Havent had much time of late and it might be like that for awhile. Felt like absolute crap yesterday after a long nite out in the city @ Crobar on Sat. My old ass just cant hang anymore I guess. With 2 huge plays on Da Bears {8units} and Colts {20units bewteen ML & spread} , I felt no need to even attempt to cap basketball. Okay I lied...most of the afternoon was a struggle to keep my eyes open so I couldnt even if I wanted to. I took the time to catch up with my Jan record and sort of look at my month to date ...reread my old threads and such and do some silly math...I should start a spreadsheet I guess. Anyway I have noticed that I had some huge days which were great but also since the Death of Pinnacle my 1st half and 2nd Half plays have been HORRIBLE. Alot of it seems to be West Coast 2nd H plays but as someone who absolutely had a great handle on Half plays for 2 months I was shocked...the majority of it though is the past 10 days....so terrible -110 vig on everything is only making the matter worse. Saturday was one of the least capped days I can recall and managed to go 11-2 on sides & totals ...0-2 on Half plays plus 8-2 posted (4-0 unposted / late posted games on top of that)...
Funny how it works sometimes. My point is College King Rex in one of his recent CBB threads made an excellent point of how the most respected cappers in his office are around 50% then go on big runs 10-2 , 11-1 and so on you get the picture. That is the simple key to longterm success. Always do your best to hover around flat and when you get hot that streak will be profit rather then digging you out of hole. Dont put yourself in a hole. Like the guy who is down 3K on Sat or Sunday and scarambles to make it up or worse get deeper on his last day of the week whether its SUnday or Monday for some. Thats my gambling advice for longterm success. Naturally there is alot more to it and on the daily side. It all boils down to decisions....Good decisions are rewarded and Bad decisions generally are punished. We cant always make the right decision but keeping your mind clear and able is very important. I often torture myself for my decision making and inability at times to trust myself. Well as we approach the midseason point I hope everyone has a handle on the NBA at this point. Usually at this point in any sport my writeups become shorter and I rely simply on what I have learned. The lines generally are tight so my plays tend to shrink and I go with logic more so then handicapping.
Since the New Year 1/1/07{all posted obviously} :
Sides & Totals 86-59{59.3%} +98.88units
1st Quarters -13.42 units
1st Half -28.80 units {-23.25 since Pinny closed}
2nd Half -24.98 units {-14.45 since Pinny closed}
Team totals +0.25 units
So its a tale of two season in a sense. Clearly I will be much more cautious from now on with Half plays but I take comfort in knowing I took in alot more then those losses in Nov & Dec...
Lets start with the early games:
> I had the Pacers game @ Pickem so not crazy about either side. You would think I see value in Chitown but losing 15 of 16 at Conseco and being 6-12 on the road certainly doesnt have me rushing to back them. Further blemishing Chi was Gordon and Nocioni looking like they are hurting pretty bad but will gut it out. I like the new look Pacers with Granger getting more time so I will say I lean towards that way. What I do like is the Under 192.5 here with Chi 2 key players hurting and them being inconsistent on offense. They only avg about 91 pts in losses. Indy is 36-16-1 UNDER versus the Central Division. You know off 4straight(tough)losses they will be emphasis on thsi game especially with the new players and Bulls winning first 2 meetings. Played some Indy -1 already but not sure what to do with it....
> The game in Toronto is giving me trouble. Hard to like Toronto laying so many points bu I just expect Charlotte to eventually lay an egg on teh road with so many key injuries. The total I think is about where it should be had 192 for this matchup....if Tor covers I like the under but in a close game I like the over....so until what side I decided I like which is Charlotte at the moment I dont have any insight on this game....Upon second glance I lean Under for the fact Char shot 64% last game and that still saw on 190 points...Wallace back means better defense along with Okefor playing well again...Bobcats 6-2-1 ATS last 9 away...
> With Coach brown talking about there lack of defense and playing the West Coast style Ilook for a return to that Cavs style ball tonite. This comments lead me to believe the players agree that they got away from what made them successful before going out West....
"In the second half, it was like night and day," said James, who finished with 32 points, seven rebounds, five assists and four steals. "We just dug down and did what we've been doing. Before the three-game losing streak, that's what we were doing. We were getting stops, and we found a way to win."
Odd schedule for both Orlando went West came home for one and started traveling again. With Cle they are returning from there 7 game trip. Personally I lean towards Cle here in a home dominanted series. I think this line is sort of low and expected 5.5 or 6. The one thing keeping me off Orl is I liked how they played in NJ. Howard probably will have a tough time again tonite. Dooling and Hill's status is listed as questionable at the moment. So going 1st H under here...91.5
> In Boston tough to not like SA. They have owned the Celtics in the Pierce years and Paul isnt around. They have crushed bad teamson the road laying big chalk. I have seen some improvement in Boston though past few games since West returned. I do really like SA here especially in the 1st H but remain cautious. I do think the 1st H over 91.5 is attractive. SA offense should be clicking and as I said Boston offense playing better...Expect SA 50 but Unsure if Boston cracks 41..I do think 40 is the low end so on that its near impossible for me to not play the over if I can put it at 90 pts worse case.....
> The Wade injury and his playing status have me off this game for now. I had this at -5.5 with Wade and I cant even take NYK that cheap. You just never know if this team can seal the deal ...two consecutive losses at the buzzer and then they nearly blow an 8 pt lead in 75 seconds...thankfully Granger missed his last moment three!! Rothsteins rotation is confusing at the moment bu he now has a bench. Walker is playing much better and possibly good enough to make up for Wades absence. However Wade played 44 minutes yesterday I dont see why he wouldnt play here.....Whats really troubling is Miami playing th in 5 days and you never know how thats changes Jason Willaims status withhis knee issues. I have to like an Under 195.6 here though especially if Wade is OUT.
Will back with some plays and the late games 9PM EST and after...GL
Funny how it works sometimes. My point is College King Rex in one of his recent CBB threads made an excellent point of how the most respected cappers in his office are around 50% then go on big runs 10-2 , 11-1 and so on you get the picture. That is the simple key to longterm success. Always do your best to hover around flat and when you get hot that streak will be profit rather then digging you out of hole. Dont put yourself in a hole. Like the guy who is down 3K on Sat or Sunday and scarambles to make it up or worse get deeper on his last day of the week whether its SUnday or Monday for some. Thats my gambling advice for longterm success. Naturally there is alot more to it and on the daily side. It all boils down to decisions....Good decisions are rewarded and Bad decisions generally are punished. We cant always make the right decision but keeping your mind clear and able is very important. I often torture myself for my decision making and inability at times to trust myself. Well as we approach the midseason point I hope everyone has a handle on the NBA at this point. Usually at this point in any sport my writeups become shorter and I rely simply on what I have learned. The lines generally are tight so my plays tend to shrink and I go with logic more so then handicapping.
Since the New Year 1/1/07{all posted obviously} :
Sides & Totals 86-59{59.3%} +98.88units
1st Quarters -13.42 units
1st Half -28.80 units {-23.25 since Pinny closed}
2nd Half -24.98 units {-14.45 since Pinny closed}
Team totals +0.25 units
So its a tale of two season in a sense. Clearly I will be much more cautious from now on with Half plays but I take comfort in knowing I took in alot more then those losses in Nov & Dec...
Lets start with the early games:
> I had the Pacers game @ Pickem so not crazy about either side. You would think I see value in Chitown but losing 15 of 16 at Conseco and being 6-12 on the road certainly doesnt have me rushing to back them. Further blemishing Chi was Gordon and Nocioni looking like they are hurting pretty bad but will gut it out. I like the new look Pacers with Granger getting more time so I will say I lean towards that way. What I do like is the Under 192.5 here with Chi 2 key players hurting and them being inconsistent on offense. They only avg about 91 pts in losses. Indy is 36-16-1 UNDER versus the Central Division. You know off 4straight(tough)losses they will be emphasis on thsi game especially with the new players and Bulls winning first 2 meetings. Played some Indy -1 already but not sure what to do with it....
> The game in Toronto is giving me trouble. Hard to like Toronto laying so many points bu I just expect Charlotte to eventually lay an egg on teh road with so many key injuries. The total I think is about where it should be had 192 for this matchup....if Tor covers I like the under but in a close game I like the over....so until what side I decided I like which is Charlotte at the moment I dont have any insight on this game....Upon second glance I lean Under for the fact Char shot 64% last game and that still saw on 190 points...Wallace back means better defense along with Okefor playing well again...Bobcats 6-2-1 ATS last 9 away...
> With Coach brown talking about there lack of defense and playing the West Coast style Ilook for a return to that Cavs style ball tonite. This comments lead me to believe the players agree that they got away from what made them successful before going out West....
"In the second half, it was like night and day," said James, who finished with 32 points, seven rebounds, five assists and four steals. "We just dug down and did what we've been doing. Before the three-game losing streak, that's what we were doing. We were getting stops, and we found a way to win."
Odd schedule for both Orlando went West came home for one and started traveling again. With Cle they are returning from there 7 game trip. Personally I lean towards Cle here in a home dominanted series. I think this line is sort of low and expected 5.5 or 6. The one thing keeping me off Orl is I liked how they played in NJ. Howard probably will have a tough time again tonite. Dooling and Hill's status is listed as questionable at the moment. So going 1st H under here...91.5
> In Boston tough to not like SA. They have owned the Celtics in the Pierce years and Paul isnt around. They have crushed bad teamson the road laying big chalk. I have seen some improvement in Boston though past few games since West returned. I do really like SA here especially in the 1st H but remain cautious. I do think the 1st H over 91.5 is attractive. SA offense should be clicking and as I said Boston offense playing better...Expect SA 50 but Unsure if Boston cracks 41..I do think 40 is the low end so on that its near impossible for me to not play the over if I can put it at 90 pts worse case.....
> The Wade injury and his playing status have me off this game for now. I had this at -5.5 with Wade and I cant even take NYK that cheap. You just never know if this team can seal the deal ...two consecutive losses at the buzzer and then they nearly blow an 8 pt lead in 75 seconds...thankfully Granger missed his last moment three!! Rothsteins rotation is confusing at the moment bu he now has a bench. Walker is playing much better and possibly good enough to make up for Wades absence. However Wade played 44 minutes yesterday I dont see why he wouldnt play here.....Whats really troubling is Miami playing th in 5 days and you never know how thats changes Jason Willaims status withhis knee issues. I have to like an Under 195.6 here though especially if Wade is OUT.
Will back with some plays and the late games 9PM EST and after...GL
