Monday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Jun 13 Mon 2022

07:05 PM
901	Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R	+1½ -165	+130	O 7½ -115
902	Philadelphia PhilliesA. Nola -R	-1½ +145	-141	U 7½ -105

07:05 PM
903	Atlanta BravesI. Anderson -R	-1½ +100	-155	O 9½ +100
904	Washington NationalsJ. Gray -R	+1½ -120	+143	U 9½ -120

07:07 PM
911	Baltimore OriolesK. Bradish -R	+1½ +125	+248	O 8½ -110
912	Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R	-1½ -145	-279	U 8½ -110

07:10 PM
913	Chicago White SoxJ. Cueto -R		-120	O 9 +100
914	Detroit TigersR. Garcia -R		+110	U 9 -120

07:45 PM
905	Pittsburgh PiratesM. Keller -R	+1½ -125	+170	O 8½ -120
906	St. Louis CardinalsZ. Thompson -L	-1½ +105	-185	U 8½ +100

08:05 PM
907	San Diego PadresY. Darvish -R		-127
908	Chicago CubsJ. Steele -L		+117

08:05 PM
915	Houston AstrosC. Javier -R	-1½ +110	-151	O 9 -105
916	Texas RangersT. Hearn -L	+1½ -130	+139	U 9 -115

09:40 PM
909	Cincinnati RedsM. Minor -L	+1½ -160	+130	O 9½ +100
910	Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R	-1½ +140	-141	U 9½ -120

10:10 PM
917	Minnesota TwinsC. Archer -R		+100	O 8½ -105
918	Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R		-110	U 8½ -115

 

[2daBank]

Just 1st thoughts, I’ll try to back them up w numbers later on or in morning.

Kinda like Josiah Gray, think he starting to come into his own, at the very least he should fan a lot of Braves.

Phils got win streak snapped now they gotta face one my favorite pitchers. Hell of a duel w alcontera vs Nola, I’ll def be doing something here but not sure what? Out total for both pitchers be in play, a Ff under, and I do kinda lean fish at the price but gotta look closer, I’m sure there ton of history here.


Manoah out total prob be best thing to look at w jays, I’m assuming we talking 18.5 or 19.5 so stars will have to align to play it. His k prop most likely be 5.5 but he only a matchup play for k’s so have to see how much O’s whiffing these days.

Exciting to see Lance lynn back but prob nothing to play his 1st start. Nice easy matchup for him but who knows what kinda pitch count he be on? Honestly would be shocked if they gave a out total for him, maybe k’s but that wouldn’t interest me. Dunno much bout tigers pitcher but he right handed which means cws will prob struggle to score runs.


Javier shouldn’t have much trouble w rangers lineup. I’m sure there be a prop to play on him. -157 almost feels a bit short.

Pads w Yu seem really cheap at -127, cubs did take 2 of 3 last time but they didn’t see Darvish, I would think he cruises for 6-7 innings. Looks like pretty strong wind blowing out so he will need to fan guys or keep it on the ground tho.

Reds/snakes meeting back up quickly in the desert this time, it be awesome if we could get some roof open games but doesn’t seem likely with 115 temps! Lol. Still overs will be tempting in the games with pitchers they both saw last week.

That bout it far as off top my head. I’ll have to look way closer at cards game to have any thoughts. You Gotta figure they will prob take 3 of these 4 vs pirates tho, usually do a good job picking on these guys.

 

[2daBank]

Javier ov 5.5 k’s -120. This feels like one that cashes at a way higher clip than the price indicates. I’d be shocked if it didn’t get way more juice put on it throughout day so prob be wise to get on it early. When he doesn’t hit his k’s it generally cause he gets run from game early but I can’t see that happening here. He has had a extra day since his last start and historically he does really well in those spots, he has a excellent history vs rangers including a 6 inning 9k performance last month. Rangers back home from a road trip they fanned a bunch on over the weekend without a day off. This just feels like a spot Javier pitches well and that generally means a lot of swing and miss. Get it while the getting good!!

 

[2daBank]

I’m shocked Javier still at -120 while Manoah is up to -160. I fucked that up, thought I had more time to decide on Manoah, lol. Never been a line reader expert guy!

 

[2daBank]

Damn. Wish alcontera was on 5 days rest opposed to 4, he been good on 4 but he been un-freaking-hittable on 5 days this year! His ops against is damn near 100 points lower despite it only being .580 on 4 days rest!! His era on 4 is a very good 2.51, on 5 it a microscopic .78!! He has only allowed 4 earned runs in 6 starts on 5! again he plenty good on 4, he just happens to be the best pitcher in baseball on 5!

This is odd, overall he been pretty good vs Phillies with a 6-4 record and 3.11 era backed up by .680 ops allowed. You would think in Miami his numbers be better since that a much friendlier pitcher park than Phillies band box but it been the complete opposite! At citizen bank park the ops a bit better at .658 however the w/l and era go to 4–1 with a 1.84 era!! Don’t make a lot of sense other than he tends to keep the ball on the ground which obviously negates effect of park.

Nola isn’t on his best rest either as he is also better on 5 days than 4 (so strange to me teams don’t go out their way to accommodate this, obviously there times it can’t be helped but think it happens way too often!). Nola’s difference is far more damning, his career era on 4 is a pedestrian 4.30 with a .703 ops allowed! Another interesting thing is unlike alcontera who has fared better against Phillies in their park Nola has been much better when facing the fish in Miami!

Only thing that sucks is could have gotten a way better number on fish than available now but I really think fish plus anything is the right side here. Honestly I make fish a fav so they really botched this open imo! That does concern me a bit but maybe current form had something to do with it? I think that a mistake also, imo after a team gets a long win streak snapped betting against them the next game is a great spot! So despite Phils reeling off a bunch of wins after the manager change this isn’t a spot to think of them as hot.

 

[2daBank]

I was hoping for a 5.5 on Josiah Gray k prop. 6.5 feels a tad steep but at +130 still somewhat interested. Way back in April he had a 5 inning 1 hit 5k performance, he did walk 3 but left after only 82 pitches as pitchers wernt stretched out at that point. Imo he def woulda got a other inning and got to 6 k’s at least had that game been a month later. He on easily his best rest, in 13 career starts on 4 days rest he only has 1 loss! 3 starts vs Braves he has went 16 innings and fanned 21 and only allowed 4 earned runs. I’d like to play nats but that be breaking my rule of not getting in the way of a mlb steak that has went on this long.

 

[2daBank]

Im assuming gray awful home numbers thus far are more based off coincidentally having bad matchups? Can’t see any other reason for it, not like nats play in a bandbox.

 

[2daBank]

Braves whiff rate has gone down quite a bit during this hot streak. I just can’t play Gray over 6.5. I tried to find enough to like it with the plus money but 7k’s a pretty big ask. I think he be solid but number just isn’t right, can’t fade the win streak so just wasted my time on this one! Lol

 

[2daBank]

They charging a huge price for Lynn over 4.5 k’s, on one hand I have no doubt he will be 5.5 going forward but just to much uncertainty with his 1st start to be paying that high price tag!

What has happened to Darvish strike outs this year? They have nose dived more than 3 less per 9 innings! His swinging strike rate has dropped a tad but not enough to explain this kind of drop off, his velo hasn’t dipped, nothing you would expect to see for a guy who striking out so many less. Interestingly enough the hard hit rate is lowest of his career by a lot! We know scrubbies fan a lot so his k prop is tempting but I think I rather just play pads at the relatively cheap price.

 

[2daBank]

Javier ov 5.5 k’s -120. This feels like one that cashes at a way higher clip than the price indicates. I’d be shocked if it didn’t get way more juice put on it throughout day so prob be wise to get on it early. When he doesn’t hit his k’s it generally cause he gets run from game early but I can’t see that happening here. He has had a extra day since his last start and historically he does really well in those spots, he has a excellent history vs rangers including a 6 inning 9k performance last month. Rangers back home from a road trip they fanned a bunch on over the weekend without a day off. This just feels like a spot Javier pitches well and that generally means a lot of swing and miss. Get it while the getting good!!

Like clockwork baby!

 

[2daBank]

Even tho the +1.5 was expensive with fish feel like made a mistake not playing the RL/under in that game. Still woulda paid pretty good, somewhere around +160/+170 id guess. Dunno why didn’t go there? Just cause I liked fish ml doesn’t mean I should pass up chances to play those. Sucks they blew that game.

 

[2daBank]

I don’t understand why Josiah Gray got scratched cause rain delay, not like he came out and pitched, guess maybe he had warmed up? Oh well, didn’t mess with luckily.