Monday Discussion

[E.T.G.]

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>Not expecting anyone to participate this early on a Sunday, just getting the early lines out there for everyone.


MLB Baseball - Mon 6/25
</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Run Line</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Runs</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>951</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Washington Nationals
J. Bergmann</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -130 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+177 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8.5 +106 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>952</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Atlanta Braves
T. Hudson <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +120 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-185 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8.5 -116 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>953</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>St Louis Cardinals
M. Maroth</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -141 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+152 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 -121 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>954</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Mets
J. Sosa <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +131 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-160 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 +111 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>955</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Colorado Rockies
J. Francis</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>956</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-111 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>957</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Houston Astros
J. Jennings</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -135 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+172 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8 -115 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>958</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Milwaukee Brewers
B. Sheets <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-180 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8 +105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>959</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Dodgers
B. Penny</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +130 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-134 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8.5 +101 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 06:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>960</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Arizona D-Backs
M. Owings <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+126 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8.5 -111 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>961</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Diego Padres
J. Germano</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -206 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8.5 -104 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:15 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>962</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Francisco Giants
T. Lincecum <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +186 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-113 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8.5 -106 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>963</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Oakland Athletics
C. Gaudin</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -165 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9.5 -104 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>964</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Indians
C. Lee <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +155 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-133 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9.5 -106 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>965</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Texas Rangers
K. Loe</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+192 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10 +101 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>966</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Detroit Tigers
J. Bonderman <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-210 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10 -111 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>967</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago White Sox
J. Danks</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -168 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+118 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9.5 -116 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>968</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Howell <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +158 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-126 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9.5 +106 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>969</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +116 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 8.5 -111 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>970</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Twins
K. Slowey <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -126 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+132 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 8.5 +101 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>971</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Boston Red Sox
J. Tavarez</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 +131 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-123 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 10 -113 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>972</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Mariners
JEF. Weaver <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 -141 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+115 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 10 +103 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Mon 6/25</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>973</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Kansas City Royals
J. Thomson</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +1.5 +117 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+280 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 9 +106 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>974</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>LAA Angels
J. Lackey <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -1.5 -127 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-310 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 9 -116 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Dmoney416]

Boston/Seattle over 10 - Almost will be a definite play for me. Weaver will have to do better than one fluke shutout against an NL to prove to me that he is back.

KC Royals +280 - Not sure if I will play this, but I really don't believe that a MLB team should be -300 in any situation (at least not in the current MLB).

Colorado at +103 and Oakland at +125 might be worth a look as well.

 

[Troutman]

Holliday is cheap isnt he.

 

[E.T.G.]

Some quick thoughts, I am going through some numbers right now..

Renew - Your boy is pitching 2morrow. The bad part is that its vs. Penny who is 6-2 w/ 1.88 in 13games vs. the Baby backs. Also he is 1-0 w/ 0.69era in 13ip and has allowed 1er in 2 starts this yr.. If Owings can keep the Dodgers under control then the under at 8.5 looks decent. Otherwise its pretty tough not to lean to LAD.

Maroth will be making his first start this yr in the NL and for a new team. Interesting situation here since this will be his first start since the trade and he went from basically the AL Central leader to the NL Central 3-4th place.. I'm not in his head but there has to be some feelings of disappointment. Now Maroth on the yr is 5-2 w/ 5.06era, 13g, 78.1ip, 97h, 33bb, 28k. Detroit averaged 6.46runs/game when he started. Logically the Cards are not going to support him the way the Tigers did, they just can't.

 

[E.T.G.]

Getting an early start on the games for Monday. There were 7 teams going for sweeps on Sunday..Mets, Cubs, Jays, Angels all swept. Brewers lost in extras and the Rangers and Tigers have yet to play. Some of the numbers are not updated like the hitting because they do not include the games on Sunday however all of the starting pitching numbers are correct.

Red Sox -121 / Mariners +111:

Sox are 25-14 on the road this yr, Mariners are 21-15 at home. Sox are 12-10 in the month of June, Mariners are 13-9 in June..

Tavarez last start = W, 7ip, 3h, 0er, 1bb, 4k @ ATL
Tavarez last 3 = 2-0 (3-0),2.25era, 20ip, 15h, 4bb, 12k, .247obp, .95whip
Tavarez Away= 3-2, 4.29era, 9g, 50.1ip, 46h, 19bb, 36k, .311obp, 1.29whip
Tavarez last 7 = 4-0, 3.65era and has not allowed more than 4er in L9.
**Sox are 8-5 when Tavarez starts.

Weaver last start = W, 9ip, 4h, 0er, 2bb, 5k vs. Pitt
Weaver last 3 = 1-0, 1.89era, 19ip, 16h, 3bb, 10k, .252obp, 1.00whip
Weaver Home = 1-2, 7.63era, 15.1ip, 21h, 4bb, 8k, .362obp, 1.63whip
Weaver Career = 3-5, 6.75era, 12g, 74.2ip, 89h, 56er, 32bb, 46k
Weaver This Yr = 1g, 2ip, 7h, 7er, 2bb, 1k
***Mariners are 2-7 when Weaver starts.
***Sox vs. Weaver = Crisp (.400 in 5ab), Drew (.250 in 12ab), Lowell (.300 in 10ab), Lugo (.333 in 12ab), Ortiz (.304 in 23ab), Manny (.304 in 23ab), Varitek (.421 in 19ab)

Weaver Last 6 starts:
---4/28 vs. Royals: L, .1ip, 7h, 6er, 1bb, 0k
---5/5 @ NYY: L, 5.2ip, 9h, 6er, 3bb, 3k
---5/10 @Det: L, 5ip, 10h, 6er, 0bb, 2k
---6/9 @ SD: ND, 4ip, 2h, 1er, 0bb, 3k
---6/14 @CHC: ND, 6ip, 10h, 3er, 1bb, 2k
---6/20 vs. Pitt: W, 9ip, 4h, 0er, 2bb, 5k

Sox vs. RHP: .268overall, .264away, .255 L10
Mariner vs. RHP: .280overall, .287home, .243 L10

Sox Bullpen: 2.79era overall, .78era L3
Mariner Bullpen: 3.17era overall, 7.82era L3

Other Notes: What are we suppose to think of Weaver? I know what I think and I think he is going to have a lot of trouble w/ the Sox who welcome back the DH to their lineup. He has not done well vs. good offenses (Bos, Minn, NYY, Det, and CHC who got 10 hits off him but only 3er) this yr and this is a cheap price to fade him vs a team he historically has trouble with. Mariners started the Month of June 9-2 but are just 4-7 in their L10 in the month. Tavarez has pitched vs. the Mariners in his career but has never started vs. them. He has however started 9 games on the road this season.


Cards +147 / Mets -157 ....O 9 -120 / U 9 +100:

Maroth will be making his first start this yr in the NL and for a new team. Interesting situation here since this will be his first start since the trade and he went from basically the AL Central leader to the NL Central 3-4th place.. I'm not in his head but there has to be some feelings of disappointment. Now Maroth on the yr is 5-2 w/ 5.06era, 13g, 78.1ip, 97h, 33bb, 28k. Detroit averaged 6.46runs/game when he started. Logically the Cards are not going to support him the way the Tigers did, they just can't. Mets moved to 21-18 at home after Sundays games and the Cards are 16-20 on the road. Mets are 2-8 in their L10 vs. LHP and are 7-14 in the month of June. Cards are 11-10 in the month of June. The series this yr is 3-0 Mets.

Maroth L3 games = 2-0, 4.24era, 17ip, 23h, 9bb, 8k
Maroth Away = 5-0, 5.32era, 8g, 44ip, 59h, 19bb, 16k
*Of his 13 starts this yr, he has given up 4er or more in 7 of them.

Sosa L3 games = 1-2, 5.82era, 17ip, 20h, 5bb, 7k, 1.47whip, .333obp
Sosa Home = 3-1, 3.42era, 23.2ip, 18h, 9bb, 14k, .1.14whip, .273obp
*Sosa last 2 starts = 0-2, 16h, 11er, 3bb, 2k

Cards vs. RHP: .269overall, .268 away, .304 L10
Mets vs. LHP: .302overall, .293 home, .235 L10

Cards Bullpen: 3.02overall, 2.92 L3
Mets Bullpen: 3.72overall, 3.22 L3

Other Notes: Mets have had a very rough June but rebounded w/ a sweep of the A's. Have they turned the corner? I don't know but this is an important series to keep the ball rolling. Tuesday they will face Wellemyer, another pitcher they should be able to get to. Maroth making the transition to a new team will be very interesting to watch. The overall division is weak so he might have some success but the Mets lineup is not.. Sosa has been terrible the last 2 games but has pitched pretty good at home. The over looks strong as well since both of these pitchers have been gotten to lately. Mets have had some struggles vs. LHP during their slump in June but this will be the 3rd LHP they see in 4days and on the yr they have hit them better.


Dodgers -130 / DBacks +120....O 8.5 -105 / U 8.5 -115:

Dodgers continue their road trip with a trip to Arizona. So far they are are 3-3, winning the series vs. the Jays and losing the series to the Rays. DBacks just took out the Orioles and the Rays for two straight series wins at home but they did drop the first game in each series. These two teams have met up 5times this yr, LAD lead series 4-1 and took both games in Zona. Dodgers on the road are 20-19 and the DBacks are 24-16 at home.

Penny L3: 2-0, 1.25era, 21.2ip, 18h, 1bb, 19k, .238obp, .88whip
Penny Away: 5-1, 2.98era, 45.1ip, 47h, 10bb, 32k, .314obp, 1.26whip
Penny This yr vs. DBacks: 1-0, 0.69era, 2g, 13ip, 8h, 1er, 7bb, 6k
Penny Career: 6-2, 1.88era, 13g, 81.1ip, 67h, 17er, 19bb, 58k
**Dodgers are 13-2 when Penny pitches.
**DBacks vs. Penny = Byrnes (.357 in 14), Drew (.143 in 7), Hudson (.273 in 11), Jackson (.400 in 10), Quentin (.714 in 7), Tracy (.278 in 8)

Owings L3: 1-0, 4.58era, 17.2ip, 21h, 5bb, 11k, .346obp, 1.47whip
Owings home: 3-1, 3.48era, 44ip, 45h, 14bb, 34k, .330obp, 1.34whip
Owings vs. LAD this yr: 4ip, 4h, 3er, 2bb, 3k
**DBacks are 7-4 when Owings starts.
**Owings has only given up 5HR this yr, all have come at home.

LAD vs RHP: .260overall, .258away, .296 L10
DBacks vs. RHP: .257overall, .258home, .270 L10

LAD bullpen: 3.43era overall, 2.05era L3
DBacks bullpen: 2.74era overall, 1.59era L3

Other Notes: DBacks did win 2/3 from Penny last yr and some of their batters have some pretty nice numers vs him. He has however been solid this yr minus the start @ LAA. Penny has 12 starts of 2er of less this season. For an under I wish I could see Owings worked a little longer into games but that will come with time, kid is only a rookie. Prior to last start vs. TB, 9 of Owings 10 starts were for 3er or less. Owings lasted only 4innings in his only start vs. LAD this yr but gave up 4h-3er..

Doing Rockies-Cubs, WSox-Drays, BJ-Twins. Will think about Nationals-Braves (under)...maybe few more, who knows.

 

[E.T.G.]

Time to go watch some entourage but some very interesting line movements..

Mets from -157 to -168
Rockies from +101 to -111
Jays from -140 to -134
RSox from -120 to -125
Dodgers from -132 to -127

 

[reNew Orleans]

damn, people jumping all over jeff francis

 

[E.T.G.]

Guzman for the Nationals will be heading the DL, he was batting .329 w/ 31 runs scored from the leadoff position so expect the offense to take a step back as Lopez moves over the short and Belliard to 2nd.

 

[E.T.G.]

Does anyone have any information about Bergmann for the Nationals. This will be his first start back from elbow inflamation, funny cause his last start before going on the DL was vs. the Braves; 8ip-2h-1er-1bb-10k. His other start vs. ATL was 6ip-1h-0er-4bb-8k...Given Hudson's success vs. Nats, the loss of Guzman, and the Braves inability to hit anyone, I like the Under here.

Is he going to be on a pitch count? How did his rehab start(s) go?

 

[reNew Orleans]

Jason Bermann (elbow) threw 31 pitches during a rehab start with Triple-A Columbus on Friday.
Bergmann pitched three innings, giving up two hits and no walks. He will continue to increase his pitch count during his next couple starts. He could return to the major league rotation before the end of June.

That was June 15th (Friday)

They pushed it up to 50 the following start so I don't think he'll go any longer than 6 innings

 

[E.T.G.]

damn. I like Bergmann but I don't know if I want to mess with any pitch counts, thanks

 

[E.T.G.]

already a thread about the WSox-RSox trade.

 

[Houghton Chemical]

I think Minnesota could be a good play. I've been all about Slowey since he started at the beginning of the month. I've backed him twice and haven't been disappointed yet. The kid is going to be great. I think this could be a major letdown spot for Toronto, even though Halladay is pitching

 

[reNew Orleans]

this is looking like a pretty ugly card. primarily looking for attractive dogs.

WAS
SD
OAK

Then Favs:

TB
COL

Totals:
-given the conditions are right and umpire

WAS/ATL Under 8.5
OAK/CLE Under 9.5
LAD/ARZ Under 8.5

not going to look into these until tomorrow though. peace

 

[E.T.G.]

Guys...I would suggest any1 who backs the Astros to back them on the 5inning line or not at all. How the hell can you give up 4er in the 8th and 2 in the 9th after your offense got the lead back for you..


funny, I bet I don't listen to my own advice in a week

 

[E.T.G.]

Guys there is 1 bet I have to make tonight, I can't talk myself outa it and if this Smile! beats me I just have to shake my head and place him next to Kameron Loe, Todd Wellemyer, and Jamey Wright as shit pitchers who took my money.

Reds Sox -1 $113 to Win $115

 

[Houghton Chemical]

Solid bet IMO, I'm already on the ML for 1 unit.

 

[El Mago]

hey chemical
ha;;aday carrer agaisnt minnisoat
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Career vs. MIN</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>57.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>42</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>41</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.20</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.87</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.202</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

plusthey might be minus mornuea... this is is to me a halladay to me all the way

 

[E.T.G.]

they are 100% w/ out Mornuea, he is still in Florida. That is a real interesting price to get Hallday at too, I must admit, very tempting.

 

[slim5150]

well, I have certainly not been lighting it one fire these last few days. Think I am perceiving value where there actually is none, and taking a shot on a long dog. And I didn't lose by a little with some of them. The plays I loved actually did quite well over the recent skid, so I think I will get back to that.

I will try to give some brief thoughts that are not very stat heavy, that ain't my style.

Wash/Atl : Bergman fresh off the DL. Before he went on, he was pitching very good, just got no support of help from the pen. Atlanta has done zero scoring lately, so I am inclined to lean under. Will wait and see what the o/u is for the first 5 in this game since Bergman should be on a pitch count.

Oak/ CLe: I was on 2 of the three games for Oak in their recent trip to the Mets. We all know how that worked out. CC should get the win tomorrow, as Gaudin doesn't have very good numbers careerwise vs Cleveland, and in his one game against them already he has given up 8 hits, 5 runs 4er, in 4.2 innings pitched. Not the type of numbers I want to try and bet with with a lineup that can score in bunches. I am hoping Cleveland gets the win on Monday and I can get a good price on Haren on tuesday.

Cards/ Mets: Didn't like Maroth in Detroit, will see how he pans out for my boys. He could have a good time ala Jeff Weaver in St. Louis, but I am not going to be backing him today. Mets swept the A's, so maybe their woes are behind them. Sosa has had a good year at home, but I am not sure I want to put any money on them yet. Cards are a little banged up, plus the unknown in Maroth keeps me away.

Texas/Detroit: Tigers are winners of 7 straight, and 8 of their last ten. I sure ain't going against them. In Bonderman's last ten starts, the Tiger offense has given him less than 8 runs of support one time. Once! THat was a 3 run effort to KC on April 18th. Describe for me the value in Loe. I won't put my money on Texas, and Det is outta my price range. First game back home from a road trip, and sometimes funny things happen in those situations. Someone somewhere else dubbed it the "Nookie Angle" I whought it was funny, and I am not basing anything on that, but it seems that teams do somewhat poorly after a very successful road trip. Tiger RL or nothing, probably nothing.

Colorado/Cubs: Much success with the cubbies for myself this weekend. Didn't get involved with them in gm2 vs CWS, but hit 2 sides and an unposted total. Colorado off their sweep of the Yanks got themselves swept by the Bluejays. They are putting a good pitcher on the mound tomorrow, and I certainly won't be giving the cubs a great deal of credit for sweeping the White Sox. They are like the whore up the street, who hasn't done that lately. Besides gm3 the Rox still continued their good offensive performances. THeir pitching just let them down. Francis with scary bad numbers against the Cubs and decent road numbers, and Marquis with decent success against the Rox, and at home.

CWS/ TB: I wonder if Tb had a bullpen, how much better they would be. I also wonder how good the CWS would be if they had a team of actual big league ballplayers. Everything I have learned about baseball betting says play the Rays here. But -130 is a little steep for Howell, altho I think that is the right side. You can't keep fading a team for long can you? But the Whit esox are in a very bad way right now. Can anyone give me a good reason to not take Tampa?

Houston/Milwaukee: Houston continues to score runs. I bet Clemens is wondering where this shit was last year. jennings has decent away numebrs, but a small sample size. Doesn't he have some shoulder issues. Sheets is not infallable, but has been pretty good at home to the tune of 5-1. 9-8 for his career vs the Stros, but those past history numbers with Milwaukee I take with a grain of salt, as they are a better team now than in years past. With a total of 8, I am looking over, I am only looking.

Toronto/Minny: Another game where a team is coming off a good road trip. The twins have not lost a game yet in 4 starts that Slowey has pitched. With the way Toronto is playing at the moment, I feel I can back Holliday at this price. I see no value with the injured dog that is the twins. Isn't this about the time of the year the "aces" start to turn it on. I'll be on Toronto.

Dodgers/D Backs: I know reNew is very high on Owings, but I can't make a case for him in this situation. Arizonas success this year is based on timely hitting, and that is not something I think they will have an opportunity to get here. I am having a hard time finding chinks in Penny's armor, but the Dodgers are one of those teams that are an enigma to me. I just can't seem to figure them out. Strong lean to the dodgers, but they probably won't make the cut.

Boston/Seattle: I was 1-2 betting against the Bosox this weekend, and I think I will get back to even here today, w/l wise anyway. Sox get their DH back, and they face a guy who does not pitch to AL teams very well at all. His recent success stemmed from the fact that he was facing NL hitters, something he had much success with last year as a Cardinal. I am not thinking he will keep his solid form of his past two outings. Try and take my money Jeff, I dare you. I think the whole board may end up on this play. If you can make a case for Weaver, I would love to hear it.

Padres/Giants: Interesting situation with a team that took 2of 3 from the yanks with a youngster on the mound who has not looke dgood in his last few outings VS. a team that lost 2 of three to a good team with a young starter ont eh mound that has looked exceptional in my eyes. I like betting on Germano, probably because he has won me a bunch of money this year. I think the Pads will love getting back to beating up on the NL westies and begin another solid run here. Colorado won a series with the Yanks and look how well they performed after that.

KC/ LAA: no thanks.

all that adds up to 4 plays, and 4 leans:

plays, tampa, SD, Tor, Bos.

leans: LAD, Hou ov8, Wash un/ or 1st5 un, Det RL.

probably will put in Boston now, as I think the line will inch up.

 

[Satyr]

Can anyone give me a good reason to not take Tampa?

you're laying chalk on that horrid bullpen. And the fact we all drew the line and said the White Sox are done for the season (and has been like that for a while now) doesn't mean they will go winless until the end of the season. They know they're done, but they still have a talented bunch there, and they're surely not Kansas City, even though coincidentally their record won't be much better than KC once the season is over.

I'm just not comfortable laying chalk with Howell and with that pen.

 

[Satyr]

Slim I like your writeup. I do lean the Red Sox as well. Weaver can dominate NL lineups occasionally but Boston are nowhere in that category, I think they should be happy to come to a hitters' friendly park and hitting some not so stellar pitching as they had to do in SD.

 

[E.T.G.]

I got BoSox locked in last night, line got hammered from -120 to -136..


I am very tempted with the Blue Jays and the Dodgers. These are very cheap prices to get some very good pitchers. Penny -127 is total disrespect to him.

The Mets are priced out of my range but I will be watching Maroth tonight as I think he gets hit hard by the Mets but will do alright in the Central.

 

[reNew Orleans]

EVERYONES ON THE RED SOX!!!

I just had a test, so now I can CAP. lol I put quite a bit of capping last week and came out with like .5 a unit those days then Sunday I just looked at lines and played some trends, hot vs cold teams, etc and came out perfect. weird

 

[E.T.G.]

Renew - I am not that worried about that, it the same shit with the Tigers and Cubs this wkend, everyone was on them. At -120 it was too cheap not to fade Weaver, thats how I feel

 

[reNew Orleans]

I am a GENIUS.

Toronto is 11-3 vs LHP @ home, not TAMPA. Atleast that shit came out a winner.

Reason to not to take Tampa, besides the bullpen... idk. WhiteSux blow. I may lay the chalk on Tampa as Howells two home starts have been pretty good even if it was against SD and KC. It's not like the ChiSox are much better offensively at the moment and their bullpen is THE WORST.

 

[reNew Orleans]

Renew - I am not that worried about that, it the same shit with the Tigers and Cubs this wkend, everyone was on them. At -120 it was too cheap not to fade Weaver, thats how I feel

Yea, I mean I agree... it's just everyones on it haha. I didn't think Weaver would do badly in interleague because of what he showed us last year. I even said that the game vs the Pirates when he faced Maholm would go under and I would back him but I didn't bet that game. But yea he's facing an AL team and will get crushed.

 

[reNew Orleans]

is there a reason why cleveland and oakland is offline now?

Is CC starting?

 

[E.T.G.]

yes he is

 

[Houghton Chemical]

Cleveland is OTB because CC is now picthing. Lee is out.

 

[E.T.G.]

It means Indians -185 or more

 

[E.T.G.]

Indians -180 is the line I see

 

[reNew Orleans]

<table class="module" rgfloat="440,600" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="800"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td colspan="8" nowrap="nowrap"><small>Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians</small></td></tr><tr style="height: 28px;" bgcolor="#f6f6f6" valign="bottom"><td nowrap="nowrap">Mon 6/25</td><td nowrap="nowrap">963 </td><td nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
C Gaudin -R</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="S1_29" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">+1½ -130 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="M1_29" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">+168 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="L1_29" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">Over 9 -110 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap"></td></tr><tr style="height: 28px;" bgcolor="#f6f6f6" valign="top"><td nowrap="nowrap">7:05PM (EST) </td><td nowrap="nowrap">964</td><td nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
C Sabathia - L</td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="S2_29" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">-1½ +110 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="M2_29" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">-180 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="radiox" value="L2_29" name="radiox" language="javascript" onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type="radio">Under 9 -110 </td></tr></tbody></table>
C.C. has given up 4 ERs his last two starts, lasting 8.1 and 6 innings, both @ home to Phi and ATL.
Gauden has given up 4 and 5 ERs his last two starts, lasting 4.1 and 6.2, @ Hou and at home vs Cin.
Oakland OWNS C.C. (1-5 Lifetime, 6.60 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, .295 ERA, 46 Ks, 30 BB in 58.2 IP)
Both offenses struggled last series.
Over 9-3-1 last 13 meetings.
Wind blowing out to Left-Center @ 5 mph

All that being said, I may take a shot at OAK and OVER, wish it was 8.5 though. Both need to get out of their mini slumps.

 

[E.T.G.]

fuk I forgot to set my fantasy lineup

(I saw CC and thought fantasy)


Those are some rough #'s vs. Oakland and Clev looked like shit last series vs. the Nats but they are home now. Still hefty price to pay for CC who hasn't been that sharp

 

[reNew Orleans]

The OVER on matchbook opens up @ 10, thats ridiculous.

 

[E.T.G.]

Few Notes about the Dodgers-DBacks series..Stolen from Covers.com article

DBacks have the NL best record of 44-32 and lead the NL West

Dodgers led the NL West for 44 of 45 days before the start of June and are 1.5 games back

“We’ll put this behind us and move on,” Dodgers left fielder Luis Gonzalez told the Los Angeles Times. “We know we’ve got a big four-game set there and … we’ve got our ace going tomorrow, so the confidence level will be there for our ballclub.”
Penny who starts today, may be the National League’s best pitcher. The big right-hander is 9-1 with a 2.12 ERA and the Dodgers have won in 13 of his 15 starts.
Expect to see Nomar Gariaparra back in the lineup today. The Dodgers first baseman sat out the series against the Devil Rays because of the flu but says he feels much better.

 

[E.T.G.]

Reds Sox -1 $113 to Win $115
Dodgers ML $128 to Win $100


Thats what I am on today, maybe 1 more later, I don't know but if I got suckered into these bets by the books than so be it, I just can't pass up Penny who should be like -155 and the situation is an advantage to the Dodgers with their Ace on the mound.. The DBacks sit atop of the NL West, lets see how they do when the teams are now gunning for them. I couldn't pass up fading Weaver either, not for +money on the -1 line.

 

[E.T.G.]

----------------Ummmmm me and 3/4 of this board are either going to go down hard tonight or Vegas is going to get crushed...Below are the tout picks and 75% are on the BoSox, LAD, Jays--------------------------



Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (62-16 TY!)

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 25 2007 9:40PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: Brad Penny has been MLB's biggest 'moneymaker' this year, as the Dodgers have gone 13-2 in his starts (plus-$1,026). His ERA is 2.12 on the year and when one realizes that EIGHT of the 23 ERs he's allowed this season came in one start (at the Angels on May 18), his ERA is his other 14 starts drops to 1.46! Think the Dodgers believe he's their stopper? Penny was moved back a day so that he could start the opener."It gives Penny one more day and we want him to pitch in the series in Arizona," said manager Grady Little. If Penny's current form isn't enough to back the Dodgers here, note that Penny has been tough against the Diamondbacks, going 6-2 with a 1.88 ERA in 13 career starts against them. In two starts against Arizona this season, he has allowed just one run in 13 innings (0.69 ERA) while going 1-0 (team won both games). Arizona will start Micah Owings (5-1, 4.06), who has won four decisions in nine starts since his last defeat on April 11 against Cincinnati. The rookie right-hander has allowed more then three runs just twice in 11 starts this year. However, he's no match for Penny. Also note that the Diamondbacks have dropped eight of their last 10 games against the Dodgers, including four of five this season. They have also lost four straight at home in the series, including a two-game sweep April 16-17. NL Game of the Week 15* LA Dodgers.
Larry Ness' 15* MLB Blowout GOW (62-16 TY!)

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Jun 25 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Reason: The Red Sox took two of three games from the Padres over the weekend, finishing interleague play 12-6, the third-best mark in the majors. Boston won for the seventh time in nine games and stayed percentage points ahead of the Angels for the best record in the majors. Since losing a season-high four straight, the Red Sox have won 11 of 16! The Red Sox have been a dominant road team this year, going 25-14 (plus-$1,152) away from Fenway, including a mark of 21-7 (plus-$1,590) when facing a right-handed starter. The Mariners overcame two home runs by Ken Griffey Jr. and rallied for a 3-2 victory Sunday over Cincinnati. Seattle continues to be very streaky, winning four of five after losing a season-high six straight which followed five consecutive victories. Tonight's starters are Julian Tavarez and Jeff Weaver. The right-handed Tavarez has been better than expected as a starter this year, particularly lately. He is 4-0 with a 3.65 ERA in his last seven starts, with the Red Sox going 6-1. The Mariners are 14-6 vs lefties this year but just 25-27 vs righties. Jeff Weaver of Seattle is coming off his best outing of the season. He entered Wednesday's start against Pittsburgh 0-6 with a 10.97 ERA but shut down the Pirates with a four-hitter in a 7-0 victory. Weaver is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three interleague starts, compared to 0-6 with a 14.32 in six starts against the AL. Weaver was tagged for seven runs and seven hits in only two innings of a 14-3 loss at Boston on April 10. He is 3-5 with a 6.99 ERA in 12 career starts against the Red Sox. The Red Sox are NOT the Pirates. MLB Blowout of the Week 15* Bos Red Sox.

Karl Garrett
Boston (-125) at SEATTLE

Tonight I can't pass up the Boston Red Sox at such a cheap price!
Julian Tavarez has looked very solid over his last few starts, and he has won his last 2 starts in convincing fashion, working 14 innings while allowing just 2 runs to score.
Jeff Weaver is fresh off a complete game shutout of the Pirates, but I am not sold that a win over Pittsburgh is enough to prove Weaver and his over 8 season ERA are out of the woods just yet.
Weaver did lose an April start at Fenway Park, as he got lit up for 7 runs in 2 innings of work. Boston has one of the best attacks in the game, and they also own one of the best road records in the game at 25-14.
This price is just too cheap too pass on, so I am grabbing the Red Sox tonight at Safeco Field.

3* BOSTON

Brandon Lang
15 Dime
LA Dodgers

Michael Cannon
Boston (-125) at SEATTLE


Take the Red Sox tonight for the road win over the Mariners.
Julian Tavarez, Boston's fifth starter, has won four straight decisions and shouldn't have any problems posting the win here tonight.
That's because his mound opponent is Jeff Weaver. Don't be fooled by his last game when the right-hander shutout the Pirates. That was a case of a blind squirrell finding the nut. I fully expect him to get pounded tonight by the BoSox potent offense.
Weaver pitched effectively in interleague play, but his numbers against the AL this year are atrocious. The right-hander is 0-6 with a 14.32 ERA in six starts against AL opponents.

Take the Red Sox as they cruise to an easy road win tonight.

4* BOSTON

MADDUX SPORTS

LA Dodgers -135

Carl Allen Sports MLB Los Angeles Dodgers ~vs~ Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers -124 7-2
583 7-2
583 Game Analysis

Fast Eddie Sports MLB Los Angeles Dodgers ~vs~ Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers -125 4-3
155 8-10
-189 Game Analysis


Alex Smart
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 25 2007 9:40PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason:
The LA Dodgers starter Brad Penney(9-1,2. 212 ERA) enters into this tilt against Western Division leaders the Arizona Dbacks, ready help his team make 9 wins and the L/11 meetings in this series., including 4 straight wins in the desert. The Dodgers are 1 ? games behind the Dbacks, and will be primed for a big performance as they look to gain ground in this key divisional NL race. With thats said, look for the Dodgers behind the arm of Penney to bring home the cash against the moneyline. Final notes & Key Trends: Los Angeles is 13-2 in Penneys starts this season and he is 6-2 in 13 career starts against the Dbacks garnering a stingy 1.33 ERA in those contests. Play on the Dodgers
Tom Freese
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 25 2007 9:40PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason: Los Angeles starter Brad Penny is in awesome KW form with 19 strikeouts and just 1 walk in his last 3 starts. The Dodgers are 13-2 in 15 starts made by Penny this year. That includes 2 wins over the Diamondbacks where he allowed a total of 2 runs. Arizona starter Micah Owings lasted just 4 innings in his only start against the Dodgers this year, a 6-4 loss. Play On Los Angeles - (Penny vs. Owings)

 

[reNew Orleans]

Reds Sox -1 $113 to Win $115
Dodgers ML $128 to Win $100


Thats what I am on today, maybe 1 more later, I don't know but if I got suckered into these bets by the books than so be it, I just can't pass up Penny who should be like -155 and the situation is an advantage to the Dodgers with their Ace on the mound.. The DBacks sit atop of the NL West, lets see how they do when the teams are now gunning for them. I couldn't pass up fading Weaver either, not for +money on the -1 line.

GL Green - the whole worlds on this 'an_horse'