Been on a nice roll this weekend...so much nicer without 50 CFB games...
On to Monday..
Portland travels to Philly
Lets clear the air on the Sixers. From today on we should erase AI from the Sixers. You cant look at the Sixers and think w/o AI.....His loss will be overcome from the collection of players who will benefit from his eventual trade. His loss will be felt in the 4th Q when you know who is getting the ball for the crucial possessions. The truth is there havent been many crucial 4th Q possessions of late so I am with the camp his loss is more indivual talent then overall team strength...
Basically dont look at the Sixers -3.5 versus Portland and say there w/o AI and still favored..
The Blazers are 4-8 away. For whatever reason they are the team that either fails to covet the spread Or manages an upset SU win. There 4 wins have come as dogs of 7 or better in Tor , NJ , Sea , & Det...when they dont win they are 0-8 SU / ATS on the road...this is not a new "trend" it happened in similiar fashion last season just not the same extreme.
We can knock Philly all we want but remember this Port team was +7 in game not involving Bosh or Randolph...Now there are some changes on both sides but last season with AI the 76ers were -10 at home and easily covered....
In the 4th Q Port proved that w/o Randolph they dont have another scorer. Jarrett Jack had a great start which may have had to do with the fact he was thought to be going against ex-Jacket Chris Bosh...or maye it had nothing to do with it...This Philly team has many players who can score starting with CWebb , Korver , Green , Carney , Igudola and so on..
Port on this trip has played very well going 2-2 SU including a loss in OT and 2nd H collapse in Indiana...The bottomline is Philly has played better in the road games(Orl & Milw) without AI then at home (Det & Wash)..today they get an opponent they can beat and they can hold a lead on.....
I wont touch a total yet...w./o AI 84 , 87 , 94 , 98...outside of teh Wsh game when they just got smoking hot they have played some D lately. Port has attempted to also play some D on this trip holding teams closer to 45% then the previous 51%.......the Blazer offense has improved though from the mid 80's to the low 90's....could you see 98-92??
<LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. <LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. <LI class=morecool>Trail Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>Alot of rambling and there is no way to paint a picture of Philly as they are an unknown. What you can do is simply ask yourself who wins? I look at the Sixers team that has continually battled and finally gets an easy opponent..they shot 52 % in Orlando , had 21 assists and 11 blocks. They had 29 assists vs Wash and 50% shooting...
Play : Sixers -3.5 -110 (Medium/Large)
Phoenix @ Orlando
We all understand why this is a tricky game. Suns on fire are now playing that magical 4th game in 5 nites. The kicker here is they get a so called rested opponent who plays a much different style.
Even on this trip if you check the Suns road games we are not talking impressive basketball minus Charlotte & Portland. First 4 road games were losses in LAL w/o Kobe , in LAC in a revenge spot , in SA in OT , in Utah in OT. They managed a buzzer beating 3 in GS w/o Baron Davis , they played Double OT in NJ and won by 4 , they beat a Wally-less Boston squad by 5 and it was that close all game. Last season Orl won by 9 and lost by 5 versus Phoenix and there are some personel differences..
Orlando has not played as well in Dec as November but I would still have Orlando as -2 here. So with the market moving the line down that creates value..It is extremely tough to go an extended trips and win SU and ATS in all the games...at 3-0 SU & ATS whats the tougher situation...@ Orlando(also a 5th in 7) here or in Miami in 2 days??
The Magic have played very well against Western teams where as Phoenix has actually struggled some....Magic are 3-2 SU past 5 at home vs Phoenix with the losses by 2 and 3 pts....This is the best of the Orlando teams IMO...
If I were to expect ORL to win it would be playing theer style so an Under 210 would look attractive. Especially since the OVER road streak is now over......Heavy lean under 210/209.5...
Play : Magic ML -102(wait though)Or +1 -110 (XLarge)...the line was correct and is now becoming soft IMO..
Memphis travels to NJ
You have the Grizz at 2-10 on the road versus the spiraling Nets who have dropped 9 of 11 barely squeaking by Philly and Boston....basically I could deal with NJ -6 here since I thought that was fair but 7.5 now?? That makes no sense....Memphis is definetly a team that can lay an egg and get blown out exactly what NJ needs. Until they do it though to someone nothng has changed its still a team that has lost to Char and Bos at home laying 7 and 8 recently?? It sseems the more desperate NJ gets the higher there lines get? Simply cause the market will still back them..
--Grizzlies are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NBA Atlantic
--Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
<LI class=more>Nets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-18-2 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Lean : Memphis +7.5 -110
Boston @ NYK
I think the NYK may have found themselves. In three of the past 4 gmes they have played like they had a clue. Curry is becoming a force and we now will be welcoming back Jared Jeffries which ultimately means Channing Frye must go...
What should this line be? First meeting @ the Garden NYK lose by 4 as small favs then they go the Fleet Center as 4 pt dogs and smoked Boston. They wont have Wally here and there lack of size with Al Jefferson in the middle could be an issue.....also Al off a career nite in hisyoung career could be FLAT here. Can he contain Curry? If he does then what about David Lee on the glass?
Celtics are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblHeadToHead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2><LI class=morehot>Celtics are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York. <LI class=more>Celtics are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings
past trends point to Boston here but after a big effort in NJ they needed everything to go right. Remember they started down 22-2 now they et a team IMO that could be starting to click....
Play : Knicks -2.5 (wait) & over 206 (lean)
Tor @ Miami
All I know is Bosh is OUT and Wade , Willaims , Payton are all Questionable.....probably nothing to look at with so many injuries..
Cavs @ New Orleans
With Hughes back tightening up the Defense and Gooden questionable with a groin injury there could be some scoring droughts. The Hornets have failed to crack 83 in 6 of 8 with FIVE failing to break 80...For the road Cavs they have failed to crack 88 in 5 of 8 away . The times they did Atl , Wash and NYK...Hornets still w/o the trio...
While it flies under the radar ONLY Three Cavs opponents have broken 100. Both teams rebound well and hold opps to 44 % shooting but both also shot wosre then 42% in the home / away situation...Now take away there 2 good scoring games in the past 7 and you will see then are just under 39% shooting...
So while I thought about the Under I missed 183!! Might hav eto figure out an exotic way to play it.....
The Hornets are reeling but I am not ina rush to lay chalk with Cle on the road....Cavs ahve struggled in NO losing going 3-2 with all the wins bya FG or less...I absolutely expect this to be played in the 80's.....
Trends...
OU Trends
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsVisitorOU cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>Cleveland</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeOU cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>New Orleans</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
Indiana @ Chicago
Looks like O'Neal and Stephen Jackson are out...the Pacers offense is in serious trouble then. The UNDER seems so obvious but if the Pacers employ a "small" lineup that means a faster paced game..
Basically Chi has hit a few bumps playing some higher quality teams but Indy minus a few stars isnt exactly quality...I do caution that CHI didnt appear mentally ready to play a short handed NO team so that is an issue for concern...taking Indy lightily.....
Just gonna sit tight on this game there is no reason to dive in...
Dallas @ Utah
The Jazz are 10-1 at home playing for Sloan's 1000 win and are basically a dog???????? Dallas hit a couple of bumps lately but straightened themselves out vs Denver. However the bench is thin and Stackhouse and Croshere are injured .... The Nuggets play no defense and the trio went 30-58 Howard , Dirk and Terry...the Jazz with there impress frontline are a much tougher task and worse matchup IMO...
Here is the underlying key: Jazz shoot 49 % at home against a team that allows 48%.....Dallas shoots only 45% and Utah allows 43%
Utah has to much depth and to much size.....the betting public get down on a team when they lose on the road.....I think the Dallas will have to work for there baskets here and that means an Under in the end cause 195 is just to high....
Play: Utah ML (Large)
Spurs @ LAC
Basically we know SA is bad on back end of back to backs versus quality teams...LAC qualifies as quality. They also have revenge on there minds after being embarrassed.
LAC is 9-2 at home but Maggette is questionable here..
I think the line is a little fat as they have been 2.5 or less past visits...LAC is just 1-2 but a loss was in OT....
I really think its a simple play here.....LAC has revenge , Spurs have struggles on backends and you have a line that is probably a little off...
Dont really need to get deeper then that...
Play: Clippers +3 -110 (XLarge) ML +124 (Small)
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On to Monday..
Portland travels to Philly
Lets clear the air on the Sixers. From today on we should erase AI from the Sixers. You cant look at the Sixers and think w/o AI.....His loss will be overcome from the collection of players who will benefit from his eventual trade. His loss will be felt in the 4th Q when you know who is getting the ball for the crucial possessions. The truth is there havent been many crucial 4th Q possessions of late so I am with the camp his loss is more indivual talent then overall team strength...
Basically dont look at the Sixers -3.5 versus Portland and say there w/o AI and still favored..
The Blazers are 4-8 away. For whatever reason they are the team that either fails to covet the spread Or manages an upset SU win. There 4 wins have come as dogs of 7 or better in Tor , NJ , Sea , & Det...when they dont win they are 0-8 SU / ATS on the road...this is not a new "trend" it happened in similiar fashion last season just not the same extreme.
We can knock Philly all we want but remember this Port team was +7 in game not involving Bosh or Randolph...Now there are some changes on both sides but last season with AI the 76ers were -10 at home and easily covered....
In the 4th Q Port proved that w/o Randolph they dont have another scorer. Jarrett Jack had a great start which may have had to do with the fact he was thought to be going against ex-Jacket Chris Bosh...or maye it had nothing to do with it...This Philly team has many players who can score starting with CWebb , Korver , Green , Carney , Igudola and so on..
Port on this trip has played very well going 2-2 SU including a loss in OT and 2nd H collapse in Indiana...The bottomline is Philly has played better in the road games(Orl & Milw) without AI then at home (Det & Wash)..today they get an opponent they can beat and they can hold a lead on.....
I wont touch a total yet...w./o AI 84 , 87 , 94 , 98...outside of teh Wsh game when they just got smoking hot they have played some D lately. Port has attempted to also play some D on this trip holding teams closer to 45% then the previous 51%.......the Blazer offense has improved though from the mid 80's to the low 90's....could you see 98-92??
<LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. <LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. <LI class=morecool>Trail Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeATS cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>Alot of rambling and there is no way to paint a picture of Philly as they are an unknown. What you can do is simply ask yourself who wins? I look at the Sixers team that has continually battled and finally gets an easy opponent..they shot 52 % in Orlando , had 21 assists and 11 blocks. They had 29 assists vs Wash and 50% shooting...
Play : Sixers -3.5 -110 (Medium/Large)
Phoenix @ Orlando
We all understand why this is a tricky game. Suns on fire are now playing that magical 4th game in 5 nites. The kicker here is they get a so called rested opponent who plays a much different style.
Even on this trip if you check the Suns road games we are not talking impressive basketball minus Charlotte & Portland. First 4 road games were losses in LAL w/o Kobe , in LAC in a revenge spot , in SA in OT , in Utah in OT. They managed a buzzer beating 3 in GS w/o Baron Davis , they played Double OT in NJ and won by 4 , they beat a Wally-less Boston squad by 5 and it was that close all game. Last season Orl won by 9 and lost by 5 versus Phoenix and there are some personel differences..
Orlando has not played as well in Dec as November but I would still have Orlando as -2 here. So with the market moving the line down that creates value..It is extremely tough to go an extended trips and win SU and ATS in all the games...at 3-0 SU & ATS whats the tougher situation...@ Orlando(also a 5th in 7) here or in Miami in 2 days??
The Magic have played very well against Western teams where as Phoenix has actually struggled some....Magic are 3-2 SU past 5 at home vs Phoenix with the losses by 2 and 3 pts....This is the best of the Orlando teams IMO...
If I were to expect ORL to win it would be playing theer style so an Under 210 would look attractive. Especially since the OVER road streak is now over......Heavy lean under 210/209.5...
Play : Magic ML -102(wait though)Or +1 -110 (XLarge)...the line was correct and is now becoming soft IMO..
Memphis travels to NJ
You have the Grizz at 2-10 on the road versus the spiraling Nets who have dropped 9 of 11 barely squeaking by Philly and Boston....basically I could deal with NJ -6 here since I thought that was fair but 7.5 now?? That makes no sense....Memphis is definetly a team that can lay an egg and get blown out exactly what NJ needs. Until they do it though to someone nothng has changed its still a team that has lost to Char and Bos at home laying 7 and 8 recently?? It sseems the more desperate NJ gets the higher there lines get? Simply cause the market will still back them..
--Grizzlies are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NBA Atlantic
--Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
<LI class=more>Nets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. <LI class=more>Nets are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games. <LI class=more>Nets are 5-18-2 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Lean : Memphis +7.5 -110
Boston @ NYK
I think the NYK may have found themselves. In three of the past 4 gmes they have played like they had a clue. Curry is becoming a force and we now will be welcoming back Jared Jeffries which ultimately means Channing Frye must go...
What should this line be? First meeting @ the Garden NYK lose by 4 as small favs then they go the Fleet Center as 4 pt dogs and smoked Boston. They wont have Wally here and there lack of size with Al Jefferson in the middle could be an issue.....also Al off a career nite in hisyoung career could be FLAT here. Can he contain Curry? If he does then what about David Lee on the glass?
Celtics are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. win.
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblHeadToHead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2><LI class=morehot>Celtics are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New York. <LI class=more>Celtics are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings
past trends point to Boston here but after a big effort in NJ they needed everything to go right. Remember they started down 22-2 now they et a team IMO that could be starting to click....
Play : Knicks -2.5 (wait) & over 206 (lean)
Tor @ Miami
All I know is Bosh is OUT and Wade , Willaims , Payton are all Questionable.....probably nothing to look at with so many injuries..
Cavs @ New Orleans
With Hughes back tightening up the Defense and Gooden questionable with a groin injury there could be some scoring droughts. The Hornets have failed to crack 83 in 6 of 8 with FIVE failing to break 80...For the road Cavs they have failed to crack 88 in 5 of 8 away . The times they did Atl , Wash and NYK...Hornets still w/o the trio...
While it flies under the radar ONLY Three Cavs opponents have broken 100. Both teams rebound well and hold opps to 44 % shooting but both also shot wosre then 42% in the home / away situation...Now take away there 2 good scoring games in the past 7 and you will see then are just under 39% shooting...
So while I thought about the Under I missed 183!! Might hav eto figure out an exotic way to play it.....
The Hornets are reeling but I am not ina rush to lay chalk with Cle on the road....Cavs ahve struggled in NO losing going 3-2 with all the wins bya FG or less...I absolutely expect this to be played in the 80's.....
Trends...
OU Trends
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsVisitorOU cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>Cleveland</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
- <LI class=morehot>Under is 10-2 in Cavaliers last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games as a road favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 10-2 in Cavaliers last 12 games following a ATS win. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 Monday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 road games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. Western Conference. <LI class=more>Under is 19-7 in Cavaliers last 26 games following a S.U. win. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. <LI class=more>Under is 17-7 in Cavaliers last 24 overall.
- Under is 9-4 in Cavaliers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
<TABLE class=data id=_ctl0__ctl0_tblTrendsHomeOU cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=2>New Orleans</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell colSpan=2>
- <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 games as a home underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1 in Hornets last 8 games following a ATS loss. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1 in Hornets last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. <LI class=morehot>Under is 9-2 in Hornets last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. NBA Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 Monday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. <LI class=more>Under is 7-2 in Hornets last 9 games following a S.U. loss. <LI class=more>Under is 6-2 in Hornets last 8 overall. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2 in Hornets last 7 home games.
- Under is 39-17 in Hornets last 56 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Indiana @ Chicago
Looks like O'Neal and Stephen Jackson are out...the Pacers offense is in serious trouble then. The UNDER seems so obvious but if the Pacers employ a "small" lineup that means a faster paced game..
Basically Chi has hit a few bumps playing some higher quality teams but Indy minus a few stars isnt exactly quality...I do caution that CHI didnt appear mentally ready to play a short handed NO team so that is an issue for concern...taking Indy lightily.....
Just gonna sit tight on this game there is no reason to dive in...
Dallas @ Utah
The Jazz are 10-1 at home playing for Sloan's 1000 win and are basically a dog???????? Dallas hit a couple of bumps lately but straightened themselves out vs Denver. However the bench is thin and Stackhouse and Croshere are injured .... The Nuggets play no defense and the trio went 30-58 Howard , Dirk and Terry...the Jazz with there impress frontline are a much tougher task and worse matchup IMO...
Here is the underlying key: Jazz shoot 49 % at home against a team that allows 48%.....Dallas shoots only 45% and Utah allows 43%
Utah has to much depth and to much size.....the betting public get down on a team when they lose on the road.....I think the Dallas will have to work for there baskets here and that means an Under in the end cause 195 is just to high....
Play: Utah ML (Large)
Spurs @ LAC
Basically we know SA is bad on back end of back to backs versus quality teams...LAC qualifies as quality. They also have revenge on there minds after being embarrassed.
LAC is 9-2 at home but Maggette is questionable here..
I think the line is a little fat as they have been 2.5 or less past visits...LAC is just 1-2 but a loss was in OT....
I really think its a simple play here.....LAC has revenge , Spurs have struggles on backends and you have a line that is probably a little off...
Dont really need to get deeper then that...
Play: Clippers +3 -110 (XLarge) ML +124 (Small)
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