MWC Week 5

[JPicks]

Season 11-7-1. +3.48 Units
Last week 2-2

Final Card

CSU +10.5
New Mexico +5.5
UCLA/OSU U 55
Idaho +25
SDSU +14.5

And now seeing it for the first time makes me realize I don't have a favorite in the place. Hmm.

ADD:
Maryland +18

And another dog. Either way it completes the six pack.


Well that makes three weeks of being .500 and one week of being 6-0. Guess I better make 6 plays this week as it must be the magic #. Gotta admit that I'm not even close to as prepared as I need to be this week. I've been out of town since last Thursday and while I've grabbed some #'s that I was hoping for earlier in the week I'm still looking over some current news to catch up on some things. Feel free to fire away any questions and I'll defintely get to them.

I'll update this thread tomorrow as I get more time to actually write about the matchups.


Navy/AFA

Really liking the boys in the sea here. If anybody knows much about the academy then you realize that they play a little round robin every year in hopes of winning the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Well it looks like new head coach Calhoun is playing it down a bit. Not sure if he's just trying to play it down, but this used to be the only game that mattered to AFA every year.

“It was a pretty big deal,” said senior defensive end Josh Clayton, who along with about 30 classmates will play his final game against Navy on Saturday at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. “And something we heard about pretty regularly.”

“Navy and Army were put on a pedestal by Fisher,” senior guard Caleb Morris said.

“In the past, when we had a bye week, all we would do was practice for Navy,” senior center Blaine Guenther added.

Enter first-year coach Troy Calhoun. Since taking over in December, the 1989 academy graduate has shifted the Falcons’ singular focus. In his first official news conference as coach, Calhoun called the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy a “key element of the program.” But he also made it clear that competing for conference titles and earning bowl bids were just as important. He reiterated that this week.


Buy into it however you want, but the fact remains that Navy has won the last 4 games vs. AFA. Leaning Navy -2.5.


UtahState/Utah

Lean Utah State here. I will not play this game as I'm 0-2 betting Utah games this year and that's good enough for me. I'll still consider totals for them, but minus them recieving more than 14 points @BYU to finish the season I'm done ATS. Utah offense is bad right now, but I still think the defense is solid enough to hold the Aggies down. Thinking of this game makes me want to throw up in my shoes. And to think I'll be there. Weather update for this game though for anybody willing to put money on it. 50 degrees and raining. It's been in the high 70's so I'd expect a sloppy game on the field turf.


UNLV/Nevada

Yet another rivalry game that is not a conference matchup. No doubt that all of the three games mentioned so far ARE rivalry games. Don't have a whole lot to say about this game other than Nevada is the pissed off little brother in this matchup. I'll go ahead and post something that I took off of a UNLV message board about this game. LEAN NEVADA -3 (If I can find it)


Look for Nevada to keep the Fremont Cannon when it takes on the UNLV
Rebels on Saturday. Coach Ault is one of the best coaches in the history of college football and has had two weeks to get ready for UNLV, and the spread shotgun attack. Ault is 17-7 against the spread coming off a bye and should have his troops ready for the in-state rivalry game. Ault is also 11-0 against the spread as a home favorite, winning those games by an average of 19.9 per game.

UNLV (2-2) is coming off of its biggest win since beating Arkansas in a
bowl game under head coach John Robinson. Coach Mike Sanford is on the hot seat and is looking for his program to finally turn the corner after two seasons of winning just two games. From a betting perspective, the Rebels
are just 2-8 against the spread as road underdogs under Sanford. The Rebels
struggled and were not impressive in their only road victory season, a 23-16 over lowly Utah State.

The Rebels are a much-improved team but have their weaknesses passing the
ball and defending the pass. On the season, redshirt freshman QB Travis Dixon has thrown just three touchdowns to go along with four interceptions. On the season, the Rebels are throwing for 187 yards per game. The Hawaii Rainbows abused the Rebels’ secondary with two different quarterbacks for 396 yards and three touchdowns.

Look for Coach Ault to have his team better prepared in this one, and help Nevada to keep the Fremont Cannon


TCU/CSU

Biggest news here is that Aaron Brown is back for TCU. He looked really good last week (11 rushes for 92 yards or 8.4 ypr) playing in limited action. Backup Joseph Turner has also been practicing this week. Both should be a big boost to the TCU offense which has been inept at best. Frogs did lose Tommy Blake for the next two games and he is by far the best defensive player in the league. TCU has 11 turnovers thru 3 games while only having 19 all last year. CSU has now lost 10 straight games which is quite unbelievable. CSU has managed to play well on the road (neutral sites) and they should have won last week vs Houston. They haven't got blown out yet this year and I don't think TCU has the offense to get it done here as CSU has managed to score 27 points in every game so far this year.

CSU +10.5


BYU/New Mexico

I might be late to my own party here but I said I'd fade BYU on the road and I'm finally going to do it. Max Hall is just a young QB who has consistently shown the propensity to turn over the ball. On the road he's had 5 turovers in 2 games. New Mexico has two outstanding WR's who can burn the BYU defense in the same fashion that Tulsa did. I'll have more on this one tomorrow.

New Mexico +5.5 and over 55


Cincinatti/SDSU

And the last one that I just don't have time to get to tonight. I'm surprised by the low total in all honesty. Not exactly sure how potent the Bearcats offense is as they've been given a short field all year long. They are #1 in the country in takeaways and they'll be facing the #1 team in not giving the ball away as the Aztecs have only turned it over twice all year. Probably sit this one out unless a +17 pops up somewhere. Being that it's the last game of the night on Saturday I won't be surprised to find one.


Other games I've played.

UCLA/OSU Under 55
Honestly a TD higher than I'd put it. Got burned by 41 points in the 4th quarter last week in the UCLA game and I hope it doesn't happen again.

Idaho +25
Really liked the Vandals here and was played it after reading Hawaii guy's thread. It's got to be tough for those guys to spend 10 days on the mainland just to go home and beat up a horrible team and then fly back to the mainland and play at a stadium where you can't even fly into without bussing across a state line.

 

[B.A.R.]

On that UCLA under at 56.5 and going to add here shortly. I like it a lot

I am also getting ready to fire away on CSU. Glad to see you like it.

Liked New Mexico a bit but it got Dr. Bobbed today.

 

[RetroVK]

Great information as always jpicks.

was watching the news through my memphis +4 tears tonight and saw some unlv coverage. The rebels were talking a lot of smack about the upcoming game at nevada , including Sanford. They talked about where on the plane that they plan on putting the cannon and stated that after the game they are going to paint the cannon red. Meaningless for the most part but they do sound confident.

seeing that ucla under popping up a few places and i think i like it as well. CSU may win that game straight up... something wrong with that tcu team ... mostly offensive line. Hanie is pretty solid. Careful on that new mexico total .. these two teams historically play close games that go under a 55. last year was the exception
2006 59 points scored
2005 51 points scored
2004 35 points scored
2003 17 points scored
2002 36 points scored
of course the games have generally been close too so that trends to taking your good points there. i guess if you post 5 plays and there is only one that i really question i can safely say we are in agreement mostly. good luck this week jpicks and be sure to add any last minute injuries or suspensions or notes of interest. really appreciate this thread each week.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

great stuff, jpicks. agree w/ jsut about everything...especially your plays.

BAR never gives me credit for those totals i give him, lol.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Cincinatti/SDSU

And the last one that I just don't have time to get to tonight. I'm surprised by the low total in all honesty. Not exactly sure how potent the Bearcats offense is as they've been given a short field all year long. They are #1 in the country in takeaways and they'll be facing the #1 team in not giving the ball away as the Aztecs have only turned it over twice all year. Probably sit this one out unless a +17 pops up somewhere. Being that it's the last game of the night on Saturday I won't be surprised to find one.


Good points, bro! If the line does hit +17, I may even jump on the Aztecs!

:hang:

 

[JPicks]

B.A.R. I still think if you can get a 4.5 it will be solid on New Mexico. I guess it all depends on how big your card is and whether you're looking to add to it or not. I don't expect anything more than a field goal to win this one and BYU doesn't have a kicker that's worth a shit. Lobos win outright.

Kyle -- You live in Vegas right? I thought I read that somewhere, but anyways I'm not sure what the hell is up with this rebel team. I hear they were talking trash after the Utah game about how the Utes didn't even try to tackle them and how they were scared of getting hit most of the time. I do agree with them after watching the replay of that game, but who the hell says that stuff? Sanford is a loose cannon, but I guess if he can turn it around over there then good for him. Either way the Rebels can be as confident as they want, but the fact remains they've played one road game all year and they had to score 20 points in the 2nd half to beat Utah State. I'm really liking Nevada even more today, but I'd still like a -3.

 

[JPicks]

yanks-- Were you on the UCLA total last week? I never saw what happened as I was gone all weekend, but 41 in the 4th? That sucked. Don't worry about BAR stealing your totals, he's a forum slut. lol

Aztec-- What the hell is going on down there in San Diego? I was reading about some philosophy teacher wanting to shut down the football program? That's some crazy shit. Is it just something that a reporter decided to grab and write about or is there actually any momentum for it? The other part of this SDSU game Saturday night is that it is a terrible sandwich spot for Cincy. They play @ Rutgers (#10, conference opponent) in Week 6. Big time look ahead possibility here. Also this will be the first time they travel out of Ohio this year and will basically playing what equates to a 10 pm start for them. I'm really liking the Aztecs right now.

 

[RetroVK]

jpicks -- i have no opinion on the nevada game... in no hurry to back nevada at this point and as you said ... who wants to run to the window and bet on unlv on the road? Was just adding a little local tidbit into your mwc stuff.

on the air force - navy affair ---- do you think calhoun airs it out with Carney in this one to exploit navys secondary weakness or do we see more of the same run/pass distribution this week ??

also , figure you follow utah state somewhat given you are in utah. I see a very good betting opportunity against them next week regardless of outcome saturday. Have to travel to hawaii immediately following their biggest rivalry game of the year. any reasonable line might be playable. thoughts ?

 

[JPicks]

Kyle--No idea about Calhoun airing it out. Unless you're his wife I doubt anybody has any idea this week. Hard to get any infor when all the papers, message boards, players, and coaches are talking about is the rivalry. I honestly don't think you'll see anything much different from the Falcons than you've seen all year. They'd be wise to though as both of their wideouts are 6'2" while Navy started a 5'7" corner (Terry). The Falcons got Chad Smith (2nd stright RB out of camp) back last week and will get Kip McCarthy (1st RB out of camp) back this week. These guys are much better than Jim Ollis and Savier Stephens. Navy is just a bad defensive team anyway you look at it. They gave up 262 yards rushing on 42 carries against Ball State and Rutgers easily ran for 5 ypc against them for 200+ yards as well. The more I think about this game the more I'm convinced it's going to be like every other AFA/Navy game and decided by a field goal. No real advantage to either team there.


Not sure what to say about Utah State. I don't get alot of coverage on them here mainly due to the fact that they are so bad. During basketball season radio stations will do weekly interviews with their coaches, but during football season they are the forgotten child. And for what it's worth nobody in the state really cares abou this game. It really won't be a rivalry until the Aggies can start making any of the games close. They've been so bad recently that BYU dropped them from their schedule and their is a much bigger disdain towards the Cougars vs the Utes from the Aggies point of view. Back to your question: Hawaii can essentially name their score. Aggies won't be anymore up or down for it from the Utah game. I'd expect a 53-10 kind of score and the one red flag I see is a Friday night game on the mainland for Hawaii that might get some of the 1st team out a bit quicker than normal. I personally don't like games where the spreads are larger than say -21 unless I'm betting the dog and I think it'll be a really close game.

I think I just rambled for awhile, but hopefully you found some of this helpful.

 

[RetroVK]

thanks for answering my questions, jpicks. gl this week.

 

[Ray]

GL

 

[counselor]

I love you guys....:cheers:

You two have some serious insight on the MWC. Love it. I don't know if you noticed JPicks, but I went larger-than-normal on Nevada, as well. Not based off anything except history, really. I know Nevada has traditionally been tough at home, especially in this series (a la Iowa/Iowa St.), and UNLV has not been a traditional road warrior. Although I believe Stanford is on the right track with this team, they are still way too schitzophrenic and inconsistent. I'm just more comfortable giving the 3 (had to buy the hook, but I don't care) to the home fav.

Will add to my already bloated card with your plays today, as well. Good luck to us today and take care....

 

[JPicks]

Couple of notes on Gameday:

BYU/NewMexico

Winds of 20+ expected all day with a 40% chance of rain.
Played the UNDER 55 +103 and I'm out of it. I guess if a little bit of weather was enough to get me off the game then I probably shouldn't have been on it to begin with.

UTAH/USU

Also very windy with a 80% chance of rain and it'll only be 43 degrees by gametime. Brrrrr. (Sorry I was thinking about the tailgate part of it)

Air Force/Navy

Nothing new here. It'll be windy, but who cares? They're both going to run the ball 60 times a piece. Air Force sunk a "pleasure" boat last night on campus as a fun prank that had "Beat Navy" written on it. Evidently retaliation for Navy spraying one of AFA's planes with the Navy colors last year. I'm not sure how these guys can't protect their campuses, but whatever. Still like Navy here, but with a couple posters who I respect on AFA, I'll pass.

SDSU/Cinncy

Played SDSU +14.5 I don't see this going any farther and I just can't pass up this situational spot. Cross country flight to play a cupcake the week before conference play starts against a top 10 team on the road. And just for added incentive the Bearcats just joined the top 25. One last thing. "RUMOR" and I emphasize rumor for a reason has it that the Aztecs might have forgot to mow the grass this week in preperation for the Bearcats. It will be the first week that the Bearcats have played on grass and it might be 3 inches tall when they get there. Just a funny little tidbit I suppose.

CSU/TCU

Weather: 88 and the humidity won't be horrible. CSU just played at Houston so I don't think the weather should have a huge effect on them. Many around the CSU circles think their 2nd half meltdown last week had alot to do with the weather and cramps. Not saying I agree just that I'm reading it.

TCU:Seemed to be really excited about having Brown and Turner back. They'll be playing both Dalton and Marcus at QB today from the looks of things. CSU:These guys are desperate right now for a win. I'm not sure there has ever been a team that has lost 10 in a row that was so close in nearly all of them. I won't be surprised if the Rams win this SU.

 

[Aztec4Life]

yanks-- Were you on the UCLA total last week? I never saw what happened as I was gone all weekend, but 41 in the 4th? That sucked. Don't worry about BAR stealing your totals, he's a forum slut. lol

Aztec-- What the hell is going on down there in San Diego? I was reading about some philosophy teacher wanting to shut down the football program? That's some crazy shit. Is it just something that a reporter decided to grab and write about or is there actually any momentum for it? The other part of this SDSU game Saturday night is that it is a terrible sandwich spot for Cincy. They play @ Rutgers (#10, conference opponent) in Week 6. Big time look ahead possibility here. Also this will be the first time they travel out of Ohio this year and will basically playing what equates to a 10 pm start for them. I'm really liking the Aztecs right now.

Got an article you could give me a link to or somethin?