Monday, 8/27 Discussion

peelpub94

peelpub94

More Guards Than Shawshank
Going to wait for FF5 Under in NY- total already went up from over night. I like VirginiaCav's write up on this one.
 
peelpub94 said:
Will probably be on Gray and the Rox in some fashion.
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I’m playing ROX here too. Despaigne looks like he’s just filling a spot here for the angels as he’s getting hit pretty regularly. Gray is in fine form and I expect him to pitch a full seven if not 8 after yesterday’s debacle. Also leaning under tonight and tomorrow.
 
Fully expecting the Athletics regression to start now. Their September schedule looks somewhat easy but I've had enough of Brett Anderson and Edwin Jackson. They're simply not good pitchers.
 
First half under in Angels seems very live

JON GRAY vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
GRAY is 1-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)
ODRISAMER DESPAIGNE vs. COLORADO since 1997
DESPAIGNE is 3-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.83 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)
 
Agree on the regression but today is tricky based on the Monday factor
Cole on Monday poor history but he is playing on 6 2.33 ERA after a terrible let down last game
UMP here could easily matter but do feel Houston hitting better and pens at least very close
 
Angel pitcher for some reason does not pitch often on 5 but the history is definitely his best rest
 
Strasburg is 10-2 when starting against the Phillies with a 2.48 ERA and a WHIP of 0.896 ... His team's record is 17-5 in these starts
 
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peelpub94 said:
Fully expecting the Athletics regression to start now. Their September schedule looks somewhat easy but I've had enough of Brett Anderson and Edwin Jackson. They're simply not good pitchers.
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I’ve only let him burn me once or twice cause luckily I’m not playing much other than cardinal games but Edwin getting these results again and again is mind boggling! Dude been a gas can for damn near a decade it seems. Dunno wtf going on there??
 
Yankees are 15-3 in their last 18 games when playing at home against the White Sox

Rodon 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA in 4 career games against the Yankees.

Tanaka 4-0 ... 2.23 ERA vs. White Sox


Yankees are 19-5 (.792) against AL Central teams this year, the best record of any club versus any division.
 
Rodon has become the pitcher that made him the 3rd overall pick out of NCSt.

His last 8 starts, averaging 7+ innings, his ERA is 1.74, WHIP 0.93. In those 8 starts, W Sox are 6-2. Four of those games came against teams with winning records, winning 3 of them. In those 3 wins Rodon worked 21.33 innings allowing ZERO Earned runs, one unearned
 
Since the start of the 2005 season ...

2,008 MLB games have closed with over/unders of 10.5 or higher with 1,003 (51.3%) finishing under the total.
 
2daBank said:
I can’t believe a Lester vs Thor matchup has a 10.5 total, wind must be howling in chi town today!
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Remember the other day the Cubs had a AAA pitcher vs Harvey, wind blowing out and there was 5 runs through 10 innings? Total was set at 13 that day. Is Vegas playing into public perception of OMG wind is blowing out must be 20 runs!!
 
Small play on Yanks. 3-10 to 8-8 could pass on the bad history was tough but was staying off but a strong ump edge to Tanaka pitched me over
 
peelpub94 said:
Remember the other day the Cubs had a AAA pitcher vs Harvey, wind blowing out and there was 5 runs through 10 innings? Total was set at 13 that day. Is Vegas playing into public perception of OMG wind is blowing out must be 20 runs!!
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Syndergaard hasn’t looked like himself lately. Last 6 outings:
6 IP, 2 ER
5.2, 4 ER at Philly
7.0, 3 ER at Miami
6.1, 4 ER
7.0, 3 ER at Wash
5.0, 1 ER

The only Cubs player to see him this year is Daniel Murphy.

And I always feel that Lester has a terrible start every 4 or so. He gets shelled for 8 ER and then the next game he pitches 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 hitter.
 
peelpub94 said:
Remember the other day the Cubs had a AAA pitcher vs Harvey, wind blowing out and there was 5 runs through 10 innings? Total was set at 13 that day. Is Vegas playing into public perception of OMG wind is blowing out must be 20 runs!!
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There just no way in hell I could play that over. Not only 2 really good pitchers but also one gets to face a garbage muts offense.
 
Big_Degenerate said:
Rodon has become the pitcher that made him the 3rd overall pick out of NCSt.

His last 8 starts, averaging 7+ innings, his ERA is 1.74, WHIP 0.93. In those 8 starts, W Sox are 6-2. Four of those games came against teams with winning records, winning 3 of them. In those 3 wins Rodon worked 21.33 innings allowing ZERO Earned runs, one unearned
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This scares me but when Days of week, umpire histories and history all point toward Yanks at least a small bet has to be made. Very small
 
Taking a small flyer on the Nationals. They seem pretty comfortable hitting against Eflin. Strasburg does have velocity concerns but has great success with Jim Wolf ump (9-16 for the home team) and likes to pitch in Philly. I don't believe in the Phillies, their youth and inability to hit situationally are starting to shine through.
 
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Barring the typical 1st inning Lester meltdown, the Cubs look real sexy at -135. Going light on a Cubs/Stros parlay, and will go big on Cubs if Lester cruises through 1st inning.
 
How can you not hit the over in philly? These guys just saw each other 5 days ago and they both were lit up. They didn't add any pitches in 5 days. Or at least Wash TT over now that they broke out of the slump
 
peelpub94 said:
Barring the typical 1st inning Lester meltdown, the Cubs look real sexy at -135. Going light on a Cubs/Stros parlay, and will go big on Cubs if Lester cruises through 1st inning.
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Thor has always had a exceptional ground ball rate tho,, with that wind feel like gives him a big advantage. But it is the muts tho so certainly hard to argue against ya, lol.. I couldn’t help myself I had to get down a little on that under, probably a sucker bet!
 
2daBank said:
Thor has always had a exceptional ground ball rate tho,, with that wind feel like gives him a big advantage. But it is the muts tho so certainly hard to argue against ya, lol.. I couldn’t help myself I had to get down a little on that under, probably a sucker bet!
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I don't think it's a bad bet at all. Waiting on ump to entertain F5 under.
 
Luke Voit batting cleanup for the yanks, I like that kid but wouldn’t have ever guessed that would happen some day when watching him w cards! lol. He has been raking for the yanks tho. Lefty bullpen cat we got in that trade been ok for us and glad to see Luke have some success even tho I hate the yanks, lol, seemed like a good kid so good for him!!
 
The Farm said:
How can you not hit the over in philly? These guys just saw each other 5 days ago and they both were lit up. They didn't add any pitches in 5 days. Or at least Wash TT over now that they broke out of the slump
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Stras velocity down in last start (first off DL), says it was fatigue rather than any residual injury problem.
 
The under has hit 10 of the last 12 times Brett Anderson has been on the mound for the Athletics ... average of 7.1 runs
 
Ump in Houston Randolph. Loves the road t team loves the under Brett 8 innings 0 ERA i believe CRAP
 
3 ERA for Lester
Took toronto but stuck in a very small first half bet on Baltimore probably not necessary hess worst catcher
 
In Phil major over ump but both starters did well with him but at that time he was not an over ump
Small bet over
 
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