Moneyline Dogs???

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
They have performed quite poorly thus far by my tracking. It will not last and I do believe there will be some money to be made here in the last 2/3 of the season

Who is everyone lookin at this week? My radar includes

SJSU
UVA - Galt???
Troy
ECU
Ole Piss - thoughts from Bama guys if this is trap game?
Domers
Tulane - twank????
UCF - is this trap city ETG??
Texas State
Hawiaii - where ya at HG??
 
I really like LSU and Kent St.

I really don't like Texas St and SJSU.

SJSU is bad this year on the lines, and have zero run game to help Fales. Keaton should be able to do what he wants against them.

Kent St should get back Archer and OL McShane, 2 key parts of their explosive offense. I'd like to know how healthy they are, but regardless I think Kent St wins
 
I'm 0-2 on them this year, haven't played many, but do like to take chances on dogs of 6 or more pts. This week my pool of contenders would be: UTEP, Tulane, FAU, and maybe ECU. Troy even though I'm still pissed at them....and perhaps Ark St for a not-bad long shot. Both those teams burned me bad last week, but I don't see Duke or even Mizzou being enormously better than the teams they take on this week, that is as long as the real Troy and Ark St takes the field this week instead of last week's pretenders.

If Ole Miss was playing in Oxford, maybe.

I think S Car can overcome UCF, but it might not be easy.

I know very little about Tex St and Hawaii.
 
Conference season getting into swing...they should start hitting at a better percentage.
 
Have you ever seen Dave Bartoo's stuff? He runs a website called cfbmatrix.com (college football matrix) where he predicts winners and losers in May based strictly on talent rankings. He has small adjustments for home field advantage and coaching, but mainly his predictions are based on which team has recruited the best over the past 5 seasons.

Anyway, his formula works pretty damn well. It is right between 76 and 80% of the time (depends on the year) picking straight winners which is a fair amount better than Vegas. I have no idea how his formula works against the spread.

Each week, you can look at his picks and figure out which ones are upset specials by seeing who he picked and comparing them to who is favored in Vegas. His upset specials turned a very healthy profit last year if you bet them on money lines.

Here are the candidates this week (games where he picked a winner but Vegas has them as a dog):
[TABLE="width: 118"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]va tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]iowa state[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]san jose state[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]usc[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]west virginia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]tulane[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]purdue[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]toledo[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]notre dame[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]la tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]western kentucky[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]hawaii[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Arizona not on anyone's radar?? As a UW fan, this game scares the crap out of me -- I have no belief that we can stop this offense -- last team with the ball wins.
 
Schrute said:
They have performed quite poorly thus far by my tracking. It will not last and I do believe there will be some money to be made here in the last 2/3 of the season

Who is everyone lookin at this week? My radar includes

SJSU
UVA - Galt???
Troy
ECU
Ole Piss - thoughts from Bama guys if this is trap game?
Domers
Tulane - twank????
UCF - is this trap city ETG??
Texas State
Hawiaii - where ya at HG??
Click to expand...

Hard to not consider Tulane here....little revenge angle after they got dismantled by ULM at home last year.

Having a Tulane bet is very bad for one's health though....
 
I'm looking at Va Tech and N Dame, Au Domer.

I won a lot of money on SJS last year, but they are not the same team now that MacIntyre has moved on. Not a bad team, just not at the level they were last year.

The rest I have no interest in except to perhaps bet against them. I made a decision about 10 years ago to never bet on a bad team to do anything. It saved me more money than any other gambling decision I ever made.

Vegas guys love to say "the money you win on bad teams is just as real as the money you win on good teams." Correct as far as it goes, but you rarely win on bad teams. There is a direct correlation between losing SU and losing ATS.
 
I'm with Jimmy. Love the way the game sets up for Arizona, and there is great value there IMO. Also like USC, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech.

Admittedly, the last two aren't huge payouts, but that doesn't change the fact that I think both of them should be favored.
 
Last edited:
It is tough not to like ECU. They are coming off a bye and only have Middle Tennesse State on deck. UNC is coming off a loss against Georgia Tech and they have Virginia Tech on deck. ECU will be up for this game, as they would like nothing more than to beat the in state Tar Heels. UNC is at home, but their fans do not make their stadium much of a home field advantage. ECU's defense looks decent or good enough to keep them in the game.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm looking at Va Tech and N Dame, Au Domer.

I won a lot of money on SJS last year, but they are not the same team now that MacIntyre has moved on. Not a bad team, just not at the level they were last year.

The rest I have no interest in except to perhaps bet against them. I made a decision about 10 years ago to never bet on a bad team to do anything. It saved me more money than any other gambling decision I ever made.

Vegas guys love to say "the money you win on bad teams is just as real as the money you win on good teams." Correct as far as it goes, but you rarely win on bad teams. There is a direct correlation between losing SU and losing ATS.
Click to expand...
Must not bet cfb too much...not sure i get the post really soal
 
GatorsLeafsBills said:
Games that jumped to me

Toledo +115
Minnesota -102
LSU +130
Notre Dame +150
Central Florida +250
Kentucky +380
Click to expand...
Let's talk Kentucky...first night game, place should be pretty wild(or wild for UK)

Wish we had Drizzy starting instead...

Of course the worry is UK vs FLA defense....but this is UKs shot to beat em, if there ever was one. 1986 was the last time I think.
 
twinkie13 said:
Let's talk Kentucky...first night game, place should be pretty wild(or wild for UK)

Wish we had Drizzy starting instead...

Of course the worry is UK vs FLA defense....but this is UKs shot to beat em, if there ever was one. 1986 was the last time I think.
Click to expand...

UK's been lined as a relatively small dog a couple times the last dozen years or so, once when Zook was there and once with Meyer. Those UK teams had some horses though like Lorenzen-Abney and Woodson-Burton teams. Those Rich Brooks late-00 teams had lots of talent that is now starting in the NFL, including on D, and they couldn't do it.

Who or what can/does this UK team hang their hat on?

Some people like UK though as line has dropped. I'd need somebody to show me the light on that one.
 
Spurrier is 7-1 off a bye @ USC and with UCF being undefeated and coming off a road win @ PSU, I think they have SCar's attention.
 
s--k said:
UK's been lined as a relatively small dog a couple times the last dozen years or so, once when Zook was there and once with Meyer. Those UK teams had some horses though like Lorenzen-Abney and Woodson-Burton teams. Those Rich Brooks late-00 teams had lots of talent that is now starting in the NFL, including on D, and they couldn't do it.

Who or what can/does this UK team hang their hat on?

Some people like UK though as line has dropped. I'd need somebody to show me the light on that one.
Click to expand...
they kinda hung with Ville....tons of dropped passes. Some turnovers

Im not ready to bet it, but Id have UK or nothing
 
twinkie13 said:
they kinda hung with Ville....tons of dropped passes. Some turnovers

Im not ready to bet it, but Id have UK or nothing
Click to expand...

True.

I can't see anything but offensive struggles for Cats vs UF though, same can be said for Gators as well. Under maybe?
 
Will be at the "white out" in Atlanta Thursday with the retro jerseys vs. rock helmet battle. That low total at -7 is ripe for ml dog and has me scared. Attochu screwed a possible win 2 years ago at home with personal foul on Logan and they lost last year in ot. Their either due or someone got their number. The road team and underdog is 6-1 ATS last seven.

I like vad lees intensity but he is too wound up. The backup qb , justin thomas is transfer from bama and is fastest dude on team 4.3

i saw quite a few gt players showed out for apu.

Paul Johnson is unhappy with players on his squad showing support for the APU because it was hidden from the team rather than for what the protest was standing for.
 
I'm surprised to see so much interest in UK. I think the Gators are one of the best plays on the board.
 
M.W. said:
I'm surprised to see so much interest in UK. I think the Gators are one of the best plays on the board.
Click to expand...
Ville won 27-13 in an early start time. Id say Ville has a more prolific offense than UF. They gotta start a new QB(essentially) OTR(however you feel about Drizzy)

Again I havent played it yet, but UK intrigues me a good bit.\

What did you make the line? Id much prefer the 2 tds...
 
Sure they get up for that KJ. This is a night game and I am not sure FLA needs to be laying this many on the road in the SEC just yet
 
Will be at the "white out" in Atlanta Thursday with the retro jerseys vs. rock helmet battle. That low total at -7 is ripe for ml dog and has me scared. Attochu screwed a possible win 2 years ago at home with personal foul on Logan and they lost last year in ot. Their either due or someone got their number. The road team and underdog is 6-1 ATS last seven.
Click to expand...

Additionally GT has never been fav vs VT under Johnson also (dating back to '08). So all their covers (5-1) have come as dogs. They beat VT at home in '09 but did so as 3' pt dog. Only one game since '08 has been decided by more than 7 pts.
 
This will be Murphys 1st ever road start. Florida will not score much in this game. Expect another 2-3 Turnovers from the offense and some short field position for Kentucky.
 
Bama seniors (AJ Mac and Mosely) held a players only team meeting and dog cussed the oline (AJ) for lack of communication and the entire D(CJ Mose) for lack of effort. They will be up for this game. I don't think there is much value taking Ole Miss on the ML. Last week was a bad spot and a great time to bet against Bam. This week, I don't think so. GL(unless you play miss ML)

Also, next week is Georgia State... then UK, so obviously zero lookahead. god i love the schedule.
 
love SJS getting +10 to the bank get there Monday because the bank will run out of money
 
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