Monday Discussion/Thoughts

[reNew Orleans]

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Mon 8/13</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">901</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">G1 San Francisco Giants
M. Cain</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -214 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 +105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 02:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">902</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">G1 Pittsburgh Pirates
P. Maholm</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +194 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 -115 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">903</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">G2 San Francisco Giants
N. Lowry</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -219 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-107 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">904</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">G2 Pittsburgh Pirates
S. Youman</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +199 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -120 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">905</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
R. Oswalt</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -219 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7.5 -106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">906</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +199 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7.5 -104 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">907</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 +109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+230 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">908</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
C. Wang</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -119 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-250 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">909</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
C. Gaudin</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -146 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+135 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -123 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">910</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
C. Durbin</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-143 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 +113 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">911</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Shields</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -130 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+162 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">912</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
T. Wakefield</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +120 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-170 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">913</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
J. Litsch</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-122 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -115 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">914</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
O. Perez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 +105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 8/13</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">915</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
JO. Santana</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +146 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-115 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7.5 +110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">916</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -156 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+107 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7.5 -120 </td></tr></tbody></table>

<table bordercolor="#cccccc" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#ff0000"><td colspan="3" class="sports-label">Monday, Aug 13</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> American League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Tampa Bay at Boston
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> James Shields
Tim Wakefield
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Oakland at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: Derryl Cousins</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Chad Gaudin
Chad Durbin
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">7:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Baltimore at NY Yankees
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Jeremy Guthrie
Chien-Ming Wang
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Toronto at Kansas City
Home Plate Umpire: Sam Holbrook</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Jesse Litsch
Odalis Perez
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">10:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Minnesota at Seattle
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Johan Santana
Felix Hernandez
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3" class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb"> National League </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Time</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Game</td> <td class="small-copy-sans" bgcolor="#ffdccb">Starters</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">5:05 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Matt Cain
Paul Maholm
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">8:35 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Noah Lowry
Shane Youman
Bullpen Availability </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="small-copy-sans">10:10 PM ET</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Houston at LA Dodgers
Home Plate Umpire: N/A</td> <td class="small-copy-sans"> Roy Oswalt
Chad Billingsley
Bullpen Availability</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[tee*dub]

Oswalt at plus money jumps out immediately.. Dodgers not only are not scoring they are playing terrible defense...

I have an ongoing fade on the Dodgers right now so I am immediately attracted to anything that looks like a play opposite them.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Baltimore +230

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Blue Chip... shall I did your grave or will you do it? j/k might not be a bad play but I can't go against the Yanks right now. No play for me.

 

[Blue_Chip]

AgainstThePublic:

Vegas is saying that the Yankees win this game 71.43% of the time; the best record in the MLB is currently Boston winning 59.8% of games.

On the season, Guthrie sporting a 3.22 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while Wang shows a 3.94 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. In their last 5 starts, Guthrie still sports the better ERA and WHIP. Add to it that these are division opponents.

Will the Yankees win? Probably, but if I win this bet once every third time, I still show a profit.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Off the top of my head, I'll be digging into

Over in KC: If Toronto keep up their record of losing on the road off a road win, I think it'll require Kansas to post some decent runs, simply because a Minnesota team that scored 11 on OPs last start, is the same team that has only scored 16 totals runs in the 10 games surrounding that 11 run outburst. If he (& his help) could cure that horrible offense's woes, surely the lefty loving BJ's can get to him. OP has a 6.56 ERA last 7 starts, 4 straight home Overs during this time. Kansas get a righty which they prefer (record wise) and while Litsch has a good road ERA, outside of a start vs Tampa his WHIP is 1.68 which means his parallel ERA of 3.27 is nearly a run lower than such a WHIP would anticipate. KC average 4.46 runs off being held to 0-1 runs this season.

Given the vistor's massive road 12-0-2 to Under streak, it'll be interesting to see how popular this one gets - wagerline has under ahead, which has as much to do with this streak as anything else.

The Umpire is 10-4 to Over for the "normal" totals range of 8.5-9.5

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

think the yanks win today...but yeah, that line is crazy. tremendously over-valued/over-priced...so i totally understand looking at baltimore.

w/out capping...i'd look at the A's/Tigers under, and SF...maybe even in both, to sweep.

 

[Satyr]

Seattle definitely jumps out. I think Minnesota knows they're out of contention by now, and I don't see a whole lot of heart in their game, even now with Cuddyer back in the lineup.

Seattle is 5-1 in its last 6 games
Seattle is 18-7 in its last 25 games at home
Seattle is 37-22 at home in 2007.

The Mariners even won last night away with Weaver on the mound which was a bad spot for them, coming back home with Felix on the mound.

Feeling good taking a team on a mission, the better team, far better lineup, against a team that were hoping to tamper with Indians' and Tigers' playoff plans up until recently, only to fall in another bad streak and probably lose all chances for it.

Anyways, just a lean so far, digging a bit deeper now.

 

[JPicks]

Tough day for the Pirates/Giants. After playing Sunday in San Francisco, both teams travel across the country to play in a doubleheader in Pittsburgh. I would imagine you won't see Bonds in either game and you might not see many runs in either game.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Agreed, JPicks, SF should be a low scoring game. Oakland/Detroit, on the otherhand, should be a shootout with Durbin and Gaudin taking the mound.

 

[tuck321]

Well a gun would not stop me on Seattle and KC. Houston is interesting. The Dodgers are a mess but that might be a first half bet for me. And actually Tampa Bay is live today. Nothing is going well for Boston and this is a night game. The last 10 times Wakefield has pitched at home he has 3 quality starts and Tampa is starting to think they can win games and they used mostly just the bad relief last night. Trying to find some favorites as I like to keep my dog-fav ratio balanced.

 

[Santacapper]

real unintriguing card for myself... save for a few trends like Jays and off road wins etc.

hard to go against the #'s of Litsch though right now and the Jays always hitting lefties... but being a fave is ludicrous to me.

TB gets destroyed in Boston, but Boston returning from a lengthy road trip etc keeps me off.

possibility of a Tigers RL play but all in all Im most likely an (observer) tonight and looking at tomorrow

 

[tuck321]

Lets talk about the Yankee game. Pinnacle has the Yankees minus 250 and many think this is too much. Actually this is not easy to estimate. Yanks have won 15 of their last 20 at home so based on this you need +300 as a dog to break even. Wang at night su is 11-2 so based on this you need plus 550. If you look at the Baltimore pen you see the box last 3 games and their best reliever is at 6.75 last 3 so this is what the Yanks will be chewing on after Guthrie.
Guthrie on 4 days rest based on 73.1 innings era of 2.33. Wang based on 293.1 innings is 4.14. Guthrie at home gets shelled but 3 runs in 5 innings seems to be the speed of light on the road. The last 15 Yank home wins break 1 by 2 runs, 2 by 1 run and 12 by 3 and up. For me, possibilities are Yanks minus 2.5 plus 40 cents, Baltimore first 5 split plus .5 and ml or both. Will make a decision after seeing the ump as with Tampa. I will say again Boston is 36-20 at home this year. I doubt they have lost 1 day home game. They are 12-8 their last 20 at home and this game is at night.

 

[Santacapper]

O's are somewhat peaking my interest tonight

Wang looked real flat with no movement on anything in his last outing vs Toronto a team who cant hit righties worth a lick who took him for 8 runs in 2.2 IP.

Guthrie has beaten the Yanks already twice this season... but never in the Bronx

The game Guthrie turns the ball over to the pen for a ND they lose... 5 Inning might be the way to go. He is 5-0 on the road... O's are 5-4 in those 9 road starts.

 

[Satyr]

Tuck, every capper I know is on Toronto tonight. However you like KC, how come?

Just curious, since I won't be touching that game. My gut says KC wins, but I had two losing bets on the series this weekend, not looking for a third. GL

 

[Santacapper]

Satyr - Cant speak for Tuck, but IMO Jays have won B2B road games in the same series 3 times all year and not since taking the first 2 in LA on June 9. THey havent won B2B road games since taking the finale in SF mid June and then a week later taking the opener in MInny June 25. Bad bad road team

 

[tuck321]

Not exactly a bad road team. Very simply they are another mentally injured team just like the Cardinals who do what they intend to do. In this thread a few days ago I posted a 4 team parlay of kc, toronto, kc and then toronto at home vs Angels. I may skip the fourth section as it actually does not fit in the road theme but am now up 4 units on the parlay which I am firing with tonight. Very simply I do not believe Toronto has any intention of winning tonight. This team worked hard Sunday and will work hard Tuesday so we have sleepy Monday for Toronto.

 

[Santacapper]

well maybe 'bad' isnt the right word... but they still have the 4th worst road record inthe AL

and by all accounts a season goal of .500 on the road is now far from reach...

 

[tuck321]

True I said they are similar in many ways to plant life but the Only way they win tonight is if Perez is So bad they cannot dodge his pitches which could happen.

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Yes Guthrie has beaten the Yanks twice but that was when they were still playing as if it were Spring Training. Why do people continue to get in front of the semi-truck? Now I do believe every dog has it's day and perhaps the Orioles may win tonight. If any a spot this is a good spot. Mo was used yesterday and Wang has struggled the last few games. I think Guthrie gets abused and Yanks win 8-4. Looking at the over as a strong play. Waiting for lineups. GL.

 

[AgainstThePublic]

What's funny is that A-rod carried this team the first half of the season and now look what happens when the rest of the team starts hitting. Pretty scary.

 

[Santacapper]

What's funny is that A-rod carried this team the first half of the season and now look what happens when the rest of the team starts hitting. Pretty scary.

IMO as Abreu goes, so go the Yanks:cheers:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Over 9.5 in KC, for small