Monday NBA

[SportsNut]

First game:

Dallas travels to Washington ...

ABSURD LINE....

Thanks to the long win streak you get a Wiz team that is probably closer to a PK as 4 pt dogs.....absolute over adjustment here. They just played in Dallas and Wiz were catching just 5. They got smoked but mainly cause they fell to pieces in the 2nd half. lets not forget the tremendous difference bewtten Wiz at home and Wiz away.... Dallas has won and covred as road chalk @ Char -4 , @ Mem -5 , @ Port -6 ...uhhh thats the bottom of the NBA...they were chalk @ Houston and got smoked....the lowest line for Was at home as -2.5 to Det who did beat them by a few...

I cant say revenge is in effect cause Dallas has ben owning them lately...but Wiz 6-2 at home with 1 loss in OT...Also expect this to go over 205.5....

Memphis travels to NYK

This will be the game where NY gets off the home snide...they were close against Toronto who is better then Memphis. Grizz are real banged up at guard with Lowry , Eddie Jones and probably Might Mouse being out...NYK went to Memphis on opening nite and for 3 quarters laid the smack done but choked and had to survive three OT's..I think NY will play with confidence here.. The lowest line Memphis has seen on the road was recently @ LAC catching 6.5 and it wasnt close.....that is a great indicator of the strength of this team cause its basicallly saying even on a neutral court Grizz are 10 pts worse then most teams... keep knocking NYK down please.....

Now we have Golden State traveling to SA

First we have Spurs looking for revenge as they lost as 4 pt favs in GS. That fact makes SA look cheaper here...The Warriors really havent played well against SA in the past and have lost 5 straight in SA and covered once by the hook...What I really like is the UNDER......look at GS in the past they had just 1 game in the past 9 where they had broke 96 pts versus SA and they were worse IN SA. Fcator that with the fact in GS thetotal was 195 now at hoe for SA its above 200......203!! Thats an insane adjustment and we know SA plays better defense at home....

Thats to great scheduling this is just the 5th away game for DEN and only second in about the past 12 games...early on they were so-so so the jury is out after they got smoked in Denver....the past 10 bewteen these two have never seen a 200 total and only one other SA home game (or any game ) had a 200++ total...206 at home to Suns and it needed OT....

The past home game wasd the highest total points allowed by S at 98 to Kings....and they had a late comeback to get back in it...


Then we have Boston @ Chicago....NL and some injuries so I will wait before I comment...have to think Celts catch 8 ....maybe an over ...

Then MILW @ Utah

you have to be entertaining the Over but its fairly high..... the bucks are hot and right now all those points have to look tempting...anything over +7 has value IMO..... it just gets scary whenteams are covering like this on West Coast trips they always have that 1 flat game so I am being cautious.... not real interested here its sort of play the Bucks or pass...

Then Orl @ Sac

Could be a nice spot to fade Orlando if the price is right...... hopefullya 200 total so we can go under....


Then Ind @ LAL

You have to wonder Indy is feeling here.....end of a long trip with 2 losses....LA is fresh at home and I wouldhave to lean that way as LA seems to be finding its way and IND never plays well out in LA...Indy on a big over run and seem to be clicking but this seems like its to high....

 

[macdamn]

Great writeup as usual Sportsnut.

I'm glad you like the Wiz for tomorrow. Very similar situation IMO to Charlotte today, with the hot team coming in as road chalk. Give me the home dog.:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

yes , mac I agree the good thing is Wiz arent really shit ...

Side Leans -

Wizards +3.5 -102 (definite play)
NYK -2 +105
SA -8.5 -105

Total leans
Over 205.5 -117 Wiz
Under 202.5 SA


and see what else is going on......

 

[Killa]

Nut- I think our Knicks get it done tomorrow. Gut feel.

 

[Killa]

Also, to play devil's advocate on the Mavs thing. I think they go all-out tomorrow night... And then 24 hours later, the Nets game might be a "throwaway game"... Nets will be desperate for that win, and I can't see Dallas going 2-0 here... Just situationally, it seems like Tuesday night is the worse spot for them... I do agree theres some value tho

 

[SportsNut]

Looks to be my second strongest side...

 

[rookie333]

I like and am on both total plays already. Like NY 2morrow too, and I think Wash hangs here, but I like Dallas to continue their streak leaving little room for a backdoor. Last time out, Spurs lost to Warriors trying to run with them. At home, they'll know better, and slow it down

 

[SportsNut]

Also, to play devil's advocate on the Mavs thing. I think they go all-out tomorrow night... And then 24 hours later, the Nets game might be a "throwaway game"... Nets will be desperate for that win, and I can't see Dallas going 2-0 here... Just situationally, it seems like Tuesday night is the worse spot for them... I do agree theres some value tho

One thing I seem to really take into account is understanding what the line should be. There is no exact science to this but over the years its one of my strongest capping tools. Anyway today I see LINES like Portland -2.5 and Philly -2.5 and for the life of me dont understand how these games dont get hammered. The lines are so off from true value its ridiculous both should have been a Pk....what has Philly done this year??

Anyway my point is start at the basic premise of where is the value in the game Or is the line tight and will the betting create value in a side...

perfect example is Orlando tonite...game should be -2.5 or -3 but the public sentiment taking it down to 1.5 creates value in LAC...

Here a 13 game win streak allows books to adjust lines upward where the avg bettor just says Dallas is hot and they will win. Since they wil win they should do so by 4 ponts but thats such flawed thinking. Wash as we would all agree is simply a team that is completely different home and away. On the road they just traveled to Dallas and caught 5 points...take out Home court and we have Dallas being -2 ...I know I felt that line should have been about -7 cause I was on Mavs heavy that nite...so even say that neutral court they would be -4 take that into Wash and give them there 3 points for home court...you would have DAL -1...

Now you check last time they played in Wash and the line ws not all that suprsingly DAL -1.......so what has changed between these teams from that meeting?? Not much really so why the line move...?? Clearly the answer to me is the 13 game win streak...Then factor how I mentioned Dallas has been road chalk of 4 , 5 and 6 to bad teams like Char , Memp and Portland..is Washinton only -1 to -2.5 pts better then these teams?? I say no...

So the point is today my bad/ off lines were Char catching 4 should have been only 2.5 , and hawks and Wolves catching 2.5 should have been Pk....now the last game Orlando getting bet down made LAC a value play...

So the simple fact to me is anything that has Wiz at home catching 2 or better is a bad line. Sure recent games makes it tough to back a certain team but thats what makes this tough.....

I agree with your angle but I see no reason to wait for a better spot. Id Dallas loses alot of that value is taken away on Tuesday...when a team like this gets hot I look for one simple thing....teams can be playing bad but if the public will back that team it will keeps lines aftificially high when they jump ship that team will eventually become cheap soon. There was a Dallas game recently think vs Sac the line was tight (IMO) but the market strating back SAC on a tight line and made Dallas valuable. Just like tonite in LAC we saw the hom eteam roll easily......

That whole post and very little basketball / matchup talk...cause to me thats fairly obvious.....this is the stuff thats tough to figure...


Apply it to the Knicks...Ny was -3 vs Tor lost a close game and I had that game at NYK -1....now you get a worse team in Memphis coming to town and you get a softer line which could get softer. Why? Because bettors backed NYK for some reason versus Toronto . How do I know...Simply cause SI finished with about 60% on NY and the line moved slowly with the vig increasing on nY....not scientific simple logic... SO after that loss chances are pub sentiment is going to create value in NY at home......

If that game gets to -1 its a huge play for me..

hope I made some sense.....

 

[scourge]

Memphis travels to NYK

This will be the game where NY gets off the home snide..

They're totally going to end that snide Monday.....

Good picks Nut, I'm going to the Wizards game tomorrow and have already played the over myself. I figure the total should move up to 208/209 before game time. Pinny's got it at 206.5 -105 right now.

I'm watching the Knicks line, I think that could go to a PK at some point tomorrow.

 

[SportsNut]

I like and am on both total plays already. Like NY 2morrow too, and I think Wash hangs here, but I like Dallas to continue their streak leaving little room for a backdoor. Last time out, Spurs lost to Warriors trying to run with them. At home, they'll know better, and slow it down

I played the Wiz total cause its sort of obvious what direction that line is going in. The other one I will wait....cause I owuld expect the public to be interested in the over...

I would really love to get 4 or 4.5 with Washington and make a smallish ML value play....

Just saw Chi came out as -7 and I really like them as Bos is banged up...short on big bodies with Candy Man and Ratliff injured , Wally's questionable and Pierce is probable but thinking the fcat he is even listed is enough to think he will be at less then 100%

Thats about all right now...saw Kings -5 and SA should get down to -8....


GL

 

[SportsNut]

They're totally going to end that snide Monday.....

Good picks Nut, I'm going to the Wizards game tomorrow and have already played the over myself. I figure the total should move up to 208/209 before game time. Pinny's got it at 206.5 -105 right now.

Enjoy the game...should be a good one...just saw Pinny moved it 206.5 I paid the 117 for 205.5....I never thought it would get cheaper...

 

[SportsNut]

Bedtime.......

Just a heds up but been real hot in CBB...usually I dont write games cause I only make value plays on games where I think lines are off...or making a situational play...

Today had Notre Dame & Stanford as my 2 best...

Anyway past 4 days something like 48-25 in NCAA +88.16 units all posted here...done amazing well on 2nd Half plays.......

Good Luck just a heads up....there are much more knowledgable CBB guys but as I try to people I like to 'TAKE' what the betting market is giving me...and just make plays based on misperception

 

[B.A.R.]

Really like the Wizards in this spot and a solid lean towards Over.

Knicks..nice spot..kind of a hangover game for Grizzlies after Saturday's shocking ending.

GL...nice card will be on at least 2 myself

 

[KKruissel74]

Hey SportsNut....put your best bet in the NBA CTG Forum Consensus thread. Thanks!

 

[Retburj13]

:cheers:nice read Sporto....

Wiz and NY seem to be nice spots, u may be right in grabbing the Wiz value tonite cause a Mavs loss would make the Nets game not as attractive

 

[SportsNut]

Shady Total drop in Dalllas & Wash game

First order of business I bailed out on my Wizards total and vigged myself to death on a small play...not really that bad but -117 on the over and -110 on the under...Now I check back and just see 203.5 WTF is going on and who is pounding this UNDER....???? Last hour I see 206 to 203.5...Stay away from the total for awhile....figure this situation out... Wish I would have put this up quicker but not sure how many would have seen it anyway......

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

:cheers:nice read Sporto....

Wiz and NY seem to be nice spots, u may be right in grabbing the Wiz value tonite cause a Mavs loss would make the Nets game not as attractive

Thanks Ret...I do believe there is some sort of premium in the Dallas line here with a mentality of Mavs are hot they are unbeatable and so on....If they lose that prmium will disappear. Not to mention the Mavs might be a little more focused after they drop one....cause if the players themselves might start to get a little ahead of themselves....

GL

 

[SportsNut]

Really like the Wizards in this spot and a solid lean towards Over.

Knicks..nice spot..kind of a hangover game for Grizzlies after Saturday's shocking ending.

GL...nice card will be on at least 2 myself

First things first....Kevin will place my BB in .....GL

Glad we agree on Wiz , the total is dropping like someone knows something IMO... a player injury..?? Just speculating but it seems odd though I have learned that whatever you want to refer them as SHARPS , PRO BETTORS come to do there dirty wook at just around NOON everyday it seems...so thats why I bailed when I started seeing downward action at 11:30ish AM..... Had a feling it could go really south so just remember if you didnt notice around noon (say 11am-1 pm) be careful if you apppear to see any heavy moves...

The one factor that does scare me is the buzzer beating loss for Memphis...I am not sure I can guess at the mentality here for them...I guess I would hope a below average team would let a win that slipped eat at them and take away from there focus here.. I be the first to say NY as a home chalk is scary cause they are definetly playing scared at home. I just feel that a teams lines tell a story....when team are rarely favored that says them , in this case this a team who has only once been below 7 pts dogs on the road.....obviously they are playing some solid teams in there but basically what we are being told is Grizz are 5-10 pts worse then these solids teams..Now NY is below averge as a team but there is still lots of room to chew up before saying the Grizz are better then NYK (any spread below 3 says the road team is better IMO)....was hoping for a line drop but with NY there always a public bet its amazing .

GL

 

[SportsNut]

NCAAB rundown... At the moment just 3 plays....

Marshall +22 -110 (Small) This play is done...trust me!

Over 78.5 Colorado & Pepperdine 1st Half (gonna wait till half)

Citadel +8 -111(Medium) ML +305(value 1/8 the play)

Greensboro +1 -103 (Medium)
2nd Half Davidson +0.5 -113 (Small) Dont like this play much anymore...trying to hedge out

Kansas -9.5 -113 1st Half OFF for now gonna wait till half

2nd H Mid Tenn -4 -118 (Medium)
Would take the Providence over but again very shady line move on the total for a team scoring at will...but then again if Say Providence gets 76 and wins by 19 to cover the spread its only 76 -57...a 1 pt shy of 134...Do like the Friars as well...maybe a 1st Half...

Well Said that Providence Total drop was shady saw 132 at the close...know the 1st H und was 62.5 at one point but not sure where it closed (61.5 worst case). Regardless it went UNDER in the 1st Half...


GL

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Nice writeup sports! Good luck tonight.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[SportsNut]

NBA -

Wiz +3.5 -102 & ML +150
-As I said will be my best today just trying to get possible line...

NYK -2 -104 or ML -126
-Solid play here was hoping to se alot of Grizz money....ending line will decide size...

SA -8.5 +100
-Hoping for GS money to get this down some.. One daythey are -4 @ GS so -7.5 a week later at home is much more attractive...

Bulls -7.5 -103
-despite Boston road success ATS I really like Chi here. One scare factor is that Bos has injuries to Pierece (limited) and Wally (doubtful). I hate fading teams with injured stars in there 1st game w/o out them...

Bucks +7.5 -103
-Milw is on a roll and Utah looks very inconsistent past few...fade them off a freak win... caution riding MIL though on a West Coast trip where they are perfect to date ATS......

No real opinion yet on the late ones...

Totals -
203.5 Wash
- The over looked damn attractive @ 205.5 flew to 206.5 but has since dropped 3 pts....simply scared off it for awhile...

203 SA
- Playing this now I dnt see it going higher.....(5 unit play maybe more)

201 Chi
- would be on it if not for Celts injuries..(over )

200 Indy -110 (3x)
- Sort of like this with how indy is playing now just havent researched enough to feel where it should be...

GL

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Terp....GL bro!!

 

[scourge]

jeez,

whats up with that Wiz total? I don't care what the line did I'm sticking with the play for myself mainly because this happened the last time I took a Dallas over. Fuck the sharps[FONT=Verdana, Arial]
[/FONT]

 

[SportsNut]

jeez,

whats up with that Wiz total? I don't care what the line did I'm sticking with the play for myself mainly because this happened the last time I took a Dallas over. Fuck the sharps[FONT=Verdana, Arial]
[/FONT]

No fucking idea to be honest. I f I could guess maybe expecting a close game where FTs dont come into play late sort of like the Hawks game.. maybe something to do with a defensive switch DAL could have made at half last meeting to shutdown Was in the 2nd H it was like 51 vs 29 pts in that game , I think DAL defensively has allowed just team above 92 in the past 8 games... Right now I am just staying away.... I really dont care who does what I just want to know whythey are doing it.....

GL

 

[Inspekdah]

Bulls are playing great @ home this year and doing so by comfortable margins. Wallace should check Telfair when he tries to run like the little squirrel he is under the hoop... Bulls starting to click. Remember, over the last 2 seasons no team is more streaky than the Bulls. Ride them while they're winning and fade them when they're losing. I can see them putting together 9/10, 13/15 comming up. All it took was those 2 wins against the Knicks and some more time together... plus the circus crap is over. Good call there.

 

[xpression syst_m]

GL Nut, grabbed Wiz +4 -108 earlier this morning myself

 

[SportsNut]

Bulls are playing great @ home this year and doing so by comfortable margins. Wallace should check Telfair when he tries to run like the little squirrel he is under the hoop... Bulls starting to click. Remember, over the last 2 seasons no team is more streaky than the Bulls. Ride them while they're winning and fade them when they're losing. I can see them putting together 9/10, 13/15 comming up. All it took was those 2 wins against the Knicks and some more time together... plus the circus crap is over. Good call there.

I am down with the analysis as I have this fear of teams playing shorthanded...you have to like that Pierce is limited though.....gonna be tough for me to layoff Chicago....been eyeing it since I saw -7...Actually even though CHI is on an offensive rampage I think I may have to layoff the over...this could get out of hand ....104-88..???

GL bro

 

[SportsNut]

GL Nut, grabbed Wiz +4 -108 earlier this morning myself

I love these books that juice up favs...see +4.5 now @ SIA...

GL...

 

[SportsNut]

Well I am always in search of perfection and maximizing profits.......

So with that I decided anew way to post my plays. Basically its gonna be real simple screw the unit system cause I am giving myself a headache with that.....

We NOW have 4 categories..

Small (S)
Medium (M)
Large (L)
XLarge (XL)

There may be the rare occassion were I get balls and go DOUBLE XL (XXL)

For the most part nearly every single DOG I play will have some sort of ML play attached to it. However I am not a big ML person and they are there for added value so generally they are small plays...I would say on a strong ML dog I might have 1/4 of that play as a ML play on top of the ATS wager....


Alot of the reason I am doing this is cause I feel the need to better clarify for myself what the strength of my plays are. Sometimes I make plays and look back and say how did I make it such and size amount / size compared to another play.....here its just you assign it to a group and go from there....to each is his own.....

 

[SportsNut]

Play Thread

All my Plays will be listed here including all changes and halftimes....



Washington Wizards +4.5 -110 (XLarge) Win
ML see +155 (small) Win


Under 203 -110 San Antonio (Medium)


Knicks -2 -103 (gonna buy -1.5 -113 ish) (Medium) Win
NYK -1 -110 1st Half(small) Win
Grizz 2nd H -1.5 -111 (meant 1/2 small play) Loss by a 1/2 Fucking point!

Spurs -8 -110 (Medium)


Bulls -7 -108 (medium)


Bucks +7.5 -110 (small)

Magic +5.5 -110 (small) ML +183 (value 1/8 size) NO PLAY AT ALL

Over 200 -110 LAL (small)

Lakers -7 -104 (lean)

Not crazy about the late portion...... so just the 1 play for now...why force it....Lean Orl / Under and LAL/over

2nd Half Plays-
Under 101 -117 Wash (small) L

wanted a 1st Q over in Wash ...damn phone kept ringing! And it cost me double as usual... Would be an assume nite had the 2nd H moose not been loose....so far 3 plays ...2 lost by a half and the other by 2!! And I am gonna get so fucked on the Spurs total...cash your Over tickets

 

[tuck321]

Dallas 4-15-1 ou last 20 in first game of a b-b made be something the under bettors are looking at. GL

 

[Inspekdah]

Damn 4.5 is a good #. I am really limited to one book so I have to hope I can get a better # than the 3.5 I have now. All I want is 4 and I'll be on it.

 

[SportsNut]

Dallas 4-15-1 ou last 20 in first game of a b-b made be something the under bettors are looking at. GL

Interesting angle. I will say I am trying my best to not "gamble" on certain plays when things look fishy. cause I will only look back and say I knew better. There are reason to look at the UNDER but most revolve around Dallas and now Wash....being a WASH backer that is scary because can Was win a game that is NOT a shootout?? I guess so they beat ATL in a close one but obviously ATL is NOT DALLAS...Going to sit tight on that total the fact it is NOT able to creep back up is somewhat telling IMO......

GL

 

[SportsNut]

Damn 4.5 is a good #. I am really limited to one book so I have to hope I can get a better # than the 3.5 I have now. All I want is 4 and I'll be on it.

I guess the way I see it is Pinnacle gives you the fairest lines. If you are a DOG player like most of us tend to be a place like BoDog Or SIA can be so beneficial to always feeling like you will have the best line possible...Most books moved to -4. These books beeing a 1/2 higher just tell me there taking in mostly favorite money..

 

[Inspekdah]

Nut, that does mean though that the game will be tight... and the home team in a tight game you have to like catching 4.

 

[SportsNut]

Okay just about done finishing up my plays have to finish up tthe late ones

 

[The Farm]

Nut,
I like your Knicks and Kings..
GL tonight

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Farm and GL.......still havent looked at the Kings - Magic game....


Just a ehads up as I said earlier just going to keep all my plays in that one above post.........

Wizards up 20 at half feel the UNDER 101 is worth a shot now...

 

[SportsNut]

Okay the 1st Half in NY is done and were up 9 not so bad. Thats good from the standpoint I hit my 1st Half play but wish they held on to that 15 pt cushion...

Since I saw NY slipping some I will play 2nd Half Memphis -1.5 -111 ( 1/2 small play).....

 

[SportsNut]

Little disappointed with how GS and SA finished up......total wise ...dont wantto see 98 or GS 28 in the 2nd Q....just gonna ride it out and hope for the best.......

 

[SportsNut]

Think Spurs take it though it the 2nd Half...eventually GS will strat taking bad shots to try and make up points.

Really like Mid Tenn St 2nd half and after getting screwed in the 2nd H @ Greensboro by a half.....Alos think Memphis crushes Marshall 2nd H butgonna pray for a miracle Marshall cover......

 

[ontime23]

you think 2nd h goes over

 

[SportsNut]

To late to answer but I hope not...102 gave me no room to middle

 

[SportsNut]

2nd Half in Chicago:

Small plays
Bulls +2 -115

Under 100-115 Chi


Might be looking at Utah 2nd Half....Bucks seem to be fading

 

[SportsNut]

Ontime ~ The first 3 minutes of the fourth will tell the story ...

Low scoring NO and high scoring absolutely

 

[JPicks]

Looks like that the Warriors "defense" is going to screw us both. I need to start taking the other team as well when I take a Warriors under bet. Sometimes they don't even make an effort to stop the other team.

 

[SportsNut]

Writing was on the wall...2nd H line of 102 was about a 1.5 to high and all the momentum going into the half showed despite losing GS would control tempo.....MFers!

 

[SportsNut]

2nd H Jazz PK -112 (medium) to wash out my original play and a little extra


Also Kansas -9.5 +104 (small) 2ndHalf

 

[SportsNut]

Think Spurs take it though it the 2nd Half...eventually GS will strat taking bad shots to try and make up points.

Really like Mid Tenn St 2nd half and after getting screwed in the 2nd H @ Greensboro by a half.....Alos think Memphis crushes Marshall 2nd H butgonna pray for a miracle Marshall cover......

Guess Marshall backers prayers were answered cause I think Marshall hit three 3's finally 75 secs for the backdoor

 

[SportsNut]

These last second moves are just fucking pissing me off.....I sware someone has the final scores...fucking Davidson steamed late.... They win , Over GS steamed late its an over , Mavs total steamed learlier today goes Under and hits 203 no less , Knicks appeared to get steamed....

This is what frustrates the shit out of me.....I could spend hours on a game and I see 1 stupid fucking move late and I basically know if I won or lost before the game is played.......