MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 7-10 (-$12500)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 7-10 (-$12500)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
1 Unit = $100
Big losses for me in the Bowl Season but it doesn't concern me because my largest wagers have yet to come. It's time to lower the hammer on some of these big Bowl Games because we all know that most of the Bowl Games feature teams that belong in other bowl games versus more evenly matched teams.
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2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 7-10 (-$12500)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
1 Unit = $100
Big losses for me in the Bowl Season but it doesn't concern me because my largest wagers have yet to come. It's time to lower the hammer on some of these big Bowl Games because we all know that most of the Bowl Games feature teams that belong in other bowl games versus more evenly matched teams.
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Meineke Car Care Bowl
Boston College Eagles -7 (10 Units)
Okay so I have to be the first to admit that I am a little bit skeptical about this game because of the coaching situation on both sides of the ball tonight. Navy's head coach Paul Johnson has been here for five years now but has been mentioned in several coaching position searches around the Country and this could be his audition for a much bigger program. This could also have a reverse effect in the sense that some of his players think he is looking to leave them so they don't really care about this game. I doubt that though. Navy is 2-1 in Bowl Game under Paul Johnson as they beat Colorado State and New Mexico the last two season but got spanked by Texas Tech in the 2003 Houston Bowl as an 11 point underdog. Navy had a ton of injury problems this season and although they are almost back to 100% health for this game, some of the players missed too much time and with the added time off for Bowl Games, could come out a little too rusty for my liking. Navy had a few chances to stun the Nation this season and screw the public but they failed miserably almost each and every time. There was the 34-0 loss to Rutgers as a three point favorite on HomeComing. There was they 38-14 loss to Notre Dame the following game and then there was the loss to Tulsa earlier in the year as 3.5 point favorites. Other than those three games, Navy did not play against a TOP 50 team all year and their schedule was just horrendous. The Midshipmen are averaging 28.6 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 381.3 total yards of offense on 5.7 yards per play. Boston College is still very good defensively with or without their head man and they have allowed only 15.0 points per game this season on 303.8 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play allowed this season. On the ground, we all know Navy is an option run based offense only that rushes for 327.4 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry. Boston College does not have the best D-Line or the best Linebackers but they still allowed only 91.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. The key for BC's defense here is to have the LB's play tough and gang tackle as well as bring the CB's up and stun the Midshipmen a few times. In the air, Navy attempts only 8.7 passes per game this season and when they do, QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada (who is the backup) is completing 45.2% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Eagles have allowed opponents to complete 59.7% of their passes for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and have a whopping 21 int's on the year. If I am Navy, I don't pass more than once in this game because BC has too many big playmakers on their defense. Being a playmaker and being talented are not the same thing and BC's defense has really stepped things up this year.
The Boston College Eagles come into this Bowl Game on a bit of a sour note with head coach Tom O'Brien ditching them after 10 years as head coach but most of the kids understand that O'Brien had paid his dues at Boston College and it was time to move on and make a career move for himself. Defensive Coordinator Frank Spaziani has been here for 8 years now so the kids know him well, they respect him a lot and he was a big part of recruiting several members of this very good defense. Much like Central Michigan, this is one case where I don't see the coach leaving as a big deal. Spaziani has been around long enough to play against Navy four times and win those four games. The Eagles are one of my favorite teams to bet on when they are the underdog and although this is not the case here, if these kids learned anything from Tom O'Brien while playing for him the last few years, it was that you have to be prepared for a Bowl Game and you have to always bring your best. O'Brien was 6-1 as a head coach in Bowl Games and I don't see why his good buddy Spaziani wouldn't want to do the exact same in this game. Boston College is averaging 26.1 points per game this season and they have done it on 357.8 total yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. Navy's defense wasn't all that bad this season allowing 19.7 points per game and allowing 336.8 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, Boston College RB's LV Witworth and Andre Callender are both big O'Brien guys. They combined for 1357 rushing yards on the year each averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry. Navy has played well against the run allowing only 120.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. This game will have to be won in the air for the Eagles. QB Matt Ryan will be entering his Senior year and he has completed 61.1% of his passes this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The offensive line has been great and meaning Ryan has to be more aggressive against a Navy defense allowing opponents to complete 61.3% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Midshipmen have only 10 interceptions on the year and lookout when Ryan decides to go deep to Tony Gonzalez (the present) or Brandon Robinson (the future). I think Boston College wants to win this one for coach Spaziani who could be getting his big break here.
You can and should call Boston College a public bet here because most of the public is on them. The sharp bettors and cappers have jumped ship with coach O'Brien and I see a lot of respected cappers now taking Navy today. I can understand why but much like the Alabama and Central Michigan coaching situations (Bama lost but played well), an assistant coach, in this case DC Frank Spaziani, is taking over and most of the kids have played for him as well their entire college careers (he has been with them for 8 years). Navy is obviously going to run, run and run some more against the Eagles to try and wear down their defensive line. What people seem to forget is that Spaziani has faced Navy before (again, he's been here 8 years as the DC). Let's check those games out for a minute. Spaziana started coaching at Boston College back in 1999 and that year he beat Navy 14-10. The following year, Spaziani put together another gem against Navy beating them 48-7 early in the season. The following year, Spaziani's defense won the game once again beating Navy 38-21. Finally, the last time they played against Navy, Spaziani's defense held them to 21 points and Boston College won 46-21. Sounds good to me.
Trend of the Game: Frank Spaziani (BC interim Head Coach) is 4-0 versus Navy winning by an average of 21.8 points per game.
Boston College 34, Navy 21
Alamo Bowl
Texas Longhorns -8.5 (30 Units)
The Iowa Hawkeyes could have what you call an immensily disappointing season a la Florida State but as we saw with the Seminoles against UCLA, could the Hawakeyes come out and show us what they should have shown us all season long? I doubt it. Kirk Ferentz is one of the only coaches in college football that has badly annoyed me on more than one occasion and his days should definitely be numbered in Iowa City regardless of how much he has ever contributed money wise to the program. You can blame injuries and all that on the downfall of Iowa this season but the bottom line remains that even after QB Drew Tate came back from his injury, he still badly underachieved and did not look like the same Drew Tate that had worked wonders for this team the last three of four seasons. All was well when the Hawkeyes kicked off the season with four straight wins but they ran into Ohio State in Week 5 and got their asses handed to them on a platter on home turf. Ferentz had lost only once as a home underdog in the last eight times Iowa was a home dog and that pretty much sent the team downspiralling from there. Iowa lost their last three games of the season to Minnesota, Northwestern and Wisconsin by a combined 27 points and I don't see why they would be up for a game like this one. The Hawkeyes are averaging 23.8 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 376.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. The Longhorns once again have one of the best defenses around and they have allowed only 17.8 points per game this season. That's about where they have been the last two season as they allowed only 292.9 total yards per game this season and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, Iowa relies heavily on RBs Albert Young and Damiam Sims to get them going on the ground and those two have combined for 1353 rushing yards on the year and 139.7 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry on the season. However, Texas has the #2 ranked run defense in the Nation allowing only 59.8 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry this season. Safe enough to say that if Iowa cannot move the ball on the ground, they are in big trouble. QB Drew Tate is playing in his last college game. He has completed 58.7% of his passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Sure Texas is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season but they'll be pressuring Tate all afternoon and hopefully adding to their total of 28 fumbles forced this season. The Longhorns have a TOP ranked D-Line, a TOP 15 group of linebackers, a TOP 10 group of defensive backs and one of the best special teams units in the college football. Can someone tell me how Iowa has success in this one? Nope...just too much talent roaming the field for the Longhorns on defense.
It's been a long ass season for Mack Brown and the Texas Longhorns because even though I feel and many of the players, fans, coaches feel that this team belongs in the BCS, three unfortunate losses have them playing prior to New Year's Day. You might right away think that the team is disappointed to be playing in this Bowl Game but I highly doubt that because Colt McCoy is still young and playing for next year and after all, this game is still being play in the state of Texas where a lot of people are going to fill those stands wearing the colors of the Longhorns. On the betting side of things this season, Texas was most definitely not going to repeat their 10-2 ATS record of 2005 but they showed nice glimpses of that incredible squad and that is enough for me to believe they can do the same in this game. Texas was favored in every single game they played this season and in the end, they went 5-6 ATS. The best explanation for that is that everyone wants to beat the defending National Champions (that goes for all sports) and most teams actually come out with their best stuff attempting to get that program changing win over a big time school like Texas. You still have to remember that the Longhorns demolished some teams this season and they also crushed Oklahoma in the Red River shootout. Texas is averaging a whopping 36.8 points per game on the season and they have done it by also averaging 392.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play. That tells me how their defense puts them in great position to win ball games. Iowa's is not all that bad as they allowed only 20.6 points per game this season. They also allowed 340.9 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play on the season. On the ground, this is going to be Jamaal Charles' time to shine. Iowa has allowed too many big plays on the ground this year and seeing that Colt McCoy is definitely going to be rust, Charles will be featured early in hopes of getting things open in the air game. Iowa is allowing 138.9 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. McCoy is back from his injury and has been cleared to play. He is completing 68.7% of his passes on the year for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 27 touchdown passes and only 7 interceptions and I am calling for him to thrown into the Heisman mix come early December 2007. This kid is the real deal. Iowa has a solid pass defense as they have allowed only 6.3 yards per pass attempt but that's against Big 10 competition. WR Limas Sweed should have a field day in this one against a secondary protected by good stats and I also think Iowa's weak D-Line is going to be badly exposed in this game. It might not get as ugly as we think but in the end, I just don't see how Texas doesn't blow these guys out by at least 20 points. The only reason I give Iowa any credit here is because Drew Tate won't go out or go down without taking a few shots of his own on this Longhorns defense. Hook em boys!
Anyone betting on Iowa in this game is betting on a team that went 1-10 ATS this season. This could quite easily be a trap game but there haven't been many traps this post-season so why would there be any now? What I have learned the most from struggling in the first half og the Bowl Season is that the better team usually wins and covers the game and the team with the most talent is almost 100% of the time in the winner's circle. If you're going to bet on an underdog you better have visions of that underdog winning the game and I don't see any way for Iowa to pull off the shocking upset. Like I mentioned earlier, Texas is my #4 team in the Country despite their 3 losses because the first loss was to the future National Champions, the second loss was for the most part without Colt McCoy and the third loss was with a very badly injured Colt McCoy. This team is not three losses bad, they are more like a one loss team that should probably be defending their National Title against Ohio State had it not been for the bad luck with McCoy's injuries. Texas is definitely a BCS caliber team and playing in-state will help them trounce the hapless Hawkeyes.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
Texas 37, Iowa 17
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech Hokies -3 (10 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies started their season having only 10 returning seniors but regardless, they were still being talked about in the National Title and BCS Championship Game talks because of their overall talent. The Hokies opened the year 4-2 (2-3 ATS) losing to both Georgia Tech and Boston College but have since righted the ship to the tune of winning their last six games of the year and finishing on a 6-0 SU run (5-1 ATS). Frank Beamer has always been one of the best coaches when it comes to adjusting to the environments and although Georgia struggled a little bit this season, they are still the 3rd best team the Hokies have seen all year. The two best were Boston College and Clemson and the Hokies got smashed by BC but smashed Clemson right back. We really can't talk about the Hokies offense much because they are not the reason for Virginia Tech being 10-2 on the season. The Hokies defense has held 9 teams to 10 or less points this season and in those games they went 6-1 ATS and were 0-3 ATS when allowing more than 10 points this season. The key to wining and covering this game will be to have RB Brandon Ore rush for 100+ yards. The Hokies come into this game averaging 26.0 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 301.5 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Georgia has struggled this year but their defense still allowed only 17.1 points per game and they did it by allowing 264.0 total yards of offense and only 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Branden Ore has been the backbone of this offense and I think Beamer runs him on almost every down tonight. He has 1095 rushing yards on the season and is averaging 99.5 rushing yards per game with 14 touchdowns on the year. The Bulldogs are allowing only 113.7 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry so this won't be easy for Ore. In the air, QB Sean Glennon is not the best of decision makers as he completed only 56.9% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Georgia's defense is allowing opponents to complete 53.2% of their passes this year for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs have 30 sacks on the year and 16 interceptions meaning that Glennon needs to show smarts in this game. It is imperative that the Hokies stick to the run game and try to catch the Bulldogs sleeping in the passing game. Georgia's DB's are very beatable and Glennon should be looking for the speedster Clowney on most of his throws. No mistakes by Glennon means a Virginia Tech win and cover.
The Georgia Bulldogs came into this season with pretty damn high expectations and those expectations were for them to get back to another SEC Title Game under Mark Richt. Well...we all know that didn't happen but the Bulldogs somehow got things together, made it to the former Peach Bowl and are back here trying to win their first Bowl Game since the 2003 Capital One Bowl. From a betting perspective of this game, I know a lot of people are going to be on Georgia based on what Florida State did to UCLA the other night and it does make sense. However, Virginia Tech's defense matches up well with Georgia's defense so this thing ultimately comes down to who can score the more points and who won games more convincingly this season. At one point in the season, Georgia lost to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky all in the span of five weeks and that was enough to get the critics going.The Bulldogs rallied from those losses and ended the year on a 2-0 run beating Georgia Tech and Auburn in two exciting games. The Bulldogs 3-2 ATS away from this season and Mark Richt has probably dreamed of the day he could face Frank Beamer in a big Bowl Game. The Bulldogs come into this thing having scored 24.7 points per game this season. They scored those points by averaging 321.1 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. Virginia Tech's defense was once again #1 overall in the Country as they allowed only 9.3 points per game on only 221.1 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play. On the ground, the Bulldogs have three stud RB's in Lumpkin, Ware and Brown as well as freshman QB Matthew Stafford who can definitely run with the ball. However, Virginia Tech is allowing only 92.9 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry so Stafford might be forced to throw more than the coaching staff wants him to. Stafford was okay this season but he completed only 53.6% of his passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt and tossed 6 touchdown passes but 12 interceptions. That won't work against Bud Foster's defense who have 28 sacks on the year. The Hokie DB's are definitely TOP 10 in the Country and tonight you will all be introduced to Victor Harris and Xavier Adibi who combined for 7 INT's on the year and who ball hawk like no other. VT is allowing opposing QB's to complete only 51.9% of their passes this season for 5.2 yards per pass attempt so you can forget about Stafford being successful. The Hokies have forced 22 fumbles on the year while Georgia has fumbled 22 times and lost 16 of them. Georgia could win on defensive plays but their offense won't be effective enough in the early going of this game when it matters most.
I am guessing the right move here would be to avoid the obvious bet and take Georgia because of their underachieving ways in 2006. However, logic has not worked well for me this Bowl Season so I will stick to my gut feeling and that gut feeling tells me that Virginia Tech is too good for Georgia and that the difference in this game will be Bud Foster's ability to prepare for a game of this magnitude and impress in doing so. I say that because for the second straight season, Foster's defense has been #1 overall in the Country and that transpired into a 35-24 Gator Bowl win over Louisville last year so why shouldn't it transfer into snother Virginia Tech trashing against the Bulldogs? It won't be a blowout like some people think because Georgia is too good a team for that and they like to keep things close against mediocre offenses. However,the Hokies were unstoppable in the second half of the season. If Frank Beamer and his guys want to start being respected (most people don't know they have 10 wins on the year), they have to start doing a lot better than they did against Boston College on National TV. This game will no doubt come down to Special Teams plays and Virginia Tech has the better punter, while Georgia have the better returerns. Should be a great game but I'll take Bud Foster's defense in this one. Hopefully this isn't a sucker bet.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning record.
Virginia Tech 26, Georgia 19
:cheers:
