5-6 .... off a 7-9 pt margin result
U/O 4-2 .............. U/O 3-4 .... off a 10+ pt margin result

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Results for the current season**

All results based on opening lines & regulation scores.

Opponent Results for 06-07


Playing First, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-6 ............. U/O 4-1 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 1-1 ............. U/O 1-1 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing First, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 6-4 ............. U/O 3-3 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-1 ............. U/O --- ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 5-3 ............. U/O 3-4 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 3-1 ............. U/O 0-3 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents


Playing Second, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 7-5 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... vs Conference Opponents
U/O 1-1 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... vs non-Conference Opponents

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Sequence Results for 06-07

Off a Win, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 1-3 ............. U/O 3-1 ...... playing first
U/O 4-2 ............. U/O 0-2 ...... playing second


Off a Win, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 4-3 ............. U/O 3-3 ...... playing first
U/O 5-2 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, @Home

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 2-4 ............. U/O 2-1 ...... playing first
U/O 4-2 ............. U/O 3-5 ...... playing second


Off a Loss, on the Road

Off Regulation ..... Off OT
U/O 5-2 ............. U/O --- ...... playing first
U/O 3-4 ............. U/O 2-0 ...... playing second

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Margin Results for 06-07

Playing First ........ Playing Second
U/O 4-4 .............. U/O 2-2 .... off a 1-3 pt margin result
U/O 6-3 .............. U/O 9-3 .... off a 4-6 pt margin result
U/O 3-5 .............. U/O 3-7 .... off a 7-9 pt margin result
U/O 7-5 .............. U/O 9-5 .... off a 10+ pt margin result


*Pushes & Repeat match-up results are not recorded here.

** I will not be entering any results from Phoenix, Milwaukee, Washington, Memphis or Golden State here this season.
 
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MEM 117 --played 2nd---> @Home vs CHR = Under
NYK 118 --played 1st----> on the road vs ATL = Under
3OT

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LAK 118
SEA 112 ------> these teams played a rematch = Over

This is the first time I've recorded 2 teams having a repeat match-up off a 230/100-100 game, meaning no team can be said to be playing 2nd, here. Looking at this game through the lense of last years results, this rematch aspect makes a difficult task....

Last Season
Teams playing 1st @home vs Conf teams off reg. were 5-4 to Under (SEA)
Teams playing 1st on the road vs Conf teams off reg. were U/O 2-2 (LA).

Teams playing 1st, off a win, on the road, off reg. = 2-0 to Under (LA)
Teams playing 1st, off a loss, @home, off reg. = 5-4 to Under (SEA)

Playing 1st off a 4-6 pt margin result = U/O 8-7 (both teams)

Theres nothing emphatic pointing to Under in this spot, except Seattle last year was 3-1 to Under playing 1st off a 230/100-100 game.
LA & Seattle played out a 230/100-100 game in Seattle last season.

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WAS 124 ---played 1st---> on the road vs ORL = Over
BOS 117 ---played 2nd---> @home vs CHR = Over

Last season
Teams playing 2nd @home vs Conf teams off reg. were 7-1 to Over (BOS)

Teams playing 2nd off a loss @home off reg. were 6-1 to Over (BOS)

Playing 2nd off a 7-9 pt margin result = 7-5 to Over (BOS)

 
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Well there is no data on that thing, where a team plays the same team twice in a row...

But The Orlando-Washington UNDER looks pretty tasty Monday...
 
As a Bucks fan im not shocked they are one of the 3 excluded teams. They sure can score, but stoping the other team is tough for them. They are in a way the Eastern version of the Suns.
 
Coppsguy - yeah (sorry I had to delete that previously). Just so long as they stay true to form this season, from this thread's vantage point its all good.
 
NOR 116 --played 1st--> on the road vs POR = Under
GDS 121 --played 2nd--> @home vs DET = Under

Last Season
- Teams playing 1st off reg, on the road vs Conf teams = U/O 2-2 (NOR)

- Teams playing 1st off reg, off a loss, on the road = U/O 3-4-1 (NOR)

- Playing 1st off a 4-6 margin result = U/O 8-7 (NOR)



As per the intial post in this thread, I dont advocate playing Under for GDS off these games. Thats emphasized by the stats themselves for the spot they find themselves in, 2 relatively good pointers to Over and 1 wishy-washy mark.

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PHX 112 --played 1st--> @home vs MEM = Under
DAL 119 --played 2nd--> on the road vs POR = Over


Last Season
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, on the road vs Non-Conf teams = 5-2 to Under (DAL)

- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a win, on the road = 4-3 to Under (DAL)

- Playing 2nd off a 7-9 margin result = 7-5 to Over (DAL)

Even thou PHX are another side I don't advocate playing Under on after these games, the fact they've yet to play out an Under result this season, and the fact they won't have Raja Bell playing, and the fact they'll be playing a side who have routinely thwarted their Over ways the last few seasons (and that was with their best offensive player present, Gasol, who obviously wont be involved here), I think this maybe an occasion to loosen that stay away rule. PHX will be desperate to win, and this is a game that could easily get scrappy. Memphis (4-0 to Under this season in regulation) will have no motivation to play into the style that the struggling team prefers.

Dallas isnt playing to their defensive standard of last season, but have alternated their totals this season: O-U-O-U-O-??

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Portland hosts consecutive teams coming off a 230/100-100 game. Given their own ability to be involved in really ugly scoring games (2-0 to Under at home already this season), I think it more than likely at least 1 goes Under.

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NJY 113 --played 1st---> @Home vs MIL = Under
SEA 119 --played 2nd----> @Home vs PHI = Under

Last Season
- Teams playing 1st off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 5-4 to Under (NJY)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, @home vs Non-Conf teams = 5-3 to Over (SEA)

- Teams playing 1st off reg, off a loss, @home = 5-4 to Under (NJY)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a win, @home = 6-3 to Over (SEA)

- Playing 1st off a 4-6 margin result = U/O 8-7 (NJY)
- Playing 2nd off a 4-6 margin result = U/O 6-7 (SEA)
 
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UTH 120 --played 1st---> @Home vs TOR = Under
PHX 117 --played 2nd----> on the road vs GDS = Over
OT

Last season
- Teams playing 1st @home, off OT vs non-Conf. teams were O/U 1-1 (UTH)

- Teams playing 1st @home, off an OT win were 3-0 to Under (UTH)

- Playing 1st off a 1-3 pt margin result = 8-0 to Under (UTH)


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NYK 118 ---played 1st---> @home vs HOU = Under
BOS 122 ---played 2nd---> on the road vs CHR = Under

Last season
Teams playing 1st @home, off reg. vs non-Conf. teams were 4-2 to Under (NYK)
Teams playing 2nd on the road, off reg. vs Conf teams were 5-2 to Under (BOS)

Teams playing 1st @home, off a reg. loss were 5-4 to Under (NYK)
Teams playing 2nd on the road, off a reg. win were 4-3 to Under (BOS)

Playing 1st off a 4-6 pt margin result = 8-7 to Under (NYK)
Playing 2nd off a 4-6 pt margin result = 7-6 to Over (BOS)
 
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I'll be posting my total plays off 230/100-100 games in this thread this season.


Utah-Toronto Under 213.5

I cannot ignore the strength of the situational marks this game has...

Off a 1-3 margin game, playing first: 9-0 to Under last 2 seasons
Off an OT game, playing 1st: 11-2 to Under last 2 seasons

...aligned with the fact that Utah played out a 227 pt game prior to their last game 237 OT clash w/PHX, that they managed a 224 pt effort 2 games before that, and have topped 200+ pts for 5 straight- contrast that to last season, where the same core group managed to post consecutive 200+ pt games just twice the entire season: adding those 2 runs together doesnt give you as many 200 pt games as this current streak alone. If theres one thing I know about Jerry Sloan, is that he hates lax defense, and if you look at Utah's home games, they've conceded 97, 82, 101 & 90 to sides other than Phoenix. The worst team they've played (going on last seasons records), GDS, is the team they've conceded the least points to. The other 3 teams, HOU, DET & LAC, will all likely be post season contenders. Toronto will easily be the worst team they've played at home so far.

Toronto is at the end of a 5 game road trip: last season they had 2 trips of such length (their longest of the season), and totaled [in their last games...]

195 on a 208.0 line vs Miami.
208 on a 212.5 line vs Denver

...they also enter this game having topped 100+ points in their last 2 (road) games: Over the last 4 seasons, they have only once scored 3 consecutive 100+ totals on the road, the 3rd being 101 vs Denver last year in the 208/212.5 line game listed above: They score their usual mid-80s-to-mid-90s total in this spot, Utah will need to win by around at least 20 to make this go Over. With Utah facing a non-Conf opponent off a hard fought OT battle against Phoenix, I think any sizable lead they happen to get down the stretch in this game will mean they enter a mode where burning the clock, not scoring, will be their modus-operandi.

I'll guess a 108-96 Utah win.
 
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Always appreciate this thread BC, with you on this Jizz Under too. :beer:

11:25 update

nice hit, real nice.
 
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scourge, no problem:cheers:

Toronto once again couldnt score 100 points in this spot, and my prediction for their team total (96) was absolutely perfect.
 
Mad props for this information. I always take what you say into consideration on my bets. Thanks for knowledge. It helps alot of people out.
 
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Tony, gpcyan - thnx guys. All the hard work has been done, and yesterday was about reaping the rewards from it:cheers:
 
renew, to be honest I have a lean on Over.

Boston has rounded into some form (and for them that means they're scoring, because their D under Doc Rivers will never be great, and they have a general tendency to produce more Overs on the road), but obviously Charlotte's figures on the season would seem to make this attractive: U/O 8-2 in regulation so far, 4 straight, but they did manage 200 in reg. vs Boston in Boston (only 1 point short of Over in reg. and of course they managed that in OT). Since Charlotte doesnt play great defense, I'm puzzled why they have so many Unders thus far. Brezec getting limited minutes because of his physical difficulties surely cant be the whole explanation.

Interestingly, last season 2 meetings (both in BOS) they had came with Boston off 230/100-100 games - 1 went Over, 1 went Under. And the only game they played in Charlotte went Over in regulation (even thou it went into OT).

I'm still doing some work about whether I want to back Over. The fact Boston has had 2 days rest doesnt do Under lovers any favours in this spot.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Post CHA-BOS result update.

Curtesy of an awareness gleaned from Nut's thread, Brevin Knight's absence put me off taking the Over, a factor which I saw adding weight to the inertia of the 230/100 angle.

The GDS-DEN game going on currently looks very likely to be a 230/100-100 game, and of course, like the Lakers & Seattle clash, will have a rematch in a couple of days.
 
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PHI 123 ----played 1st---> on the road vs CLE = Over
CHC 108 ---played 2nd---> on the road vs NYK = Under


Last Season
- Teams playing 1st off reg, on the road vs Conf teams = 2-2 (PHI)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, on the road vs Conf teams = 5-2 to Under (CHC)

- Teams playing 1st off reg, off a win on the road = 2-0 to Under (PHI)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a loss on the road = 3-1 to Under (CHC)

- Playing 1st off a 10+ margin result = 4-2 to Under (PHI)
- Playing 2nd off a 10+ margin result = 5-4 to Over (CHC)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

GDS 129 --played 1st---> @Home vs UTH = Under
DEN 140 --played 2nd---> @Home vs LAC = Under


Last Season
- Teams playing 1st off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 6-4 to Under (GDS)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 7-1 to Over (DEN)

- Teams playing 1st off reg, off a loss, @home = 5-4 to Under (GDS)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a win, @home = 6-3 to Over (DEN)

- Playing 1st off a 10+ margin result = 4-2 to Under (GDS)
- Playing 2nd off a 10+ margin result = 5-4 to Over (DEN)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

To date, teams (all games) are 13-6 to Under off playing a 230/100-100 game.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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okay, so where's the line that reads, "hey redbearde (or eames) you stupid fucker, play _____________________"

inquiring minds would love to know...
 
UTH 102 ----played 1st---> @home vs SEA = Over
LAK 132 ----played 2nd---> @home vs LAC = Under


Last Season
- Teams playing 1st off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 6-4 to Under (UTH)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 7-1 to Over (LAK)

- Teams playing 1st off reg, off a loss, @home = 5-4 to Under (UTH)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a win, @home = 6-3 to Over (LAK)

- Playing 1st off a 10+ margin result = 4-2 to Under (UTH)
- Playing 2nd off a 10+ margin result = 5-4 to Over (LAK)


This far out I'm inclined to think the LA teams are going to have scrappy affair, so despite last seasons numbers casting a postive light on a repeat of their 1st season meeting total result (Over) in this spot, I'm leaning Under. Utah & Seattle, hmmm.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

WAS 121 ---played 1st---> on the road vs CHC = Over
CHA 109 ---played 2nd---> @home vs DET = Under

Last Season
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 7-1 to Over (CHA)

- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a loss, @home = 6-1 to Over (CHA)

- Playing 2nd off a 10+ margin result = 5-4 to Over (CHA)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

MIL 116 ---played 1st--> on the road vs GDS = Over
PHX 122 --played 2nd--> @home vs SAC = Over



For the record, last season MIL & PHX played out a 242 point game, and a 231 point game, and each team achieved Over results in both their subsequent games that followed those clashes.

Given the results that did occur, last year's trends for these teams off such a game vs each other proved to be a rather accurate guide for what to expect.

----------------------------------------------------------------------<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
 
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Jeez, how many home many times do the Lakers get to play in the Staples center to begin the season?
 
Bet,

UNDER in GS/Mil tonight? I know they were both exceptions last night, but that's two straight 100+ games for Mil, and last night they fit the 230 100/100 system
 
smh, I just cant bring myself to think Under in that game. I don't know injury situations or trend ones, because thats my bind: wouldnt play Over on principle due to this very trend, but on principle wouldnt take Under when these 2 teams meet up (same as when MIL meets PHX).

Thats pretty much reflected in their results off this trend last season. While GDS has put out a couple of Unders off these games this season they're not the team off that result here, MIL is. The way I see the sequence likely going is MIL & UTH go Over tonight, which sets up a high number for MIL's final game of their West road trip at Utah, and they have a let down performance and thats the sole Under of their trip. I think this game with GDS will be tight, and for these teams that'll translate into a situation where if Under comes in at all, I'll guess it'll be something akin to a moose job.
 
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Thanks Bet. I was thinking along the same lines. From a subjective standpoint, betting under when these teams get together is just betting into a bad situation. Gonna circle that Mil/Utah game......
 
WAS 121 ---played 1st---> on the road vs CHC = Over
CHA 109 ---played 2nd---> @home vs DET =

Last Season
- Teams playing 1st off reg, on the road vs Conf teams = 2-2 (WAS)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, @home vs Conf teams = 7-1 to Over (CHA)

- Teams playing 1st off reg, off a win, on the road = 2-0 to Under (WAS)
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a loss, @home = 6-1 to Over (CHA)

- Playing 1st off a 10+ margin result = 4-2 to Under (WAS)
- Playing 2nd off a 10+ margin result = 5-4 to Over (CHA)
Click to expand...
You think Stons/Cats Over 193? I was already leaning that way.
 
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smh, I'm behind with everything because I only just got my net connection back up and running (cost me the Philly/Minny under yesterday
icon8.gif
, couldnt do any homework on anything, and I refuse to bet blind) so as far as your question goes, I dont even know the number let alone any facts to begin to offer an opinion.

When I have my shit together I'll edit an answer into this post, but it's not going to be for awhile yet.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

smh - I would have liked this number to be around 210, not 207. I still wouldn't be backing Over, but won't take it as it stands. I see this as similar to the Utah-Toronto game (TOR at the end of a road trip/Utah off a tough, narrow but high-scoring win) yet the line there was 213.5 - in the end even 207 wasnt needed there, but the line made the bet. The same thing might happen here, but the line isnt making the bet.
 
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PHX 161 ---played 1st--> on the road vs BOS = Over
NJY 157 ---played 2nd--> @home vs BOS = Under
OT

Last season
Teams playing 2nd @home, off OT vs Conf teams were 4-2 to Under (NJY)

Teams playing 2nd @home, off an OT loss were 3-0 to Under (NJY)

Playing 2nd off a 4-6 pt margin result = 7-6 to Over (NJY)


 
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I'm not Betcrimes, but the Suns is one of the teams that is an outlier. they consistently buck the under trend. Now, maybe the celtics won't hold up their end, but my guess is that the Suns will beat em about the head and face...this is the team who was still shooting like they were fresh AFTER puttng up 150....amazing game, that one...

GL tonight bro.
 
smh, I'm definitely considering it, looking into it now. I'd appreciate it if someone can tell me what the Pierce and Wally S. situation is.
 
I don't think the Celts can put up all these points!
Surprised to see some good cappers on them, they totally suck!
 
I agree Dreamer. Being forced to watch this team every day is like having to go to the dentist daily and have your teeth removed.

Wally is a sissy I doubt he plays
 
DEN 123 ---played 1st---> on the road vs DAL = Under
MIA 107 ---played 2nd---> @home vs TOR = Under

Last season
Teams playing 1st on the road vs Conf. teams off reg. were 2-2 (DEN)
Teams playing 2nd @home vs Conf teams off reg. were 7-1 to Over (MIA)

Teams playing 1st off a win on the road, off reg. were 2-0 to Under (DEN)
Teams playing 2nd off a loss @home, off reg. were 6-1 to Over (MIA)

Playing 1st off a 10+ pt margin result = 4-2 to Under (DEN)
Playing 2nd off a 10+ pt margin result = 5-4 to Over(MIA)

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SEA 117 ---played 1st---> on the road vs MIL = Under
GDS 115 ---played 2nd---> @home vs SAC = Over

Last season
Teams playing 1st on the road vs non-Conf. teams off reg. were 3-2-1 to Under (SEA)

Teams playing 1st off a win on the road, off reg. were 2-0 to Under (SEA)

Playing 1st off a 1-3 pt margin result = 8-0 to Under (SEA)

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GDS 126 --played 1st--> @home vs HOU = Over
SAC 113 --played 2nd--> on the road vs UTH = Under


This Season & Last
- Teams playing 2nd off reg, on the road vs Conf teams = 7-3 to Under (SAC)

- Teams playing 2nd off reg, off a loss, on the road = 4-1 to Under (SAC)

- Playing 2nd off a 10+ margin result = 9-5 to Under (SAC)

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foolball - I dont advocate making a play soley based on this trend. If I find *real* game circumstances pointing to Over, then I will bypass playing it (based on that clash of facts/stats). But if I find a reasonable amount of normal game factors that point to Under, then I see this trend as giving those factors a clear green light for a play to be made.

Dreamer - I hate to burst your bubble but I dont advocate playing under with GDS coming off one of these games. Thats noted in the very 1st post of this thread.
 
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thanks Bet!
I just wanted to understand your stats. I never blindly play a side or o/u just because of a system.

I just flip a coin =)
 
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