MLB 2017 Discussion/Predictions Thread

[GWarner27]

Saw something like this in the NCAAF forum, think we should do this here.

Last year I had the Rangers to win the title, along with at least jump IIRC, but i'm not in the saber crew that complained every night and sacrificed goats for their downfall. Think they come back to earth a little, but are still the most likely division winner for a third straight year

 

[cubsker]

i really like houston's lineup. not sure on the health of mccullers, but their pitching should be decent. rangers sure have owned them the last two years though, but they're my pick from the AL. Indians will be right there as well. BoSox look to be the class of the East with Price/Sale/Porcello. I think they'll feel that Ortiz loss though. Without running any numbers, here's my instinct picks.

West: Astros
Cent: Injuns
East: RedSox
WC: Rangers, Mariners

Not much has changed in the NL. Cubs and Dodgers still the best two teams. Other 3 I list have a puncher's chance in the playoffs. Giants could be real good if Matt Moore is the guy that showed up last fall for an entire season. I still like how the Cubs match up against LA in a playoff series. The Mets still don't hit enough and Dusty is still managing the Nats.

East: Nats
Cent: Cubs
West: Dodgers
WC: Giants, Muts

AL: Astros
NL: Cubs
WS: Astros in 7, repeating is hard.

 

[xyzky]

I have the Rockies coming out of the West as my sleeper...Already bet them on the long shot WS title back in Nov. @ 100-1

 

[cubsker]

interested to see what they do with their pitching. i think it's pretty clear the traditional model of pitching does not and will not work there. that offense should score a ton there.

 

[GWarner27]

I have the Rockies coming out of the West as my sleeper...Already bet them on the long shot WS title back in Nov. @ 100-1

would be a great call, but i don't see any way in hell of that happening

Cub-- how can you stomach any sort of trust in the Mariners? They somehow feel the pressure every year yet are never really in much of a race and I love betting against them in the nightcaps

 

[cubsker]

Feel like Seattle should be strong on the mound and in the field and it's hard to go wrong with Cruz, Cano, and Seager. I like Smyly quite a bit, love the kid closing, and I think Gallardo will do fairly well in that park. Felix is Felix. Iwakuma is fine. Paxton has high potential with his stuff. Look like a pretty solid team and they can easily improve in RF and 1B if they need to midseason.

 

[Alan Tongue]

i really like houston's lineup. not sure on the health of mccullers, but their pitching should be decent. rangers sure have owned them the last two years though, but they're my pick from the AL. Indians will be right there as well. BoSox look to be the class of the East with Price/Sale/Porcello. I think they'll feel that Ortiz loss though. Without running any numbers, here's my instinct picks.

West: Astros
Cent: Injuns
East: RedSox
WC: Rangers, Mariners

Not much has changed in the NL. Cubs and Dodgers still the best two teams. Other 3 I list have a puncher's chance in the playoffs. Giants could be real good if Matt Moore is the guy that showed up last fall for an entire season. I still like how the Cubs match up against LA in a playoff series. The Mets still don't hit enough and Dusty is still managing the Nats.

East: Nats
Cent: Cubs
West: Dodgers
WC: Giants, Muts

AL: Astros
NL: Cubs
WS: Astros in 7, repeating is hard.

The work I've done so far likes the Nats also. I'll be interested to see their price on most regular season wins. I'm not in love with the Cubs like the market seems to be. Should be some good value going against them. AL West looks strong this season, looks like I will be fading the Rangers a bit early

 

[Alan Tongue]

openers from Billy Hill

ivision Winner

[TABLE="class: tableData, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: leftPad title, colspan: 8"] Division Winner - 2017 American League East [/TH]
[TH="class: rightPad title"] [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 9"] <nobr>

</nobr><nobr> </nobr><nobr>Show All</nobr>
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 03 Apr [/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 03:10 TIMEZONE_AEST [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 10/11

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Boston Red Sox
[/TD]
[TD] 3/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Toronto Blue Jays
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 9/2

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] New York Yankees
[/TD]
[TD] 15/2

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Baltimore Orioles
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 18/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Tampa Bay Rays
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

---

[TABLE="class: tableData, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: leftPad title, colspan: 8"] Division Winner - 2017 National League West [/TH]
[TH="class: rightPad title"] [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 9"] <nobr>

</nobr><nobr> </nobr><nobr>Show All</nobr>
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 03 Apr [/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 06:10 TIMEZONE_AEST [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 10/11

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Los Angeles Dodgers
[/TD]
[TD] 11/8

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] San Francisco Giants
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 14/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Arizona Diamondbacks
[/TD]
[TD] 14/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Colorado Rockies
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 28/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] San Diego Padres
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

---

[TABLE="class: tableData, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: leftPad title, colspan: 8"] Division Winner - 2017 National League Central [/TH]
[TH="class: rightPad title"] [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 9"] <nobr>

</nobr><nobr> </nobr><nobr>Show All</nobr>
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 03 Apr [/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 10:35 TIMEZONE_AEST [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 1/3

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Chicago Cubs
[/TD]
[TD] 5/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] St. Louis Cardinals
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 7/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Pittsburgh Pirates
[/TD]
[TD] 20/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Milwaukee Brewers
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 25/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Cincinnati Reds
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

---

[TABLE="class: tableData, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: leftPad title, colspan: 8"] Division Winner - 2017 National League East [/TH]
[TH="class: rightPad title"] [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 9"] <nobr>

</nobr><nobr> </nobr><nobr>Show All</nobr>
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 04 Apr [/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 03:10 TIMEZONE_AEST [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 8/11

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Washington Nationals
[/TD]
[TD] 15/8

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] New York Mets
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 10/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Miami Marlins
[/TD]
[TD] 16/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Philadelphia Phillies
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 18/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Atlanta Braves
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

---

[TABLE="class: tableData, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: leftPad title, colspan: 8"] Division Winner - 2017 American League Central [/TH]
[TH="class: rightPad title"] [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 9"] <nobr>

</nobr><nobr> </nobr><nobr>Show All</nobr>
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 04 Apr [/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 06:10 TIMEZONE_AEST [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 2/5

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Cleveland Indians
[/TD]
[TD] 9/2

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Detroit Tigers
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 13/2

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Kansas City Royals
[/TD]
[TD] 20/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Chicago White Sox
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 22/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Minnesota Twins
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

---

[TABLE="class: tableData, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: leftPad title, colspan: 8"] Division Winner - 2017 American League West [/TH]
[TH="class: rightPad title"] [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 9"] <nobr>

</nobr><nobr> </nobr><nobr>Show All</nobr>
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 04 Apr [/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad"] 09:05 TIMEZONE_AEST [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 7/4

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Houston Astros
[/TD]
[TD] 9/4

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Texas Rangers
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 3/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Seattle Mariners
[/TD]
[TD] 8/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Los Angeles Angels
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: rowOdd"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 10/1

[/TD]
[TD="class: leftPad, colspan: 2"] Oakland Athletics
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Alan Tongue]

<header class="drop-header"> Arizona Diamondbacks Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (79.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (79.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093926"> <header class="drop-header"> Atlanta Braves Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (72.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (72.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093927"> <header class="drop-header"> Baltimore Orioles Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (86.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (86.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> Boston Red Sox Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (91.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (91.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093929"> <header class="drop-header"> Chicago Cubs Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (95.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (95.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> Chicago White Sox Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (72.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (72.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093931"> <header class="drop-header"> Cincinnati Reds Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (73.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (73.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> Cleveland Indians Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (92.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (92.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093933"> <header class="drop-header"> Colorado Rockies Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (79.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (79.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093934"> <header class="drop-header"> Detroit Tigers Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (85.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (85.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> Houston Astros Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (87.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (87.5) </small> 1.88





<header class="drop-header"> Kansas City Royals Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (81.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (81.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093937"> <header class="drop-header"> Los Angeles Angels Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (77.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (77.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> Los Angeles Dodgers Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (91.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (91.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093939"> <header class="drop-header"> Miami Marlins Regular Season Wins


</header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (78.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (78.5) </small> 1.88





</section>

 

[Alan Tongue]

<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Milwaukee Brewers Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (72.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (72.5) </small> 1.88





[h=3][/h] <nav class="link-list-container" data-scroll="">
</nav> <section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093941"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Minnesota Twins Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (69.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (69.5) </small> 1.88





</section>






<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093942"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]New York Mets Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (89.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (89.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]New York Yankees Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (84.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (84.5) </small> 1.88





<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Oakland Athletics Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (67.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (67.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093946"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Philadelphia Phillies Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (73.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (73.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Pittsburgh Pirates Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (85.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (85.5) </small> 1.88





<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]San Diego Padres Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (65.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (65.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093949"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]San Francisco Giants Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (88.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (88.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Seattle Mariners Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (85.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (85.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093951"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]St Louis Cardinals Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (86.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (86.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Tampa Bay Rays Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (75.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (75.5) </small> 1.88





<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093953"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Texas Rangers Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (87.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (87.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<section class="block flat" data-sports-id="50093954"> <header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Toronto Blue Jays Regular Season Wins
[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void



Over
<small> Ov. (87.5) </small> 1.88



Under
<small> Un. (87.5) </small> 1.88





</section>


<header class="drop-header"> [h=3]Washington Nationals Regular Season Wins

[/h] </header> Must Play 160 Games or Bets Void





Over

<small> Ov. (91.5) </small> 1.88




Under

<small> Un. (91.5) </small> 1.88

 

[GWarner27]

Feel like Seattle should be strong on the mound and in the field and it's hard to go wrong with Cruz, Cano, and Seager. I like Smyly quite a bit, love the kid closing, and I think Gallardo will do fairly well in that park. Felix is Felix. Iwakuma is fine. Paxton has high potential with his stuff. Look like a pretty solid team and they can easily improve in RF and 1B if they need to midseason.

they seem to be going for it so i would agree about a likely midseason trade to fix what they need, but are we really ready for them to make that type of jump? I feel like Paxton has the stuff but putting it all together I will have to see to believe, think Gallardo is washed and then that bullpen besides the kid at the end was a disaster (a lot because they foolishly dealt Benoit). Wonder how effective the kid will be after he seemed to get worked and go multiple innings quite often when the team was fighting for an at-best, one-game playoff

Cruz at full-time DH probably means he's healthier this season, but that pulled hammy beating out a throw or stretching out a double are still very much in play and i wonder how much of an automatic out they'll have playing RF

 

[GWarner27]

from that list:
ARI u79.5, ATL o72.5, COL u79.5, NYM u89.5, SEA u85.5

 

[Lareux]

Atl ov 72.5
KC ov 81.5
Balt ov 86.5
Minn und 69.5

 

[GWarner27]

love that KC will to win larry

 

[Gyno]

Cards under 86.5?

 

[GWarner27]

i think we may see some more fluidity with the closer role this year than ever before. Not sure that the closer will come in for the heart of the lineup in the 8th, but we may see more 4-out saves which probably requires more safety with closers which means more unavailabilities so to win you'll need a deep pen.

AL thoughts:
BOS has Kimbrel closing and is pretty entrenched in the position thanks to good SV/OPP numbers despite always making things difficult for himself. When he blew saves, he really blew them and I don't like him nor Farrell's decision-making late in games. Carson Smith was a big acquisition who was hurt and gave nothing last year, which means he can't be relied upon for much this year either. The rotation now has a question mark with the health of Price, but Sale/Porcello/Wright/ERod/Pomeranz is still very solid to hold serve if Price can return. I expect Joe Kelly to be a dominant reliever thanks to his stuff, especially because Farrell can yank him if he's at all wild without really hurting his team for a week. Thornburg had an incredible year in Milwaukee and should be a welcome addition to what was a very shaky bullpen. Barnes was good and even closed some games when Kimbrel was panicking. Ross got beat up, but got overused. Abad was terrible, but also got overextended i think and with better depth the bullpen should be better (because it really has to be). Noe Ramirez should improve and will likely ride the bus between Boston and Pawtucket providing some help if needed along with Hembree. Lots of names to discuss here, which is a good thing for a contender.

TOR starts with Osuna, who could have regressed last year but did not. There are still concerns for that this year especially after his workload last year, but he's so young that his rubber arm may stay that limber. Behind him it gets a little scary and I think that's a big reason why BOS should be the favorite to win the division. Biagini emerged last year and Grilli has been great despite age and a propensity to miss seasons due to injury. I really like Howell, though I promise that's not a UT bias, and I think his addition is a big deal to both replace Brett Cecil and to not have to rely on Loup in the late innings. Joe Smith wasn't very good last year, but has been very reliable in the past and I can see him being the 8th inning guy who may decide a lot of games for the Jays. The top of the rotation is great with Sanchez, Stroman, Happ and Estrada if he can keep his back healthy, but Liriano's control is inconsistent and I have no faith in Bolsinger starting regularly vs the AL. That guy was incredible at losing games as a two-dollar favorite at home with a far better Dodgers team than what he was facing, so for their sake I hope he's a long man or puts his feet up in AAA until September.

BAL should have had the Cy Young winner on its roster last season, but I guess you can't give an award to a guy that isn't considered one of the best pitchers on the roster by his own manager who kept him in the pen in the elimination game. O'Day was hurt all year and is getting old, but he never really relied on arm strength so it's possible he can continue having success in the 8th if he's healthy. Brad Brach was not very good after being incredible, so I expect this year will be somewhere in between and would still consider him a guy I trust with my money. Showalter kinda threw Givens to the birds, no pun intended, despite being one of his best arms last year and I hope there are no lasting effects. Besides the incredible lefty at the end who may be extended for additional outs this year, Vidal Nuno has shown some ability though it appears Hart will be the other LHP in the pen. With Tillman's shoulder acting up, the rotation is enough of a concern that any love for the bullpen and lineup may not be worth division props nor a RSW over. Gausman is finally becoming what people thought he was, but behind him is Bundy who may be a better bullpen arm that has to start and may not be able to go deep in games. Tyler Wilson is young and seemed to be someone who could put it all together eventually, but he is far from trustworthy at this point. Ubaldo was great at the end of the season, but can't be relied upon for much besides eating innings. Wright was bad, Nuno hasn't started in a while, Miley gets crushed if he doesn't have astronomical groundball rates and Verrett may have a rude awakening in the AL.

NYY has cornered the market on the bullpen and Girardi is really good at stealing wins with relievers so that's a nice combo. Nothing needs to be said about Betances and Chapman besides maybe discussing workloads, but Clippard is a nice 7th inning guy and Layne can get outs LHP vs LH. Shreve also showed he can do it, so this may be a very deep bullpen (even better). The rotation has Warren on the side to fill in for people, which may be needed with CC being a prominent part of the rotation. Severino could turn it around this year, Pineda needs to be healthy, Green showed some good things and Tanaka can win games himself at times. Maybe Cessa comes in and starts also, so this entire pitching staff could be very different from Opening Day until the end of the season. Depth is nice, though the options stuff will be tricky. I like Cashman and think he will make some good moves with Girardi there, but at least they have options unlike a team like BAL. Now if only their offense can hit as that seems to be the biggest weakness and that's a problem in the little league field that they play in. Sanchez as a catcher is scary if he's the best hitter they got. Gregorious seems like he'll miss some time, Holliday needs this year to continue his career or he hangs it up and who knows what to expect from Starlin Castro. Bird off the torn labrum won the 1B job today, which is a big deal. Ells and Gardner have been terrible as they don't hit and can't run any longer, but what can you really do there? Lotta pressure on Judge to hit or that OF will contribute outs and diminishing defense by the day. Carter was a good signing for the reason only that they need some sort of power threat, but yeesh Headley is bad and this offense at home may offer wins to opponents like a welcome mat. They may be better served on the road in low-scoring games so if they jump ahead they can use that pen to hold a lead, but they won't get that @BAL, @TOR or @NYY. Maybe ride them when the bats are hot, but I don't think that offense is worthy of any money over the long run.

TB without Maddon looks like a cellar dweller despite some pretty good moves being made. Colome was great in the closer role last year with Boxberger hurt, maybe Box returns and adds another solid arm for the high-leverage innings. Cedeno was a fine LHP and Jim Hickey probably turns Jumbo Diaz into a stud because he seems to do those things every single year. Erasmo would be better served not going two innings at a time and he'll have some help with Farquhar who has shown he can do it and another project in Shawn Tolleson who was probably personally responsible for the Rangers not setting all-time wins records last year. The rotation no longer has Smyly, but can go Archer/Cobb/Odorizzi/Snell/Andriese and that should be a very good rotation. If BAL has that rotation, maybe they're setting their sights on the pennant. TB is going to be the pesky low-payroll team who won't have the offense to win games, but will be very tough at home and against bad pitching staffs.

CLE bullpen probably got them to the WS last year, actually it did. Miller coming into the game anywhere from the 6th until the 9th is terrifying and Allen is still a great option to close. McAllister throws bullets, but I really don't want anywhere near an under or bet on the Tribe. Boone Logan is another LHP who was pretty good in COL last year IIRC, he'll be another lefty but I can't imagine will be in too many high-leverage situations if Miller is available. Shaw is great, Otero had incredible numbers and looks good as well. This bullpen is so strong yet again and that will take a lot of pressure off Santana (and maybe Carrasco) who they will surely baby all year long.

DET has KRod closing who is probably throwing 78 mph now, slow enough even Jered Weaver is laughing at him. Eventually the change and the heater will be the same speed and he will be useless, but we can't be sure it's this year. That overnight dropoff will be an issue that needs to get patched up quickly, maybe Rondon fits in? I have trouble trusting him because of behavioral issues that got him suspended just a few seasons ago and the overweight stuff (hard to do as a reliever) plus not ever closing despite being the next guy forever. Mark Lowe's contract was so bad that they can't find anyone to take him via trade, but on the other hand he can't be as bad as he was last year. Shane Greene has a great arm and could have a very good year, I might even pick him as KRod's successor if it was up to me. The Wilson's are good and can be trusted, so they have some depth, but the rotation is filled with questions behind Verlander. Kate Upton's guy probably has another good year, behind him is Fulmer who tired last year and also has the sophomore slump to bust through as well. Norris somehow hasn't won a rotation spot yet, which he deserves, then Zimmerman's huge contract keeps him in the rotation even with his pitch-to-contact tendencies. Anibal is about as hit or miss as there is, but I like him more than Boyd, who should provide some good depth for a rotation that likely needs it. From thinking this was gonna be a disaster team to now thinking they are probably by far the 2nd best team in the division with upside on Kinsler/Miggy/VMart who can still do it, Upton who can get piping hot for a month and hopefully J.D. will return sooner rather than later.

KC lost Wade Davis, should be fine with Herrera closing, but getting a lead to the 9th is a big problem with Soria looking like the 8th inning guy. I like Strahm and don't think he will be in the rotation, but expect his role to be the 7th and Yost tries to bridge the gap to Herrera in the 9th and that will be a challenge. The rotation looks like it will struggle and put a ton of pressure on the bullpen, which is a really bad sign. They do have Chris Young to fill in as a starter or to be a bridge in the earlier innings, but he performed pretty poorly last year after an incredible 2015 so I'm especially considered if he needs to start. The rotation is Duffy (who had TJ), Kennedy (love him for K's but he is very inconsistent), Hammel (moving to the AL), Vargas (barely pitched last year) and a whole lot of guesswork for the 5th. Travis Wood hasn't started in a long time, Karns was hardly allowed to cross the 85-pitch mark in TB because he basically became ineffective there, Minor I can't imagine is being considered and Young. So there is a ton of concern with the pitching staff and I don't think Dave Eiland can overcome what he has to deal with here.

CHW is gonna trade Robertson, it just depends when and to whom. I would think WSH would be a likely candidate, but that's enough speculation. Jones is an arm I trust in the 8th and will likely take over the closer role when Robertson is moved near the trade deadline if not before. Jennings is fine as a lefty specialist and Petricka has been very good before so I wouldn't say he's as bad as his numbers were last year. The rotation looks like one that's rebuilding with Quintana likely being moved but being the ace for the time being. Holland's shoulder injuries have probably ended his career as a CG threat everytime he steps on the mound, but Rodon has a nasty slider and is improving with command and experience. Shields is making big money but is terrible, Gonzalez serviceable but will never strike out the side so the always-maligned defense better play well behind him. Abreu and Frazier can hit the ball out of the ballpark, Melky can get on base and then there's a lot of bad surrounding that. Can't imagine backing them much except with huge prices

MIN is another rebuilding team, which has to be good for RSW overs when 40% of teams are going to be awful and getting worse via trade. Perkins seems to be missing some time, which leaves Kintzler in the closer role again trying to recreate what he did last year. Molitor has talked about bullpen depth and that being needed, which makes sense given the rotation that looks like Hughes, Erwin, Santiago, Gibson and Berrios. I'm a little concerned that MIN may not use Berrios a ton in a lost year, but his clock started so I gotta think they use him instead of Duffey. The pen with Breslow as their LHP and Belisle who isn't what he was seems like a big problem. Sano will strike out 13513059324x and so will Dozier until he gets hot for a month like he was last October, but this team will be painful.

HOU has a ton of fanfare for a second year in a row, but it usually seems to be wrong the first year and right the second. They need to win more than 4 games against TEX to have a shot in the division race, which everyone in the world thinks TEX regresses so I'm fairly sure they'll get to 5. Keuchel needs a bounceback year and while I don't think he can live off what he did previously and win a Cy, he'll be better. McCullers needs to shake off injuries, but seems like he'll start the year in the rotation so he must be healthy. Fiers and Musgrove were battling for the 5th spot, but probably take two spots while McHugh comes back off a dead arm period early in the spring. Somehow Charlie Morton is in this rotation, which is a big concern if his sinker isn't incredible. He went from being an auto-fade to having a great year or so to being bad again, which is how I'd approach him now (especially with big pricetags because of the team he plays for). The bullpen should be better with Giles taking over the 9th at the end of last year, but Gregerson still probably deserves the job IMHO. Harris was very good at times, Sipp is not a LHP i trust whatsoever so they need someone else there. Devenski was really good for a while, but fell off. I'm not sure this team is as incredible as it is being spoken of at this point. They can certainly hit and they did improve the roster in the offseason, but the OF has a bunch of outs in it.

TEX fell on its face in the playoffs, mainly because it had to win games 1 & 2 and both Yu and Hamels had off nights. Gotta expect both those guys to return to form, especially Yu as he gets more reps and further away from TJ. Jeffress to Bush to Dyson should be incredible, hopefully Kela gets that ERA down because he was still throwing flames last year. I wonder if Scheppers is going to get some starts, but if not he'll be with Barnette as long men. Perez needs to K people, though I am a believer because he throws gas for a LHP. Griffin is tough to trust, Chi Chi can't K anybody and neither can Martinez. Ross is a big time project coming off a lost season and Cashner simply loses games so they are also in need of rotation help. Bannister is a solid manager and the team has won b2b division crowns, the most impressive being the comeback two years ago, but are looked down upon as always despite a lineup that just does good things. The catchers can hit, Napoli isn't a great defensive 1B but can hit and Moreland was part of the meltdown that cost the Rangers a playoff series in Toronto two years ago. They have depth across the lineup and on the bench and hopefully Daniels sees the need to add a SP.

SEA is a team that fights like heck to be .500 and never seems to be close to the division crown, but they're getting a ton of respect and I'm not sure I buy it. The Smyly addition was huge, but I think they have to fear Felix is on the way down and they may have missed his window. Gallardo doesn't intimidate hitters nibbling on the outside corner and Miranda did not look close to ready last year. Paxton may see a big jump in production, but until he puts it together I'm not sure we can believe that he will do it based on potential because we've heard that for years. Kuma was fine last year despite failing the physical that would have made him a Dodger, so that's a concern, but he's got some gems in that arm especially when he starts at home. Heston got that no hitter for SF, but didn't stick around for a reason and I don't think it's because of incredible rotation depth as they could have used it last season. So we move to the bullpen where Diaz was incredible but got a lot of work last season and from what I watched in the WBC. He's a stud who should be babied, especially off the heavy end of season workload last year when he was the only one who could get outs, but that'll put a lot of pressure on the rest of the bullpen. Cishek and Scrabble have done great things in the past, but need to show it again before they can be trusted. Fien was hidden in MIN and had some good outings and some very bad ones, but we'll see what he can do here. To me, Nick Vincent is just a guy and I would not want to rely on him to hold leads or hold tie games so I think that bullpen is a big concern that maybe needed to be addressed considering what they did with the lineup. Catchers should be solid, Cano is a HOFer and Nelly moving to DH probably reduces injury risk significantly. When he's not playing OF, though, I see a ton of outs with the other guys and that's a big concern (I thought HOU had some, but this is really bad). Seager has a really low BA, but good OBP, which tells me he's not getting a ton of hits that advance guys more than one base. If he has a big year, that probably means SEA is better than I expect. I like the Valencia addition because i think he can smoke the ball, but in a platoon with Vogelbach at 1B they are really sacrificing defense and possibly offense because of the lack of rhythm when you sit so often. Robbie isn't getting any younger, so that could see some really bad BABIP on the right side and maybe even some Cano DH-ing pushing Nelly into more RF duty complicating the injury risk for an aging body.

LAA seemed to go for it with some offseason moves trying not to waste Trout's prime, but I don't think that was a very smart decision. Moreno's ownership never seems to make smart moves, so that shouldn't be a surprise, but that may give us some value against them and that is music to my ears. Closer is up in the air right now with Huston Street missing almost all of last season and likely starting out on the DL. Bedrosian's got a good arm and is expected to have the first shot, but it's tough to know how a closer will do without seeing him do it. Bailey did a fine job closing last year as the stopgap when nobody else could do it, so that at least adds some depth there if Bedrosian struggles. Alvarez looks like the only LHP and Chavez is up-and-down, so there's some serious concerns there. Morin looks like he will need to get some big outs to keep leads or keep games close in the 7th and while he has the talent I'm not sure he'll live up to what's in that arm. The rotation has some good arms, but a lot of them have been injured recently. Who knows about Richards choice not to get TJ and what's going on with the arms of Heaney and Skaggs. Shoemaker can be really good at times so I think I'll trust that more than the few times he gets smacked around, but Nolasco is really hard to trust and I think Tropeano is terrible. This tells me they'll need to score a lot of runs and besides Trout and the corpse that is Pujols (who will still produce, that was a joke). I really like Calhoun, but Cron needs to have a big year for this team to be competitive. Maybin was great last year and I was surprised that the Tigers moved him, but there's a reason he's worn almost every cap in the big leagues over his career that isn't that old just yet. Revere can run, but can't get on base. Escobar seems to be good when things are going well and Espinosa may not hit .200 in the new league but could hit a bunch of HRs. The infield defense should be good with Escobar/Simmons/Espinosa, but I don't think all these pieces make a good enough team. They've certainly improved all over, but I'm a seller.

OAK is notoriously tough on visitors in the late-night cold and in that terrible park, but that's usually a bigger effect on the AL East. They need a good bullpen to win games because they don't score and play in the aforementioned cavernous park, but I'm not sure they have it. Madson appears to be the closer out of the gate, but we'll see if that continues because he was bad two years ago in KC (despite Yost continuing to use him in high-leverage situations like the moron he is). I like the Casilla signing as I think Bochy panicked on him too much last year, though he did blow more games than he ever really had before 2016. Doolittle has had arm trouble and that's a huge problem for a guy that exists to throw the ball by you only and Axford has been a journeyman since leaving MIL. Dull was good, Hendricks as well, so there are a bunch of arms back there to throw something at the wall and see if it sticks. The rotation is young and will likely be babied (i love this term i guess) all season. Cotton was a huge get from the LAD farm system in the Reddick trade, Manaea can be really tough to hit if he's on even vs RH and I thought Mengden was really good at times last year. Who knows what we'll see from Sonny Gray, but until he starts striking people out again i'm not sure I can trust him. Graveman also threw some great outings out there, but he lives on contact and that doesn't work in this day of MLB. The lineup is pretty bad and seems like the best case scenario is to get people on base and wait for a Khris Davis bomb. Those will come, but we'll see how many people get on for them and if there aren't many this team will be in the cellar yet again.

 

[GWarner27]

As of 3/22

RSW (AL, WS)
CLE 93.5 (375, 700)
BOS 92.5 (325, 550)
HOU 91.5 (500, 1200)
TOR 85.5 (1100, 2200)
SEA 85.5 (1100, 2500)
TEX 84.5 (1100, 2500)
NYY 82.5 (1200, 2500)
DET 82.5 (1400, 3300)
BAL 80.5 (1800, 3600)
LAA 79.5 (3300, 6600)
TB 78.5 (3300, 8000)
KC 75.5 (2500, 5000)
MIN 74.5 (6600, 15k)
OAK 73.5 (8000, 15k)
CHW 69.5 (6600, 10k)

Division
BOS -135
TOR +350
NYY +650
BAL +800
TB +1600


CLE -350
DET +475
KC +1200
MIN +2000
CHW +4000


HOU +115
SEA +300
TEX +325
LAA +900
OAK +2500

 

[B.A.R.]

Despite the division, I think Detroit will be selling come July.

And the outfield looks to be just a step or two above disaster.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for posting all that too, lotta work there.

 

[GWarner27]

Thanks for posting all that too, lotta work there.

gotta find something else to do with NCAAB coming to a screeching halt. Wish i had done this earlier, but thanks :shake:

 

[GWarner27]

NL thoughts:
WSH is going with a closer by committee after trading for Melancon and losing him in free agency to SF. That is a scary thing, but it looks like Glover is going to get the first try with Kelley waiting in the wings. Treinen was good in the 8th last year for a while and if his sinker on can be reliable, plus the addition of Joe Blanton who was very good in LA last year. Lefty looks like tough to trust Oliver Perez and also some youth in Solis, but maybe Romero emerges as well so that's a fair amount of lefty arms compared to other teams. The rotation hinges on the health of Strasburg, though Scherzer is always gonna be there and produce like a Cy candidate. Behind them is the always inconsistent Gio Gonzalez, believe it or not a very dependable guy in Tanner Roark and some youth with Joe Ross and A.J. Cole. Cole seems to be a prospect and will be brought in to replace injury or ineffectiveness, but no Giolito limits how flexible they can be and I don't think anybody thinks Rizzo is a good GM. Losing the Buffalo was huge and will affect the offense quite a bit, but Harper should have a better year if he can stay healthy. I am a pretty big seller on Adam Eaton and the amazing amount of talent Rizzo gave away to get an average player, but beyond him is again Jayson Werth who makes too much money to move and Zimmerman who looks like he is losing his everyday job. The lineup seems like it will be a ton better vs RHP because of Harper/Murphy/Lind/Eaton being on their preferred side, but I wonder how the lineup will do vs LHP. If Zimmerman starts playing in a platoon his numbers may improve, but I'm not sure they will mean what they would if he played everyday. I do really like Trea Turner, but beyond him there seems to be a ton of average players on the roster. Good for depth and flexibility in the NL, but for how much the market likes this team I'm not sure I see it (also wouldn't be a stretch to see Dusty Baker blow some games)

NYM has to deal with a Familia suspension with unknown length and I assume Reed will close. He had big trouble in that position before, but seemed to have a resurgence and may fill in nicely for the time being. I doubt he keeps the job long-term, however. There is a ton of depth in the rotation, but it's a little complicated knowing how Collins will go and I truly wonder if a six-man rotation may be worth it for them, though it probably complicates the roster too much to do it. Regardless, the rotation should be good and can potentially cover the Familia absence by getting a lot of outs. Reducing the hole left by Familia will fall heavily on Salas and Robles, who have shown they can do it. It's hard to know how bullpen arms will fare from year to year, but there seems to be a bunch of LHP depth in the pen as well with Blevins, Gilmartin and Edgin who is coming off an arm injury. Hitting is always going to be an issue for this team, which is a concern because Cespedes does not have much protection. There are also a ton of LH hitters on the 40-man, which is a concern vs LHP similar to the other division favorite WSH.

MIA has to overcome the death of its heart and soul, which forced the hand for some pitching moves in the offseason. LHP in the bullpen seems to be an issue with only Cervenka on the current 40-man if Locke isn't converted. That is a concern with the HEAVY LH lineups on the two favorites, so maybe this MIA team is already drawing dead in close games late (it is fortunate that division play doesn't heat up until the end of the year and maybe MIA will have made some moves by then). They did do a bunch to improve the RHP side of things yanking half the BOS bullpen with Tazawa and Ziegler, but beyond that Barraclough may be emerging as a stud, Wittgren and McGowan are good to eat innings and keep deficits from multiplying and Phelps/Ramos are extremely trustworthy. The rotation is a bit of a question as mentioned earlier, but Straily was incredible towards the end of the year in a bandbox like CIN and now moves to a huge park. Conley has the talent, but needs to get more consistent. Chen is competitive, but not great and then Volquez probably needed to get back to the NL because he wasn't producing in the AL. Koehler finished the year well and has an arm that deserves a spot in the rotation if he can keep from walking people. The 5th spot if not Volquez's seems to be Despaigne, who looks like a long man, Locke or Nicolino: none of which I'd want to rely upon for too much. So it sounds like there are plenty of long men and maybe Locke is moved to the bullpen to give an extra LHP as an experiment before they look to the minors or for a trade. In terms of the lineup, Stanton is never healthy and can't be trusted to be. Realmuto looks like a good hitter and Ellis will hopefully add some smarts to the pitching staff because he certainly can't be relied upon to hit. The rest of the lineup is fine, not great but not terrible, so maybe this is a team to look at in-division when they start a LHP because that will heavily impact the lineups they see.

ATL did a ton of work in the offseason and has won multiple trades going back a couple years. I'm not sure they're trying to compete for the division, but they did make some moves to be more competitive for the new ballpark, etc. It seems clear they want Vizcaino to win the closer job, but it looks like Johnson's at the beginning of the year and that may be good because Vizcaino's arm will be more useful against the heart of the lineup in the 7th or 8th if it falls that way. Paco Rodriguez is probably the top LHP in the pen, which may see mixed reviews but I liked what I saw from him in spurts while he was with the Dodgers. Krol is another LHP, so they at least have more bullpen southpaws than MIA, but he's not someone that will strike fear in opponents. The rotation seemed to be where the offseason moves focused and I like what they did. ATL took a flier on Jaime Garcia who is never healthy, but did put in a full season last year. He's a guy that will keep them in it, but won't fire too many 8 IP gems. Colon will eat innings and is worth a look as a big dog, Dickey's knuckler also worth a look as a big dog and then Teheran will hopefully regain his ability to get lefties out because if so, he can be the ace. The youth in Wisler's arm is a big deal, plus depth with Folty and possibly Collmenter who can flip between longman and starter if needed. Nobody is incredible in this rotation, but there is a lot of "solid" in there. As usual, they won't get much from catcher and they have only three OFs on the 40-man roster so that's certainly going to change. Everybody seems to love Swanson, who they stole from Arizona, Freeman is incredible to the opposite field and DatDudeBP never seems to get any respect despite being a consistent bat. He's not going to crush the ball over the wall too often, but he plays great defense and I like what he can contribute. Maybe Garcia turns into the power hitter some have said he is destined to be, in any event there is a fair amount of upside for this team.

PHI has been rebuilding, but did go out and get Buchholz who may do well in the NL. Gomez is gonna start the year as the closer, though it probably won't last to long as he'll cede the role to Neris (most likely) or Benoit. Those arms will help in the late innings in any event, but THEY DO NOT HAVE A LHP I'VE EVER HEARD OF ON THE 40-MAN WHO LOOKS TO BE IN THE PEN (!!) That is a huge concern considering the two giants in this division are so lefty-reliant, but maybe Joely Rodriguez is the next Billy Wagner? The rotation has the stud Velasquez, Hellboy who surprisingly stuck around, the aforementioned Buchholz, then Nola and Eickhoff, too. Behind them are Asher/Eflin/Morgan so there are plenty of options, though they aren't very good. The lineup has holes, as expected with a team rebuilding, but Franco has a bit of protection with Tommy Joseph and then Odubel may be primed for a good year. The team won't be good, but may have some good stretches.

CHC is off a long postseason run that saw a bunch of extra pitches and physical exertion, but hey it ended a 108-year drought so I guess they'll take it. Davis's arm trouble last year is a concern for me, but if healthy he will lock down games as always and he had to pass the physical to get signed/they'll be careful with him. Rondon is a fine backup closer, Duensing could regain the success he had in MIN a few summers ago and will be a really tough LHP, Grimm and Strop can get outs, Montgomery is best in the bullpen but can add some flexibility in the rotation if needed and Edwards Jr. seems to be a guy they want to use in high-leverage situations going forward. The rotation will be good as I expect Arrieta to bounce back, Lester seems to not care (and neither does the league) about throwing to 1B and it doesn't affect his performance, Hendricks probably won't be as successful as he was last year but who knows, Lackey is always gonna fight and until he's done I expect he'll be good and then I don't know who will be 5th right now but who cares? Maddon is great, though a bit overrated now, and the lineup is incredible so this team will be a juggernaut and will have huge prices as well all season.

STL devil magic is alive and well, team should be competitive as always. Oh looks solidly in the closer role and deserves it for his performance last year, but Siegrist is a very good 8th inning arm and looks entrenched there as well. The Reyes loss hurts, but Rosenthal is a wildcard who could come back to being what he was and be a huge gift. I'm a little hesitant to say it's likely because he's Doolittle like, though a little safer on the right side, but he lives on throwing the ball by the batter and that has a limited shelf life. Duke is another lefty who can get batters out, maybe Wacha figures in here as well after I thought they decided last year that he's not going to start again? Speaking of the rotation, Waino probably has a better year but he does not deserve the huge prices any longer. I'm unsure about when Lance Lynn is going to be back off TJ, Leake can't K people so he's in jeopardy every start of getting roughed up by the BABIP monster, but CMart is the best arm they have if he can stay healthy. Maybe Wacha does stick in the rotation because beyond Lyons, who I don't have high expectations for, they don't any depth here. The bullpen is very good as I haven't even mentioned Bowman, Broxton, Cecil who may be better now that he's not in the AL but we can't be sure. So the lineup will have to make up for the lack of SP depth, which I'm a little skeptical about tbqh. Piscotty is great, but isn't gonna drive in 100. Pham and Grichuk are part of the home grown guys that haven't made it and I fear Fowler will not be as good without the everyday it's Halloween monsters behind him like he had in Wrigley. Carpenter is great, Diaz may be the best hitter on the squad and Adams is supposedly in shape now. There are questions here about the rotation and the lineup, but in close games they will be great.

PIT seems to be on the downturn with Cutch's disastrous 2016 and now being moved to RF with trade rumors because they don't seem to want to re-sign the franchise guy according to everyone just a few years ago. I'm fine with Tony Watson closing, but it seems silly that there is so much talk about Daniel Hudson taking over when he was the frozen rope king in Arizona. He's got stuff, but everyone in MLB has stuff so I hope he's just an 8th inning guy for their sake. I think Hughes will be better, Rivero was a great get when they realized Melancon wouldn't return and he will be a very important left arm for them with Bastardo behind him for early in games. Nicasio may be better as well, so with all these arms I think I like this bullpen. I basically have to because the hitters haven't been what they should be and there isn't much power in the lineup. That's a big deal in today's MLB, even with the size of PNC. They have speed, but don't run too much, so they will have to outpitch people. I don't like Cole and think he's so overrated, then the youth is there with Taillon/Brault/Glasnow with only Taillon being somewhat trustable at this point. They took a flier on Hutchison, who could pay dividends, then Kuhl and LeBlanc hanging out there with Nova having to pull serious weight if this team will be good. They have options with the rotation, but it looks to me that they will be banking on winning games in the bullpen.

MIL seems to be a media darling despite rebuilding. Davies seems to be the ace and then there are a bunch of over the hill guys filling the other slots. The Thornburg loss was really big to the point where I can't even explain what he was last year and I see some problems on the horizon. Neftali Feliz has the arm for the role, but has been so inconsistent since the arm injury. Knebel has an important role and that's a bit of a concern, even if he did go to a great school, but beyond him I don't know too much about that bullpen. That's scary, as well as a rotation that looks like Davies, Jungmann (also a great school) and Anderson pitching to contact, Nelson who has good days and terrible ones with no in between, Milone who will catch a ton of HRs or popups and whatever Guerra/Peralta give you. They will have to score runs to win, shocker, but especially this year. Seems to be a ton of retreads so I don't really see it.

CIN finally lost BP and that's sad as now Votto seems to be all alone. Mesoraco is another who can't stay healthy, Hamilton can't get on base or else he'd steal 1015352031315 bases a year. Duvall is a power threat to give Votto some help, I do like Peraza and Suarez a bit. The bullpen appears to be Iglesias closing and possibly eating a couple innings, but maybe Cingrani if there are some lefties coming in late. The rotation is poor, though I like Finnegan a ton despite the tough ballpark to pitch in and Feldman starting Opening Day is just a perfect statement on what that team will be this year.

LAD spends the most, but consistently gets little from it. Jansen is lights out, behind him is no more Joe Blanton so that may be where the piece fractures. Romo may slot in there and though he's probably going to be hated for making that jump, I think his frisbee slider will still play well. There are so many names to discuss in the bullpen and some are good arms, but I'm not in love with it. If Kershaw stays healthy, he will be a huge favorite all the time and him to Romo to Jansen doesn't seem likely to lose too often. Hill's health is also a concern, especially because he hasn't been able to complete seasons, but they will win games when he starts as well. There are also a ton of arms who could potentially start highlighted by Maeda and Ryu who is on the comeback trail. The rotation is deep and if those are the top four they could very good. I love the Forsythe acquisition and the lineup is deep everywhere also. Will be a great team, but there are questions on what they do in the playoffs as always.

SF is a team I follow very closely as I love their pbp guys and they are usually the west coast game I watch if I don't have another reason to watch another one. The Melancon signing was great and I think he solves what was a big problem for them last year. No Romo and no Casilla were big losses no matter what people say, and now Smith's arm troubles have appeared again so they may have some vulnerability there. Kontos is the long guy and I don't think you want him in the 8th though he is trustworthy, but Strickland has too many bad outings to be relied upon consistently. It must be a Gearrin/Law/Osich situation and that is a bit concerning, but SF seems to be betting on youth. Bum could have taken steps back in the years after huge usage, but I think he'll be great until he isn't and we need to expect it. After him is Cueto, who has his struggles but is very good for the most part. Cain throws meatballs, but Moore is getting further from TJ and looked like his old self in spurts recently so maybe he has a big year. Samardizja has so much movement he hurts Posey's left hand when he catches him, so that's a good sign for a No. 4 and Suarez is the only other possibility in the 5th spot besides Cain. That sounds like a problem that will need to be figured out, along with the Smith injury, so there's some things that need to be done by Sabean here. The defense will always be great as that's one of the main tenets of the organization, but they don't look like a team that will score 8 runs a game in any location so this looks like the Dodgers division to lose. I'm sure I will be taking the + in those matchups, however

COL is another offseason darling, but much bigger and I don't see it. Ottavino is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he's the closer type and I'm not sure he can be reasonably relied upon to keep leads for them. They basically have the lineup of relievers past their primes and while they were able to do it once in their careers, I don't see it happening this year and especially not in altitude in a park where no big hitters want to sit. The rotation is where all the problems start and, to be fair, that is improving. Anderson has a tricky delivery, but I wonder how he'll do when the book gets deeper. Bettis is dealing with cancer treatment and I hope he gets past it, but will be a hit to rotation depth. Jon Gray seems to have the arm, but hasn't put it together yet and who knows if he will at Coors. Chatwood another good pitcher who can really put up great numbers away from Coors, but again they play 81 games there. Rusin and Lyles being 4 and 5 potentially is a scary, scary thing so as usual the rotation depth is not here. They will have to outscore people and then hope it's enough that their bullpen won't give it away, not sure that happens. They can certainly hit, even with newcomer Ian Desmond missing about a month with a hand injury, but I question how he will do defensively at 1B. They don't have room for him in the OF barring injury without the DH, but they are very solid across all hitting positions so that's what they're built to do. I'm not a buyer, especially with a young catcher who needs to be able to help his staff and I don't see it.

ARI finally got rid of Dave Stewart, but LaRussa may be just as big of a problem for the growth of the franchise. Rodney seems to be closing by default as there aren't other names here, but I guess Bartlett could challenge him at some point despite his own struggles in that role last season. Delgado looks like another important arm, which is a concern, so a lot will fall on that rotation. Robbie Ray struck out the world last year and I think he has a better year, but Corbin needs to step up and pitch to his talent. Bradley has been inconsistent, but has tools if he can avoid getting hit in the head by batted balls. Greinke should have a much better year with a better bill of health, and honestly who the heck knows what Taijuan Walker will give. He should enjoy the NL more than the AL, but moving from an AL pitcher's park to the 2nd best hitters park in the NL makes me wonder how much of a jump that'll be? SEA essentially gave up on him in the trade, which they make dumb decisions often, but maybe they got this one right. So they will have to get good starts and outslug opponents with that bullpen trying to close games out. I don't think we can trust Pollock to stay healthy, but Goldy is a consistent performer and does everything you need. Why they have four catchers on the 40-man I'll never understand, but they probably get a big year from Jake Lamb and have a lot of flexibility in the lineup with all the guys who can play multiple positions. For their sake, hopefully Tomas continues his end of year power surge and they also don't lose another year from David Peralta who seems to be a good player when he's actually available. Should see some high-scoring games as usual here, but if they don't take big leads they won't be able to hold onto them.

SD is a disaster of a franchise and will need to win games 3-2 or they will lose 100+ games. They can do it at home, though Petco is getting smaller by the offseason and that probably helps opponents more than it does the home team. Maurer was closer by default last year and probably sticks there, not sure what Capps will be off injury but he does cheat with that delivery so maybe that gives SD some intrinsic value. Buchter and Hand are fine LHPs, but the bullpen seems to be better than it should be because of it's home park and I don't see that changing. Meanwhile, the rotation has some upside with Perdomo who seems like he could be nasty if he puts it together. Behind him are journeymen Jhoulys Chacin, Cahill, Cosart and Clayton Richard with Jered Weaver trying to restart in the NL. Not a lot to like there, yikes. But maybe the lineup will make up for those pitchers?!!?!? Ha, I feel even worse for Don Orsillo being wrongfully fired from NESN to head to baseball purgatory here. Myers looks like the best hitter with Schimpf hoping to build on last year's trajectory and then the hype on Renfroe. Jankowski is probably going to have the green light to run at will because the team won't score otherwise. That's probably enough, this team will be very bad

 

[GWarner27]

As of 3/23


RSW (NL, WS):
WSH 91.5 (500, 1000)
NYM 88 (750, 1200)
MIA 76.5 (3600, 6600)
ATL 74.5 (5000, 10k)
PHI 73 (6600, 15k)
CHC 96.5 (185, 450)
StL 83.5 (1400, 2500)
PIT 82.5 (2500, 5000)
MIL 70.5 (10k, 25k)
CIN 69.5 (10k, 20k)
LAD 94.5 (375, 700)
SF 88.5 (700, 1200)
COL 80.5 (2500, 5000)
ARI 77.5 (6600, 10k)
SD 65.5 (10k, 20k)


WSH -150
NYM +170
MIA +1600
ATL +2000
PHI +3300


CHC -500
STL +700
PIT +850
MIL +10k
CIN +10k


LAD -185
SF +225
COL +1000
ARI +1800
SD +15000

 

[xyzky]

I have the Rockies coming out of the West as my sleeper...Already bet them on the long shot WS title back in Nov. @ 100-1

Not a bad start...Would be very interesting to see them in the playoffs this year.

 

[GWarner27]

think there's a lot of good fortune in the COL record so far, but the bullpen has been great and the lineup will only get better. Depends how long they can overcome their awful rotation

 

[cubsker]

i really like houston's lineup. not sure on the health of mccullers, but their pitching should be decent. rangers sure have owned them the last two years though, but they're my pick from the AL. Indians will be right there as well. BoSox look to be the class of the East with Price/Sale/Porcello. I think they'll feel that Ortiz loss though. Without running any numbers, here's my instinct picks.

West: Astros
Cent: Injuns
East: RedSox
WC: Rangers, Mariners

Not much has changed in the NL. Cubs and Dodgers still the best two teams. Other 3 I list have a puncher's chance in the playoffs. Giants could be real good if Matt Moore is the guy that showed up last fall for an entire season. I still like how the Cubs match up against LA in a playoff series. The Mets still don't hit enough and Dusty is still managing the Nats.

East: Nats
Cent: Cubs
West: Dodgers
WC: Giants, Muts

AL: Astros
NL: Cubs
WS: Astros in 7, repeating is hard.

hit all 6 div winners, tho I'm not sure thats much of an accomplishment. god awful wild card picks. astros still alive.

solid rockies pick that was in this thread.

 

[B.A.R.]

Sexy.

 

[B.A.R.]

Despite the division, I think Detroit will be selling come July.

And the outfield looks to be just a step or two above disaster.

Haha. Yeah!

 

[cubsker]

I've won a combined $0 in futures on my Cubs in 2016, Stros in 2017, and Clemson last year in CFB.