MWC Week 7

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
16-15-1 +2.06 Units (Goal of +10 Units for the Season)
Last Week 2-4 -1.3 Units
2-1 MWC Plays and 0-3 on Non MWC Games

Locked In:
WYO -3.5
AFA +4
TCU -3.5
UTAH/SDSU Over 52

Leans:
Utah < -14.0
BYU > -13.0



I really had hoped to be much closer to my season goal at this point. Minus a 6-0 week I’ve been pretty bad so keep that in mind. I can’t wait for the NBA to get started. I’m one of the few who actually enjoys betting the NBA more than football. On to Week 7.
<O:p
New Mexico @ Wyoming

WYO -3.5 (Played)

Wyoming had TWO hundred yard rushers against TCU and that is very, very impressive. They ran for 4.5 ypc while holding the Horned Frogs to 3.1 on the ground. Their lines are controlling the game which is making them a very dangerous team to play. Wyoming averages 184 ypg on the ground while holding opposing teams to 84 ypg. New Mexico on the other hand is pretty solid up front as well. They average 155 on the ground and give up only 89.8. It should certainly a battle in the trenches.

Wyoming thinks they can win the MWC and I certainly don’t expect a letdown at home here.



SDSU @ Utah

I am expecting Utah to build on last week’s victory over Ville. If I can get a -13.5 I’ll be on the Utes. Currently sitting at 14.5 and I won’t lay more than two touchdowns.



TCU @ Stanford

TCU-3.5 (Played)

I couldn’t have been any happier when I saw Stanford pull that out against USC. I expect a major letdown. It’s mentally impossible to come back and prepare for TCU, a 3-3 MWC team, after knocking off the #1 team in the country and the Pac Ten powerhouse. Impossible. The Cardinals have a difficult time (understatement of the thread) stopping any running back. I still don’t know how the stopped USC from running but I’ll take it as an anomaly. Look at these #’s in their games so far this year:

Kahli Bell 19 rushes for 195 yards
Jonathen Stewart 19 rushes for 160 yards.
Ryan Torain 16 rushes for 103 yards.

The only team that tried to run the ball on them and failed was USC. Monster game expected from Aaron Brown this weekend. The craziest part of Stanford beating USC was that it was their first road game of the year and they got outgained 460 yards to 235. I love the Frogs under a TD here and I think -4 is a gift.



<O:p</O:p
AFA @ Colorado State

AFA +4 (Played)

I was impressed with AFA coming back off the loss to Navy and taking care of UNLV last week. They simply pounded the ball right at UNLV for 300 yards and average of 7.4 ypc. Colorado State meanwhile saw their season and program hit a new low. Sure I didn’t see them cover 14, but to lose outright was embarrassing. This quote pretty much sums up CSU’s season at this point.
<O:p</O:p
"It would be natural for all of us not to want to come to work (today)," he (Coach Lubbick) said. "You start wondering, 'What the heck's the use?' The players are probably feeling that way, too.

<O:p</O:p"I do know our players like and respect their coaches. Whether we're good enough at this point, I don't know."<O:p</O:p

It was so bad that the Rams didn’t score for the first thirty minutes against the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> worst ranked defense in the country. Their defense had problems tacking Kevin O’Connel as he ran for 41 yards on 16 carries while scoring three rushing touchdowns. That number would much higher if it wasn’t for the fact that CSU actually got seven sacks. And now they are going to get an actually running QB in Carney.



<O:pBYU @ UNLV
<O:p
The Cougars have absolutely smoked the Rebels the last two years. I was hoping to take the Rebels at +13 or greater. Unless I get that # I’ll pass on this game. I’ll add some other thoughts about it later. The Rebels have totaled 454 and 471 yards in their last two games so they aren’t having any problems moving the sticks.

GL to all this week. <O:p
 
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love these threads...I learn so much since I never see these teams...thanks bro.
 
i saw the TCU line and i almost immediatley thinking who is hurt to make this line like this. The way i figure that monster win will have the stanford campus partying into next weekend. I really don't see why stanford should care about this game, i mean that win against USC made there season.

Are there any significant injuries to TCU. I thought i remmebered something about one of their RB's being hurt earlier in the year, but i do not know for sure.

GL, nice looking card.
 
Hunt--Glad to help man.

Couselor--Don't hate man. :)

Frank--Aaron Brown was out for 3 of the first 4 games of the year. He's been back for the last week and a half and I'm guessing that he's going to go off on Saturday. 150+ yards hopefully. The line really amazes me as I thought I'd have to give more than the 3.5.
 
jpicks, ditto the great stuff on the MWC. I actually prefer watching/following these smaller conference schools and it's great to have someone from the area who is in the thick of it.

Absolutly in agreement in regards to WYO. If I remember correctly, NM away is a much different team than at home, historically anyway. I would like to see if it will continue to fall another point. That puch pissed me off last week.

Definite great spot for TCU, and I may join you there. I wonder what that line woulda been had Stanford had 2 less points last Saturday
 
Slim--I'll have some more thoughts about the WYO/NM game a little later today, but take a look at the boxscore from last years meeting. The Lobos were held to 190 yards of offense. They scored 10 points directly off of turnovers. The only way you lose @home 14-10 while winning the turnover battle (3 to 1) is by losing the battle up front. 35 rushes for 78 yards for the Lobos. The scary part for them is that the WYO front 7 has gone much better since then.

So I suppose that New Mexico could beat them thru the air, but that's probably not going to happen either. Thinking of games that the Cowboys have played teams that like to air it out brings me to the Boise State games they've played last year;

@HOME they held Zambransky to 12-20 for 116 yards in 2006
@BSU they held Tharp to 15-30 for 182 in 2007.

If the Cowboys don't have 2+ more turnovers than the Lobos then they will cover. @Home with their confidence at an all time high for their program and I'm taking my chances.



And in all honesty I don't think the line would be anything different had Standford lost by 2. The emotional part of the loss would have been close to as big as the win. Had they got blown out I probably wouldn't be near this game. It certainly looks like a great spot.
 
As always, I love your MWC thread bro!

How about them AZTECS last week, eh?! Perhaps we aren't the worst team in the nation! :smiley_acbe:

With you on the flyboys. GL buddy!

:cheers:
 
Great thread as always...

getting ready to hit Flyboys as well. Ben looking at it a bit and wanted your confirmation.
 
Aztecs-- Hell of a win man. 1-0 in conference sure is nice after that non coference schedule you guys played. You have any thoughts about this weekends showdown?


B.A.R.-- Only worry about that game is that CSU has absolutely nothing to play for. Couple of injury updates on that game as well here in a bit.

Fondy--I know you'll be with me or against me on all of them after seeing last weeks card. That was an awesome week you had.

Webb--Thanks and GL to you as well.
 
Hey, I will have some more detailed thoughts later but I like the Wyoming side of things. Any idea what happened in that 2nd half, mainly 4th quarter out there for my under to get squashed? I thought I was sitting pretty and than all of a sudden its 24-21.
 
Ya that 2nd half was a complete moose job. I was on the under with ya. The short of the story was that Wyoming got up 24-6 with 8 minutes remaining and starting jerking each other off. TCU drove down for a TD in 1:50, forced a three and out and then tackled the punter before he could get the kick off. TCU then drove 15 yards for their 2nd touchdown. By then the momentum was on TCU's side and Wyoming was fortunate that Manfedini missed the FG as time expired. If anything it should help Wyoming close out games moving forward as it was a hell of a scare. Still it sucks to lose that under.
 
News and notes from a couple of games. I'll get to the others a little later tonight. New Mexico and BYU are both off byes and both teams are pretty healthy because of it. Some other teams are not so fortunate.


AFA/CSU

Not really worried about this unless Smith and McCarthy can't go. Typically 5 or 6 people will run the ball every game for AFA.

Ollis was not on the two deep chart released Monday by Calhoun. Freshman Savier Stephens is listed as the backup tailback behind Smith. But Smith did not practice because of his sprained right ankle, and Calhoun said Smith, who wore a protective boot on his right foot, is questionable for Saturday’s game. Senior tailback Kip McCarthy (strained right hip) also is questionable.

I've got to admit that I'm a bit worried that the Rams might come out swining against the Falcons this weekend. Hopefully that feeling passes as the week moves on. Some injury updates and quotes:




Colorado State University's defense could be at full strength or missing three starters Saturday when the Rams host Air Force.
Coach Sonny Lubick, speaking Monday at his weekly press luncheon, said senior defensive end Jesse Nading has an undisclosed hand injury, and his status for Saturday is unclear. He also said he won't know before today if safeties Klint Kubiak and Mike Pagnotta will be available.

Kubiak, the starting free safety, has missed three consecutive games since being diagnosed with a bleeding ulcer. He said last week that once his red blood cell count rises, doctors should clear him to play.

Pagnotta suffered a badly sprained ankle in the Sept. 29 game at Houston. He spent all of last week in a boot but said he hopes to resume practice this week

"There's got to be a reason why we keep losing these game, but I don't know what it is yet," senior defensive tackle Blake Smith said. "We know we are a good team. The hardest thing for me is coach Lubick. To me, I'm enjoying everything here and I'm so glad I came here. Nothing matters to me now but winning for coach Lubick. He deserves better than this."

When a legendary coach (and he is a legend in Fort Collins) starts to have his repuation ruined I get a bit nervous that the players will have the utmost motiviation to win. Not sure if the talent is there to win, but they have led in the third quarter of three games this year not inlcuding being down by 3 to Cal in the third quarter.



NM/WYO

Not good stats for Wyoming, but they are only stats.
The Lobos own a 3-1 record at Wyoming during Rocky Long's tenure.
The Lobos have won three-consecutive games at War Memorial Stadium.
And the Lobos are 8-1 following bye weeks during the Long era.

Once again Wyoming is in the stone age and they don't update anything. Hope for more later. It is imperative that Wyoming is able to run the ball against New Mexico because I just don't think Karsten Sween can move this offense from the QB position. The guy is 9-3 as a starter, but really doesn't seem to be able to throw the ball. Think Baltimor Ravens with Anthony Wright at QB.
 
Still planning to get to the other games, but it seems alot of the forum is on Air Force so I'll try and update the injuries there:


Senior tailback Kip McCarthy went through Air Force’s full-pads practice Tuesday. Calhoun said McCarthy was rusty but probably would play against Colorado State. . . . Senior tailback Chad Smith (ankle) and sophomore nose guard Stephen Larson (ankle) did not practice and are considered doubtful for Saturday.






Colorado State University safeties Mike Pagnotta and Klint Kubiak attended Tuesday's practices, but they remained sidelined, leaving their status for Saturday's game against Air Force very much in doubt.
CSU defensive coordinator Steve Stanard said he is preparing as if Kubiak, the starting free safety, and Pagnotta, the starting strong safety, will not be available. Kubiak has missed three consecutive games after being diagnosed with a bleeding ulcer, while Pagnotta missed last week's game against San Diego State with a high ankle sprain.

Pagnotta, free of the protective boot he has worn since suffering the injury Sept. 29 at TCU, said the swelling and pain have subsided in his left ankle, and said he might try to practice today for the first time.
 
This will be my last update for the Week on injuries and other stuff unless I can find a computer in Boston. Leaving today to go watch Game 1 of the ALCS.

AFA
No updates on injuries from the Falcons side of things. Still very concerned about this game and if I could buy my way out of it for free I'd do it. Going to let it ride though, but I'm certainly not going to be surprised if CSU wins this one and I'm hoping it's by a FG if it happens.

CSU
"The last two days of practice might have been our best all year," junior tailback Kyle Bell said Wednesday. "Guys are working hard and competing at a high level, and that makes practice fun."


Quarterback Caleb Hanie concurred. "Everyone is trying harder and harder every day - it's kind of inspiring," he said. "We've still got a lot to look forward to. I've heard some people say that we need to start playing for pride. We've got seven games left. We've definitely go a lot more to play for than pride."

Starting safeties Klint Kubiak and Mike Pagnotta remained sidelined Wednesday, making it increasingly doubtful they would play Saturday. "I don't think they'll play," Rams coach Sonny Lubick said.

SDSU
Brandon Bornes (Starting RB) was listed as quesitonable all week, but practiced at full speed yesterday.

Long said a decision will be made later this week as to whether senior running back Brandon Bornes will start Saturday's game at Utah. Long said Bornes, the team's leading rusher, has been bothered by a sore back.

Long said yesterday's practice was one of the best of the season because of its energy and crispness. Running back Brandon Bornes (sore back) practiced at full speed.

UTAH
I obviously lied when I said I'd take Utah under 14 because they've been sitting at -13.5 all week and I'm not touching it. Utes lost Kyle Brady to season ending achilles injury last week against Ville. 5th starter out for the year. I really like the Utes to cover this line, but until they actually play well against somebody that they should beat I'll pass. The most positive thing that I can see about the Utes right now, other than having B. Johnson back at QB, is the emergence of Darrel Mack (starting RB). The kid opened some eyes against UCLA (19 carries 107 yards) and has grabbed the RB#1 position. He's avg. over 5 yards a carry in 4 of the last 5 games with the only exception being a 4.2 avg. against Utah State. With a solid running game things are really going to open up for B. Johnson. I expect a big scoring output from the Utes.

BYU
Interesting line against UNLV. BYU has won 9 straight conference road games, but many of those were with Beck leading the troops. BYU will lose a road game this year to a team that they have no business losing. Will this be the one? Who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised. No injuries after the bye week and even Austin Collie will be back at WR in this game. Expecting a lower scoring game, but I'd want at least 52.5 to play the under.

UNLV
Well the stadium should be full this weekend. Yet again it'll be half full of the opponenets fans though. Their are many mormons in Vegas and they'll all show up for to watch their Cougars play.

The Rebels will be getting back David Peeples (starting RB) from a two week absence after a concussion. With the emergence of Summers they should have a pretty good 1-2 punch at RB. Summers is a huge kid that just runs over people. They'll probably need both of them against a stingy Cougar run defense.

BYU (3-2, 2-0 Mountain West) is one of three MWC teams, joining New Mexico and Wyoming, that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher this season.
The Cougars are allowing 99 yards rushing per game and rank 21st in the nation in run defense. That doesn't mean Mendenhall isn't worried about UNLV's running game.

"We'll have to play the run effectively, in terms of stopping Frank Summers," he said. "He's very physical and capable. They give you a lot of different things to defend."

TCU
Should get back starting center Blake Schlueter back this week. Certainly like to see him play as he's a SR and his replacement is a FR I believe.


Stanford's running game has struggled to only 110.4 yards per game this season, which ranks 97th nationally. Injuries have limited running back Toby Gerhart to only one game, an 140-yard effort against San Jose State.
But that is his only appearance this season, and he likely won't play against TCU because of a knee injury. Junior Anthony Kimble averages 64 yards a game.



Good luck to all this weekend.
 
OK...finally getting to the Aztecs this week.

In my opinion bro, it's Utah + points or no play. I'm leaning more toward "no play", simply because both of these teams have been quite inconsistent this season. SDSU's defense is porous, but...this is a revenge game for the Aztecs (lost at home 7-38 last season), so they could be inspired for this one. Both teams are terrible against the run, so if Bornes is a go, he could make a difference with his big play ability.

Having said all that, Utah has a big edge in coaching and pass defense, so...IMO, the Utes should cover. SDSU's best defensive performance this season was holding Portland State to 17 points. I shudder at the thought of what Utah might do to us.

BOL this week bud! :cheers:
 
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