Monday Lines/Discussion

[buckeyeburritos]

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Mon 5/11

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 5/11</td><td>951</td><td>Atlanta Braves
D. Lowe</td><td>+1.5 -126</td><td>+183</td><td>OVER 7 -119</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>952</td><td>New York Mets
JO. Santana</td><td>-1.5 +116</td><td>-196</td><td>UNDER 7 +109</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 5/11</td><td>953</td><td>Cincinnati Reds
B. Arroyo</td><td>+1.5 -177</td><td>+112</td><td>OVER 9.5 -111</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>06:40 PM</td><td>954</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
J. Garland</td><td>-1.5 +167</td><td>-120</td><td>UNDER 9.5 +101</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 5/11</td><td>955</td><td>Washington Nationals
D. Cabrera</td><td>+1.5 -164</td><td>+131</td><td>OVER 8.5 -110</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:15 PM</td><td>956</td><td>San Francisco Giants
R. Johnson</td><td>-1.5 +154</td><td>-139</td><td>UNDER 8.5 +100</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 5/11</td><td>957</td><td>Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd</td><td>+1.5 -163</td><td>+118</td><td>OVER 10.5 +105</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>958</td><td>Cleveland Indians
C. Pavano</td><td>-1.5 +153</td><td>-126</td><td>UNDER 10.5 -115</td></tr></tbody></table>

:cheers:

 

[D-Woww]

braves under, giants over, white sox

 

[SportsNut]

Braves over but good spot to play ATL ML or Mets -1.5 RL at + money. Every game for Johan has been a 1 run decision so far ....think ATL getting healthy as well is key but wouldlike to see some ast history stats....

SF ML to under only because it seems from memory that WASH is struggling vs LH some..wolf and davis recemtly come to mind..

two struggling teams in CLE would prefer the Tribe after they rallied in the 9th with Pavano throwing the Yanks the big F U !

Reds playing well but Arroyo was terrible last time and Garland has been solid ...tough game the Reds might be a tad flat after this STL series especially how it ended today ...:cheers:

 

[SteelBucsFan]

thank god the pirates have the day off...

 

[tuck321]

Arizona ml kiss play

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Santana starts have paid out on the Under for 7 straight, Mets giving him an average of 2.0 runs/game support.

Lowe starts have paid out on the Over 5 of the last 6, Braves giving him an average of 6.17 runs/game support.

 

[buckeyeburritos]

i think i may be sitting tomorrow out

 

[tuck321]

Not an easy day so going with 1. Think if I was to play more it would be Washington. Last year at night Cabrera was 7-6. Last 10 Washington is 5-5. He is not that bad and Randy could go at any time. But its a 1 play night for me.

 

[HUNT]

shit card imo.

 

[SportsNut]

Not an easy day so going with 1. Think if I was to play more it would be Washington. Last year at night Cabrera was 7-6. Last 10 Washington is 5-5. He is not that bad and Randy could go at any time. But its a 1 play night for me.

Nats pen worry you at all ? Since they are playing better seems like the pen has really been worked alot ...although huge win for SFG today in extras . Cant say its revenge but Nats did lose all 7 vs SFG last season . I can see WASH here but the fact they have not hit much vs LH away is scary Davis , Wolf , Kershaw , Johan , Hamels ..think the only guy the hit was Ball 4 Perez sometimes called Oliver . Though it doesnt seem like the betting world believes in WASH at all ....

Under could be interesting as UNIT has shutdown the Backs and Rocks last 2 at home and even his 1st start vs Milw only Gallarado fucked him with a 3 run jack ....5 hits 2 walks , 16ks in last 14 inn at home /..

When was the last time Cabrera's team won a start of his ? Was Noah around ..?? Also Cabrera 5 for 5 in OVERS( and a PUSH) ..get this LYR Cabrera wins 9 of his 1st 10 starts this year he lost his 1st SIX and is 6-20 L26 starts since those 1st 10 starts of 2008 .....talk about moneymaker .......

probably no way I entertain SF now though just seems like a great op for Cabrera to actually get his team a WIN. Sandoval had a rough day and LADS en was more Putrid then anything else...

hopefully we see a 9 on the total would be comfortable with that under:cheers:

 

[CapTwo]

Not really interested in much. Will have one play maybe two.

Maybe will take a shot with lowe +1.5 as many of santana's wins have been by one run.
Mets flying high off a sweep, but it was against shittsburgh, so maybe a good spot for them to come in and steal one or at least play em close.

Zona interests me a bit as well, but i hate betting games involving arroyo as he is so damn inconsistent. Hes coming off one of his gas can outings, and was trying to look for a pattern, and noticed he tends to follow up a shitty outing with a really good one.

8 hits 2 walks 5 ER's - bad outing, against the muts.... he follows it with
4 hits 0 walks 1 ER-- good outing, against screwers

9 hits 3 walks 9 ER's- bad outing, against hotlanta... he follows it with
4 hits 3 walks 0 ER's- good outing, against pitt (who, fwiw, is obviously in a hitting drought)

so following the pattern, hes due for a good outing tomorrow.

Garland has continued to pitch and better and better for his new team, and is throwing the ball well right now. Think we can expect a good outing from him, cincy has to travel to zona after a tough extra innings loss today that ended up being a pretty long game. Not sure if theyll bring the bats tomorrow..

 

[SportsNut]

Johan Santana (R) Previous Starts vs. Atlanta

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/13/08</TD><TD class=datacell>ATL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-224/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>114 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.3 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.70</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/22/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ ATL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-121/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>12</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>90 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/06/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ ATL</TD><TD class=datacell>1-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-154/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>91 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/14/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) ATL</TD><TD class=datacell>3-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-182/7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>109 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/12/02</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) ATL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-3</TD><TD class=datacell>105/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>4.2</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>107 </TD><TD class=datacell>22.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.67</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Derek Lowe (R) Previous Starts vs. NY Mets

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/19/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(LA) NYM</TD><TD class=datacell>9-13</TD><TD class=datacell>-132/8</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>10</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>8 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>81 </TD><TD class=datacell>27.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>3.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>10/04/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(LA) @ NYM</TD><TD class=datacell>5-6</TD><TD class=datacell>125/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.1</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>94 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>06/06/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(LA) NYM</TD><TD class=datacell>8-5</TD><TD class=datacell>131/7</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>109 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.50

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In its proper context ATL did kinda hit Johan fairly decent last season and ATL did go 3-0 when he started ...21 inn 28 hits just 8 Ks ...and Lowe is a wreck vs the MUTTS.....

Bravos to Over in focus..??

 

[SportsNut]

Cap all his wins were by 1 run and both his losses as well ....

1-0 wins twice , won & lost 2-1 and won & lost 4-3


plus the Cincy clubhouse dealing with the FLU this weekend and flying usually never is fun with that in mind

 

[SportsNut]

both NYM and ATL usually have the MONDAY blues though

 

[CapTwo]

Cap all his wins were by 1 run and both his losses as well ....

1-0 wins twice , won & lost 2-1 and won & lost 4-3


plus the Cincy clubhouse dealing with the FLU this weekend and flying usually never is fun with that in mind

:shake:

Also noticed that arroyo is not good on 4 days Rest.

Reds are 1-5 in Arroyos last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.

 

[SportsNut]

ATL 7-13 L20 monday games and dropped 8 straight . on the road 8-12 L20 mondays , dropped 4 straight and 8 of 11 in that situation

get this though 10-0-1 UNDER L11 Monday away dating back to late 2007 ..

NYM 10-10 L20 mondays at home , 7-1-1 over last 8 , and 2-7 L9 mondays at home..though NYM is 3-1 on mondays so far but just 7-13 L20 anywhere..

 

[SportsNut]

:shake:

Also noticed that arroyo is not good on 4 days Rest.

Reds are 1-5 in Arroyos last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.

he always had weird trends year to year it seems ...weird because its not like he pitches good onextra rest from what I recall.....he has wonall 3 away starts to date so good sot to drop one maybe
:cheers:

 

[cubsker]

Giants -137 for this guy. Randy good at home so far, Cabrera is a gas can, I don't mind the Giant bats at home vs. RHP. I like fading the Nats against a lefty, b/c it neutralizes Dunn who is 0-9 with 6 ks vs. Randy. The other thing I like is the Nats terrible OF defense in this park.

 

[cubsker]

will look for an under ump in the desert as well.

 

[tuck321]

Not planing on playing them Just know they score more runs at night than Frisco and are winning by playing hard. Since they have been getting rewarded by getting wins would expect the hard work to continue.
Randy was always happy in Arizona. Think the move will be tough for him.

 

[SportsNut]

the interesting thing is Cain vs Zimmerman the next day and Martis vs Zito after that ....hard to see any clear edges in the series but this game but be the weakest for SFG on paper ....for me best to pass see both sides as fair ....

 

[cubsker]

giants 10-4 at home
nats 5-12 on the road

plus I get one of the GOATs on the hill. -137 seems really cheap to me.

 

[jimbo1227]

i like the over in san fran but i also lean slightly to the home team. think the over at metville will be good because i think met guys get down and dirty again. met ml and rl for me. ever so slight lean to under in AZ but i had the under in arroyo's last start and that is surely enough to keep me far away from this mother fucker. like the under in the AL game and maybe cle??

 

[cubsker]

i kinda like the white sux just cause this seems 50/50 so I lean doggy. Guess Pavano has been better of late. Need to look at their peripherals.

 

[tuck321]

In BC's write up he mentions that the best thing for the team that has been shut out is just to get away from the team that did it. Not sure at all myself but possible big bounce for Cleveland.