Monday Night Football ***Fins vs. Tampons*** Discussion

  • Thread starter Thread starter joebrensports
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These two teams played in the 3rd preseason game with TB scoring a late TD to win 17-16. Mia outgained TB about 2-1, but had 3 turnovers in that game.
 
Lean to TB at home. They played hard and almost won at the toughest place to play in the NFL. JAX won and left them the only winless team which has to motivate them. Weak opponent missing two of its OT's, presumably means lots of blitzes against a mediocre QB.
 
I like the Phish. Tampa after a heartbreaking OT loss...People thinking Miami is too distracted. I think the opposite; this will be an us vs the world mentality tonight.
 
Is that ats streak of teams that play Seattle lose the next week still alive? Even without that I like Miami. Agree with last post. And Revis blows.
 
Played the Bucs +3 -130 yesterday.....Bucs have been better lately and almost/should have tasted victory last week. Stupid ass Fins refuse to give Lamar Miller the touches he deserves.....obvious OL issues for Fins. Pretty sure the winless team ATS angle is solid this late in the year?

Small play.
 
how in the world do u cap these two teams that are similiar in a few ways..
 
"Grasping at straws" statistic:

Since 2011, regardless of home/away, Miami has averaged between 25-26 points in their wins and they have averaged between 15-16 points in their losses.
 
Bucs average 11 Pts 1H and 4.4 Pts 2H this season. They average 1.2 Pts 3Q and have only scored twice in the 3Q in 8 games.
 
Fade friend is on TB. Colin Cowherd is on TB. Who is Lang on? If he is on TB, might have to bet the mortgage on Miami.
 
This would be a perfect Thursday night game. I think betting this shit may not even make it interesting...won't stop me just saying it will still be uninteresting. Going over, something has to give.
 
A few primetime stats -

There's been 2 key factors behind primetime game total results thus far this season, expressed through the following questions:

What will the loser score?

Games in which the loser has scored 10 pts or less have gone 7-0 to Under.

Games in which the loser has scored at least 11 pts have gone 19-4 to Over.


Who will cover ATS: the Home or Road team?

Games which the home team covered have gone 9-8 to Under.

Games which the Road team covered have gone 10-3 to Over.


General total stats overall
1st half...: 16-13-1
2nd half..: 19-10-1 to Over
Full-game: 19-11 to Over

General total stats - MNF
1st half...: 6-4 to Over
2nd half..: 5-4-1 to Under
Full-game: 5-5


Only 3 primetime games this season have had a 1st half go Over & a 2nd half go Under., compared to 6 games having had a 1st half go Under & a 2nd half go Over.

No Road team has yet opened the scoring with a TD on MNF, an unusual absence half-way through the season.

---------

1 other primetime stat streak in play I've never noted before is: the last 7 1st scoring teams have lost SU (taking the overall mark for the PT season to 14-16 SU). To put that into some kind of context, here are the 1st scoring teams SU results thus far this season...

Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 8-6
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-4
Week 9: 7-6
Week 10: 7-6
Overall: 93-53 (63.7% win rate)

Around 60-65% is the ballpark I'd expect to see this figure sit in, with the longest losing streaks being 4-5 games (the highest I can previous recall seeing, but having mislaid my PT stat sheets going back to 2000, I can't present precise figures). But by whatever measure - primetime games alone or regular season games taken as a whle, this is a highly unusual occurrence. As far as live betting goes, historical stats on this front say it's time to be wary betting SU against the team who scores 1st.
 
You can argue that Tampa Bay has the strongest SOS in the NFL. Their opponents this season are 46-28 SU (.621) and 41-32-1 ATS (.562).
 
Teams playing as a home dog following a meeting with the Seahawks are 3-15 straight up and 4-11-3 against the spread since 2010 (active on Tampa Bay). Teams coming off a Thursday game and playing as a favorite are 11-1 straight up and 10-2 against the spread this season.
 
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