ML Dogs Week 16

Iowa State
ULL
N Dame
San Jose State
Those teams are all trying to win a conference title and advance to the CFP, so all have plenty to play for.

There are a bunch of games that are totally pointless and meaningless. I expect some of them to be cancelled just because the players and staff aren't interested, but if you can find the teams who are fired up to play AND getting points it might be some easy money

Stanford--does UCLA even want to play another game? And if they do, is there anything left in the tank after losing in the last seconds to their biggest rival?

Texas A&M--big game for aTm who has serious CFP chances, meaningless game at the end of a bad season for Tennessee

Rutgers--hard to know if either Rutgers or Nebraska will care about this game, but the season has been a complete failure for Nebraska who had big hopes, a success for Rutgers. Could it be Rutgers is actually looking forward to this home game?
 
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Rutgers was really high and emotional last week. That felt like season finale to me. Nebraska still has bad taste in their mouth. Didn't even know that was a game. I'll have to look at the new schedule.
 
Natural for us all to look towards Washington. I worry about their offense. UW O has been a worrisome unit for all or parts of games except for Zona game.

Otherwise, like UW D matchup vs Air Raid. Don't think it is as simple as the old Apple Cup games but some of that blueprint might apply? USC just keeps getting by. Could've/should've lost 4 of their 5 games.

Sell me on the UW O here
 
Ole Oaken bucket is back on? Nice! No way that was East-West pecking order game. Purdue going to win.
 
Air Force small road chalk now? Acknowledge the hangover Army might have but look at who these kids are being trained to be. You think they can't move on to the next objective? AF should not be favored I don't think in true road game.
 
Hard to know what to make of USC. In a way it seems like luck, but they do it every week, so it may be they are so loaded with talent they can turn it on when they want.

I took USC at the last minute on Saturday--mostly because I don't trust UCLA to even show up for any particular game--and for 58 minutes thought it was sure loser. But on that last minute drive they moved down the field with ease. Pin point passes right on the numbers, beautiful athletic catches.

I like USC at home in that game. I wasn't impressed with Washington, but I don't relish giving almost a TD either. I'm going to have to think a little on that one
 
iowa state surprised me coming out as td dogs - They have been blowing some respectable teams out, that you thought those margins would be impressing vegas. I don't think too much has changed from either team since last game ? seems like a pickem

hard not to look at that iowa matchup and think they do what wisconsin did to michigan. ...speaking of wisconsin something may not be right with that ol but if there ever was a time this is a great matchup vs a horrid rush d.

is colorado qb out this game ? line seems high if he's in

usc - washington - cases to not bet either. Haven't watched much of washington but they are very blah , don't think they are as good as ucla and perhaps a few other pac. And USC has so much talent and nfl qb they barely win but still give you the impression they have higher potential next game...i'd lay it with SC if forced to play
 
It's slim pickens out there this week.....first pass through I like SJ State and Rutgers but not much else....lukewarm on Florida State.....longshots possibly on Tennessee and Illinois.

But uncovered this along the way as far as favs go....Doc Holliday is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS coming off a loss and rest of more than 10 days:

dholliday.jpg

:popcorn:
 
Good point JRock. I love betting good teams off of bad games. Marshall didn't just have a bad game. They straight up got embarrassed like seldom before in program history!

UAB O is always pretty easy to stop on paper. Probably is their schedule is always so paper thin that they can win even when their O stinks up the joint.

Man, I bet Marshall is chomping at the bit to get back out there. On their home field where they laid a complete and total egg being shutout at home for the first time ever!

Gimme the Herd!
 
s--k said:
Northwestern?
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you think? I havnt really watched much of them but seems to me the offense is as limited as always. Certainly don’t think the defense good enough to hold osu from hanging 35+ As they just Havnt been tested by a team with a big time offense. Sparty scored 29 on them! Purdue and iowa 20. Feels like a 38-14 kinda game to me.
 
2daBank said:
you think? I havnt really watched much of them but seems to me the offense is as limited as always. Certainly don’t think the defense good enough to hold osu from hanging 35+ As they just Havnt been tested by a team with a big time offense. Sparty scored 29 on them! Purdue and iowa 20. Feels like a 38-14 kinda game to me.
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I was thinking a little of the last time NW faced OSU in the Title game. NW trailed just 21-24 3rd Q. And then OSU ran away with it. Which could happen again. Mabye should happen again. But we picking upsets, things that should not happen. Just sorting through some ideas on this game. I don't know.

NW is pretty similar to Indiana in some ways. IU is better in some ways. There is absolutely no comparison to the 2019 game on either side to be had.

Does Northwestern have the better D? OSU DL edge. After that, I don't know, NW might actually be better in the back 7?
 
Ohio State allowing 3 sacks per game. One spot ahead of Maryland and one spot behind Penn State, otherwise second worst in the league.

NW isn't a great pass rush team though. Not as good as Indiana.
 
s--k said:
I was thinking a little of the last time NW faced OSU in the Title game. NW trailed just 21-24 3rd Q. And then OSU ran away with it. Which could happen again. Mabye should happen again. But we picking upsets, things that should not happen. Just sorting through some ideas on this game. I don't know.

NW is pretty similar to Indiana in some ways. IU is better in some ways. There is absolutely no comparison to the 2019 game on either side to be had.

Does Northwestern have the better D? OSU DL edge. After that, I don't know, NW might actually be better in the back 7?
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I think NW has a better secondary.
 
Even if the game is close, you know at any moment OSU could get a couple quick scores and boom, it's not a game any more. That is the risk with any Ohio State game vs a team like NW or other comparable B1G teams.
 
s--k said:
I was thinking a little of the last time NW faced OSU in the Title game. NW trailed just 21-24 3rd Q. And then OSU ran away with it. Which could happen again. Mabye should happen again. But we picking upsets, things that should not happen. Just sorting through some ideas on this game. I don't know.

NW is pretty similar to Indiana in some ways. IU is better in some ways. There is absolutely no comparison to the 2019 game on either side to be had.

Does Northwestern have the better D? OSU DL edge. After that, I don't know, NW might actually be better in the back 7?
Click to expand...

I Havnt seen nw to know but certainly possible. Problem being their secondary will be facing the way bigger challenge. I know we upset hunting, I just thought your rice over Marshall play made so much more sense and was obviously spot in. This one just seems about as improbable it gets where the rice one felt far more likely than odds suggested. I can’t even bring myself to like all those points here!!
 
The Rice call was as much of a Marshall fade as a Rice play.

Fading Ohio State to lose, straight up, with their playoff lives on the line. LOL that is tough. My mind just works different.

Do think that Ohio State, don't want to say they aren't as good as their rank says, they are very good in a lot of ways, but just downgraded in some ways from the 2019 and prior teams. Covid positive rumor on Olave and maybe some contact tracing. You wouldn't expect that to matter vs NW, but if their #1 is out, NW has some decent DBs...could matter.

Fields could just totally take the game over with legs if he has to.
 
I’m far more interested in Tulsa over cincy as I don’t think the gap is nearly as big in that one. Just hate they have both played so few games the last month but that most likely leads to far more unpredictability there which could favor dog.
 
s--k said:
The Rice call was as much of a Marshall fade as a Rice play.

Fading Ohio State to lose, straight up, with their playoff lives on the line. LOL that is tough. My mind just works different.

Do think that Ohio State, don't want to say they aren't as good as their rank says, they are very good in a lot of ways, but just downgraded in some ways from the 2019 and prior teams. Covid positive rumor on Olave and maybe some contact tracing. You wouldn't expect that to matter vs NW, but if their #1 is out, NW has some decent DBs...could matter.

Fields could just totally take the game over with legs if he has to.
Click to expand...

i agree osu looks more vulnerable than past years. But man no faith in NW.
 
2daBank said:
I’m far more interested in Tulsa over cincy as I don’t think the gap is nearly as big in that one. Just hate they have both played so few games the last month but that most likely leads to far more unpredictability there which could favor dog.
Click to expand...

Well on that one, you could look at it like this. Tulsa never plays good to start a game offensively. So can a layoff really hurt them there? It's only one week for Tulsa so like a regular bye week. Tulsa D I would think shows up early no matter what. The O...if you like Tulsa then you know how their O struggles early for some reason, so a Tulsa backer is ok with this fact I assume and therefore they can only be better really.

The layoff could have a greater impact on Cincy. 1) it's been a longer layoff having not played since 11/21 and 2) they were playing really well at the time. I doubt the layoff would help them, it would either have no effect or a negative effect.
 
Back to Ohio State, it's strange, I have zero fear of their conventional run game with Sermon and Teague, not that they are bad, but I think NW can handle it. Certainly better than they could handle say Dobbins. The worry is what Fields does in the running game.
 
s--k said:
Well on that one, you could look at it like this. Tulsa never plays good to start a game offensively. So can a layoff really hurt them there? It's only one week for Tulsa so like a regular bye week. Tulsa D I would think shows up early no matter what. The O...if you like Tulsa then you know how their O struggles early for some reason, so a Tulsa backer is ok with this fact I assume and therefore they can only be better really.

The layoff could have a greater impact on Cincy. 1) it's been a longer layoff having not played since 11/21 and 2) they were playing really well at the time. I doubt the layoff would help them, it would either have no effect or a negative effect.
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totally agree with that. I already played under which i like better than a ats side but I could see Tulsa ml sneaking into a small dog RR. Maybe 1st half ml?
 
IU has big edge with their receivers compared to what NW has. Even if Ramsey is capable, not an overwhelming passing game from them.

Any time you start looking at a 20 point dog in a straight up sense, you run in to way more reasons they lose than win.

In the same way I think NW can handle OSU conventional run game, OSU shouldn't be at risk vs this NW pass game. It will be light years better than they faced last year, but that isn't saying much.

NW will have to play TOP type game. Eventually you can't just play keep away the entire time, OSU is going to get theirs eventually.

Yeah, maybe just wishful thinking. Upsets happen. We know that. The unexpected ones are the best ones but it is really hard to try and get those right beforehand.
 
s--k said:
IU has big edge with their receivers compared to what NW has. Even if Ramsey is capable, not an overwhelming passing game from them.

Any time you start looking at a 20 point dog in a straight up sense, you run in to way more reasons they lose than win.

In the same way I think NW can handle OSU conventional run game, OSU shouldn't be at risk vs this NW pass game. It will be light years better than they faced last year, but that isn't saying much.

NW will have to play TOP type game. Eventually you can't just play keep away the entire time, OSU is going to get theirs eventually.

Yeah, maybe just wishful thinking. Upsets happen. We know that. The unexpected ones are the best ones but it is really hard to try and get those right beforehand.
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yea, obviously the more ya cap a game like this you often find more problems for the dog than you want. If I can just find one exploitable matchup it often enough for me. Does osu ever lose this game tho? Off top of my head I want to say this one their weaker ship opponents to. I be far more inclined to take a shot if I felt good with the points but I don’t here. I’d love to see it happen but no confidence.
 
2daBank said:
yea, obviously the more ya cap a game like this you often find more problems for the dog than you want. If I can just find one exploitable matchup it often enough for me. Does osu ever lose this game tho? Off top of my head I want to say this one their weaker ship opponents to. I be far more inclined to take a shot if I felt good with the points but I don’t here. I’d love to see it happen but no confidence.
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Michigan STate beat them in this game.
 
Not much of a comparison with that game though. Other than OSU had a national title shot waiting had they won.
 
I’ll absolutely be rooting for Nw just cause fuck osu but feel like I’ll prob have it turned off before halftime. Lol
 
s--k said:
Even if the game is close, you know at any moment OSU could get a couple quick scores and boom, it's not a game any more. That is the risk with any Ohio State game vs a team like NW or other comparable B1G teams.
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Do you trust the BIG refs to allow this to unfold? Lot of money on the line.
 
I’m only putting this here as random thoughts.
it’s crazy how we deem ML bets. We find the Rice, Tulane or Akron. We search and search.

somehow we miss gold like LSU last week. Top 5 talent in a rivalry game( very very heated rivalry)
And FLA in the biggest look ahead possible.....

I blame myself. We/I gotta do better
 
s--k said:
Even if the game is close, you know at any moment OSU could get a couple quick scores and boom, it's not a game any more. That is the risk with any Ohio State game vs a team like NW or other comparable B1G teams.
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Some stats/history on undefeated teams in conf. championship games.

1-12 ATS (by avg -11.88 ppg) laying 7.5 to 17.5

1-1 ATS (by avg +2.5ppg) laying 18 to 20

7-0 ATS laying 20.5 or more (by avg +15.43 ppg)

Undefeated dogs are 3-2 ATS (avg +5.80) with three games decide by a point or less ATS. There's never been an undefeated dog in a same-season rematch like CU-ND.
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m only putting this here as random thoughts.
it’s crazy how we deem ML bets. We find the Rice, Tulane or Akron. We search and search.

somehow we miss gold like LSU last week. Top 5 talent in a rivalry game( very very heated rivalry)
And FLA in the biggest look ahead possible.....

I blame myself. We/I gotta do better
Click to expand...

The best upsets are the ones that nobody sees coming. They happen and even the most optimistic person looking for upsets isn't going to figure them all out.

Use me as an example, I don't exclusively bet dogs, but predominantly bet dogs. And I can find angles for some ugly ones to maybe win outright. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. But I bet Florida last week.

Zero offense vs aTm. Some offense vs Bama at times, but no defense. LSU just had the feel and the look of a lost team waiting for the season to mercifully end.

The thing I think I missed, or didn't appropriately account for was the look ahead for Florida and since LSU just got crushed by Bama, I falsely assumed Florida too would crush Bama. The later is what bothers me most because one thing I have learned that often what you see one week is not what you get the next week for most of these teams. You've said it Twink, that is a big rivalry. The game mattered for one team and not for another. That could've been a signal, that Florida had bigger fish to fry next week, the LSU game which normally would've been a big game was just another name on the schedule with a losing record. LSU cared. That could've been the angle.

Warning signs for Florida were there vs Vandy, UK and Tennessee and I was like "yeah but they will want to get a confidence boosting game heading into next week". The "yeah but". Yeah but it will be different this time. Where have you heard that before? Want to, can do and will do are all different things.

If Florida converts in the red zone, they don't lose that game. If Florida doesn't turn it over, they don't lose that game. Those are things teams not on their A game struggle with an teams who care capitalize on.

I tip my cap to anyone who was on LSU straight up in that one (Greg McElroy thought it would be close 1st H and wanted to bet Bear and Kanell on it), but if you had the ML, I applaud you. At the end of the day you can't try and find them all simply because you can't find them all. As a ML bettor you have to just face the fact that you can't identify them all. They are upsets for a reason, they shouldn't happen.
 
s--k said:
The best upsets are the ones that nobody sees coming. They happen and even the most optimistic person looking for upsets isn't going to figure them all out.

Use me as an example, I don't exclusively bet dogs, but predominantly bet dogs. And I can find angles for some ugly ones to maybe win outright. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. But I bet Florida last week.

Zero offense vs aTm. Some offense vs Bama at times, but no defense. LSU just had the feel and the look of a lost team waiting for the season to mercifully end.

The thing I think I missed, or didn't appropriately account for was the look ahead for Florida and since LSU just got crushed by Bama, I falsely assumed Florida too would crush Bama. The later is what bothers me most because one thing I have learned that often what you see one week is not what you get the next week for most of these teams. You've said it Twink, that is a big rivalry. The game mattered for one team and not for another. That could've been a signal, that Florida had bigger fish to fry next week, the LSU game which normally would've been a big game was just another name on the schedule with a losing record. LSU cared. That could've been the angle.

Warning signs for Florida were there vs Vandy, UK and Tennessee and I was like "yeah but they will want to get a confidence boosting game heading into next week". The "yeah but". Yeah but it will be different this time. Where have you heard that before? Want to, can do and will do are all different things.

If Florida converts in the red zone, they don't lose that game. If Florida doesn't turn it over, they don't lose that game. Those are things teams not on their A game struggle with an teams who care capitalize on.

I tip my cap to anyone who was on LSU straight up in that one (Greg McElroy thought it would be close 1st H and wanted to bet Bear and Kanell on it), but if you had the ML, I applaud you. At the end of the day you can't try and find them all simply because you can't find them all. As a ML bettor you have to just face the fact that you can't identify them all. They are upsets for a reason, they shouldn't happen.
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Tell this to the people who want to conclude from this game that Bama will crush Florida. Ok maybe they still will, that's a separate discussion. But they shouldn't derive added confidence in this expectation from Florida's slop-fest.
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m only putting this here as random thoughts.
it’s crazy how we deem ML bets. We find the Rice, Tulane or Akron. We search and search.

somehow we miss gold like LSU last week. Top 5 talent in a rivalry game( very very heated rivalry)
And FLA in the biggest look ahead possible.....

I blame myself. We/I gotta do better
Click to expand...
And could you be saying something similar after Florida's next game?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Tell this to the people who want to conclude from this game that Bama will crush Florida. Ok maybe they still will, that's a separate discussion. But they shouldn't derive added confidence in this expectation from Florida's slop-fest.
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yeah but Alabama is different ;) Yeah but! Well...maybe Alabama really is different.

But the point is that last week's Florida will not be what Alabama faces. The loss to LSU will likely make Florida realize that good enough isn't good enough. I expect a fantastic effort and "care" out of the Gators this week. How much that matters and how far it goes in the game, that's why we watch.
 
s--k said:
yeah but Alabama is different ;) Yeah but! Well...maybe Alabama really is different.

But the point is that last week's Florida will not be what Alabama faces. The loss to LSU will likely make Florida realize that good enough isn't good enough. I expect a fantastic effort and "care" out of the Gators this week. How much that matters and how far it goes in the game, that's why we watch.
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Yeah that's what i'm thinking. If anything Florida plays with more chip on its shoulder after what is really an embarrassing and frustrating loss. But again, not sure chip can help much against Bama!
 
Right. It's vs Bama! Bama handled Texas A&M and had a terrific 2nd H vs Georgia. I expect Alabama to win. I'm not sure how they win, as in in what fashion they win. Think there is a chance Florida is competitive although I'm not prepared to say what % chance that is right now.
 
M.W. said:
And could you be saying something similar after Florida's next game?
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Absolutely. I’ve said before I thought it would be a game. That’s hard to believe after what we saw last week in Gainesville.

but as we all know, angles angles angles
 
I'm hearing Olave is out with Covid-19 but I still can't see NW hanging in here. The trenches will be all Buckeyes and Fields can hit Wilson, Ojigba, Fleming, the TEs....it goes on and on...
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m only putting this here as random thoughts.
it’s crazy how we deem ML bets. We find the Rice, Tulane or Akron. We search and search.

somehow we miss gold like LSU last week. Top 5 talent in a rivalry game( very very heated rivalry)
And FLA in the biggest look ahead possible.....

I blame myself. We/I gotta do better
Click to expand...

we all blame you twink!! If you not gonna make a case for lsu we sure the hell not gonna look at them, lol.
 
I def don’t think losing to lsu means anything far as the bama game goes. Of course I expected bama to kick their ass well before that game. lol. As I said somewhere if I was convinced Gators were gonna stay within the number then I would just pound the over, can’t imagine bama doesn’t hang a 50 burger.
 
s--k said:
Rutgers was really high and emotional last week. That felt like season finale to me. Nebraska still has bad taste in their mouth. Didn't even know that was a game. I'll have to look at the new schedule.
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I hear ya but do you think, if someone can do it, Schiano might be the coach to get his team up for one last game?
 
JROCK1966 said:
I hear ya but do you think, if someone can do it, Schiano might be the coach to get his team up for one last game?
Click to expand...

I was hoping the opening number would drop and I could bet Nebraska. Now I see it has gone up to 7 in some places? Rutgers doesn't always play well, but man they care and play hard. Nebraska often disappoints.
 
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