Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I'm glad I didn't put my entire bankroll on Miami yesterday. Always seems like the ones that seem as the biggest no brainer are the ones that hit the least. Salvaged a positive day going 3-2, hitting the two late night games. I'm thinking if I would have woke up about 1:15 yesterday I'd have had a pretty decent day.
06-07 NBA Basketball Record 44-34-3 +$1290 (56.4%)
11/05 3-2 +$50
11/04 10-8-1 +381
11/03 13-9-1 +$492
11/02 3-1 +232
11/01 9-8-1 +$458
10/31 2-4 -$435
Preseason 4-2 +$162
1st Half
ATS 1-0-1 +$50
Totals 0-1 -$55
2nd Half
ATS 4-4 +$52
ML 1-0 +$150
Totals 5-4-1 -$103
Game
ATS 26-17-1 +$622
ML 6-5 +$865
Totals 2-3 -$241
Monday Discussion
Washington at Orlando -3.5
I've been having a tough time figuring out this Orlando team. After their first couple of games, they're playing under what I perceive to be their talent level. If this keeps up I may have to start fading them. Orlando has been getting their points from a variety of different options, with six guys averaging over 9 points a game. Grant Hill has led the team in scoring over the first three games, which seems unbelievable looking at how far his career has stumbled because of injuries. Carlos Arroyo has stepped up nicely scoring 14.5 points on 78% shooting on the season. Orlando's biggest downfall on the early season is their 22.3 turnovers they're averaging a game. Washington is the same team from last season if the early season is any indication. Arenas, Jamison, and Butler will need to carry the team on their back. Antonio Daniels has been a bit better than I thought so far this season, but that won't least. A big concern of mine is that the big three for Washington will be in fall trouble in this game and Orlando is such a deeper team. I'm leaning towards taking Orlando as I feel they have a deeper bench and Howard should be too tough for Jamison, Haywood, and Thomas to handle inside. Orlando has also done a nice job of putting points on the board at home. I think the total is right around where it should be, but it seems higher than what I expected as I was hoping to make a over play. I lean towards Orlando to win this game because of their deeper bench and more offensive options. They're on the tail end of a back and back remember as well...
$125 NY Knicks +7
I'll ride it with BAR. Check out his thoughts/discussion on the game. I also like the over in this game, almost more than I like the side. My only worry is Spurs being tired in the 4th and not putting up the points I need.
$200 Bucks +6
$50 Bucks ML +206
*Warning* Might be a homer call here. I'm high on the Bucks this season, more so than any publication that I've seen, but I think at the end of the season when the Bucks are the 6th or 7th seed I'll be justified. I think Milwaukee will struggle this season against the slashing, high scoring, quick guard teams. Miami, New Jersey, Toronto, Philly come to mind... I think they match up well against teams like the Bulls. The key to the Bucks this year I believe will be team ball movement. Both Chilla (eames nickname for Charlie V) and Bogut are two big men that have great court awareness and find the cutters to the hoop. Michael Redd can take over the game at any point and should have his 25-30. Mo Williams has done a nice job at the point so far this year and Charlie Bell can come in defensively and provide a quick spell. Steve Blake has been a big suprise to me. He doesn't really show up in the box scores, but when he's in the games he's done a great job as a floor general moving the ball to open men. Like Bogut and Chilla, he may be two passes away from the score and the assists aren't there (although ast/48 is outstanding). Patterson can body up on Deng who's been lights out lately, and if he's not up to the task I could see Chilla and his long arms on him. I also think we'll see more of Dan Gadzuric tonight matching up with Big Ben. In a close ball game, I really like the Bucks to pull off the game. Redd is a go to player and the Bulls struggle as a team to shoot free throws. Tyrus Thomas, Big Ben, and Deng are all liabilities, and even Hinrich could be a bit more reliable.
Golden State at Dallas
Agree completely with BAR. Couple of more thoughts... Monta Ellis is the leading scorer at 15.7 a game... Monta WHO??? Baron Davis has been awful this season and he's notoriously a bad free throw shooter, especially for a guy who gets contact so often. Jason Richardson doesn't have the explosiveness and doesn't seem to be in game shape recovering from his knee surgeory. Troy Murphy moving to center has cut down his rebounding effectiveness. Pietrus needs to shoot more and Dunleavy is struggling with Nellie's system. I'm hoping to see more PT for Devin harris this year. I think he's exactly what the Mavs need to cure their offensive woes. He's more of a pass first point guard who can get to the line and cause the defense to collapse giving Howard and Nowitzki more open shots. Terry has struggled this season and its about time he stepped his game up. The Mavs have only had 16 blocks/steals combined in their first two games, and I"m hoping that Diop and Croshere have had their asses chewed out to be more aggressive. Look for two nights of frustration to come out tonight. I'm looking at Mavs 1H and game, but think the line will drop a bit more yet. So I'm still waiting.
Have the rest of them coming... just wanted to get these out there so I don't lose them.
06-07 NBA Basketball Record 44-34-3 +$1290 (56.4%)
11/05 3-2 +$50
11/04 10-8-1 +381
11/03 13-9-1 +$492
11/02 3-1 +232
11/01 9-8-1 +$458
10/31 2-4 -$435
Preseason 4-2 +$162
1st Half
ATS 1-0-1 +$50
Totals 0-1 -$55
2nd Half
ATS 4-4 +$52
ML 1-0 +$150
Totals 5-4-1 -$103
Game
ATS 26-17-1 +$622
ML 6-5 +$865
Totals 2-3 -$241
Monday Discussion
Washington at Orlando -3.5
I've been having a tough time figuring out this Orlando team. After their first couple of games, they're playing under what I perceive to be their talent level. If this keeps up I may have to start fading them. Orlando has been getting their points from a variety of different options, with six guys averaging over 9 points a game. Grant Hill has led the team in scoring over the first three games, which seems unbelievable looking at how far his career has stumbled because of injuries. Carlos Arroyo has stepped up nicely scoring 14.5 points on 78% shooting on the season. Orlando's biggest downfall on the early season is their 22.3 turnovers they're averaging a game. Washington is the same team from last season if the early season is any indication. Arenas, Jamison, and Butler will need to carry the team on their back. Antonio Daniels has been a bit better than I thought so far this season, but that won't least. A big concern of mine is that the big three for Washington will be in fall trouble in this game and Orlando is such a deeper team. I'm leaning towards taking Orlando as I feel they have a deeper bench and Howard should be too tough for Jamison, Haywood, and Thomas to handle inside. Orlando has also done a nice job of putting points on the board at home. I think the total is right around where it should be, but it seems higher than what I expected as I was hoping to make a over play. I lean towards Orlando to win this game because of their deeper bench and more offensive options. They're on the tail end of a back and back remember as well...
$125 NY Knicks +7
I'll ride it with BAR. Check out his thoughts/discussion on the game. I also like the over in this game, almost more than I like the side. My only worry is Spurs being tired in the 4th and not putting up the points I need.
$200 Bucks +6
$50 Bucks ML +206
*Warning* Might be a homer call here. I'm high on the Bucks this season, more so than any publication that I've seen, but I think at the end of the season when the Bucks are the 6th or 7th seed I'll be justified. I think Milwaukee will struggle this season against the slashing, high scoring, quick guard teams. Miami, New Jersey, Toronto, Philly come to mind... I think they match up well against teams like the Bulls. The key to the Bucks this year I believe will be team ball movement. Both Chilla (eames nickname for Charlie V) and Bogut are two big men that have great court awareness and find the cutters to the hoop. Michael Redd can take over the game at any point and should have his 25-30. Mo Williams has done a nice job at the point so far this year and Charlie Bell can come in defensively and provide a quick spell. Steve Blake has been a big suprise to me. He doesn't really show up in the box scores, but when he's in the games he's done a great job as a floor general moving the ball to open men. Like Bogut and Chilla, he may be two passes away from the score and the assists aren't there (although ast/48 is outstanding). Patterson can body up on Deng who's been lights out lately, and if he's not up to the task I could see Chilla and his long arms on him. I also think we'll see more of Dan Gadzuric tonight matching up with Big Ben. In a close ball game, I really like the Bucks to pull off the game. Redd is a go to player and the Bulls struggle as a team to shoot free throws. Tyrus Thomas, Big Ben, and Deng are all liabilities, and even Hinrich could be a bit more reliable.
Golden State at Dallas
Agree completely with BAR. Couple of more thoughts... Monta Ellis is the leading scorer at 15.7 a game... Monta WHO??? Baron Davis has been awful this season and he's notoriously a bad free throw shooter, especially for a guy who gets contact so often. Jason Richardson doesn't have the explosiveness and doesn't seem to be in game shape recovering from his knee surgeory. Troy Murphy moving to center has cut down his rebounding effectiveness. Pietrus needs to shoot more and Dunleavy is struggling with Nellie's system. I'm hoping to see more PT for Devin harris this year. I think he's exactly what the Mavs need to cure their offensive woes. He's more of a pass first point guard who can get to the line and cause the defense to collapse giving Howard and Nowitzki more open shots. Terry has struggled this season and its about time he stepped his game up. The Mavs have only had 16 blocks/steals combined in their first two games, and I"m hoping that Diop and Croshere have had their asses chewed out to be more aggressive. Look for two nights of frustration to come out tonight. I'm looking at Mavs 1H and game, but think the line will drop a bit more yet. So I'm still waiting.
Have the rest of them coming... just wanted to get these out there so I don't lose them.
