Some of my possibilities:
North Texas - I feel like I just have to consider them with how bad Marshall has been. Marshall has lost as DD fav home vs ECU, at MTSU and nearly lost home this past week vs ODU. Marshall needed basically a miracle TD to get to OT as 3 TD fav. Their loss to MTSU was filled with turnovers, but then look what MTSU did, they followed up their win vs Herd with a 28 point loss to Liberty. Remember Grant Wells had those horrific final 3 games last year vs Rice/UAB/Buffalo and it seems some of that is happening again. Not that I really like NTex, just that Marshall's continual failures as a favorite just forces me to see what NTex might be able to do.
San Jose St - This is kind of a stubborn look. I watch San Diego State vs New Mexico, I watch them vs Towson (yes I actually did I had plays), vs Utah, etc...well not vs Arizona, but I watch them in these games and I see weakness. The run game is good, it's not great. The D is solid, it's not great. The problem is they keep facing teams unsuited to exploit any of those opportunities. And so it is here again with a slumping San Jose State team. Nick Nash did not play well last week. Nick Nash did beat this Aztec team in relief last year, think he played 3.5 quarters as Starkel went out early. I expect San Jose D to matchup vs San Diego O here. The key is going to be, what kind of O will Spartans be able to generate. And that is a tough calculation, it isn't overly optimistic given San Jose's recent games, or any games this season. But I'm looking.
Cal - I do think Oregon is likely to lose another game this season. Whether or not it is Friday, I do not know. I tend to want to give the Cal O a mulligan for the Wazzou performance. No doubt, it was bad. They have had to stew on that loss, on their season during the bye week. Just as Oregon has had to do off their Stanford loss. I think both teams have a lot to prove and there are questions and weakness with both teams. Cal beat them last year and Cal was a mess last year. Cal is a head scratcher this year. I can't believe they are 1-4, but they are. Oregon is 4-1, but has played exactly one good game this year. Nice for them it was against Ohio St. Outside of that, Oregon feels much more like last year's Duck team than anything we might've believed they were after the win in Columbus.
Bowling Green - Two teams that were or are ascending. Was the improvement in BG real before the Akron loss? I mean it when I say it, Akron was on the verge of being blown out in the 1st Q vs BG last week. That game nearly went sideways real fast, best case BG could've been up 28-0, as it was, they led 13-0 and kept Akron in the game. I tend to think BG is better than that because they have shown life weeks 1-5 prior. Now, NIU's improvement is perhaps more believable...them beating EM and Toledo is not a fluke. BG beating Min is obviously a fluke. But BG's 7 point loss at Kent where they led in the 3rd Q also tells me they can compete. NIU might be rounding the corner and BG isn't to the corner yet, but they can see it down there somewhere. BG might compete here. Going from a 2 TD fav to a nearly 10pt dog tells me that odds makers aren't sure yet where to peg them.
Ohio - Ohio appears to be getting off the mat. They pulled away from Akron 2 weeks ago for their first win and played well vs Central Michigan last week. Teams don't really stay the same, they either get better or get worse and while it has taken a while, I think Ohio might be to the point of getting better. Buffalo did come back from 21 down to actually lead at Kent last week, but have still opened 0-2 in MAC play and nearly lost to ODU. Buffalo has at times competed better than expected, but they are also failed to meet expectations vs FBS with only 1 cover. This is a game where I think Ohio can continue to ascend and Buffalo could continue to slump.
Vanderbilt - Oh man, I don't know, but I think I like it, a little? South Carolina barely beat ECU, did not play well vs Troy despite the cover. We all know Vandy is bad, but they weren't all bad in the 1st H vs UF last week, except for the scoring part, which I'm told is kind of important. Just hard for me to watch SC play and think they are 18.5 pts better than anyone in the SEC, then I remember Vandy is in the SEC. I suppose I probably don't play this ,but for some reason I want to.
South Florida - Now we are getting towards the bottom of the barrel aren't we? Not sure if it is real or not, but USF showed some life the last two games (only trailed SMU by 10 in 4th Q and outscored BYU 21-7 2nd H) and maybe they find themselves off the bye week? Tulsa was not as impressive as their Memphis win implies and while they do get respect and credit for playing Ok St and Ohio St pretty tough, they also lost to UC Davis and got blown out by Houston. I honestly don't know much about USF other than looking at box scores and reading preview magazines, just a hunch - not normally the kind of team one would want to back.
Akron - I swear, I am just going down the rotation, but these last several teams are like the worst teams in football! So Akron lost 38-7 last year vs Miami, pretty sure I ML'd them in that game (oops). Miami is obviously better and actually think Miami is one of the better teams in the league. I did see a lot that I liked out of Akron last week vs BG once Gibson came into the game 2nd H. Gibson was the QB last year and Miami dominated him. Truth told here, Miami likely wins this game I am just assuming that Akron can be more competitive than the oddsmakers think they can. They are the smart ones though.
UCF - So the further I go down the less believable these are becoming! If only UCF had a QB to believe in. Guess it starts and stops there. UCF should have the roster to compete with Cincy which is exactly what they normally do. However, like ships turning at sea, this series is slowly turning. I remember an up-and-coming Cincy team getting waxed by a well oiled UCF team a few years ago. It is more likely that happens here than UCF winning. But still, I can't forget UC's lackluster 1st H vs Temple, or failing to score any points vs ND in the 2nd H, or the 1st H vs Murray St or how UC nearly lost as heavy fav vs Tulsa last year AAC Title game. The ML odds for this game are crazy high and it's for a reason, so not advisable.
Air Force - AF's stumble vs Utah State was appreciated, they were up by DD in the 4th Q in that one. AF looks to be typical AF team, their domination vs an athletic FAU team was pretty impressive considering FAU hung 58 and 704y up the week after AF held them to 7 and 219y. BYU gifted Boise the game last week pretty much. Boise just doesn't feel the same, which is necessary because Boise has won and usually covered the last 4. AF upset them in 2016. The spread in this series has never been below 7.
TCU - Would like this a bunch of Rattler was QB since we all think that Caleb Williams can make OU O good again. He is still a true freshman, but played well last week. Duggan and Evans will be needed here, not sure of status. But OU has been living on borrowed time. Maybe the window for them to stubble and lose is closed now. Should be a good spot for TCU emotionally catching them off red river. Last year they had a bye after Texas, so I'm not sure what all the angles might be of let down or cover post Texas without knowing if there were byes after some years or not.
Central Michigan - If there is one team in the MAC that continues to be puzzling, it is Toledo. Take out the UMass game, and the last 3 games vs teams on their level (CSU, BallSt, NIU), UT is only averaging 16ppg! I do believe the Rocket D to be a pretty solid unit. Central Mich isn't great but they should be on even terms with Toledo, they possess some piece offensively where I doubt they get shut down (avg 460 ypg). I'm not sure why Toledo is a road fav here unless it is just total bait, in which case I will be guilty.
Purdue - All right now. Yes, I have bet against Iowa this year and lost. I know this. And I am not scared or embarrassed about it. Purdue has beat Iowa 3 of the last 4 and the loss was just by 6 points. Iowa O came out with something to prove vs Maryland it appeared, then Ohio St washed the floor with Maryland so that says Maryland simply isn't very good. You watch Iowa and you just see ways in which they are vulnerable, but it hasn't mattered yet. Hell, even Colorado St pushed them. Kent wasn't all bad vs them. It comes down to mistakes and turnovers and I can't know how Purdue is going to fair in that regard. I do think Purdue possesses a type of O that can challenge Iowa. And what then, if Purdue breaks through the black and gold wall and scores some points, will Iowa be able to put together drives of their own without the help of turnovers and beneficial field position? It's only one player, but Riley Moss being out certainly helps Purdue's chances. Boilers off a bye, Iowa off a field storming win vs top 5 sets up pretty nicely in theory. Come on Brohm!
Kent State - Kent got the O on track last week and I don't expect that to be just a one-off fluke at this point. They lost something in their receiving corp from last year that it took some time to reestablish and I am hopeful that their production on O can be sustained now. Western is good, but not really that good are they? I mean they are MAC good, Kent isn't too far off. The WM OL isn't very good and the WM O isn't very good when QB is under pressure. Buffalo sacked them 3x, Ball St sacked them 4x. And Kent has 7 sacks in 2 MAC games this season. Kent D shouldn't be overmatched here unless WM unleashes some kind of power run game, which they have not done to date vs anybody not named Illinois State.
Kentucky - blasphemy. So how does UK do it? Maybe UK wins one in ten games between them and Georgia. Well, if you are playing ML odds on a 23 pt dog and bet them to win 10 times and they only succeeded once, you would actually make money! But there is maybe a less than 1 in 10 shot. UK on D should matchup. These games between these two have been close. Georgia has only scored a combined 35pts on UK the last two meetings. Problem? Well yeah, it is that UK has only scored a combined 3 pts in those games. Could be the case again, however, this UK O appears better suited to score more although they have at times been disappointing on that side of the ball before the LSU game. Figuring on a low scoring game where UK has a few good drives in the game and if they get a couple plays, could even be a 4th Q game!
Texas State - full disclosure, I ML Texas State a lot and did win one last year, but am 0-2 this year. It's actually more against Troy than pro Texas State. What has Troy done this season to like, at all? Troy is only averaging 19 ppg vs other G5 FBS teams this year on O. What exactly should I be scared off here in playing against them? Texas St atleast has offensive potential. Now they have big turnover potential too. Bye 2 weeks ago, home win last week and home again second straight week vs a team that only beat Georgia Southern by 3 and lost to ULM by 7 and was trailing at HT vs a bad Southern Miss team? Historically this is a bad matchup for Texas State, but historically the 2021 Troy Trojans are not very good compared to their prior editions.
Kansas State - I remembered last night that Iowa State is actually still playing football. I had forgotten all about them. Both teams off a bye and last year ISU blanked them 45-0! Bet K St remembers that one pretty clearly. Prior to that ,these games were tight. K St has their QB back (which they didn't have vs ISU last year). Home night game, should be a good one this year as I'm not writing ISU off, just that their Big Xll games are often close...7 of their 12 Big Xll games this and last year were 1 score games, take out Kansas, because why not, and 7 of 10 Big Xll games over the past two seasons have been one score games. If it is tight late in Manhattan this game could go either way. K St beat them last time here in 2019 and before that in 2017 was a 1 point loss, think that was some failed 2pt play with :00 left where Cats lost.
UNLV - My favorite team from Logan Utah has hit the skids. After starting 3-0 ATS and winning 2 MLs, they have now failed to cover the last 2. Sorry, was fun while it lasted. UNLV, actually has played some decent football the past 2 games. Most of us saw the game they had vs Fresno and our friend VK actually took a shot at them in the ML contest at UTSA, crazy right, they only lost by 7. Utah State has more medals, but UNLV is definitely still trying. It will be hard for them as Utah St's O can stress a D like UNLV's. Then again, if Utah St's O plays like they did the last 2 and makes similar mistakes then this game could be up for grabs.
UTEP - My other favorite team this year (played RSW Ov). UTEP has come a long way. Not so far that they can play with the Boise's of the world though. So question is, what kind of team is LaTech? A very confusing team who has played up vs their tough games (could've/should've beat MissSt, SMU and NC State) ,but then they only beat North Texas by 7 and SE La by 3. UTEP is an old school, kind of plodding offense who can make plays on the outside, but they aren't going to hit many big plays vs the better Ds they play, so they will have to sustain drives. LaTech doesn't really get many sacks or TFLs so hopefully Miners can stay on schedule. The UTEP D is really where the concern comes in, the stats look good, but that is because of opposition faced. Then you see Boise had nearly 7.5ypp against them. LaTech O can be pretty good at times. UTEP believes and is tasting success and they are capable, it's not like they have a New Mexico kind of O or an Akron kind of D. They will believe they can play with LaTech, last year it was just 21-17 and three years ago it was 31-24. 2019 LaTech crushed them so that possibility exists.
So that is what I'm looking at. Now, how to narrow it down to the ones I actually want to risk real money on?
opcorn:
