My Bowl Games thread.....




vanzack

vanzack

Pretty much a regular
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As they say on the ESPN commercials, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. Lets hope the most profitable too.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Im going to try and keep one thread for the whole bowl season.[/FONT]
<O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Im also going to rate my games from 1 star to 4 stars, here is the breakdown:[/FONT]
<O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]* = lean but probably no bet for me[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]** = one unit wager for me[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*** = one and a half unit wager for me[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]**** = the rare (but at least 3 for this bowl season, prob more) double wager for me[/FONT]
<O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So here are the games through Fri Dec 22. I will add the rest day by day.[/FONT]
<O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TCU -12 (*) vs N Illinois</ST1:p. This is a tough opener that will be played in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:pl plays in the crappy MAC and had out of conference games against <st1:State>Iowa</st1:State>, <st1:address><st1:Street>Oh St</st1:Street>, <st1:City>Temple</st1:City></st1:address>, and <st1:placeName>Indiana</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType>State</st1:placeType>. They won the games they should have and lost the ones they should have. They rely heavily upon getting their ground game going averaging about 180 on the ground. Their air attack depends upon their ground attack working, as shown in the games where they couldn’t get the ground game going the air attack was weak too.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TCU is hot right now winning 7 in a row coming in to this bowl game and none of them were really all that close. TCU historically has lived off its defense but this team is stacked on offense averaging over 400 yards per game, their rushing offense is 9<SUP>th</SUP> in the nation. Remember where I said <ST1:p<st1:City>N</st1:City> <st1:State>ILL </st1:State></ST1:pwould have to get their ground game going? Problem is that TCU gives up only 67 yards on the ground per game which is 4<SUP>th</SUP> in the country and 1<SUP>st</SUP> in the MWC. This team has held some very good offensive teams down (like T Tech to 3 points) and I think they can do it here to <ST1:pN Ill.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I hate laying DD in bowl games. The past 10 years of DD dogs in bowl games cover at a ridiculous rate. I don’t think TCU will sleepwalk through this one though. They are coming in on a roll and should be happy to be there, and I hope will show up and cover the big number.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BYU -3.5 (***) (waiting as line keeps drifting down, trying to get -3) vs <st1:State><ST1:pOregon</ST1:p</st1:State>. This game is in <st1:City><ST1:pLas Vegas</ST1:p</st1:City>. Im confident that BYU will put up a big number against a sub par <st1:State><ST1:pOregon</ST1:p</st1:State> defense. <st1:State><ST1:pOregons</ST1:p</st1:State> defense doesn’t give up a ton of yards, but because of turnovers and poor punting and kickoffs they are one of the worst points given / yards given teams in the country. These are the teams you want to bet against, the teams that constantly give you a short field to work with and will make mistakes. [/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]<st1:State><ST1:pOregon</ST1:p</st1:State> limps in to this game since they made Brady Leaf the starter at qb. He has done a reasonably good job but is still only 2-3 in his starts. The <st1:State><ST1:pOregon</ST1:p</st1:State> offense is a lot like their defense in that they don’t turn yards in to points. BYU has a bend but don’t break defense that should give up the yards but not the points.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is my first big play of the bowl season as I see BYU being able to move the ball at will and holding <st1:State><ST1:pOregon</ST1:p</st1:State> to a reasonable number. Total players might like the over here. I see something like a 45-24 game.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Troy vs Rice. Nothing here. Nada. Drink a bottle of wine and go to sleep early. <st1:City><ST1:pTroy</ST1:p</st1:City> cruised through their conference schedule but lost to G Tech, FSU, <st1:State>Neb</st1:State>, and UAB all on the road. Now they should probably lose to those teams, but their loss to UAB concerns me. Rice has won the games it should have and lost the rest. Rice wins games by ridiculously close margins winning their final 6 games by 4, 1, 3, 6, 11, and 1. And that is against CUSA crap competition. Rice’s defense is very bad and gives up a ton of points.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I cant get excited about anything in this one. Rip it out of the schedule.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]<ST1:pS Florida</ST1:p -4 (**) vs <ST1:pE Carolina</ST1:p. This one is in <ST1:p<st1:City>Birmingham</st1:City> <st1:State>Alabama</st1:State></ST1:p. I shade this one to SFL because of stronger numbers across the board for them, especially on the defensive side of the ball. SFL is 24<SUP>th</SUP> in the country in total defense and 2 in the big east – and I think that is a big deal. If you can play <ST1:pW Va</ST1:p, <st1:City><ST1:pLouisville</ST1:p</st1:City>, and <ST1:pRutgers</ST1:p and still have those numbers I am impressed.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In bowl games I also lay a big emphasis on conference strength and out of conference schedule. The Big East and CUSA just don’t compare week in and week out. ECU did not put up big offensive numbers against subpar defenses and I just don’t think they will get to the 20’s in this one.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]USF qb grothe is a freshman and a good one, and has progressively gotten better over the season. He is a dual threat and while USF isn’t going to put up a huge number here I think they will get in to the 20’s.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I see a 24-13 game for USF.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SJ State +5.5 (**) (I realize this game is down to +3.5 at which it would be * for me) vs <st1:State><ST1:pNew Mexico</ST1:p</st1:State>. This one is in <ST1:p<st1:City>Albuqerque</st1:City> <st1:State>NM</st1:State></ST1:p which is close to a home game for NM.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This one is just an overlay pure and simple because of the perceived home field. I got this one about a week ago at +5.5, and many have seen the value. [/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NM is not good on offense, they are not good on defense. At least SJ can move the ball on offense.[/FONT]
<O:p</O:p
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is a value play pure and simple. I had this one close to a <st1:stockticker>PKE</st1:stockticker>M so I will take the 5.5 with a smile.[/FONT]


more to come later........


:shake:
 
Nice lookin card, van. I'm already on S. Florida & TCU, and I'll probably add SJSU later.

SJSU doesn't necessarily win pretty, but they've been getting it done all season. Only reason I'm hesitant is the location of the game. I can't see a massive fan base rolling in for SJSU, so it should be home field advantage NM.

:cheers:
 
Aztec4Life said:
Nice lookin card, van. I'm already on S. Florida & TCU, and I'll probably add SJSU later.

SJSU doesn't necessarily win pretty, but they've been getting it done all season. Only reason I'm hesitant is the location of the game. I can't see a massive fan base rolling in for SJSU, so it should be home field advantage NM.

:cheers:
Click to expand...

Im hoping that because the kids are out of school and it is close to Christmas that this wont be a huge home field advantage. I could be wrong but Im willing to take that chance.

NM just aint much of a team. Home or no home.

:shake:
 
vanzack said:
Yeah I think I fixed it though.

Lesson learned.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Good deal, Van.

I don't know about the LV Bowl, dude. I think BYU is the superior team and at -3 it might be a play. I went to the game last year and will most likely be there this year. I think BYU--which is alot better than last year's team--will do well but I think they will shrink against Pac-10 talent.

At -3 I could see a play but anything over I would have to consider Oregon.

Nothing tied in right now. I'm just waiting.
 
the avatar is hot van!!

I haven't triggered the gun on any of these yet, but have leans on a few of them. I am leaning to the over in that BYU/Oregon game.

GL.
 
HUNTDOG said:
the avatar is hot van!!

I haven't triggered the gun on any of these yet, but have leans on a few of them. I am leaning to the over in that BYU/Oregon game.

GL.
Click to expand...


I want to motorboat those big ol' jugs!!!

:bow: Van's avatar
 
The avatar is nice... those plays might be nicer... I haven't played anything yet but those are my leans on each one. TCU, USF, and BYU should all cash. Not as sure about SJSU but that'd be my play.

GL
 
Van...already on SanJoseSt the second I saw it out at +5...Passed BYU -5 but I'll probably have to lay into it at the lower line. My book has it at 4 still...love it though...
 
Utah -1.5 (*) vs Tulsa in Fort Worth Texas. This is a pretty even game in my analysis. Utah always shows up for their bowl games winning their last 5. Tulsa does have some slight statistical advantages here but I chalk that more up to an easy schedule playing in the weak CUSA.

Special teams is an area that Utah has an advantage as they are first in the nation in net punting and Tulsa is close to the bottom. Utah should have the advantage of a shorter field throughout.

My analysis shows Utah is in a tougher conference, played a tougher schedule, and has the special teams advantage, while offense and defense looks very similar. Slight edge to Utah here but this will be one that I definitely wont bet on.

Arizona State +8 (**) vs Hawaii in Hawaii. I have to take these points. AZ ST is a very average team, but in my opinion is very comparable to the Oregon State team that went to Hawaii and won. They have similar offensive and defensive numbers, most are better than OSU, their problems have extended a lot to turnovers.

Hawaii is the type of team that extra coaching time favors when you are playing against them. ASU should not be surprised by what Hawaii throws at them and should be well adjusted to play the type of offense that Hawaii will bring.

Bottom line, I just don’t see how Hawaii deserves to be an 8 point fav here after their 2 out of conference struggles against Purdue and OSU, and will take those points gladly. High scoring 1 possession type of game. Will be nerve wracking, but give me those points.

Central Michigan -10 (**) vs Middle Tenn ST inside the dome in Detroit. There is every initial reason to bet Middle Tn here – they are a double digit dog, they are playing a team whose head coach left, they are a small school with bigtime motivation – but I cant get past their deplorable numbers on the field.

MTST ranks 105 out of 119 division 1 programs in total offense. Their passing offense is 108 out of 119. They play in the crappy sunbelt conference. Their strength of schedule is ranked 106th in the nation. Their wins came against: Ark ST, Lafayette, Monroe, FAU, FIU, North Texas, and Tennessee Tech. They did not even compete in any game they had against a legitimate div 1 team scoring 34 points in those 4 games.

CMU on the other hand also plays in a relatively weak conference, but their offense is outstanding and they have a great QB WR connection that has paid dividends. They are well balanced on both sides of the ball, and their special teams are also outstanding. They won the MAC this year and this will be close to a home game for them.

Like I said, I wanted to like MTST here but I just cant. They are overpowered in all facets of this game. 41-14 CMU.

More to come......

:cheers:
 
Looks nice Van

Will come back in a few days and discuss more.

Getting ready to pull trigger on SJSU and BYU as well.
 
van hot babe there IS THAT MY WIFE ? VAN IM WITH YOU ON ALL YOUR TOP PICKS also got troy your read on game is 100 percent right brotha rice on a roll but against shit while troy was whoopin and hanging with big boys ML TROY hey all gl
 
undecided on utah and azu nut aginst ya on mid tenn state nasty d unlike the mac cent has ever seen mid tenn to quick and keep it close in a su kill for mid tenn gl all
 
Same as Troy here, Like Utah, BYU, SJST

Van, I noticed a few times you said the SC-Houston is one of your biggest bowl plays...It is mine as well so I look forward to seeing what you think about the game..
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Same as Troy here, Like Utah, BYU, SJST

Van, I noticed a few times you said the SC-Houston is one of your biggest bowl plays...It is mine as well so I look forward to seeing what you think about the game..
Click to expand...

No secrets, S Carolina is going to be one of my 3 biggest games of bowl season. Watching the line closely since it came out, hoping it goes south.

Will write it up in the next couple of days.

:shake:
 
You got your -3 on BYU now, Van. You going to hit it or reassess with news of BYU's CB woes?
 
rjurewitz said:
You got your -3 on BYU now, Van. You going to hit it or reassess with news of BYU's CB woes?
Click to expand...

Im still hitting it.

Just watching these lines move.

BYU going down and so is TCU.

Waiting for now....
 
I'm liking the over more in the BYU/Oregon game with the problems at CB BYU has now. They just lost one CB to suspension, two starting CBs to injury, another CB is coming off shoulder surgery, and all 3 backups are rFr or Sophs.

As long as Oregon can play decent at QB and get the ball out there, they should score around 30 or so. Also think that BYU puts about that number on Oregon. 60' is the total right now.
 
The 2 injured guys are cleared to play.

This was posted at a BYU fan board by someone who others have confirmed is Criddles brother.

CriddleN is Ben's younger brother, not his dad. Ben is my younger brother. The source of the information I posted is my dad (and Ben's) who I spoke to on the phone a few hours ago. Ben is cleared to play by his foot specialist. This does not mean he will play it only means he can without doing further damage.

Ben's injury is a severe form of turf toe in which the plantar tendon has ruptured. Initially the specialist thought that conservative treatment would be enough with only a small chance of needing surgery. However, at the follow up on Thursday the imaging showed that he was not healing properly and would require surgery. Ben saw a second foot specialist in Salt Lake yesterday who agreed with the first. The new development ocurred today when the specialist was asked if since he already needed surgery would playing on the toe make it any worse. The answer was that he likely could not worsen it by playing on it. He was cleared to try and play. If he finds that he can play in practice next week without it hampering him too much he will play in the Bowl.

As you can imagine the past couple of days has been an emotional roller coaster for Ben. I think he is pretty pumped right now though. Don't be surprised to see him playing Thursday.

http://cougarblue.com/index.php?name=PNphpBB2&file=viewtopic&t=7450&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
 
Article about BYU secondary.

Criddle is the only starter that is in question. The other corner is available, and one of the safeties is being moved to corner to replace Criddle if he doesnt play. So in the end they are replacing a safety.

Depth will certainly be a question.

ARTICLE:

Hill: No excuses facing Oregon's tall receivers

Darnell Dickson
DAILY HERALD

Mind over matter: If you don’t mind, it doesn’t matter.

That’s the approach BYU secondary coach Jamie Hill is taking in preparation for the Las Vegas Bowl. Injuries? Suspensions? Facing Oregon’s talented, very tall wide receivers?

“There are no adversities,” Hill said. “There are no excuses. There’s nothing, we just play. We don’t concern ourselves with that. Whoever is out there is gonna play and play well.”

Starting cornerback Ben Criddle and his backup, Kayle Buchanan, are doubtful for the bowl game. The other starting cornerback, senior Justin Robinson, is coming off a shoulder injury. Backup safety Corby Hodgkiss is hobbled and backup cornerback Tico Pringle was suspended early this week.

On top of that, Oregon’s wide receivers may be the best BYU will face in 2006.

“Oregon has big, strong receivers who run great routes,” Hill admitted, “and the offense has scored a lot of points. We have to maintain our leverages, stay on top of them and do what we do.”

What has BYU’s secondary done? After suffering through a horrific 2005, BYU improved dramatically under Hill. In 2005, BYU gave up 269.3 yards per game passing and 25 touchdowns; in 2006, the Cougars allowed just 208.3 yards per game and 11 touchdowns. The pass efficiency defense rose from 105th (144.75) in 2005 to 19th (107.84) in 2006.

That said, BYU’s secondary will get a big test from Oregon’s receivers.

“I’m not sure I can compare them to anyone we’ve played,” BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “They’re a fast, athletic bunch. In watching film, each time a guy made a play it seemed like it was a different number. They’re probably the best we’ve faced this year.”

Jaison Williams (6-5 240 So.) leads Oregon with 68 catches for 984 yards and six touchdowns. Oregon can also throw to 6-foot-5 tight end Dante Rosario (41 catches, 414 yards, 1 TD), 6-5 Jordan Kent (39-458-4) and 6-2 Brian Paysinger (33-404-2).

“They’re big boys,” BYU junior safety Dustin Gabriel said. “We’ve got to make sure we do our assignments. The last couple of games we weren’t focused on what we’re supposed to do. We need to trust our coaches and trust the players next to us that they’re going to do what they’re supposed to do.”

BYU will counter with Robinson (5-9) and has moved senior safety Cole Miyahira (6-0) to cornerback. Gabriel (6-1) and Quinn Gooch (6-0) will go at safety.

“What we’re gonna try to do is to understand what they do, understand what we do well, then go out and execute our responsibilities,” Hill said. “Size has no factor.”
 
FSU +4.5 (**) vs UCLA. I have this game at a PKEM. Yes FSU’s offense is bad. But so is UCLA’s. And FSU’s defense is still great. Better than UCLA’s.

For all of their troubles FSU is ranked 15th nationally defensively. I am banking on them coming up with some offensive game plan in the month they had off. Both programs are going to be disappointed to be in this bowl, and UCLA just won their super bowl – so emotionally I think it is a wash.

Defensive struggle. Give me the points.

Alabama +2 (***) vs Oklahoma State. OK ST should be embarrassed at their out of conference schedule. SWMOST, ARK ST, FAU, and Houston (they lost this one). This teams defense could make the worst offenses look good ranked 99!! in the country. Ok St is 6-6, take out their shit out of conference teams and they are 3-6!! YES 3-6 against real competition. And they are favored in a bowl game??

This is tailor made for a team like bama who needs help from the other team in order to score. Bama will score on this team. And Bama might be the best defense OK ST has seen this year.

So give me the team that is playing against a defense that has surrendered an average of 31 points over its last 9 games any day, and then give me points and I say “thank you”.

Yes I know there are coaching issues at bama. But Im going to take a chance that they will have a gameplan to tear apart a swiss cheese defense. I think they could win by accident.

Rutgers -7 (**) vs Kansas State. Mismatch here. Im a little concerned about the one dimesional Rutgers offense but bowl games are different. They have a month to prepare.

Im not sure how Kansas State is going to score in this one. I have examined every angle and I just don’t see them putting up points. Their offense is non-threatening, their defense average – and they play in a conference that is inferior to the Big East.

You can bet that Rutgers will be up for this game and play for Schiano and play the whole game out.

Rutgers in a walk 34-7.

Cal -5 vs TX AM (no play). I cant get an edge on this one. Once again TX AM out of conference schedule is a laugher, and I watched them almost lose (they should have lost) to Army. They played in close games every game all year, and never really distinguished themselves.

Cal on the other hand is battle tested but stumbling in, and with their original hopes of a national championship this has to be a disappointment for them.

I cant buy in to either of these teams in this spot. At a pkem I take Cal but at -5 I think is just about right.
 
Yeah, Van, I'm not the smartest college guy in the world, but I really think FSU wins that game outright.

Nice work.
 
Joe Public said:
Yeah, Van, I'm not the smartest college guy in the world, but I really think FSU wins that game outright.

Nice work.
Click to expand...
Agree 100%:smiley_acbe:
 
My Thoughts

Van,

First let me start by saying great Avatar, that South of the Border rack makes me sweat.

South Carolina

Let me start with what I agree with. I am in total agreement on South Carolina, this is a great matchup for the Gamecocks. They have a great secondary to handle the Cougar passing game, and their front seven is predicated more on speed, which when facing a physical running game can hurt them, but Houston does not possess a power running game, and I think they should be able to hold the Cougar offense in check. I also think with the horrid Cougar defense you will get about 35 points out of the Gamecock offense. South Carolina should be able to use balance, as their running game should be able to get on track, and then the ole ball coach offense will have their way. I also think that coaching is a big factor in these bowl games, and Spurrier is the master of having time on his hands to change schemes. This is a great play!

Northern Illinois vs. TCU

I think the play here is the over. As I think the TCU offense should have its way with a horrid Husky defense. I think Northern Illiniois will find a way to muster enough points to send this over, and I think they could stay within the 12. Their OL began to improve over the last several games, and they had some younger guys there. I dont care what defense they face, when they have the OL working and gelling no one can completely shut down their run game. I also dont like how everyone and their brother is on the Horned Frogs, I just see this being a halfway competitive semi-barn burner.

Florida State vs. UCLA

Like the noles here as they were a bit up and down towards the end, but they did show a few signs of offensive life during the latter half of the year. Certainly the most dominant unit in this game is the Noles defense and you are getting 4.5 points, so gotta like the Noles. You also have a special teams advantage with the Noles with their superior athletes. This is also one of the better bowl plays.

Will be back later for my thoughts on other games. One question for you. In bowl games, how do you factor the importance of offense vs. defense? I like good defenses, but it seems these bowl games tend to favor a dominant offense, because of the exhibition nature of these games. As always good work and good luck.
:cheers:
 
I don't know where you got your stats from, but TCU is not a prolific offense. I saw TCU in person from the 50 yard line vs UNLV, and in my opinion, if they can't cover -19 vs UNLV and their offense isn't even guaranteed to score 21, how can you lay -12 and think its a good bet?? I would only recommend playing TCU if you think NIU is as bad or worse than UNLV. good luck.
 
I don't agree with every one of these plays, but I agree with most of them. I'm planning on taking this bowl season one game at a time, so I just want to comment on the NIU/TCU game first for tonight.

Some statements that I have heard made for NIU are: "Nicholson is just as good as Horvath, so they don't skip a beat there . . . . " (Is that suppose to make me want to jump on NIU? lol) "Wolfe has been banged up, but should be well rested here . . . . " (They're still going to be one-dimensional aren't they? 11 to 1 . . . . . . I'll side with the 11) "Double digit dogs are cash money in bowl games . . . . " (How does this favor a team's strength? They are only cash money if they have some strengths that exploit the opponents weaknesses. None are evident in this match-up)

You make some really great points in your write-up on this game and I couldn't agree more. I think throwing money on NIU here is nothing more than wishful thinking.
 
NickFazekas said:
I don't know where you got your stats from, but TCU is not a prolific offense. I saw TCU in person from the 50 yard line vs UNLV, and in my opinion, if they can't cover -19 vs UNLV and their offense isn't even guaranteed to score 21, how can you lay -12 and think its a good bet?? I would only recommend playing TCU if you think NIU is as bad or worse than UNLV. good luck.
Click to expand...


That game is the only game in the last 7 games that TCU has not covered the line. Have you took note of the last 3 games? Reason I ask is because I don't see any of TCU's last three opponents being any less teams than what NIU is and TCU blew them all out.
 
SeattleSlim said:
That game is the only game in the last 7 games that TCU has not covered the line. Have you took note of the last 3 games? Reason I ask is because I don't see any of TCU's last three opponents being any less teams than what NIU is and TCU blew them all out.
Click to expand...


TCU probably wins but there is no value in laying -12 when all NIU has to do is score 10 points and its all but covered.
 
1st Bowl Play Northern Illinois/TCU Over 46.5

I still feel the way to play this is to go witht the over. You don't have to have a prolific offense to put up 28 at a minimum on this bunch from Northern Illinois. TCU will have their way with that defense, but I also think that Northern Illinois will move the ball a little better than people think on that TCU defense. Hence, my over play. I would be very nervous laying the points with TCU, just seems like a trap to play the Horned Frogs. I will take my chances with the one thing I do know, that Northern Illinois defense is horrid.
 
Nick, their overall offense is ranked 17th in the nation (out of 199) and their running game is 9th. Thats prolific.

They average 28 points a game. Im not too worried about a second rate MAC defense stopping them.
 
AND BTW - Im not even betting the game.

Its a lean for me, but I will not have a bet on this one tonight, but if I did it would be TCU.
 
NickFazekas said:
TCU probably wins but there is no value in laying -12 when all NIU has to do is score 10 points and its all but covered.
Click to expand...

Based on this statement, shouldn't you be HAMMERING the Under?'an_horse'
 
NickFazekas said:
TCU probably wins but there is no value in laying -12 when all NIU has to do is score 10 points and its all but covered.
Click to expand...

I posted this on another thread. Not trying to piss you off but just wanted to add to this discussion.

What is it that you like about the NIU Defense?

They gave up more yards than their opponents' season averages at an alarming rate this year. Consider the following pedestrian offenses output vs. NIU and their season average YPG:

Team vs. NIU Yards per game
Ohio 509 280.7
Buffalo 349 267.3
Ball st 385 351
Miami,OH 469 323
W. Mich 380 315
Temple 316 215
Iowa 400 385

Yikes.

And since TCU averages 409 yards per game vs. moderately better competition, shouldn't we assume they get their season average and then some. All things equal, how many points does that translate to?<!-- / message -->
 
Agree With the Posts On Here, Take the Over

This over should hit, I posted my pick earlier at 46.5 over, but went ahead and took the over at 47 so I did not have to pay the juice.
 
Wolfe will have to get more than 7 yards in the second half for the over to cash. Unbelievable performance by a very salty TCU defense.:spank:
 
van why did you bet on TCU then play N illinois at 32 in the contest??
 
abcs said:
van why did you bet on TCU then play N illinois at 32 in the contest??
Click to expand...


I just saw that. It was a fuckup. I meant to have TCU at 32.

Oh well, I wont be winning the contest this year. At least I didnt fuck up on my money bet and win my contest pick - that would have been bad.

:an_roll_laugh:
 
vanzack said:
I just saw that. It was a fuckup. I meant to have TCU at 32.

Oh well, I wont be winning the contest this year. At least I didnt fuck up on my money bet and win my contest pick - that would have been bad.

:an_roll_laugh:
Click to expand...
:cheers:
 
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