MLB 2016 - Projected Lines and Picks by Underdog Chance

[Underdogchance]

Hi guys, I am new in baseball forum, some of you know me from NHL forum, where I post my plays and projected lines. I will share my projected lines and my picks here in one topic.

About Projected Lines. I have created my model, which shows me raw probabilities of the outcomes. I convert those probabilities into odds.

Money management:
My starting bankroll (11.3.2016) is 10.000 Units. I finished my NHL math model late in the season, so I started later and I am currently sitting at +650.71 Units. I have only one budget for all sports (MLB and NHL are the only sports I bet right now). My budget is not big right now and I will use progressive strategy. I will recalculate my risks every day. They will vary from 0.5% to 5% of current bankroll. I will start with 2% of current bankroll per bet at the start of the season. Later my risks will depend on odds and my projected lines with other factors included.

I use EU odds, but I will write US lines here. I don't bet 130 units on -130 lines. I always play the amount I write.
All odds are taken from Pinnaclesports.com, so we don't get into "where did you get those odds" discussion.

I will show:
Profit in Units
Yield - profit/total risked
Picks played (because win% is useless information)

Pick example:
Boston -115 (130 units = 3%)
In this case I risked 130 units to win 113 units this is 3% of current bankroll

That's it.
I wish you profitable season. I hope I will do well too! :tiphat:

 

[wizardofodd]

GL. even thought i dont play NHL, your thread there is great to follow.

will be doing the same here!

GL this year!!!:cheers3:

 

[Underdogchance]

@wizardofodd :cheers3: thanks man. I hope you will enjoy this thread too.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

good luck this season, UC

:shake:

 

[Fondybadger]

Best of luck this season

 

[bloodhound]

I look forward to having U in bases
BOL on the season

 

[Underdogchance]

@CollegeKingRex & @Fondybadger @bloodhound thanks guys :shake: , let's start with baseball.

SUNDAY - 3/4/2016

MLB 2016: +0.00 Units
YIELD: +0.00%
PICKS PLAYED: 0
-----------------------

Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman) +107 (213 Units = 2%)

Good Luck to all!

 

[GWarner27]

are your projections based on closing lines? Curious what you have for PHI-CIN tomorrow

 

[Underdogchance]

are your projections based on closing lines? Curious what you have for PHI-CIN tomorrow

I forgot to mention this. My projected lines will be out at the end of April, when I collect enough data.

are your projections based on closing lines?

My projected lines are not based on closing lines, because they are independent. They show me probabilities of the outcomes in one game, no matter what closing lines are. When I make predictions (which is another thing) I compare my projected lines with bookmakers lines, so my picks and the stakes are dependent of lines.

so (one more time, from my NHL forum)...
When Team A plays against Team B, if we take an example in MLB, is one event with couple of possible outcomes (A wins, B wins, rain, extra inn, ...whatever you like). But let's make an example for moneyline with two possible outcomes (Team A wins, team B wins). My question is what is the chance that Team A will win and what is the question that Team B will win. When we bet on moneyline, there are only two outcomes (Team A wins, Team B wins). Some people will say, that the question should be, who will win? But this is wrong. In such a events, any team can win, the only difference are the chances of one team to win a game and chances of another team.


So, I want to know what is the "chance" or probability, that team A will win. And what is the chance or probability, that team B will win. In this case we have two possible outcomes:
1. Team A wins
2. Team B wins


Nothing else. At the end of the day in MLB, we will have a winner. Right? So, sum of probabilities is 100%. For example, Team A has a 60% and team B has 40%, sum is 100%. Thats all. And my math model shows me what are those probabilities, nothing more, nothing less.


Let's go further...


Those probabilities have some price, value or whatever you call it. If I want to bet on a team, which has 50% of chance, the fair price (if we convert probabilities into odds or lines) is 2.00 (european odds) and +100 (american odds). This means, that the other probability (in this case), for other team is also 50% and the same odds. This also mean, that if you put $100 on one team and at the same time on other team. You will not lose any money and you will not win any money. Right? ($100 on Team A +100, $100 on team B at the same time, profit/loss=0).


However, the bookmakers "invented" margins. And you will have for 50%-50% game odds of -110 vs -110. So, you have to put $10 more for $100 of profit. There are bookmakers who will have bigger margins and also bookmakers, who will have lower margins. Some bookmakers will offer you -105 vs -105 for example. But this is not that important right now.


The important question for me is what is the price for my event. What they give me, what they offer me? If my math model shows, that Team A has a 50% chance to win a game, I would make this line at +100 (or 2.00 eu odds). This is something what I would expect. This is the true reflection (for me and my math model) what true odds should be. Or if you want i want to know, what is the price for my probability of this game.


If bookmakers give me +130, that team A will win (in our example), this mean, that I will get +$30 more, than what I would expect. And this is good.


So...
1. My math model shows me probabilities.
2. One game is an event and "something" will happen at the end. Sum of everything at the end is 100%.
3. There are only 2 possible outcomes (in this example). Probability (Team A wins) + Probability (Team B wins) = 100%.
4. I convert those probabilities into odds/lines
5. When I have my own lines, I see the price, which I (at least) expect from bookmaker
6. I try to bet on a team (outcome of an event), where someone (bookmaker) will pay me more, than I would expect from my calculated probabilities.


I hope I answered on your question.

 

[Underdogchance]

MONDAY - 4/4/2016

MLB 2016: +227.91 Units
YIELD: +107.00%
PICKS PLAYED: 1
-----------------------

Cleveland Indians (Kluber) -103 (223 Units = 2%)

Good Luck to all!

 

[STEED]

GL bro :shake:

 

[scarf31]

Best of Luck Underdog Chance

 

[Underdogchance]

@STEED @scarf31 :shake:

 

[Underdogchance]

TUESDAY - 5/4/2016

MLB 2016: +227.91 Units
YIELD: +107.00%
PICKS PLAYED: 1
-----------------------

Cleveland Indians (Kluber) -104 (223 Units = 2%)
(One more time, because it was postponed on monday, the line dropped little bit, but I still like it)

 

[jcpicos]

buena suerte amigo :shake:

 

[jcpicos]

good luck buddy :shake:

 

[Play2win]

bon copain chance

 

[Underdogchance]

@jpicos @Play2win , thanks guys. :cheers3:

 

[Underdogchance]

adding (Tuesday - final card):
San Diego Padres (Shields) +110 (223 Units = 2%)
Texas Rangers (Perez) -104 (223 Units = 2%)

 

[Elbutre88]

gl amigo and go rangers.

 

[Underdogchance]

@Elbutre88 Thanks man. I wish you positive season too. Rangers had their chances yesterday, but they couldn't score with runners in scoring positions.

I went 0-3 yesterday, but I went 4-0 in NHL and because I have only one budget and I recalculate my risks every day I made profit yesterday

What I am working heavily is to focus on numbers and i want to stay away from intuition plays, because season is long and is hard to keep constantly good handicapping only with informations and intuition. I speak for myself.
I always wait until month may, when I drop out my projected lines. After yesterday, when i went 0-3 I put numbers in my math model, where I put projected performance for pitchers and teams for this season. It gave me some nice numbers and what is very interesting, is that most of my lines are pretty similar to those from bookmakers and I will share them with you. I am still little bit sceptic with this, but for me is better than taking picks based by intuition.

For the risks, I will use my model, which calculate the amount of money, which I place on one bet and it depends on bookmakers line. It was very successful in NHL season, when I used it (41-39, +1744, 26 Units, yield:18.82%).
I hope my numbers will help someone and we will see tomorrow what will be my tonight's record :tiphat:

WEDNESDAY - 6/4/2016

MLB 2016: -441.09 Units
YIELD: -50.01%
AVG RISK: 220.5 Units
AVG LINE: +102
PICKS PLAYED: 4

-------------------------------
MY PROJECTED LINES FOR TODAY:
Samardzija 51.97% San Francisco Giants -108
Jungmann 48.03% Milwaukee Brewers +108


Chatwood 44.71% Colorado Rockies +124
Corbin 55.28% Arizona Diamondbacks -124


Leake 46.56% St Louis Cardinals +115
NIcasio 53.44% Pittsburgh Pirates -115


Strasburg 52.93% Washington Nationals -112
Norris 47.07% Atlanta Braves +112


NOLA 43.50% Philadelphia Phillies +130
Finnegan 56.50% Cincinnati Reds -130


Maeda 51.01% Los Angeles Dodgers -104
Cashner 48.99% San Diego Padres +104


Happ 47.35% Toronto Blue Jays +111
Morre 52.64% Tampa Bay Rays -111


Miley 45.54% Seattle Mariners +120
Lewis 54.46% Texas Rangers -120


Bucholz 45.16% Boston Red Sox +121
Carrasco 54.84% Cleveland Indians -121


Mchugh 42.34% Houston Astros +136
Pineda 57.65% NY Yankees -136


Gibson 46.60% Minnesota Twins +115
Gallardo 53.40% Baltimore Orioles -115


Rondon 45.28% Chicago White Sox +121
Gray 54.72% Oakland Athletics -121


Sanchez 43.83% Detroit Tigers +128
Fernandez 56.17% Miami Marlins -128
----------
TODAY'S PLAYS:
Colorado Rockies (Chatwood) +146 (115 Units = 1.02%)
Atlanta Braves (Norris) +182 (300 Units = 2.65%)
San Diego Padres (Cashner) +120 (110 Units = 0.97%)
Tampa Bay Rays (Moore) +111 (170 Units = 1.50%)
Texas Rangers (Lewis) -103 (125 Units = 1.11%)

Good Luck to everyone!

 

[Underdogchance]

THURSDAY - 7/4/2016

MLB 2016: -624.49 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: -50.01%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 10909.77 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 190.22 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +118
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 9
-------------------------
Morton 46.31% Philadelphia +116Stephenson 53.69% Cincinnati -116


Conley 45.55% Miami +120
Roark 54.45% Washington -120


Wood 47.39% LA Dodgers +111
Peavy 52.61% SF Giants -111


Lackey 50.26% Cubs -101
De La Rosa 49.74% Arizona +101


Latos 46.89% White Sox +113
Graveman 53.10% Oakland -113


Fiers 47.57% Houston +110
Eovaldi 52.43% NY Yankees -110


Kelly 45.44% Boston +120
Salazar 54.56% Cleveland -120


Hughes 44.00% Minnesota +127
Jimenez 55.99% Baltimore -127


Holland 46.41% Texas +115
Santiago 53.59% LA Angels -115
-----------
Arizona Diamondbacks (De La Rosa) +132 (190 Units = 1.74%)

Good Luck to all!

 

[STEED]

GL today boss

 

[Underdogchance]

GL today boss

Thanks STEED! :shake:

 

[Underdogchance]

FRIDAY - 8/4/2016

MLB 2016: -819.49 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: -43.09%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 10719.77 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 190.20 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +122
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 10
---------
My Projected Lines:
Philadelphia Phillies Eickhoff 30.60% Philadelphia +227New York Mets deGrom 69.40% NY Mets -227


San Diego Padres Rea 46.75% San Diego +129
Colorado Rockies Lyles 53.24% Colorado -129


Pittsburgh Pirates Liriano 61.01% Pittsburgh -147
Cincinnati Reds Simon 38.98% Cincinnati +147


St Louis Cardinals Garcia 55.39% St Louis -124
Atlanta Braves Wisler 44.60% Atlanta +124


Chicago Cubs Hammel 57.22% Cubs -128
Arizona Diamondbacks Ray 42.78% Arizona +128


Los Angeles Dodgers Stripling 49.07% LA Dodgers +104
San Francico Giants Cain 50.93% SF Giants -104


New York Yankees Severino 51.30% NY Yankees +103
Detroit Tigers Zimmerman 48.70% Detroit -103


Cleveland Indians Salazar 53.56% Cleveland -111
Chicago White Sox Danks 46.43% White Sox +111


Tampa Bay Rays Archer 55.15% Tampa Bay -116
Baltimore Orioles Tillman 44.84% Baltimore +116


Minnesota Twins Santana 44.12% Minnesota +132
Kansas City Royals Ventura 55.88% Kansas -132


Oakland Athletics Surkamp 48.37% Oakland +113
Seattle Mariners Walker 51.63% Seattle -113


Houston Astros Feldman 55.24% Houston -114
Milwaukee Brewers Anderson 44.75% Milwaukee +114
-----------
Atlanta Braves (Wisler) +141 (110 Units = 1.03%)
LA Dodgers (Stripling) +112 (90 Units = 0.84%)
Oakland (Surkamp) +147 (230 Units = 2.15%)
NY Yankees (Severino) +107 (50 Units = 0.47%)
-----------
Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

I didn't have time to post projected lines yesterday...I was working on my math model and from now on injuries are included.

SUNDAY - 10/4/2016

MLB 2016: -731.39 Units
LAST PICKS: +88.1 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: -30.70%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 10807.87 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 170.14 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +122
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 14

Pitcher Win% Moneyline
Yankees Tanaka 46.47% NY Yankees +127
Tigers Verlander 53.53% Detroit -127


Marlins Koehler 43.59% Miami +138
Nationals Ross 56.41% Washington -138


Red Sox Wright 47.52% Boston +122
Blue Jays Estrada 52.48% Toronto -122


Pirates Locke 59.26% Pittsburgh -133
Reds Melville 40.73% Cincinnati +133


Indians Tomlin 47.06% Cleveland +119
White Sox Quintana 52.94% White Sox -119


Dodgers Kazmir 50.00% LA Dodgers +104
Giants Cueto 50.00% SF Giants -104


Rays Odorizzi 52.00% Tampa Bay -108
Orioles Worley 48.00% Baltimore +108


Cardinals Wainwright 55.22% St Louis -116
Braves Perez 44.78% Atlanta +116


Phillies Hellickson 34.10% Philadelphia +202
Mets Harvey 65.90% NY Mets -202


Astros Keuchel 55.58% Houston -113
Brewers Nelson 44.42% Milwaukee +113


Twins Nolasco 48.66% Minnesota +112
Royals Volquez 51.33% Kansas -112


Cubs Arrieta 67.32% Cubs -193
Diamondbacks Miller 32.67% Arizona +193


Padres Shields 28.43% San Diego +293
Rockies Bettis 71.56% Colorado -293


Rangers Perez 45.70% Texas +128
Angels Weaver 54.30% LA Angels -128


Athletics Bassitt 43.82% Oakland +138
Mariners Hernandez 56.18% Seattle -138
--------------------
Detroit Tigers (Verlander) -115 (120 Units = 1.11%)
Pittsburgh Pirates (Locke) -118 (135 Units = 1.35%)
Atlanta Braves (Perez) +151 (230 Units = 2.13%)
Philadelphia Phillies (Hellickson) +241 (115 Units = 1.06%)
Milwaukee Brewers (Nelson) +146 (230 Units = 2.13%)
Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) +138 (190 Units = 1.76%)
Cubs (Arrieta) -174 (135 Units = 1.25%)
LA Angels (Weaver) -113 (135 Units = 1.25%)
Seattle Mariners (Bassitt) +168 (160 Units = 1.48%)
-------
Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

Oakland, not Seattle of course

 

[kdog]

Most of mine are pretty close to yours UC. Colorado Rockies -293 is a head scratcher though. Even without accounting for increased Padre offensive production at Coors I don't see how it could be that high.

 

[Underdogchance]

Most of mine are pretty close to yours UC. Colorado Rockies -293 is a head scratcher though. Even without accounting for increased Padre offensive production at Coors I don't see how it could be that high.

Thanks for your comment. My model showed those numbers. Yesterday I made some improvements and Colorado has the highest home field advantage in league in last couple of years. The difference when they play at home and away.

At the end of the day, when the lineups were out, Colorado was still -253 and San Diego +253. I am working most of the time when lineups are out and the lines changes little bit. I quit my job on 31.may and then I will have more time and will update lines more often...Still, I like what I did and I hope for positive MLB season.

 

[Underdogchance]

Detroit Tigers (Verlander) -115 (120 Units = 1.11%)Postponed
Pittsburgh Pirates (Locke) -118 (135 Units = 1.35%)L
Atlanta Braves (Perez) +151 (230 Units = 2.13%)L
Philadelphia Phillies (Hellickson) +241 (115 Units = 1.06%)W
Milwaukee Brewers (Nelson) +146 (230 Units = 2.13%)W
Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) +138 (190 Units = 1.76%)L
Cubs (Arrieta) -174 (135 Units = 1.25%)W
LA Angels (Weaver) -113 (135 Units = 1.25%)W
Oakland Athletics (Bassitt) +168 (160 Units = 1.48%)W

+523.58 Units
I would also play Colorado,because my projected line and bookmakers lines were totally different. but the lines were still not out and then I had to go to work (yes, unfortunately I have to work on Sunday too).

 

[Underdogchance]

MONDAY - 11/4/2016

MLB 2016: -207.81 Units
LAST PICKS: +523.58 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: -5.60%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 1331.45 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 161.39 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +125
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 21

Pirates Niese 42.93% Pittsburgh +149 2.49
Tigers Verlander 57.06% Detroit -149 1.67


Orioles Gallardo 34.43% Baltimore +206 3.06
Red Sox Price 65.56% Boston -206 1.49


Padres Cashner 45.29% San Diego +126 2.26
Phillies Nola 54.71% Philadelphia -126 1.80


White Sox Quintana 55.89% White Sox -119 1.84
Twins Gibson 44.11% Minnesota +119 2.19


Brewers Jungmann 35.08% Milwaukee +205 3.05
Cardinals Wacha 64.92% St Louis -205 1.49


Braves Norris 34.29% Atlanta +205 3.05
Nationals Scherzer 65.71% Washington -205 1.49


Marlins Cosart 42.62% Miami +140 2.40
Mets Matz 57.38% NY Mets -140 1.71


Reds Finnegan 31.95% Cincinnati +228 3.28
Cubs Lester 68.04% Cubs -228 1.44


Royals Young 44.77% Kansas +132 2.32
Astros McHugh 55.22% Houston -132 1.76


Angels Tropeano 48.85% LA Angels +112 2.12
Athletics Gray 51.14% Oakland -112 1.89


Rangers Lewis 42.28% Texas +147 2.47
Mariners Iwakuma 57.72% Seattle -147 1.68
-------------
St Louis Cardinals (Wacha) -163 (300 Units = 2.65%)
Boston Red Sox (Price) -175 (225 Units = 1.99%)
------
Important: Lines may change, when the lineups will be out. However, I will not have the time to update them here. I will come back just before Cubs game and will update lines and add some more picks. I will start with those two early game picks today. More come later, check this forum again.
Thanks

 

[Underdogchance]

adding (monday):
Houston Astros (McHugh) -134 (170 Units = 1.50%)
LA Angels (Tropeano) +128 (100 Units = 0.89%)

 

[Underdogchance]

adding 100 units to Angels!!
LA +128 (200 Units)

 

[Underdogchance]

TUESDAY - 12/4/2016

MLB 2016: +133.01 Units
LAST PICKS: +340.82 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +2.89%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 11672.27 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 170.63 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +118
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 26

Pirates Nicasio 46.42% Pittsburgh +115
Tigers Sanchez 53.57% Detroit -115


Diamondbacks Corbin 42.60% Arizona +135
Dodgers Maeda 57.40% LA Dodgers -135


Padres Erlin 50.88% San Diego -104
Phillies Morton 49.12% Philadelphia +104


Braves Chacin 33.04% Atlanta +203
Nationals Gonzalez 66.96% Washington -203


Yankees Tanaka 49.81% NY Yankees +101
Blue Jays Sanchez 50.18% Toronto -101


Orioles Wright 36.66% Baltimore +173
Red Sox Bucholz 63.33% Boston -173


Indians Kluber 48.25% Cleveland +107
Rays Moore 51.75% Tampa Bay -107


Marlins Fernandez 48.17% Miami +108
Mets Syndergaard 51.83% NY Mets -108


Royals Medlen 40.71% Kansas +146
Astros Fiers 59.28% Houston -146


Giants Samardzija 52.33% San Francisco -110
Rockies Chatwood 47.65% Colorado +110


Angels Santiago 51.53% La Angels -106
Athletics Graveman 48.47% Oakland +106


Rangers Holland 47.92% Texas +109
Mariners Miley 52.08% Seattle -109
---------------
I will change font. Some people say it was ugly font for picks
NY Yankees (Tanaka) +112 (115 Units = 0.99%)
Tampa Bay Rays (Moore) +119 (260 Units = 2.23%)
Miami Marlins (Fernandez) +125 (155 Units = 1.33%)
Houston Astros (Fiers) -135 (100 Units = 0.86%)
-----
Maybe I'll add one or two plays 1-2 hours before late games starts (in Oakl and Sea)
Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

adding last pick for today:
Colorado Rockies (Chatwood) -110 (95 Units = 0.81%)

 

[Underdogchance]

WEDNESDAY - 13/4/2016

MLB 2016: +569.96 Units
LAST PICKS: +436.95 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +10.69%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 12109.22 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 166.63 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +113
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 31
----------------------------------------

Marlins Conley 47.03% Miami +117
Mets Verrett 52.97% NY Mets -117


Angels Shoemaker 53.90% LAA -109
Athletics Surkamp 46.10% Oakland +109


Rangers AJ Griffin 47.02% Texas +121
Mariners Walker 52.98% Seattle -121


Padres Rea 45.51% San Diego +125
Phillies Eickhoff 54.49% Philadelphia -125


Tigers Greene 47.64% Detroit +123
Pirates Vogelsong 52.36% Pittsburgh -123


Braves Wisler 34.42% Atlanta +204
Nationals Strasburg 65.58% Washington -204


Yankees Pineda 47.47% NYY +124
Blue Jays Happ 52.53% Toronto -124


Orioles Jimenez 43.14% Baltimore +142
Red Sox Kelly 56.85% Boston -142


Indians Carrasco 48.45% Cleveland +118
Rays Smyly 51.55% Tampa Bay -118


Reds Simon 35.36% Cincinnati +195
Cubs Lackey 64.64% Cubs -195


White Sox Rodon 49.54% White Sox +108
Twins Hughes 50.46% Minnesota -108


Royals Ventura 49.54% Kansas +109
Astros Feldman 50.46% Houston -109


Brewers Anderson 47.45% Milwaukee +121
Cardinals Leake 52.55% St Louis -121


Giants Peavy 49.36% San Francisco +116
Rockies Lyles 50.62% Colorado -116


Diamondbacks De La Rosa 38.87% Arizona +164
Dodgers Wood 61.13% LA Dodgers -164
-----------------
Texas Rangers (AJ Griffin) +136 (120 Units = 0.99%)
Philadelphia Phillies (Eickhoff) -115 (105 Units = 0.87%)
Boston Red Sox (Kelly) -119 (225 Units = 1.85%)
Tampa Bay Rays (Smyly) -103 (160 Units = 1.32%)
Houston Astros (Feldman) +106 (170 Units = 1.40%)
Milwaukee Brewers (Anderson) +147 (190 Units = 1.57%)
Colorado Rockies (Lyles) -102 (150 Units = 1.24%)
LA Dodgers (Wood) -151 (120 Units = 0.99%)
---------------
Good Luck to All!

 

[scarf31]

As always, thanks for sharing this info, UDC. :cheers3:

 

[Underdogchance]

@scarf31 :shake:

 

[Underdogchance]

Texas Rangers (AJ Griffin) +136 (120 Units = 0.99%) L
Philadelphia Phillies (Eickhoff) -115 (105 Units = 0.87%) W
Boston Red Sox (Kelly) -119 (225 Units = 1.85%) W
Tampa Bay Rays (Smyly) -103 (160 Units = 1.32%) L
Houston Astros (Feldman) +106 (170 Units = 1.40%) L
Milwaukee Brewers (Anderson) +147 (190 Units = 1.57%) W
Colorado Rockies (Lyles) -102 (150 Units = 1.24%) W
LA Dodgers (Wood) -151 (120 Units = 0.99%) W
---------------
Good Luck to All!

+336.09

 

[Underdogchance]

THURSDAY - 14/4/2016

MLB 2016: +906.05 Units
LAST PICKS: +336.09 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +13.79%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 12445.31 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 164.30 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +113
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 36
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) -116 (170 Units = 1.41%)
Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) +174 (135 Units = 1.08%)
Houston Astros (Fister) -110 (140 Units = 1.12%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Underdogchance]

adding:
Atlanta Braves (Teheran) +191 (170 Units = 1.41%)

 

[Underdogchance]

FRIDAY - 15/4/2016

MLB 2016: +291.05 Units
LAST PICKS: -615.00 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +4.05%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 11830.31 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 163.34 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +114
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 40
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Boston Red Sox (Porcello) -115 (255 Units = 2.16%)
NY Mets (Colon) +104 (400 Units = 3.38%)
White Sox (Sale) -113 (105 Units = 0.89%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
more to come...
Mariners Karns 45.91% Seattle +128
Yankees Severino 54.09% NYY -128


Nationals Ross 56.96% Washington -125
Phillies Hellickson 43.04% Philadelphia +125


Brewers Nelson 47.11% Milwaukee +127
Pirates Locke 52.89% Pittsburgh -127


Blue Jays Dickey 43.93% Toronto +141
Red Sox Porcello 56.06% Boston -141


Braves Perez 36.20% Atlanta +184
Marlins Chen 63.80% Miami -184


Reds Melville 39.59% Cincinnati +163
Cardinals Martinez 60.41% St Louis -163


Giants Baumgarner 39.52% San Francisco +160
Dodgers Kershaw 60.48% LA Dodgers -160


Diamondbacks Greinke 56.48% Arizona -125
Padres Shields 43.52% San Diego +125


White Sox Sale 57.20% White Sox -123
Rays Odorizzi 42.80% Tampa Bay +123


Orioles Worley 50.09% Baltimore +107
Rangers Perez 49.91% Texas -107


Tigers Pelfrey 43.04% Detroit +145
Astros Keuchel 56.95% Houston -145


Angels Richards 59.12% LA Angels -136
Twins Milone 40.87% Minnesota +136


Royals Volquez 44.99% Kansas +131
Athletics Hill 55.01% Oakland -131


Mets Colon 59.21% NY Mets -136
Indians Anderson 40.79% Cleveland +136

 

[Underdogchance]

adding:
LA Angels (Richards) -122 (180 Units = 1.52%)

 

[Underdogchance]

Detroit Tigers (Pelfrey) +171 (115 Units = 0.97%)

may add more plays today...check this forum later

 

[Underdogchance]

Last Play today:
Oakland Athletics (Hill) -119 (190 Units = 1.61%)

Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

SATURDAY - 16/4/2016

MLB 2016: +536.72 Units
LAST PICKS: +245.67 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +6.37%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 12075.98 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 168.64 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +113
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 46
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NY Yankees (Sabathia) +115 (285 Units = 2.36%)
Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) +101 (235 Units = 1.95%)
Cincinnati Reds (Finnegan) +148 (120 Units = 0.99%)
NY Mets (Harvey) -123 (205 Units = 1.70%)
Atlanta Braves (Norris) +157 (170 Units = 1.41%)
Houston Astros (McHugh) -127 (345 Units = 2.86%)
LA Dodgers (Kazmir) -116 (195 Units = 1.61%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mariners Hernandez 49.12% Seattle +112
Yankees Sabathia 50.88% NYY -112


Angels Weaver 46.85% LAA +120
Twins Nolasco 53.14% Minnesota -120


Reds Finnegan 44.82% Cincinnati +131
Cardinals Wainwright 55.18% St Louis -131


Rockies Bergman 29.10% Colorado +291
Cubs Arrieta 70.89% Cubs -291


Blue Jays Estrada 44.34% Toronto +139
Red Sox Price 55.65% Boston -139


Royals Young 43.50% Kansas +140
Athletics Gray 56.50% Oaklans -140


Mets Harvey 60.47% NY Mets -144
Indians Tomlin 39.53% Cleveland +144


White Sox Danks 45.23% White Sox +131
Rays Ramirez 54.77% Tampa Bay -131

Brewers Jungmann 43.15% Milwaukee +149
Pirates Niese 56.84% Pittsburgh -149


Braves Norris 44.31% Atlanta +131
Marlins Koehler 55.69% Miami -131


Tigers Verlander 40.00% Detroit +165
Astros McHugh 59.99% Houston -165


Orioles Gallardo 51.95% Baltimore -101
Rangers Lewis 48.04% Texas +101


Diamondbacks Miller 50.67% Arizona +101
Padres Cashner 49.33% San Diego -101


Giants Cueto 43.52% San Francisco +135
Dodgers Kazmir 56.48% LA Dodgers -135
----------

This is final card and there will be no additional plays today. I will not be there when the game starts - until tomorrow. Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

MONDAY - 18/4/2016

MLB 2016: +188.57 Units
LAST PICKS: -348.15 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +1.89%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 11727.83 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 175.21 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +113
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 51
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati Reds (Straily) -127 (250 Units = 2.1%)
Chicago Cubs (Lackey) -108 (135 Units = 1.13%)
San Francisco Giants (Peavy) -133 (155 Units = 1.3%)
LA Angels (Santiago) +122 (195 Units = 1.64%)
Minnesota Twins (Hughes) -130 (95 Units = 0.8%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mets Snydergaard 65.78% Mets -184Phillies Eickhoff 34.22% Phillies +184


Nationals Roark 38.32% Nationals +172
Marlins Fernandez 61.68% Marlins -172


Rockies Lyles 42.25% Rockies +155
Reds Straily 57.75% Reds -155


Cubs Lackey 56.69% Cubs -121
Cardinals Leake 43.31% Cardinals +121


Diamondbacks Bradley 41.05% Arizona +150
Giants Peavy 58.95% Giants -150


Angels Santiago 50.56% LAA +102
White Sox Rodon 49.42% White Sox -102


Brewers Anderson 43.98% Milwaukee +140
Twins Hughes 56.01% Minnesota -140

 

[Underdogchance]

TUESDAY - 19/4/2016

MLB 2016: +219.50 Units
LAST PICKS: +30.925 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +2.03%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 11758.75 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 174.47 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +111
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 61
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NY Mets (Verrett) +104 (225 Units = 1.91%)
Miami Marlins (Conley) +132 (155 Units = 1.32%)
LA Dodgers (Wood) -127 (105 Units = 0.89%)
Cubs (Hammel) +115 (265 Units = 2.25%)
San Diego Padres (Rea) +132 (375 Units = 3.19%)
Seattle Mariners (Miley) +144 (210 Units = 1.79%)
Oakland Athletics (Surkamp) +150 (540 Units = 4.59%)
Baltimore Orioles (Wright) +132 (95 Units = 0.81%)
Boston Red Sox (Kelly) -108 (190 Units = 1.62%)
Detroit Tigers (Greene) +136 (365 Units = 3.1%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher Win% Moneyline

Mets Verrett 54.94% NY Mets -117
Phillies Velasquez 45.06% Philadelphia +115


Nationals Strasburg 55.09% Washington -115
Marlins Conley 44.90% Miami +115


Dodgers Wood 58.91% LA Dodgers -138
Braves Teheran 41.09% Atlanta +138


Rockies De La Rosa 54.63% Colorado -107
Reds Simon 45.37% Cincinnati +107


Cubs Hammel 54.62% Cubs -111
Cardinals Garcia 45.37% St Louis +111


Pirates Liriano 50.06% Pittsburgh +109
Padres Rea 49.94% San Diego -109


Diamondbacks Ray 46.82% Arizona +118
Giants Cain 53.18% San Francisco -118


Mariners Miley 47.78% Seattle +116
Indians Carrasco 52.22% Cleveland -116


Athletics Surkamp 56.54% Oakland -116
Yankees Pineda 43.46% NYY +116


Blue Jays Stroman 56.29% Toronto -120
Orioles Wright 43.70% Baltimore +120


Rays Smyly 46.95% Tampa Bay +126
Red Sox Kelly 53.04% Boston -126


Tigers Greene 52.86% Detroit -106
Royals Ventura 47.14% Kansas +106


Astros Feldman 49.12% Houston +115
Rangers Holland 50.88% Texas -115


Angels Shoemaker 49.15% LAA +108
White Sox Latos 50.84% White Sox -108


Brewers Peralta 47.24% Milwaukee +122
Twins Santana 52.75% Minnesota -122

 

[kdog]

You should recheck your data on these two UC. FWIW I have these at Yankees -161 & KC -145. EBemiss, another poster here whose model I would rate better than mine has Yankees -160 & KC -155.

Athletics Surkamp 56.54% Oakland -116
Yankees Pineda 43.46% NYY +116

Tigers Greene 52.86% Detroit -106
Royals Ventura 47.14% Kansas +106

 

[mrpickem]

Good luck, love your numbers...thx for contributing.

Is there any algorithms used or mostly simple math in the determination of game unit value.

:shake: