JPicks
Pretty much a regular
2007 Record 30-23-1 (56.6%) +8.91 Units
2008 Record 10-8 +1.87 Units
Week 5 3-1 +1.74 Units
Week 6 Plays:
Navy +7 1 Unit
BYU -28 (-20c) 1 Unit
Utah -11 1 Unit
TCU/SDSU Under 48 1 unit
Navy/AFA Under 51 1 unit
WYO/NMU Under 45' 1 unit
UNLV ML +110 1 Unit
Week 5 Review
Wyo/BGU
Pretty much official now. Wyoming is done. Maybe they beat SDSU at home, but I wouldn't bet on it. Great fade material for the rest of the year. Coach Glenn is toast, lame duck situation. 5 TO's led to 31 Bowling Green points yesterday and the Cowboys have nobody who can play QB. They got desperate enough yesterday to throw in the fourth string guy and he even tossed a pic. It was pure comedy in Laramie yesterday except for the boys in Yellow.
On the box score side of things Wyoming did a great job of stopping the running game and didn't lose the total yard or first down stats by much. The 5 TO's did them in. 19 of them now in 5 games. I'd like to see what they'd look like w/out giving the other team 4 more possessions a game.
CAL/CSU
For those who laid 26, myself included, we got lucky.
Two special teams TD's and a pic 6 made Cal backers into winnners. CSU absolutely killed CAL in time of possession and surpassed them in total yards. I'll take it though.
TCU/OKLA
The Sooners are awesome. Nothing else to say. Four TO's and Manuel Johnson killed the Frogs. I don't think this game drops my opinion of TCU that much. They still held the Sooners to 25 yards rushing on 36 carries (0.7ypc) which is pretty damn amazing.
Idaho/SDSU
Ok so how bad is Idaho? 600 yards of offense to SDSU? I had no idea they were this bad, but I should have known after they gave up 580 to Utah State. Is it really possible for those two teams to get 1200 yards of total offense on you? Evidentely so. I'm betting the over in the rest of their games and I challenge you to do so as well. Anything under 65 is free money. Honestly I hope you're reading what I'm writing as these guys are horrible. Nevada is going to drop 55 on them this week w/out a problem. Anyways back to the Aztecs. Lindley is looking like he may become a nice QB for the Aztecs. Running game was pretty good, but I can't really evaluate anything against Idaho. The Vandals did have some success running the ball on the Aztecs as the DLine still looks like a concern.
NM/NMSU
Haven't seen this one yet so, but was happy to see the O cashed with a minute to go. I could have easily gotten screwed for not getting the early # in this one, but three 4th quarter TD's by the Lobos saved the day. No idea what the hell was going on with Gruner, but those aren't the #'s from a guy that sees down the field better as Long put it. Lying bastard. Had I known the Lobos were going to run the ball 63 times I wouldn't have been on the over. Holbrook tore up the UNM secondary pretty good and I suppose it's safe to say that UNM's secondary is bad. Surprisingly bad. Injury note for the Lobos: Rodney Ferguson played with or suffered a shoulder injury. No word yet on his status for next week.
Utah/WSU
Score not indicative of what happened. Utah ran dive play after dive play and did little else. You could tell from the moment the crowd gave former coach Ron McBride a huge standing ovation that this was going to a friendly match. The Utes starters didn't play any of the 4th and you could tell by the post game interviews that they had Oregone State on their mind.
Nevada/UNLV
Another one I haven't had a chance to watch yet, but obviously satisfied with the win here. If Nevada is putting up 600 yards on UNLV they'll put up 900 on Idaho. Rebels turned the ball over for the first time this year I see, but it looks like the story in this one was the Wolfpack rushing game. 444 yards on 58 carries (7.7 ypc) is getting it done. Interested to see if it was as bad on video as it looks in the box score.
Week 6 Previews: (Predicted Lines)
Oregon State @ Utah (-8) Thursday Night
Love the spot here for the Utes. The minute the Beavers upset the #1 Trojans last Thursday this became a possible play depending on the line. Utah is essentially coming off a scrimmage against Weber State and have been eying this game since they beat AFA. The win by OSU only helped to focus the Utes on seeking revenge for last year's loss.
Utah lost to the Beavers last year in their first game in Corvalis. In that game the Utes were w/out their 1st team All-MWC tackle, lost Brian Johnson in the 2nd quarter, starting RB Matt Asiata went down in the 1st quarter and the Utes couldn't recompose themselves before losing 24-7. This year they're going to face the Beavers nearly at full health, at home, and on a Thursday night game. Situationally I love this one. As far as personnel goes I'm more than confident in Utah's ability to run the ball in this game. I do have some worries about their pass protection, but that would probably be my only worry on the offensive side. On defense the guy the Utes will have to worry about is Rodgers. Utah defensive strength so far this year is stuffing the run, including holding the AFA Falcons to 53 yards, so not to worried about Rogers going off. USC was there all night, but couldn't wrap up. Also think those 37 carries are going to play an impact this year as Rogers was seen limping at the end of the game. Beyond Rogers I don't think the Beavers have much on the offensive side. Stroughter always scares me, but he's been pretty quite to this point. Pretty much a one dimensional team, especially on the road.
BYU @ Utah State (+31') Friday Night
Cougars rolling along with B2B shutouts and a 103-0 score over those two games. Hard to expect anything other than that here as well. Utah was 25' point favs in Logan and with BYU's recent history of shutouts/blowouts I expect them to be about a TD higher than that. Hard to think that USU stays within 5 TD's in this one from my point of view. I really don't like laying big #'s so I won't be on BYU, but I think you can expect another beat down.
The Aggies have been big DD dogs to the Cougars before and have stayed close so don't be shocked if it happens again, but I expect Mendenhall to take advantage of the Friday night lights and give the Top 25 voters a show.
UNLV @ CSU (PK)
Not sure you can favor either team in this spot. I favor the Rebels in this one as I think they have to much offense for the Rams to deal with. CSU is still having trouble running the ball and Billy Farris has never scared me as a guy who's going to be somebody. With Clayton and his two WR's (Wolfe and Flair)
really in a groove right now along Summers I don't see the Rams keeping up.
Navy @ AFA (-4') CIC Game
O/U for total passes has been set at 5 for this ground battle. AFA off a bye week to get ready for what is always their biggest game of the year. I'm not very interested in a side here, but I'd take a good long look at an under depending of course on the line. I like both teams abilities to slow down the running game along with the shortening of the game with 120 rushing attempts. Winner in the 20's and the loser in the teens.
SDSU @ TCU (-27')
Every time in the last three years that TCU has played a top 25 team they lose the following week. I don't think it happens here by any means, but it may be the one thing keeping me away from TCU. I set my line here as I think the books have been doing a pretty good job of taking away obvious sides. Anything below 21 would almost be a guaranteed play.
WYO @ NMU (-9)
NMU or nothing here and New Mexico has a QB who evidently can't pass so I'll pass on the game altogether. Also entertain an under play here as these teams have failed to hit 30 points total in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Check the status of Ferguson (shoulder).
I'm sick of writing.
2008 Record 10-8 +1.87 Units
Week 5 3-1 +1.74 Units
Week 6 Plays:
Navy +7 1 Unit
BYU -28 (-20c) 1 Unit
Utah -11 1 Unit
TCU/SDSU Under 48 1 unit
Navy/AFA Under 51 1 unit
WYO/NMU Under 45' 1 unit
UNLV ML +110 1 Unit
Week 5 Review
Wyo/BGU
Pretty much official now. Wyoming is done. Maybe they beat SDSU at home, but I wouldn't bet on it. Great fade material for the rest of the year. Coach Glenn is toast, lame duck situation. 5 TO's led to 31 Bowling Green points yesterday and the Cowboys have nobody who can play QB. They got desperate enough yesterday to throw in the fourth string guy and he even tossed a pic. It was pure comedy in Laramie yesterday except for the boys in Yellow.
On the box score side of things Wyoming did a great job of stopping the running game and didn't lose the total yard or first down stats by much. The 5 TO's did them in. 19 of them now in 5 games. I'd like to see what they'd look like w/out giving the other team 4 more possessions a game.
CAL/CSU
For those who laid 26, myself included, we got lucky.
Two special teams TD's and a pic 6 made Cal backers into winnners. CSU absolutely killed CAL in time of possession and surpassed them in total yards. I'll take it though. TCU/OKLA
The Sooners are awesome. Nothing else to say. Four TO's and Manuel Johnson killed the Frogs. I don't think this game drops my opinion of TCU that much. They still held the Sooners to 25 yards rushing on 36 carries (0.7ypc) which is pretty damn amazing.
Idaho/SDSU
Ok so how bad is Idaho? 600 yards of offense to SDSU? I had no idea they were this bad, but I should have known after they gave up 580 to Utah State. Is it really possible for those two teams to get 1200 yards of total offense on you? Evidentely so. I'm betting the over in the rest of their games and I challenge you to do so as well. Anything under 65 is free money. Honestly I hope you're reading what I'm writing as these guys are horrible. Nevada is going to drop 55 on them this week w/out a problem. Anyways back to the Aztecs. Lindley is looking like he may become a nice QB for the Aztecs. Running game was pretty good, but I can't really evaluate anything against Idaho. The Vandals did have some success running the ball on the Aztecs as the DLine still looks like a concern.
NM/NMSU
Haven't seen this one yet so, but was happy to see the O cashed with a minute to go. I could have easily gotten screwed for not getting the early # in this one, but three 4th quarter TD's by the Lobos saved the day. No idea what the hell was going on with Gruner, but those aren't the #'s from a guy that sees down the field better as Long put it. Lying bastard. Had I known the Lobos were going to run the ball 63 times I wouldn't have been on the over. Holbrook tore up the UNM secondary pretty good and I suppose it's safe to say that UNM's secondary is bad. Surprisingly bad. Injury note for the Lobos: Rodney Ferguson played with or suffered a shoulder injury. No word yet on his status for next week.
Utah/WSU
Score not indicative of what happened. Utah ran dive play after dive play and did little else. You could tell from the moment the crowd gave former coach Ron McBride a huge standing ovation that this was going to a friendly match. The Utes starters didn't play any of the 4th and you could tell by the post game interviews that they had Oregone State on their mind.
Nevada/UNLV
Another one I haven't had a chance to watch yet, but obviously satisfied with the win here. If Nevada is putting up 600 yards on UNLV they'll put up 900 on Idaho. Rebels turned the ball over for the first time this year I see, but it looks like the story in this one was the Wolfpack rushing game. 444 yards on 58 carries (7.7 ypc) is getting it done. Interested to see if it was as bad on video as it looks in the box score.
Week 6 Previews: (Predicted Lines)
Oregon State @ Utah (-8) Thursday Night
Love the spot here for the Utes. The minute the Beavers upset the #1 Trojans last Thursday this became a possible play depending on the line. Utah is essentially coming off a scrimmage against Weber State and have been eying this game since they beat AFA. The win by OSU only helped to focus the Utes on seeking revenge for last year's loss.
Utah lost to the Beavers last year in their first game in Corvalis. In that game the Utes were w/out their 1st team All-MWC tackle, lost Brian Johnson in the 2nd quarter, starting RB Matt Asiata went down in the 1st quarter and the Utes couldn't recompose themselves before losing 24-7. This year they're going to face the Beavers nearly at full health, at home, and on a Thursday night game. Situationally I love this one. As far as personnel goes I'm more than confident in Utah's ability to run the ball in this game. I do have some worries about their pass protection, but that would probably be my only worry on the offensive side. On defense the guy the Utes will have to worry about is Rodgers. Utah defensive strength so far this year is stuffing the run, including holding the AFA Falcons to 53 yards, so not to worried about Rogers going off. USC was there all night, but couldn't wrap up. Also think those 37 carries are going to play an impact this year as Rogers was seen limping at the end of the game. Beyond Rogers I don't think the Beavers have much on the offensive side. Stroughter always scares me, but he's been pretty quite to this point. Pretty much a one dimensional team, especially on the road.
BYU @ Utah State (+31') Friday Night
Cougars rolling along with B2B shutouts and a 103-0 score over those two games. Hard to expect anything other than that here as well. Utah was 25' point favs in Logan and with BYU's recent history of shutouts/blowouts I expect them to be about a TD higher than that. Hard to think that USU stays within 5 TD's in this one from my point of view. I really don't like laying big #'s so I won't be on BYU, but I think you can expect another beat down.
The Aggies have been big DD dogs to the Cougars before and have stayed close so don't be shocked if it happens again, but I expect Mendenhall to take advantage of the Friday night lights and give the Top 25 voters a show.
UNLV @ CSU (PK)
Not sure you can favor either team in this spot. I favor the Rebels in this one as I think they have to much offense for the Rams to deal with. CSU is still having trouble running the ball and Billy Farris has never scared me as a guy who's going to be somebody. With Clayton and his two WR's (Wolfe and Flair)
really in a groove right now along Summers I don't see the Rams keeping up.
Navy @ AFA (-4') CIC Game
O/U for total passes has been set at 5 for this ground battle. AFA off a bye week to get ready for what is always their biggest game of the year. I'm not very interested in a side here, but I'd take a good long look at an under depending of course on the line. I like both teams abilities to slow down the running game along with the shortening of the game with 120 rushing attempts. Winner in the 20's and the loser in the teens.
SDSU @ TCU (-27')
Every time in the last three years that TCU has played a top 25 team they lose the following week. I don't think it happens here by any means, but it may be the one thing keeping me away from TCU. I set my line here as I think the books have been doing a pretty good job of taking away obvious sides. Anything below 21 would almost be a guaranteed play.
WYO @ NMU (-9)
NMU or nothing here and New Mexico has a QB who evidently can't pass so I'll pass on the game altogether. Also entertain an under play here as these teams have failed to hit 30 points total in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Check the status of Ferguson (shoulder).
I'm sick of writing.
Last edited:
rayer
