MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-47.60 Units)
Based on the fact that I had a winning season but still came out in the minus, I decided to play each Bowl Game for about the same amount and see if I could get some type of money management control going.
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2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-47.60 Units)
Based on the fact that I had a winning season but still came out in the minus, I decided to play each Bowl Game for about the same amount and see if I could get some type of money management control going.
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Tuesday, December 19, San Diego
Northern Illinois Huskies +12.5 (10 Units)
The Northern Illinois Huskies were supposed to be in the MAC Championship Title Game once again this season but things never really panned out the way they were supposed to and the Huskies missed out on a chance to redeem their 2005 shocking loss to Akron. Luckily enough for these guys, they were still invited to a Bowl Game considering that non-MAC Title Game teams don't usually get invited to Bowl Games. However, Bowl Game organizers recognized a good team in Northern Illinois so it was worth a shot invinting the Nation's leading rusher to a beautiful city like San Diego. The Huskies, although not MAC Champions this year, did beat MAC Title Game winners Central Michigan by a 31-10 score in November and they did come close to beating Iowa as a 16.5 point underdog. Looking back on past seasons, the Huskies are now 9-2 ATS as double digit underdogs over the last two seasons (their only loss this year coming against Ohio State). The Huskies are also no strangers to playing against ranked teams as they covered the spread against Michigan last year, almost beat Maryland the year before and beat both Alabama and Maryland in 2003. I don't trust Northern Illinois in MAC play but Joe Novak has always been a good non-conference coach, leading the Huskies to a 17-9 ATS non-conference record. The Huskies are averaging 27.0 points per game this season on 388.5 total yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. TCU's defense is ranked #4 in the Country this season as they have allowed only 12.8 points per game on 249.5 total yards and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Garett Wolfe led the Nation with 1900 rushing yards and the Huskies averaged 180.2 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. TCU has the #4 ranked rush defense in College Football but let's take a look at who they have faced this season. The Horned Frogs did a good stopping the run against guys who rushed for 479, 715, 817, 890, 546, 654, 610, 519, 1132, 764, 305 and 784 total rushing yards on the year. New Mexico's Rodney Ferguson was the best RB they faced all season and he rushed for 768 yards less than Wolfe in 2006. Onto the passing attack. Northern Illinois is going to have to use QB Dan Nicholson in this game but that's not the end of the world. Sure he tossed 3 int's in the last game of the season but Nicholson has a very strong arm and he passed for 320 yards in a game versus CMU last season. He also finished last year having started 3 games, passing for 831 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 int's. This is Nicholson's big chance to step up and make a name for himself. The offensive line has done a good job this season which is good news because TCU are averaging 2.6 sacks per game this season and when Nicholson gets the chance to throw the ball, he has to have the proper time to do it. The Frogs allow only 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season but I see them being bent a little bit in this game. Northern Illinois fumbled only 10 times (losing only 4) this season and they are a very disciplined team with 5.2 penalties per game. I like the Huskies to keep this game close.
The TCU Horned Frogs are happy to be in this Bowl Game but i'm pretty sure they would much rather be in Fort Worth playing in the Armed Forces Bowl on December 23. I don't know how much the players and coaches actually care about this or not but regardless, it is not why I am taking Northern Illinois in this game. The so called experts are all over TCU to crush the Huskies in this game but they were also all over Iowa and Ohio State to crush the Huskies, but neither game saw any kind of crushing. TCU went 10-2 on the year (8-3 ATS). I have to say that apart from two games this season, TCU was pretty damn impressive in all their games. However, the Horned Frogs played against only one, what I consider a TOP 40 team this season and that was against BYU and they lost 31-17. It's just tough to get a feel for how they will perform in this game because my initial feeling for this game is that Northern Illinois will be the more motivated side. Patterson admitted earlier this week that it was tough to prepare for Northern Illinois because they had not faced a team like that all season. The closest he said was New Mexico and they held TCU's offense to under 200 yards and TCU won 27-21. The Horned Frogs are averaging 28.6 points per game this season on 402.2 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. Northern Illinois defense allowed only 19.8 points per game this season on 348.8 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. They did however allow only 27 total points in their last three games, a great way to head into a Bowl Game. On the ground, TCU rushes for 191.9 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. NIU did a good job against the run this season allowing 107.3 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. QB Jeff Ballard is playing his last game ever and he's had an outstanding career. Ballard completed 61.4% of his passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt but only 12 touchdowns. Northern Illinois weakness is their secondary but like I said, TCU loves to run the ball and Ballard has a 25-12 TD/INT ratio the last two seasons which is not that great. The Huskies have done a great job forcing and recovering fumbles this season as they have forced 22 fumbles (recovered 14) while TCU has fumbled a whopping 23 times and lost 14 of them. The Horned Frogs also average 16 more yards in penalties per game and that one key turnover could be the difference in this game. This game probably won't be that high scoring and TCU doesn't usually have much unless they come out firing hard, which I don't see happening after the layoff.
This is not about fading the public anymore. Sure everyone is on TCU in this game but this is more about the stats telling lies on the TCU defense. I mean sure they are #4 in the Country defending the run and that's great, but I just noticed that they average almost 20 first half points per game this season which makes it obvious why teams don't run against them (because they are playing from behind). Joe Novak and John Bond know how much this game means to RB Garrett Wolfe and they are not about to give up on the run if it doesn't work early. He is 100 yards away from the 2000 mark and most teams that have a 100 yard rusher against TCU the last few years, have beaten them. I don't know if the Huskies can win this game but I am banking on them coming close and possibly coming up short on a late game winning drive.
Trend of the Game: Northern Illinois is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs.
TCU 26, Northern Illinois 18
:cheers:
