Navy and Ball St ??
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Mags
The Magsnificent One
Glad you started the thread, was getting ready to myself. I am also leaning to Ball St for the QB situation and a couple of other reasons: 20 returning starters (11 on offense), Navy is thin at returning starters on offense (13 total), Navy also has a new coach. Hoping some other guys respond to this and convince me that this is the right play as I anticipate the line going up rather than coming back to us you know.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
navy had a kick blocked in overtime to lose last year, so they have some revenge...think this number is a bit inflated in what should be a shootout. navy's defense definitely has probs, but so does ball state's, to the tune of 521 yards given up on the run in last year's matchup. shouldn't be any worries about the new coach. paul johnson is a great one no doubt, but he's being replaced by one of his own, a longtime navy assistant that hasn't changed much at all. the returning starters are a little bit deceiving too, as they have plenty of people that have seen the field last year returning....should be a tight game; if navy can hang on to the ball i think they can stay within the number
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
what i would like some insight on, even though i'm not playing it...is the total. i don't understand why this is so low. i estimated this thing 6 pts higher and figured it may even come out higher because of a nationally televised game. both offenses match up so well to the opposing defenses, i just don't understand how this one stays under the number. obviously i'm missing a lot since i had it so much higher, but does anyone have a lean or a play to the under in this one that might be able to shed some light??
nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
few things to note here
a) Nate Davis is by far the best player in the MAC, however he doesn't have that talented of an offense behind him. He'll throw the football 100 mph and dazzle and doink, but the WR's have to catch it.
b) Ball State can't stop Navy. There best bet of covering is Navy's ability to not take care of the ball.
I personally initially thought over here as well joe, but then i looked at it and navy's gotta be sharp w/ all the new guys and ball state has to be sharp just b/c of that's how their offense works. Early on last year they came out sluggish, and towards the end of the year they were fluid, plus ball's had an extra year of preparation for navy's style of offense.
a) Nate Davis is by far the best player in the MAC, however he doesn't have that talented of an offense behind him. He'll throw the football 100 mph and dazzle and doink, but the WR's have to catch it.
b) Ball State can't stop Navy. There best bet of covering is Navy's ability to not take care of the ball.
I personally initially thought over here as well joe, but then i looked at it and navy's gotta be sharp w/ all the new guys and ball state has to be sharp just b/c of that's how their offense works. Early on last year they came out sluggish, and towards the end of the year they were fluid, plus ball's had an extra year of preparation for navy's style of offense.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
yeah, good points neil...hopefully the linesmakers think that navy can eat some clock with the run to keep their defense off the field. t.o.p. will probably be the only thing that can help that defense out. i think all of the big plays kind of hurt navy last year...they had i believe 25 more runs than ball state did (almost 70 attempts) and still lost the t.o.p. battle. that's kind of a weird anomaly. long sustained drives will put some more pressure on that ball state offense rather than just both teams just following each other to the end zone
Sarcastic Sword
Pretty much a regular
While neither defense is stellar, it will be Navy having more problems stopping Ball St than Ball stopping Navy...Will Navy put up a decent amount of rush yards - yes they will.....But a one dimensional team will have a few punts but unless Ball St beats themselves with TO's, they cover this #........ the Navy boys have a sharp drop in athleticism in the secondary compared to any Div I team they face - Towson threw for over 330 yards on them last week....Plus, Navy's super option QB, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhad, is out with a torn hammy...
Mags
The Magsnificent One
Good stuff bro :smiley_acbe:
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
sarcastic, i see your point, but it's no secret that navy is awful against the pass. they were worse against it last year than this year, and still took ball st to overtime. i have to disagree that it is more difficult to cover up a weakness vs the pass than a weakness vs the run...and not just because this is in context...that's just how i personally see things...always cap against a weak run defense. i think when the pass is your problem there's a lot of different things you can do, different pressures, different looks, different zones that can more easily cover up the weakness. and i'm by no means saying that davis won't be able to pass, so don't take that the wrong way. fact is there isn't a whole lot you can do vs the run when you're being out-physicalled besides load the box, which they did last year and it worked about as well as the 521 rushing yards shows. i think if navy gets to 350 yards rushing or more tonight they will stay within the number. i think they will do this. i just don't see that much of a difference from last year to this except obviously homefield change, but revenge discounts some of that. ball st may very well be the right side, but expecting a td win against a well coached and well-disciplined team when the rush defense is that bad is tough imo. gl guys...good banter
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
also, kaipo-noa's injury is an issue. definitely. his playmaking ability, leadership, and decision making in this offense has allowed it to be well-oiled. but his back-up isn't green at all with 500 yards rushing from last year, and he's actually been said to be the better passer...although he hasn't proven that in games yet. only way this really hurts him is if he isn't in sync and that causes a few fumbles. the game last year was really dominated by the fullback position, and i expect a lot of the same this year...and white will be better than campbell so you are missing nothing there. kettani/white should both go over 100 yards tonight fairly easily
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
I think you're wrong on point A
Dante Love is one of the best receivers in the nation, let alone the MAC. Darius Hill is one of the better TE's in the county. And they have a stable of pretty decent running backs, Miquale Lewis may be the best in the bunch, and the guy averages > 5 ypc. This BSU team is loaded on offense across the boards, it's just not all Nate Davis.
I think point B is right. Ball State is going to have problems stopping the run...but Navy outrushes EVERYONE they play.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
50% chance of rain too...usually helps the dog and hurts the passing team...
Sarcastic Sword
Pretty much a regular
you make good points...we'll just agree to disagree.....
I will disagree about Navy beating up teams physically - their OL is always undersized - they do a great job of cut-blocking to keep the DL from penetrating and using mis-direction but Im planning on their coaching staff gameplaning against it (Ball def coord was on the staff at Indiana St where the current Navy off coord learned the triple option).As long as Ball St keeps Navy from hitting the big pass when they pull up the safeties and make Navy go 10 plays everytime, I think Ball has a better chance of forcing Navy to punt that Navy forcing Ball to punt.....Plus, dont under-estimate them missing Paul Johnson calling plays - he had a great knack of calling the right play all the time.........its a great contrast tonight - I wish I could see it - my son has a high school football game tonight so I'll have to follow on my cell phone...
O
ontime23
Guest
I have a feeling Ball St Defense will more than likely break after more than 7--8 plays and give up a big play. This offense is frustrating to play against.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
I definitely see some differences from last years game to this years game...
first and foremost is the venue; Ball St is now at home, vice being on the road. No doubt, service academies travel well, because they are so disciplined, but this has to be accounted for.
2nd, the game last year was in the middle of the year (if I'm not mistaken, doing this from memory); Ball St had very little time to prepare for the option compared to this year where they basically had as much time as the wanted (doubt they prepped much for their first opponent).
3rd, yes, this new coach was on Johnson's staff, but does anyone really think he'll turn out to be as good a coach? Does anyone think Stewart will be as good a coach as R Rod? He was on that staff virtually forever before taking the reins this year.
4th, Navy starting QB is out; backup will get his yards naturally, but there is a reason he's the backup, not the starter. By all accounts that I've read, he's not quite the runner the 1st stringer is.
5th, according to Steele, BSU is stronger this year and Navy is slightly weaker.
I'll be on Ball St more than likely if I can get the line I want.
first and foremost is the venue; Ball St is now at home, vice being on the road. No doubt, service academies travel well, because they are so disciplined, but this has to be accounted for.
2nd, the game last year was in the middle of the year (if I'm not mistaken, doing this from memory); Ball St had very little time to prepare for the option compared to this year where they basically had as much time as the wanted (doubt they prepped much for their first opponent).
3rd, yes, this new coach was on Johnson's staff, but does anyone really think he'll turn out to be as good a coach? Does anyone think Stewart will be as good a coach as R Rod? He was on that staff virtually forever before taking the reins this year.
4th, Navy starting QB is out; backup will get his yards naturally, but there is a reason he's the backup, not the starter. By all accounts that I've read, he's not quite the runner the 1st stringer is.
5th, according to Steele, BSU is stronger this year and Navy is slightly weaker.
I'll be on Ball St more than likely if I can get the line I want.
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Navy pretty inexperienced in the O-line. Agree Dmoney that Bryant is Ok, if he wasn't decent at running he wouldn't be a QB at Navy but he is nowhere near what the starter was in terms of running the option.
Weather can affect the option in many ways also.
Weather can affect the option in many ways also.
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
some good stuff on both sides...keep it goin
3wiggler
Pretty much a regular
Weather appears to be improving:
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Updated Sep 5 02:45 p.m. ET
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Navy
@ Ball State (Schedule)
Friday, September 5, 2008
Event Day Forecast for Sep. 5
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Daytime High:74°F
Overnight Low:57°F
Probability of Precipitation: 10%
Wind: From the Northwest at 6 mph
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broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
weather can affect the option for sure...but as long as it's not a downpour i think it'll be ok. the FULLBACKS of navy had over 200 yards rushing in last year's game.
betdahouse
Sean Taylor's Revenge
Betting Ball St. heavy first half at -4...easy number for a hell of an offense going up rather moderate defense...
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