MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 28-22-2 (+93.90 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 26-19-2 (+99.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 3 weeks: 20-11-2 ATS (+128.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. Yeah right! LOL!
----------------------------------
Saturday, September 29
Louisiana State Tigers -41.5 (5 Units)
I know a lot of you are going to call this a look-ahead spot for the LSU Tigers but as much as it seems like it, I don't think Les Miles and his crew are going to take this game lightly. The Tigers are coming off a 28-16 win over Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Gamecocks but they failed to cover the spread for the first time this season and teams that are supposed to be National Champion contenders don't fail to cover many spreads. I mean look no further than the last few times these two teams have met (all in Baton Rouge) where LSU won by 42 (last year), 31 (in 2005) and 18 (in 2004). Nothing too impressive because both teams are in-state and both teams look forward to this game but the point is that having won by 42 last year and having their best team in years this year, LSU is set to inflict some serious damage in this one. They beat Middle Tennesse by 44, Virginia Tech by 41 and Mississippi State by 45. So why the hell not beat Tulane by that many points coming off somewhat of a mediocre game? The Tigers come into this game averaging 41.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 452.5 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. Tulane's defense has been atrocious allowing 33.0 points per game this season on 445.0 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play which should allow LSU to do pretty much whatever they want. On the ground, LSU has managed 245.8 rushing yards per game this season on 5.4 yards per carry which is great news for RB Keiland Williams seeing how Tulane is allowing 176.7 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Once the ground attack gets going, the passing game should flourish under QB Matt Flynn who has completed 56.9% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Tulane's pass defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete a whopping 66.4% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The way LSU has played this season their defense will probably get them the ball back several times in this one and I fully expect the offense to score on almost all of their possessions as they play here for the first time since 1994. The Tigers should have no problems scoring and don't forget this is like a home game for them.
The Tulane Green Wave were being hailed as one of the most improved teams in the Country before the season started but I find that hard to believe considering that they have a brand new head coach and up until their I-A game last weekend, they had not looked good in their first two games and are 0-2 ATS on the season. Tulane is going to be jacked up for this game, no doubt about that, seeing how this is their first ever Nationally Televised football game on ESPN and it comes against cross state rivals LSU. The Green Wave were embarassed 38-17 in their opening game against Mississippi State this season and they followed that up with a 34-10 loss to Houston as +15 point underdogs. They even had problems getting by SE Louisiana last week beating them only 35-27 in yet another home game. Tulane has now lost 15 straight games against LSU and they have lost those games by an average marging of only 18 points which could work in their favor. However, I don't know that their seasons will get any better against one of the top teams in the Country. To keep up with LSU you have to score points and Tulane is returning only 5 starters so that's going to be a problem. Tulane comes into this game averaging 20.7 points per game which is not all that bad but they average only 322.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. LSU's defense is not something to mess with as they have allowed only 5.8 points per game this season and only 161.5 total yards of offense per game on 2.5 yards per play. On the ground, Tulane won't have much time to run but they do average 143.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Hahah well LSU has allowed only 26.8 rushing yards per game this season on 0.9 yards per carry so Tulane might as well not even try in this one. In the air, QB Scott Elliott has been terrible completing only 45.2% of his passes this season for 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. Screwed? Yeah I would say so seeing how LSU's defense has allowed opponents to complete only 42.0% of their passes this season for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. The Tigers also have 9 interceptions on the season and 16 sacks which can't bode well for Elliott and company. The junior QB has thrown four interceptions and this hungry LSU defense is not about to let this kid run the show at their expense. I don't think this is going to be close and I don't think Tulane can score more than their usual 14 points per game. The points will either come very late or very early but by that time, LSU will be gone with the wind.
This is like a home game for LSU. Not many people come to the Dome and claim to be cheering for Tulane over Louisiana State. The Tigers know that this is a great game to showcase some of their skills, pad some stats and let their fans enjoy another blowout win (seeing how they have beat three of their four opponents by 40+ points). The Tigers have 40 000+ tickets reserved for their fans at this game so make no mistake about it, it's gonna be loud and proud for the Tigers. If you still have concerns about LSU looking forward to next week, and we all know they are, they are 4-1 in their last five games before playing Florida beating Mississippi State by 31 last year, Vanderbilt by 28 in 2005 and Mississippi State by 35 in 2003. All the Tigers have to do in this game is show up, play some defense, show off on offense and the lights won't stay on for long. Tulane is just too inexperienced on both offense and defense to compete in this game as they are still learning how to run things under Bob Toledo and that is going to take a lot more time than just this week. LSU is one of the best teams in the Country and they are going to show why in this game.
Trend of the Game: LSU is 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite.
LSU 58, Tulane 14
Maryland Terrapins +18.5 (10 Units)
The Maryland Terrapins have yet to show what they are really all about this season as they come into this game with a 2-2 record having beat only Villanova (I-A) and Florida International and having lost to both West Virginia and Wake Forest. So things are not going well in ATS land as they are 0-3 against the spread but every team starts turning things around at some point in the season and I think this is where the Terps get things done. If you look back on seasons past you will notice that Maryland has been pretty damn good when playing back-to-back road games (2nd game is always better) as they have they beat Duke by 34 in 2004, beat North Carolina by 3 as underdogs in 2005 and beat Virginia by 2 last year all in the second of back-to-back road games. It has been a really long time since these two teams have met and I don't think Maryland is going to come in here to get embarassed. The losses to Wake Forest and West Virginia were competitive ones but the youth on this team started to show and in both games the Terps failed to come from behind after valiant efforts. This is the same Maryland team that came into the season with an okay 13-8 ATS record the last seven years as a road underdog. The Terrapins come into this game averaging only 23.8 points per game this season on only 320.5 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play. Rutgers is an even tougher test for this team as the Scarlet Knights allow only 9.0 points per game this season on 215.3 total yards of offense and 3.3 yards per play. Thats good stuff but Maryland can keep things close. The Terps average 161.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season and since Rutgers has allowed 111.3 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry this season, I don't think the Terps are going to run much. That leaves things in the hands of QB Jordan Steffy who has completed 69.6% of his passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt but has made bad decisions and has thrown only 1 touchdown pass to 4 interceptions. However the Terps have to use more of him. Rutgers has allowed their opponents to complete only 50.7% of their passes this season for 4.3 yards per pass attempt so it might be tough for Steffy but I think this offense is going to get creative here. Rutgers is quick out of the blocks and they do have 4 interceptions on the season but moving the ball fast is going to be key for Steffy. As well as Rutgers has played this season on defense, they have forced only 3 fumbles and have not recovered a single one. That could really come back to haunt them in this game as Maryland shows a whole new gameplan and exposes some Rutgers weaknesses.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still aiming for the BCS Championship and they need to keep winning to make that happen. They are 3-0 on the year and coming off a bye week but they do have some big games coming up and the biggest mistake this team could make would be to think that the Maryland Terrapins are going to be an easy team to beat. The Scarlet Knights are a perfect 2-0 ATS in their two lined games this season and they are now 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite dating back to the last two seasons. However, I really have to point out that Rutgers is 19-53-1 lifetime versus teams from the ACC Conference. Rutgers has games versus Cincinnati and South Florida (the new darkhorse National Title contenders) in coming weeks so this could be a spot where they are looking over Maryland's shoulder and thinking about their gameplan for the new charging bulldozers coming out of the Big East. Maryland is not as bad as some of their numbers indicate and I don't see why the line should be this high. Cincinnati beat Rutgers last year as one of their only two losses so revenge and that game are on a lot of guys minds. The Scarlet Knights come into this game averaging 46.0 points per game this season on 525.3 total yards of offense and 8.6 yards per play but that was against Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State who are some of the worst defenses around. Maryland is pretty damn good and they have held their opponents to 21.5 points per game and 298.8 total yards per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Rutgers and RB Ray Rice are going to pound away like there is no tomorrow as they average 228.3 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry on the year. Maryland's weakness has surprisingly been the run defense as they have allowed 156.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry but I think changes are coming. In the air, QB Mike Teel has completed 66.7% of his passes this season for 15.1 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 1 interception. But keep in mind who they have played against. Maryland has allowed opponents to complete 55.6% of their passes this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt which is good and they have 7 interceptions to go along with 7 sacks. Rutgers has not allowed a sack all season but that can't last. The Terps have also forced 8 fumbles this season and turnovers are going to be the key to this game. Maryland's defense is very capable of winning a game themselves and I think Rutgers is going to make a few too many mistakes in this game.
What the hell kind of line is this anyways? I know Maryland has loooked like complete dog shit in most of thier games this season but they are definitely going to end up in a bowl game before this is all said and done and I like the way they match up with the Scarlet Knights. The Terps have not had much success doing anything on offense this season but Jordan Steffy has plenty of experience and this is the week the mistakes top for him. Rutgers has been known to have brain cramp games in the past and this could very well be another one of those games. This kinda reminds me of the game last year when Maryland went to Georgia Tech as a +14 road underdog and they almost won that game, eventually losing by three points. That or the game when they went to Florida State as +17 point road underdogs and lost the game 35-27. Or the next game where they went to North Carolina as +3 road underdogs and won. So this is a great spot for the Terrapins who can really show that they still have a bit of juice left in the Fridge. Maryland is going to shock the world and sent Rutgers packing with a loss in this game.
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 27-14 ATS since 1993 when coming off two straight up losses.
Maryland 31, Rutgers 24
Texas Longhorns -15 (5 Units)
The Kansas State Wildcats pretty much kickoff their season this week as they take on the Texas Longhorns and I say that because they are coming off the bye week and have had two weeks to recover from a 2-1 start to the season. I was on Texas last year when the Wildcats stunned them 45-42 at home as +16 point underdogs and although the odds look pretty damn tempting this time around as well, I just don't see how Kansas State can peform the same way on the road as they did that day last year in Bill Snyder Stadium. If you look back at their games last season where the Wildcats were underdogs on the road, they got smoked by Missouri as +14 underdogs, beat Colorado as +3 point underdogs and lost by 19 against Kansas as a +2 point underdog. I just don't trust this team to perform well as a road underdog and I actually see Texas coming in today and blowing them out of the water. Kansas State is only 2-7 straight up in their last nine Big 12 road openers so hope of them pulling off the upset again should just be shot down right now. Kansas State lost to a bad Auburn team by 10 points on the road to open the year and that just goes to show what they have been up to away from home. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 36.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 429.0 total yards of offense and 5.9 yards per play. Texas always has a bunch of talent on defense and they have allowed only 18.0 points per game this season and have done so by allowing 310.5 total yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Wildcats have not had problems running the ball as they average 133.7 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. It's gonna be tough for RB James Johnson to do his thing here as Texas has allowed only 87.3 rushing yards per game this season on 2.5 yards per carry and that will force the Wildcats to throw the ball. In the air, QB Josh Freeman has completed 62.9% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions (he had 15 interceptions last season). That could be trouble against a Texas defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 57.2% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Longhorns have a very aggrressive pass rush that has recorded 11 sacks this season and 5 interceptions. Freeman is going to have a pretty damn flawless game to pull this off and I don't think that can happen. Kansas State is lucky to have a 2-1 record this year seeing how they have fumbled the ball 7 times already and Texas will take advantage of that.
The Texas Longhorns are one of those teams that almost always screws me over whether I bet on them or whether I bet against them. Some teams are just like that and they are one of them but what can I do? I was on Texas a few weeks back when they went to UCF and almost lost against a pretty damn good team as -17 points favorites. The Longhorns are now 2-2 ATS this season and are coming off a very big confidence building win against Rice last week by a score of 58-14. Texas is 26-17 ATS over the last seven season as home favorites so this is a place where they have covered a lot of games and Mack Brown has shown several times that he can score well into the 40's and 50's. Since the 2003 season, the Texas Longhorns have scored at least 44 points in each game that was played the week before their big battle with Oklahoma. With the Sooners game on deck next week, Texas is thinking about the Wildcats game only right now because I think they know that beating the Sooners is going to be next to impossible. This is revenge and a lot of guys have a lot of beef with that loss against the Widlcats. The Longhorns come into this game averaging 37.0 points per game on the season on 450.8 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play which is about the same as the Wildcats average. However, Kansas State has allowed 15.7 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 258.3 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play. But wait...check their opponents. Nothing impressive. Texas is going to bring a lot of ground and pound as they average 187.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Kansas State has been very good against the run allowing 68.0 rushing yards per game on 1.9 yards per carry but RB Jamal Charles is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and he will no doubt bust out some big numbers. Once this goes to the air, QB Colt McCoy has completed 67.3% of his passes this season for 1054 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Well Kansas State has only 2 interceptions on the year so that takes this away and despite a heavy dose of pass rush from the Wildcats (13 sacks on the year), the Horns offensive line should hold up as they have allowed only 4 sacks in 4 games. McCoy should have a huge game in this one as the Wildcats have allowed opponents to complete 60.6% of their passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt which is a bit much against the Longhorns. I just can't be money on defenses that are not aggressive like Kansas State with only 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. The Longhorns are going to have plenty of chances to put this game away early and I think they are going to blow the Wildcats out.
Once again the line is a bit baffling. I mean they were -16 last year on the road against this same Kansas State team and now that the game moves back to Austin and now that the game is deemeed a revenge game, the line somehow dips down to -15 and I am biting. Could it be because the Longhorns have not really impressed anyone this season or maybe because they can no longer be trusted by most bettors. I don't think so. The Longhorns need to put a bit of scare into Oklahoma because the way things are going now, I am going to make Oklahoma one of my bigger plays this year next week. The Sooners have been flexing their muscles all over the place this season while Texas has looked good one week and come out with a dinky performance the next week. So this is a great chance for the Longhorns to show the Sooners that they mean big time business. I like Mack Brown to run up the score late and I like this Texas passing attack to finally take flight and avoid making mistakes like they have this season. If Texas wants any chance of winning next week, this is a must blowout.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games when favored by 10.5 points or more.
Texas 31, Kansas State 13
Wisconsin Badgers -7.5 (5 Units)
The Michigan State Spartans are a little bit scary to go against. I say that because Mark Dantonio is a damn good coach who knows how to turn things around big time for certain programs. Look at the job he did in Cincinnati and look at the job he has been doing here. After going 4-8 last season, the Spartans are off to a 4-0 start so they have pretty much matched the amout of wins they had last year. Job accomplished now for Michigan State right? Wrong...coach Dantonio is already talking about winning the Big 10 but this is the one game I think he is going to have problems winning. The Spartans are coming off four games where they were favored in each game yet they are now +7.5 and 2-2 ATS on the year. A lot of people are going to bet on Michigan State in this one hoping to have another repeat performance of the big 2004 upset where the Spartans came in this place and won 49-14 against the #4 ranked Badgers. Well thats not happening this time around. Michigan State has played against four teams who are in full rebuilding mode right now and Wisconsin is in another class compared to those teams. The Spartans come into this game averaging 32.8 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 416.5 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. However, Wisconsin has allowed only 19.5 points per game this season on 309.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Michigan State has been running the ball well all season as they average 200.8 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry but will run into some problems in this game as Wisconsin is allowing only 3.2 yards per carry on 96.8 rushing yards per game. That will force QB Brian Hoyer to throw a lot more than he has this season. Hoyer has not yet been exposed for the inexperienced player that he is as he has completed only 57.1% of his passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Wisconsin's defense is pretty damn good at home as they have allowed opponents to complete only 58.8% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Wisconsin defense has been a bit too quiet for my liking this year so I think that they are going to force some turnovers in this one (no recoverd fumbles yet) and I think Michigan State is going to have problems protecting Hoyer long enough to keep him away from making mistakes.
The Wisconsin Badgers can probably still be considered National Title contenders after starting the season 4-0 and winning some of their games in convincing fashion...well not really seeing how they are 1-2 ATS on the year but if there ever was a time to make a statement, it would be right now. The Badgers are going to have to hope other teams lose if they want any chance at that BCS title game but for now they can only do their part and thier part would be to win this game big and shoot down all talk of Michigan State winning the Big 10. The Badgers are coming off a very mediocre game against Iowa and I don't think coach Bielema was too happy this week. However, Iowa has always played well in this place and you can't put too much stock into the closeness of that game. The Badgers are now 12-1 straight up in their last 13 Big 10 home openers so unless you're willing to go against that and willing to take Michigan State on the moneyline, go right ahead. The Badgers know how to come out for their fans in confernece home openers and this should be no different. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 31.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 400.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. As well as Michigan State has played, their level of opposition has not been that good and they have allowed 15.5 points per game this season on 265.8 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB PJ Hill and the Badgers have a rushing attack like Michigan State has not seen this season. They are averaging 202.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. I know Michigan State has allowed only 95.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.9 yards per carry but can you name me on running back they have faced this season? Exactly...a bunch of nobodies. In the air, QB Tyler Donovan has completed 60.2% of his passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. I have to admit he has been impressive. Michigan State's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 56.2% of their passes this season for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans defense is not as good as they have played this season which is why I am having a hard time seeing how they are going to stop the Badgers in this one. Wisconsin is now 5-2 ATS as a home favorite under heach coach Bret Bielema and I think the get rid of all doubts and find a way to win this game by a comfortable margin.
Michigan State is good but they are not that good that they can come in here and keep this game close. Wisconsin has been a very good home team under Bret Bielema and after seeing them pull out a very tough win over Iowa last weekend, I think the Badgers are read to flex some muscle within the BIG 10 conference. Looking back at some of the games these two teams have played over the years, apart from their 2004 shocking home loss to the Spartans, Wisconsin has won home games by 35, 30, 31 and 21 points over this Michigan State team and that goes back all the way to 1993. So once again, unless you think Michigan State can actually walk in here with their pedestrian level of opposition, I invite you to take them on the moneyline. Biliema is going to have his guys ready for this game and there is no way Michigan State is going to do to Wisconsin what they have done to opponents this season. Mark Dantonio is a good coach but Camp Randall is not the place he wants to be on Saturday. Wisconsin is notorious in home BIG 10 openers having won 10 of the last 11 and I see the same today. Donovan and his guys have a huge game and win by 10+. Believe it or not, this is all about the Wisconsin defense in this game. Shutout time.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Wisconsin 23, Michigan State 0
California Golden Bears +6.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The California Golden Bears are going to leave it all on the field in this one. This is my largest wager of the season and although some of you may have problems with betting big time on games, believe me when I say that coach Tedford and his guys are going to be ready for this one. The Golden Bears are coming off a 45-27 ass whipping of the Arizona Wildcats at home and for the second time this season they head on the road to play a football game. Forget the games against Colorado State, Louisiana Tech and Arizona. Lets focus more on the game where the National spotlight was shed on them and that was the Tennessee game...a game they easily won 45-31 to open their season. Well that was then and this is now. With a bye week coming up next week, this is by far the biggest game of the Golden Bears season. I know it's tough for a team like California to come to Eugene and to win a game like this seeing how the Ducks are seeking revenge but the line is too high to pass up what should be a classic PAC 10 affaire. You can question this team all you want but one thing is for sure, Jeff Tedford is not about to lose another ATS cover on the road as an underdog (0-3 the last two seasons). The Golden Bears come into this game averaging a whopping 41.5 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 436.0 total yards per game on 6.6 yards per play this season. Oregon's defense has been impressive to start the year but they still allow 21.5 points per game and have also allowed 409.8 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play which is a lot for a team favored by this much in a game like this. On the ground, California has been tearing things up with their 223.0 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The reason I like that is because we saw what some RB's can do to this Ducks defense and I really like that Oregon has struggled against the run this season allowing 164.8 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. RB Justin Forsett could be in for one hell of a game. In the air, QB Nate Longshore has completed 63.3% of his passes this season for 852 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns. Oregon is a lot better against the pass than they are against the run but California provides a dual threat offense that could give the Ducks some headaches depiste the fact that they allow opposing QB's to complete 54.4% of thier passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line for Cal has done a great job all season long allowing only 3 sacks while Longhsore has thrown only 2 interceptions. That's good news because the Ducks pass rush is up to par and they have picked off quite a few passes already this year. I think California unloads some weapons in this game and the Ducks are in for all they can handle against this Jeff Tedord team that returns 13 starters from the blowout win team of last year.
The Oregon Ducks have done all they can to show that they belong amongst the leaders of the PAC 10 but that wont' mean much if they can't win this game. The Ducks were pretty much humiliated by California on the road last season as they lost 45-24 in Berkeley...a loss several of these players have prorbably not forgotten. Don't forget the fact too that Oregon is 4-0 ATS this season having covered each and every game they have played and on top of that they have scored 39 points or more in each and everyone of their games while beating Michigan, Houston, Fresno State and Stanford. Nothing special but still something to build on. So another way to look at this game would be to say that the winner gets a crack at the PAC 10 lead with USC and the loser gets to pack his bags until next year and hope they can do better in 2008. I know the home team has been winning the games in this series the last four times out there but keep in mind that the last two times California came to Eugene, they lost by 7 in overtime and lost 4 points in 2003. So they know how to play here and they sure know what it takes to beat the Ducks. Oregon comes into this game averaging a crazy 48.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 536.8 total yards of offense per game on 7.3 yards per play. California's defense lacks experience but they have done a decent job allowing 24.5 points per game on 365.8 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. If anything...its much better than what Oregon has done defensively. On the ground, the Ducks are going to run, run and run some more with QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart as they average 299.8 rushing yards per game this season on a whopping 6.2 yards per carry. Well Calirfornia's defensive line has been outstanding as they have held opponents to 107.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.4 yards per carry. I think that's going to be enough to slow down the Ducks rushing attack and force Dixon to throw more than he probably wants to. Dixon has completed 68.8% of his passes this season for 9.7 yards per pass attempt and a whopping 11 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. I don't doubt for a minute that Oregon can score some points and move the ball through the air and I say that because California's secondary has allowed opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. However, they have a very good pass rush that has 14 sacks on the year and the biggest problems for Oregon has been protecting Dixon enough as they have allowed 8 sacks on the year. Dixon has yet to make a mistake this season but the Golden Beats have 7 interceptions on the season and they have forced 7 fumbles. This game is going to be about scoring but I think California's defense is going to make the bigger plays in this game.
Oregon has pretty much dominated this damn series since is started and the Ducks have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Jeff Tedford is not an idiot and if anyone knows Mike Bellotti better than most others, it's coach Tedford because he was his offensive cooordinator back in the late 1990's. You may think this is just another PAC 10 game of the week to watch on TV but its a lot more than that. The Golden Bears are defending BIG 10 champions while the Ducks are one of the hottest teams in the Country right now and one of the most up-and-coming programs this season. However, I don't see this game being a runaway one way or another, if anything it's going to be a very open and close game where both teams match each other score for score. California has not yet proven themselves on the road but this is a great chance to do it. I am making this my largest wager of the year because I think Nate Longshore and Justin Forsett are both very capable of outshining Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart. They did it last year and even if they don't win this game, I don't see this being won by more than 3 points. The Golden Bears are a better team than they get credit for and its time to show why. GO GOLDEN BEARS!
Trend of the Game: California is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
California 38, Oregon 28
<ST1
Florida State Seminoles -2 (5 Units)
The Alabama Crimson Tide thought they had it all when the signed Nick Saban to coach this football team and they thought they had it all when he led them to a 3-0 record to open the season. Well that all came crashing to a halt last week when one wheel fell off the Bama wagon as the Tide lost 26-23 to Georgia. After beating down on opponents like Western Carolina, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, the Crimson Tide were engaged in a full out war last week and I don't know that they can recover in time to enter the tomahawk chop land. Alabama is now 1-2 ATS this season and 3-1 straight up but if they lose another game there could be problems in Saban land. The side plot in this one is that Florida State's offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher used to work for Nick Saban and it's going to be interesting to see how much Saban uses that to his advantage. With so many guys back on offense, Saban doesn't have a problem scoring points this season but he does have a problem keeping them scored against. This is a game Alabama cannot really afford to lose seeing how they have Tennessee and LSU on deck in the next few weeks but put it this way too...Alabama has Houston and Ole Miss coming up the next two games and that could have them a bit too relaxed. The Crimson Tide come into this game averaging 35.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 436.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Now that's an offense. However Florida State's defense has allowed only 18.0 points per game this season and they have done it by allowing 305.3 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Alabama has pounded the ball away all season to the tune of 205.3 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. Florida State's run defense is pretty damn good as they have allowed only 74.7 rushing yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry. That is going to put a lot more pressure on QB John Parker Wilson who has only been mediocre this season completing 54.1% of his passes on the year for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Florida State pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 57.0% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season. The pass rush is not what it used to be for the Seminoles but their defense does make big plays when they have to and they do come up big in games like this. I know Alabama's season is pretty much on the line in this game but they are not quite ready to win a big game like this one and their loss last week was a bad one that might take a few more games to recover from. I think Alabama is going to finish with a good record but I think the loss last week at home deflated them enough that they won't have the goods in this game. I am calling for another poor offensive performance from Saban's guys, somethign that will be corrected and adjusted next week.
The Florida State Seminoles have showns us faces this season and although their 16-6 road win over Colorado last week wasn't that impressive for many, it went a long way for me showing that they can cover spreads like the -4.5 as a road favorite and telling me that this team is probably going to start playing like they should have been playing at the start of the season. There is no doubt on anyone's minds that Florida State has the talent to be a National Title Contender. Although all that hope is now gone with their loss to Clemson in the opening game, the talent has not gone anywhere and the Seminoles are still one of the most skilled teams in the Country. Well now is the time to show what you can do. This game is being played in Jacksonville in the Alltel stadium which means that a lot of fans are going to get to see the Noles outside of Tallahassee. Although this is like a home game for Florida State, it is still considered a NEUTRAL field because of the location and the Seminoles are 3-0 straight up on Neutral fields over the last seven seasons. With the real conference play starting next week, I think Jimbo Fisher and company are going to lay it all on the line for this game. The Seminoles come into this game averaging only 22.7 points per game on the season and they have done that on 332.3 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Alabama's defense has not impressed me at all this season as they have allowed 20.0 points per game and have allowed 326.5 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. Okay it's not as bad as I thought but they have allowed too many points per game for my liking. On the ground, Florida State is averaging 132.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.6 yards per carry this season but they should have a shot seeing how the run defense on Alabama is not that good and opposing teams have unloaded 146.8 rushing yards on them per game on 3.7 yards per carry. Once this thing moves to the air, QB Drew Weatheford better be ready. He has completed only 54.0% of his passes this season for 600 yards, 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns with 1 interception. Alabama's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 48.8% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt so things could get tough on Weatherford. The key in this game is to get run game going early and make sure you open things up in the passing attack. The only way Drew Weatheford is going to be stymied is if the Alabama can get a good pass rush going. Well the Tide has only 4 sacks on the season and Weatheford will be happy to hear that seeing how he has been sacked 8 times in three games. The Seminoles are not the most effective offensive team but they do feast of their defensive abilities and like I said before, I think their big win over Colorado two weeks ago went a long way to showing that this team is growing and that they are ready to take the next step here.
CHOP! CHOP! CHOP! I love that song...and I love when they all chop. Although this game is being played in Jacksonville and not in Tallahassee, the choppers are going to come out in full blitz for this one to welcome Nick Saban back to the state of Florida. We have been hearing all week about the many many coaching subplots in this game but I don't think it's going to affect the way these guys are going to play. The big win over Colorado last week probably gave this Seminoles some new life and probably gave them hope that the ACC Conference Championship game is still within reach for these guys. The big x-factor for me in this game is the fact that Florida State has had two weeks to prepare for this game while sitting at home and relaxing while Alabama is coming off a devastating overtime home loss to Georgia last week and they have only had the one week to prepare for this game. Florida State is no doubt going to come out firing on all cylinder with Jimbo Fisher calling the shots here and after they build a lead, I think their defense can hold down the fort long enough to win this game by more than 2 points. This is the day Florida State re-asserts themselves into the race for the ACC Championship game.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Florida State 24, Alabama 3
Auburn Tigers +17.5 (10 Units)
The Auburn Tigers have already been counted out by just about everyone in this Country and had it not been for the end result of some of their games this season, I don't think there is a chance in hell we would be seeing a line like this. SEC was considered one of the prime contenders to win the SEC WEST before the season started but their losses to South Florida and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks ended all hope of that happening pending some kind of miracle. But wait a minute, that loss to South Florida doesn't look all that bad anymore does it? South Florida is actually being considered a darkhorse National Title contender right now so there is no shame in losing to them. Auburn was the one and only team to beat Florida in 2006 even though they won the national championship and that has to still be on the minds of the returning 12 starters who now know for a fact that they match up well with the Gators and who know for a fact that Tommy Tuberville can be back in SEC West contention if he pulls off a win here and a few others down the line. This won't be easy but it can most definitely be done. The Tigers come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 332.5 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play. Florida's defense is young but has done a decent job holding opponents to 19.5 points per game on 307.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. On the ground, Auburn has averaged only 158.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry and things probably won't improve in this one against a Florida defense that has been stingy against the run allowing only 54.5 rushing yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry. That means that QB Brandon Cox is going to have to have a great game. He has completed only 53.3% of his passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. However, Florida's pass defense has yet to be exposed as a bit soft as they have allowed opponents to complete 60.3% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. The Gators do have 4 interceptions on the season but their pass rush has not been effective enough to really bother Cox like other teams have this season and that could be the difference in this game. I like the experience that Auburn has though in that they beat Florida at home last year and Brandon Cox was the one who led them there. I think he is going to have his best game of the season and Auburn is going to raise some serious eyebrows tonight.
The Florida Gators don't really need to be told that the SEC East is up for grabs this season and that they are the ones who should easily bring home the bacon but you have to wonder when the hell is this team going to fall a step back from their championship form and look like the team that is returning only 8 starters combined on both offense and defense? Well I think we started to see things fizzle away a bit last week in their 30-24 win over Ole Miss as -23.5 point favorites. I know it's tough to go against a team that is 2-0 ATS at home this season as a favorite and that plays in one of the toughest home stadiums in all of college football but that doesn't change the fact that the last three games between these two schools have been decided by 10 points or less and there is a good chance that Auburn pushes the Gators right to the brink in this one too. Florida used to dominate this series with Auburn but they are 0-3 ATS the last three seasons against them and with the LSU road game coming up next week, im pretty sure the Gators are going to fall asleep at times in this game and let the Tigers hang around. Florida comes into this game averaging 49.3 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 517.8 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.7 yards per play. Auburn has been pretty good defensively allowing only 19.5 points per game (same as Florida) on 306.8 total yards of offense and only 4.2 yards per play (both better than Florida) so they really do have a shot in this game. On the ground, we all know Tim Tebow can run the damn ball and we know that Florida has averaged 237.5 rushing yards per game this season on 5.6 yards per carry. Well Auburn's defense has been run on about 37+ times per game and allowed only 3.2 yards per carry and 119.0 rushing yards per game which should really slow the Gators down. In the air, Tebow has completed 68.4% of his passes on the year for 1096 passing yards, 11.5 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 1 interception. WOW! Auburn's defense has allowed opponents to complete 56.8% of their passes this season but have allowed only 5.1 yards per pass attempt so once again Florida won't be getting huge yardage gains in this one, everything will have to be grinded out which usually indicates a close game. The Tigers have 5 interceptions on the season and have forced 6 fumbles so there is hope that they force turnovers against the Gators and make things a lot easier for their offense to start with good field position. Florida is a very good team but they might be caught snoozing in this one against a team that has almost always showed up to play against them in recent years.
UPSET BABY! I smell and I want a piece of it. Florida has looked untouchable since winning their BCS title earlier this year but now they have LSU on the board next weekend in Baton Rouge and I can guarantee you that a bunch of these guys are already thinking about that game next week. I mean pffffff who the hell is Auburn anyways right? You know they're only the team that has beat Florida in two of their last three meetings and the team that is 7-2 ATS as road underdogs since the 2002 season. The SEC is like that actually...no matter what you have done all season and no matter who you have beat or played against, these games can come down to the wire and upsets can happen all the time. Auburn is still one of the most talented teams in the SEC this season and I really would not count them out of this game too early. Florida is going to keep things simple wanting to come away with a win only and no injuries and no revealed gameplan for the LSU game so expect a lot of running and plays calls designed to keep the playclock moving and keep the Tigers off the field as much as possible. Auburn should put up a good fight and I think they can pull off the upset with an overtime FG.
Trend of the Game: Florida is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when favored by more than 10.5 points.
Auburn 34, Florida 31
Washington Huskies +20 (10 Units)
Wow...never thought I would be going against the USC Trojans at any point this week but I really have a sinking feeling that my boys are going down in this game. In what should be another one of the great matchups of the week this week, USC takes their act to Seattle to take on the Huskies, their fans and coach Willingham who has done a fine job this season. The Trojans come into this game with a 2-1 ATS record and are coming off a big 47-14 home win over Washington State last weekend but don't put too much stock into that win. USC won their two road games by 28 points and 18 points this season so I don't know why so many people think hitting and winning by 20 points is going to be that easy. USC was lucky to escape their home game against the Huskies last season as Washington went down to the USC 15 yard line down by six points and with :02 left in the game but they never got another play off and the clock just expired. USC is only 17-15 ATS over the last seven seasons as a road favorite so that doesn't tell us much. They don't have many look ahead games on their schedule right now but based on the way Washington has played this season, it won't be easy to beat them by that many points. The Trojans come into this game averaging 44.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 462.0 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.4 yards per play. Washington's defense has shown signs of brilliance at times this year but they still allow 24.8 points per game on 403.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, USC has a scary number of guys who can really do some damage as they have averaged 244.7 rushing yards per game this season on a crazy 6.3 yards per pass attempt. However, Washington run defense has held their ground and despite allowing 176.8 total rushing yards per game on the year, they have managed to hold opponents to an alright 4.5 yards per carry which should slow the Trojans down just a bit. In the air, QB John David Booty has completed 70.1% of his passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions which is good but nothing really special. Washington's pass defense is a bend but dont break kind of defense as they have alllowed opponents to complete 59.7% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt but have made some big stops along the way. The Huskies defensive line is big and strong and have 9 sacks on the year. One of the biggest problems I have with betting on the Trojans is the fact that they have fumbled the ball 7 times in three games and against a team like Washington and in this kind of atmosphere, trust me you don't want to be losing the ball at bad times. USC is going to struggle and the more they struggle, the more the chances that Washington can pull off the straight up win.
The Washington Huskies had a dream to start to this season as they kicked things off 2-0 with wins in Syracus and at home against Boise State but the wheels started falling off the wagon a bit in their home loss to Ohio State which was then followed by a brutal road loss to the punchless UCLA Bruins. So who the hell are the Huskies and which one of those two teams is going to show up in this one? Willingham was furious with their effort last week and believe me when I say that he probably ran these guys into the ground in practice this week. We are talking about a Washington team that play in a very tough stadium for opponents. I know the Huskies have dropped five straight against USC but the fact that they came within a few seconds of beating them in their own home last year really has me believing that they can use a similar type of gameplan in this game and possibly pull off the big upset. The wins over Syracus and Boise State were definitely not flukes but the Huskies have been flustered ever since one or two plays changed their game against Ohio State for the bad and now its time to forget about that stuff and start what Willingham called their 'new season'. The Huskies come into this game averaging 27.8 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 368.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play this season. USC's defense is pretty damn good this season but they have still allowed 18.3 points per game this season on 306.7 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play which should allow the Huskies to move the ball at times. On the ground, Washington has done a great job running the ball with QB sensation Locker and RB Louis Rankin as they average 175.3 rushing yards per game this season and have done that on 4.8 yards per carry. USC has a very good defensive line and they have allowed only 2.2 yards per carry on the year for 64.3 rushing yards per game. That will force Locker to really get going on his feet and he is going to have to be efficient passing the ball too. Locker has completed only 53.1% of his passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns passes and 6 interceptions. Well the Trojans pass defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 55.3% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt so the Huskies are going to have to be creative and create some space in this one. The offensive line has done a great job holding opponents to only 4 sacks in four games this season so Locker doesn't have an excuse for not moving the ball in time. Washington is a lot more disciplined this season than the Trojans have been this season and when you're playing at home against one of the best teams in the Country, that usually goes a long way. Washington is going to keep this game close and much like last year, either give the Trojans a title hope ending loss or they might come really close to doing it.
What I don't get here is why so many people have given up on Washington so fast? I mean the Huskies and Jake Locker were being hailed as one of the best PAC 10 teams after beating both Boise State and Syracuse earlier this season but the oddsmakers and bettors have jumped ship on this team and now they are 20 point underdogs at home. Well that's a big mistake if you ask me because they were leading in the second half of the Ohio State game before letting things fall apart and making the score look like a bigger blowout than it really was. Then they went on the road and got blown out by UCLA but people seem to forget that Washington has won something like only 13 road games in 30+ tries over the course of the last seven seasons so the loss came as no shock to anyone. Jake Locker is a special kid who can make things happen on his feet and much like they do almost every season, USC is probably going to fall asleep at some point in this ball game leaving the door wide open for the Huskies to make an approach and make this interesting. I am calling for Jake Locker to once again grab the attention of the Nation and Locker alone can make this a two horse race for the BCS Championship game.
Trend of the Game: USC is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when favored by 10.5 points or more.
Washington 35, Southern California 32
Ohio State Buckeyes -24 (5 Units)
The Ohio State Buckeyes are not my favorite team to bet on when it comes to large spreads like this one played in front of a national tv audience late on a Saturday night but I just couldn't resist the thoughts of them coming to the Gopher Dome and threatening to score 80+ points. Ohio State started off a bit slow this season beating a I-A team by only 32 points and then following that up with a 20-2 win over Akron as -28 point favorites but they have since picked up the pace big time and are now 2-0 ATS in their last two games beating Washington and Northwestern by a combined total of 70 points. What that tells me is that Jim Tressel has these guys by the bullhorns and he finally has them playing the way he has wanted them to play all season. Ohio State has not lost in the MetroDome since 1981 meaning they have now won 10 straight games in this stadium. Ohio State is now 7-2 ATS the last two seasons when favored in a road game and I don't see why they would stop now. Not many people are talking about these guys in National Title talks but if they can run the table this year, and I think they can, they should most definitely be considered as one of the top teams in this Country. The Buckeye come into this game averaging 37.3 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 418.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. Minnesota's defense has been atrocious and they have allowed 38.5 points per game this season and have done that by allowing 543.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play. OUCH! On the ground, the Buckeyes have a very efficient running attack that should do even better on this surface as they average 203.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.8 yards per carry. Minnesota has allowed 135.5 rushing yards per game this season for 4.2 yards per carry and I think the Buckeyes running game is going to soften up the Gophers enough to let them bomb away in the air. QB Todd Boeckman has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Minnesota's pass defense is terrible as opponents have completed 62.8% of their passes against them this season for a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt so don't think for one second that coach Tressel is not going to showcase some of his guys and run up the score in this one. The Gophers don't make plays on defense as they have forced only 1 fumble all season and have only 5 interceptions to show for it. This game is going to get ugly in a hurry and the Buckeyes are going to score their highest point total in a lot of years.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are bad and they aren't just bad, they are THAT BAD! I mean we are talking about a team that can score some points and that has some serious weapons on offense but the same team that cannot stop any opponents from scoring and that's scary thought for them coming into this game. Minnesota is a pathetic 0-4 ATS on the season having lost barely escaped games against Miami Ohio and Bowling Green earlier this season as favorites and having lost their latest game against Purdue by 14 points. It's hard to bet against a team like the Gophers that can put some serious points up on the board but like I said before, we are now into BIG 10 Conference play where blowouts are likely going to happen as coaches want to make statements game in and game out. Minnesota has won only 4 of their 23 all time home games against the Buckeyes and the Gophers are now only 4-8 ATS as home underdogs over the course of the last seven seasons. I don't know that they are going to come into this game with the hopes of winning but I do know that most of the guys on this team are looking ahead to two much easier road games coming up in following weeks. The Gophers come into this game averaging 35.5 points per game which makes it tough to go against them as they also average 487.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play. However, Ohio State has allowed only 7.3 points per game this season, by far the best defense the Gophers have seen, and they have also allowed only 185.3 total yards of offense against them for only 3.1 yards per play. The Minnesota offense relies almost 100% on the effectiveness of their running attack as they average 229.8 rushing yards per game this season on 5.5 yards per carry. As good as they have been, Ohio State is not the kind of team you want to run on as they have allowed only 2.2 yards per carry this season and only 65.0 rushing yards per game. That means that everything is on QB Adam Weber to make some plays in the air. He has completed 58.6% of his passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. WOW! Ohio State's defense is pretty damn tough to pass against as they have allowed opponents to complete only 52.1% of their passes this season for only 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means that Weber and company are going to have a tough time keeping up with the Buckeyes scoring in this game. Seeing how Weber has thrown two interceptions per game this season and the Buckeyes have picked off 5 passes on the season, I think Ohio State is going to force enough turnovers to really pull away with this game in the second half. On top throwing the ball away twice per game, Minnesot has also lost 8 fumbles on the season which means another two per game and which means Ohio State is going to get the ball back on offense a lot more often than they ever expected. Minnesota is a disaster.
The Minnesota Gophers, and you cannot argue with me here, are by far the worst team in a very weak BIG 10 Conference this season and if that's not enough to convince you to fade them in this game then I suggest you move onto the next one. They are 0-4 ATS on the season, they are throwing 2.0 interceptions per game this season, they have lost 2.0 fumbles per game this season and they look like they have no idea what's going on out there under the guidance of new head coach Tim Brewster. Jim Tressel really doesn't give a rats ass what state this football program is in nowadays because he heads into this game having blown out several opponents on the road over the course of the last few years. Tressel knows that if Ohio State is going to go undefeated this season they are going to need some style points and some losses by other teams to have a shot at the BCS Championship game so winning these games by 40+ points is something that needs to be done. Last season the Buckeyes won by 17 in Texas, by 21 in Iowa, by 31 in Michigan State and by 44 in Northwestern do don't tell me they can't win this game by four touchdowns or more. No chance...Buckeyes roll.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
Ohio State 70, Minnesota 38
WEEKLY RECAP
Louisiana State -41.5
Maryland +18.5
Texas -15
Wisconsin -7.5
California +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Florida State -2
Auburn +17.5
Washington +20
Ohio State -24
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS WEEK!
<!-- / message -->
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 26-19-2 (+99.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 3 weeks: 20-11-2 ATS (+128.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. Yeah right! LOL!
----------------------------------
Saturday, September 29
Louisiana State Tigers -41.5 (5 Units)
I know a lot of you are going to call this a look-ahead spot for the LSU Tigers but as much as it seems like it, I don't think Les Miles and his crew are going to take this game lightly. The Tigers are coming off a 28-16 win over Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Gamecocks but they failed to cover the spread for the first time this season and teams that are supposed to be National Champion contenders don't fail to cover many spreads. I mean look no further than the last few times these two teams have met (all in Baton Rouge) where LSU won by 42 (last year), 31 (in 2005) and 18 (in 2004). Nothing too impressive because both teams are in-state and both teams look forward to this game but the point is that having won by 42 last year and having their best team in years this year, LSU is set to inflict some serious damage in this one. They beat Middle Tennesse by 44, Virginia Tech by 41 and Mississippi State by 45. So why the hell not beat Tulane by that many points coming off somewhat of a mediocre game? The Tigers come into this game averaging 41.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 452.5 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. Tulane's defense has been atrocious allowing 33.0 points per game this season on 445.0 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play which should allow LSU to do pretty much whatever they want. On the ground, LSU has managed 245.8 rushing yards per game this season on 5.4 yards per carry which is great news for RB Keiland Williams seeing how Tulane is allowing 176.7 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. Once the ground attack gets going, the passing game should flourish under QB Matt Flynn who has completed 56.9% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Tulane's pass defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete a whopping 66.4% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The way LSU has played this season their defense will probably get them the ball back several times in this one and I fully expect the offense to score on almost all of their possessions as they play here for the first time since 1994. The Tigers should have no problems scoring and don't forget this is like a home game for them.
The Tulane Green Wave were being hailed as one of the most improved teams in the Country before the season started but I find that hard to believe considering that they have a brand new head coach and up until their I-A game last weekend, they had not looked good in their first two games and are 0-2 ATS on the season. Tulane is going to be jacked up for this game, no doubt about that, seeing how this is their first ever Nationally Televised football game on ESPN and it comes against cross state rivals LSU. The Green Wave were embarassed 38-17 in their opening game against Mississippi State this season and they followed that up with a 34-10 loss to Houston as +15 point underdogs. They even had problems getting by SE Louisiana last week beating them only 35-27 in yet another home game. Tulane has now lost 15 straight games against LSU and they have lost those games by an average marging of only 18 points which could work in their favor. However, I don't know that their seasons will get any better against one of the top teams in the Country. To keep up with LSU you have to score points and Tulane is returning only 5 starters so that's going to be a problem. Tulane comes into this game averaging 20.7 points per game which is not all that bad but they average only 322.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. LSU's defense is not something to mess with as they have allowed only 5.8 points per game this season and only 161.5 total yards of offense per game on 2.5 yards per play. On the ground, Tulane won't have much time to run but they do average 143.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Hahah well LSU has allowed only 26.8 rushing yards per game this season on 0.9 yards per carry so Tulane might as well not even try in this one. In the air, QB Scott Elliott has been terrible completing only 45.2% of his passes this season for 5.4 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. Screwed? Yeah I would say so seeing how LSU's defense has allowed opponents to complete only 42.0% of their passes this season for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. The Tigers also have 9 interceptions on the season and 16 sacks which can't bode well for Elliott and company. The junior QB has thrown four interceptions and this hungry LSU defense is not about to let this kid run the show at their expense. I don't think this is going to be close and I don't think Tulane can score more than their usual 14 points per game. The points will either come very late or very early but by that time, LSU will be gone with the wind.
This is like a home game for LSU. Not many people come to the Dome and claim to be cheering for Tulane over Louisiana State. The Tigers know that this is a great game to showcase some of their skills, pad some stats and let their fans enjoy another blowout win (seeing how they have beat three of their four opponents by 40+ points). The Tigers have 40 000+ tickets reserved for their fans at this game so make no mistake about it, it's gonna be loud and proud for the Tigers. If you still have concerns about LSU looking forward to next week, and we all know they are, they are 4-1 in their last five games before playing Florida beating Mississippi State by 31 last year, Vanderbilt by 28 in 2005 and Mississippi State by 35 in 2003. All the Tigers have to do in this game is show up, play some defense, show off on offense and the lights won't stay on for long. Tulane is just too inexperienced on both offense and defense to compete in this game as they are still learning how to run things under Bob Toledo and that is going to take a lot more time than just this week. LSU is one of the best teams in the Country and they are going to show why in this game.
Trend of the Game: LSU is 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite.
LSU 58, Tulane 14
Maryland Terrapins +18.5 (10 Units)
The Maryland Terrapins have yet to show what they are really all about this season as they come into this game with a 2-2 record having beat only Villanova (I-A) and Florida International and having lost to both West Virginia and Wake Forest. So things are not going well in ATS land as they are 0-3 against the spread but every team starts turning things around at some point in the season and I think this is where the Terps get things done. If you look back on seasons past you will notice that Maryland has been pretty damn good when playing back-to-back road games (2nd game is always better) as they have they beat Duke by 34 in 2004, beat North Carolina by 3 as underdogs in 2005 and beat Virginia by 2 last year all in the second of back-to-back road games. It has been a really long time since these two teams have met and I don't think Maryland is going to come in here to get embarassed. The losses to Wake Forest and West Virginia were competitive ones but the youth on this team started to show and in both games the Terps failed to come from behind after valiant efforts. This is the same Maryland team that came into the season with an okay 13-8 ATS record the last seven years as a road underdog. The Terrapins come into this game averaging only 23.8 points per game this season on only 320.5 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play. Rutgers is an even tougher test for this team as the Scarlet Knights allow only 9.0 points per game this season on 215.3 total yards of offense and 3.3 yards per play. Thats good stuff but Maryland can keep things close. The Terps average 161.3 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season and since Rutgers has allowed 111.3 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry this season, I don't think the Terps are going to run much. That leaves things in the hands of QB Jordan Steffy who has completed 69.6% of his passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt but has made bad decisions and has thrown only 1 touchdown pass to 4 interceptions. However the Terps have to use more of him. Rutgers has allowed their opponents to complete only 50.7% of their passes this season for 4.3 yards per pass attempt so it might be tough for Steffy but I think this offense is going to get creative here. Rutgers is quick out of the blocks and they do have 4 interceptions on the season but moving the ball fast is going to be key for Steffy. As well as Rutgers has played this season on defense, they have forced only 3 fumbles and have not recovered a single one. That could really come back to haunt them in this game as Maryland shows a whole new gameplan and exposes some Rutgers weaknesses.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still aiming for the BCS Championship and they need to keep winning to make that happen. They are 3-0 on the year and coming off a bye week but they do have some big games coming up and the biggest mistake this team could make would be to think that the Maryland Terrapins are going to be an easy team to beat. The Scarlet Knights are a perfect 2-0 ATS in their two lined games this season and they are now 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite dating back to the last two seasons. However, I really have to point out that Rutgers is 19-53-1 lifetime versus teams from the ACC Conference. Rutgers has games versus Cincinnati and South Florida (the new darkhorse National Title contenders) in coming weeks so this could be a spot where they are looking over Maryland's shoulder and thinking about their gameplan for the new charging bulldozers coming out of the Big East. Maryland is not as bad as some of their numbers indicate and I don't see why the line should be this high. Cincinnati beat Rutgers last year as one of their only two losses so revenge and that game are on a lot of guys minds. The Scarlet Knights come into this game averaging 46.0 points per game this season on 525.3 total yards of offense and 8.6 yards per play but that was against Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State who are some of the worst defenses around. Maryland is pretty damn good and they have held their opponents to 21.5 points per game and 298.8 total yards per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Rutgers and RB Ray Rice are going to pound away like there is no tomorrow as they average 228.3 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry on the year. Maryland's weakness has surprisingly been the run defense as they have allowed 156.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry but I think changes are coming. In the air, QB Mike Teel has completed 66.7% of his passes this season for 15.1 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 1 interception. But keep in mind who they have played against. Maryland has allowed opponents to complete 55.6% of their passes this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt which is good and they have 7 interceptions to go along with 7 sacks. Rutgers has not allowed a sack all season but that can't last. The Terps have also forced 8 fumbles this season and turnovers are going to be the key to this game. Maryland's defense is very capable of winning a game themselves and I think Rutgers is going to make a few too many mistakes in this game.
What the hell kind of line is this anyways? I know Maryland has loooked like complete dog shit in most of thier games this season but they are definitely going to end up in a bowl game before this is all said and done and I like the way they match up with the Scarlet Knights. The Terps have not had much success doing anything on offense this season but Jordan Steffy has plenty of experience and this is the week the mistakes top for him. Rutgers has been known to have brain cramp games in the past and this could very well be another one of those games. This kinda reminds me of the game last year when Maryland went to Georgia Tech as a +14 road underdog and they almost won that game, eventually losing by three points. That or the game when they went to Florida State as +17 point road underdogs and lost the game 35-27. Or the next game where they went to North Carolina as +3 road underdogs and won. So this is a great spot for the Terrapins who can really show that they still have a bit of juice left in the Fridge. Maryland is going to shock the world and sent Rutgers packing with a loss in this game.
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 27-14 ATS since 1993 when coming off two straight up losses.
Maryland 31, Rutgers 24
Texas Longhorns -15 (5 Units)
The Kansas State Wildcats pretty much kickoff their season this week as they take on the Texas Longhorns and I say that because they are coming off the bye week and have had two weeks to recover from a 2-1 start to the season. I was on Texas last year when the Wildcats stunned them 45-42 at home as +16 point underdogs and although the odds look pretty damn tempting this time around as well, I just don't see how Kansas State can peform the same way on the road as they did that day last year in Bill Snyder Stadium. If you look back at their games last season where the Wildcats were underdogs on the road, they got smoked by Missouri as +14 underdogs, beat Colorado as +3 point underdogs and lost by 19 against Kansas as a +2 point underdog. I just don't trust this team to perform well as a road underdog and I actually see Texas coming in today and blowing them out of the water. Kansas State is only 2-7 straight up in their last nine Big 12 road openers so hope of them pulling off the upset again should just be shot down right now. Kansas State lost to a bad Auburn team by 10 points on the road to open the year and that just goes to show what they have been up to away from home. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 36.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 429.0 total yards of offense and 5.9 yards per play. Texas always has a bunch of talent on defense and they have allowed only 18.0 points per game this season and have done so by allowing 310.5 total yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Wildcats have not had problems running the ball as they average 133.7 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. It's gonna be tough for RB James Johnson to do his thing here as Texas has allowed only 87.3 rushing yards per game this season on 2.5 yards per carry and that will force the Wildcats to throw the ball. In the air, QB Josh Freeman has completed 62.9% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions (he had 15 interceptions last season). That could be trouble against a Texas defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 57.2% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Longhorns have a very aggrressive pass rush that has recorded 11 sacks this season and 5 interceptions. Freeman is going to have a pretty damn flawless game to pull this off and I don't think that can happen. Kansas State is lucky to have a 2-1 record this year seeing how they have fumbled the ball 7 times already and Texas will take advantage of that.
The Texas Longhorns are one of those teams that almost always screws me over whether I bet on them or whether I bet against them. Some teams are just like that and they are one of them but what can I do? I was on Texas a few weeks back when they went to UCF and almost lost against a pretty damn good team as -17 points favorites. The Longhorns are now 2-2 ATS this season and are coming off a very big confidence building win against Rice last week by a score of 58-14. Texas is 26-17 ATS over the last seven season as home favorites so this is a place where they have covered a lot of games and Mack Brown has shown several times that he can score well into the 40's and 50's. Since the 2003 season, the Texas Longhorns have scored at least 44 points in each game that was played the week before their big battle with Oklahoma. With the Sooners game on deck next week, Texas is thinking about the Wildcats game only right now because I think they know that beating the Sooners is going to be next to impossible. This is revenge and a lot of guys have a lot of beef with that loss against the Widlcats. The Longhorns come into this game averaging 37.0 points per game on the season on 450.8 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play which is about the same as the Wildcats average. However, Kansas State has allowed 15.7 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 258.3 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play. But wait...check their opponents. Nothing impressive. Texas is going to bring a lot of ground and pound as they average 187.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Kansas State has been very good against the run allowing 68.0 rushing yards per game on 1.9 yards per carry but RB Jamal Charles is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and he will no doubt bust out some big numbers. Once this goes to the air, QB Colt McCoy has completed 67.3% of his passes this season for 1054 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Well Kansas State has only 2 interceptions on the year so that takes this away and despite a heavy dose of pass rush from the Wildcats (13 sacks on the year), the Horns offensive line should hold up as they have allowed only 4 sacks in 4 games. McCoy should have a huge game in this one as the Wildcats have allowed opponents to complete 60.6% of their passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt which is a bit much against the Longhorns. I just can't be money on defenses that are not aggressive like Kansas State with only 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. The Longhorns are going to have plenty of chances to put this game away early and I think they are going to blow the Wildcats out.
Once again the line is a bit baffling. I mean they were -16 last year on the road against this same Kansas State team and now that the game moves back to Austin and now that the game is deemeed a revenge game, the line somehow dips down to -15 and I am biting. Could it be because the Longhorns have not really impressed anyone this season or maybe because they can no longer be trusted by most bettors. I don't think so. The Longhorns need to put a bit of scare into Oklahoma because the way things are going now, I am going to make Oklahoma one of my bigger plays this year next week. The Sooners have been flexing their muscles all over the place this season while Texas has looked good one week and come out with a dinky performance the next week. So this is a great chance for the Longhorns to show the Sooners that they mean big time business. I like Mack Brown to run up the score late and I like this Texas passing attack to finally take flight and avoid making mistakes like they have this season. If Texas wants any chance of winning next week, this is a must blowout.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games when favored by 10.5 points or more.
Texas 31, Kansas State 13
Wisconsin Badgers -7.5 (5 Units)
The Michigan State Spartans are a little bit scary to go against. I say that because Mark Dantonio is a damn good coach who knows how to turn things around big time for certain programs. Look at the job he did in Cincinnati and look at the job he has been doing here. After going 4-8 last season, the Spartans are off to a 4-0 start so they have pretty much matched the amout of wins they had last year. Job accomplished now for Michigan State right? Wrong...coach Dantonio is already talking about winning the Big 10 but this is the one game I think he is going to have problems winning. The Spartans are coming off four games where they were favored in each game yet they are now +7.5 and 2-2 ATS on the year. A lot of people are going to bet on Michigan State in this one hoping to have another repeat performance of the big 2004 upset where the Spartans came in this place and won 49-14 against the #4 ranked Badgers. Well thats not happening this time around. Michigan State has played against four teams who are in full rebuilding mode right now and Wisconsin is in another class compared to those teams. The Spartans come into this game averaging 32.8 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging 416.5 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. However, Wisconsin has allowed only 19.5 points per game this season on 309.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Michigan State has been running the ball well all season as they average 200.8 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry but will run into some problems in this game as Wisconsin is allowing only 3.2 yards per carry on 96.8 rushing yards per game. That will force QB Brian Hoyer to throw a lot more than he has this season. Hoyer has not yet been exposed for the inexperienced player that he is as he has completed only 57.1% of his passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Wisconsin's defense is pretty damn good at home as they have allowed opponents to complete only 58.8% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The Wisconsin defense has been a bit too quiet for my liking this year so I think that they are going to force some turnovers in this one (no recoverd fumbles yet) and I think Michigan State is going to have problems protecting Hoyer long enough to keep him away from making mistakes.
The Wisconsin Badgers can probably still be considered National Title contenders after starting the season 4-0 and winning some of their games in convincing fashion...well not really seeing how they are 1-2 ATS on the year but if there ever was a time to make a statement, it would be right now. The Badgers are going to have to hope other teams lose if they want any chance at that BCS title game but for now they can only do their part and thier part would be to win this game big and shoot down all talk of Michigan State winning the Big 10. The Badgers are coming off a very mediocre game against Iowa and I don't think coach Bielema was too happy this week. However, Iowa has always played well in this place and you can't put too much stock into the closeness of that game. The Badgers are now 12-1 straight up in their last 13 Big 10 home openers so unless you're willing to go against that and willing to take Michigan State on the moneyline, go right ahead. The Badgers know how to come out for their fans in confernece home openers and this should be no different. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 31.0 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 400.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. As well as Michigan State has played, their level of opposition has not been that good and they have allowed 15.5 points per game this season on 265.8 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB PJ Hill and the Badgers have a rushing attack like Michigan State has not seen this season. They are averaging 202.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. I know Michigan State has allowed only 95.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.9 yards per carry but can you name me on running back they have faced this season? Exactly...a bunch of nobodies. In the air, QB Tyler Donovan has completed 60.2% of his passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 1 interception. I have to admit he has been impressive. Michigan State's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 56.2% of their passes this season for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The Spartans defense is not as good as they have played this season which is why I am having a hard time seeing how they are going to stop the Badgers in this one. Wisconsin is now 5-2 ATS as a home favorite under heach coach Bret Bielema and I think the get rid of all doubts and find a way to win this game by a comfortable margin.
Michigan State is good but they are not that good that they can come in here and keep this game close. Wisconsin has been a very good home team under Bret Bielema and after seeing them pull out a very tough win over Iowa last weekend, I think the Badgers are read to flex some muscle within the BIG 10 conference. Looking back at some of the games these two teams have played over the years, apart from their 2004 shocking home loss to the Spartans, Wisconsin has won home games by 35, 30, 31 and 21 points over this Michigan State team and that goes back all the way to 1993. So once again, unless you think Michigan State can actually walk in here with their pedestrian level of opposition, I invite you to take them on the moneyline. Biliema is going to have his guys ready for this game and there is no way Michigan State is going to do to Wisconsin what they have done to opponents this season. Mark Dantonio is a good coach but Camp Randall is not the place he wants to be on Saturday. Wisconsin is notorious in home BIG 10 openers having won 10 of the last 11 and I see the same today. Donovan and his guys have a huge game and win by 10+. Believe it or not, this is all about the Wisconsin defense in this game. Shutout time.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Wisconsin 23, Michigan State 0
California Golden Bears +6.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The California Golden Bears are going to leave it all on the field in this one. This is my largest wager of the season and although some of you may have problems with betting big time on games, believe me when I say that coach Tedford and his guys are going to be ready for this one. The Golden Bears are coming off a 45-27 ass whipping of the Arizona Wildcats at home and for the second time this season they head on the road to play a football game. Forget the games against Colorado State, Louisiana Tech and Arizona. Lets focus more on the game where the National spotlight was shed on them and that was the Tennessee game...a game they easily won 45-31 to open their season. Well that was then and this is now. With a bye week coming up next week, this is by far the biggest game of the Golden Bears season. I know it's tough for a team like California to come to Eugene and to win a game like this seeing how the Ducks are seeking revenge but the line is too high to pass up what should be a classic PAC 10 affaire. You can question this team all you want but one thing is for sure, Jeff Tedford is not about to lose another ATS cover on the road as an underdog (0-3 the last two seasons). The Golden Bears come into this game averaging a whopping 41.5 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 436.0 total yards per game on 6.6 yards per play this season. Oregon's defense has been impressive to start the year but they still allow 21.5 points per game and have also allowed 409.8 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play which is a lot for a team favored by this much in a game like this. On the ground, California has been tearing things up with their 223.0 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The reason I like that is because we saw what some RB's can do to this Ducks defense and I really like that Oregon has struggled against the run this season allowing 164.8 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. RB Justin Forsett could be in for one hell of a game. In the air, QB Nate Longshore has completed 63.3% of his passes this season for 852 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns. Oregon is a lot better against the pass than they are against the run but California provides a dual threat offense that could give the Ducks some headaches depiste the fact that they allow opposing QB's to complete 54.4% of thier passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line for Cal has done a great job all season long allowing only 3 sacks while Longhsore has thrown only 2 interceptions. That's good news because the Ducks pass rush is up to par and they have picked off quite a few passes already this year. I think California unloads some weapons in this game and the Ducks are in for all they can handle against this Jeff Tedord team that returns 13 starters from the blowout win team of last year.
The Oregon Ducks have done all they can to show that they belong amongst the leaders of the PAC 10 but that wont' mean much if they can't win this game. The Ducks were pretty much humiliated by California on the road last season as they lost 45-24 in Berkeley...a loss several of these players have prorbably not forgotten. Don't forget the fact too that Oregon is 4-0 ATS this season having covered each and every game they have played and on top of that they have scored 39 points or more in each and everyone of their games while beating Michigan, Houston, Fresno State and Stanford. Nothing special but still something to build on. So another way to look at this game would be to say that the winner gets a crack at the PAC 10 lead with USC and the loser gets to pack his bags until next year and hope they can do better in 2008. I know the home team has been winning the games in this series the last four times out there but keep in mind that the last two times California came to Eugene, they lost by 7 in overtime and lost 4 points in 2003. So they know how to play here and they sure know what it takes to beat the Ducks. Oregon comes into this game averaging a crazy 48.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 536.8 total yards of offense per game on 7.3 yards per play. California's defense lacks experience but they have done a decent job allowing 24.5 points per game on 365.8 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. If anything...its much better than what Oregon has done defensively. On the ground, the Ducks are going to run, run and run some more with QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart as they average 299.8 rushing yards per game this season on a whopping 6.2 yards per carry. Well Calirfornia's defensive line has been outstanding as they have held opponents to 107.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.4 yards per carry. I think that's going to be enough to slow down the Ducks rushing attack and force Dixon to throw more than he probably wants to. Dixon has completed 68.8% of his passes this season for 9.7 yards per pass attempt and a whopping 11 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. I don't doubt for a minute that Oregon can score some points and move the ball through the air and I say that because California's secondary has allowed opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. However, they have a very good pass rush that has 14 sacks on the year and the biggest problems for Oregon has been protecting Dixon enough as they have allowed 8 sacks on the year. Dixon has yet to make a mistake this season but the Golden Beats have 7 interceptions on the season and they have forced 7 fumbles. This game is going to be about scoring but I think California's defense is going to make the bigger plays in this game.
Oregon has pretty much dominated this damn series since is started and the Ducks have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Jeff Tedford is not an idiot and if anyone knows Mike Bellotti better than most others, it's coach Tedford because he was his offensive cooordinator back in the late 1990's. You may think this is just another PAC 10 game of the week to watch on TV but its a lot more than that. The Golden Bears are defending BIG 10 champions while the Ducks are one of the hottest teams in the Country right now and one of the most up-and-coming programs this season. However, I don't see this game being a runaway one way or another, if anything it's going to be a very open and close game where both teams match each other score for score. California has not yet proven themselves on the road but this is a great chance to do it. I am making this my largest wager of the year because I think Nate Longshore and Justin Forsett are both very capable of outshining Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart. They did it last year and even if they don't win this game, I don't see this being won by more than 3 points. The Golden Bears are a better team than they get credit for and its time to show why. GO GOLDEN BEARS!
Trend of the Game: California is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
California 38, Oregon 28
<ST1
Florida State Seminoles -2 (5 Units)The Alabama Crimson Tide thought they had it all when the signed Nick Saban to coach this football team and they thought they had it all when he led them to a 3-0 record to open the season. Well that all came crashing to a halt last week when one wheel fell off the Bama wagon as the Tide lost 26-23 to Georgia. After beating down on opponents like Western Carolina, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, the Crimson Tide were engaged in a full out war last week and I don't know that they can recover in time to enter the tomahawk chop land. Alabama is now 1-2 ATS this season and 3-1 straight up but if they lose another game there could be problems in Saban land. The side plot in this one is that Florida State's offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher used to work for Nick Saban and it's going to be interesting to see how much Saban uses that to his advantage. With so many guys back on offense, Saban doesn't have a problem scoring points this season but he does have a problem keeping them scored against. This is a game Alabama cannot really afford to lose seeing how they have Tennessee and LSU on deck in the next few weeks but put it this way too...Alabama has Houston and Ole Miss coming up the next two games and that could have them a bit too relaxed. The Crimson Tide come into this game averaging 35.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 436.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Now that's an offense. However Florida State's defense has allowed only 18.0 points per game this season and they have done it by allowing 305.3 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Alabama has pounded the ball away all season to the tune of 205.3 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. Florida State's run defense is pretty damn good as they have allowed only 74.7 rushing yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry. That is going to put a lot more pressure on QB John Parker Wilson who has only been mediocre this season completing 54.1% of his passes on the year for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Florida State pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 57.0% of their passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season. The pass rush is not what it used to be for the Seminoles but their defense does make big plays when they have to and they do come up big in games like this. I know Alabama's season is pretty much on the line in this game but they are not quite ready to win a big game like this one and their loss last week was a bad one that might take a few more games to recover from. I think Alabama is going to finish with a good record but I think the loss last week at home deflated them enough that they won't have the goods in this game. I am calling for another poor offensive performance from Saban's guys, somethign that will be corrected and adjusted next week.
The Florida State Seminoles have showns us faces this season and although their 16-6 road win over Colorado last week wasn't that impressive for many, it went a long way for me showing that they can cover spreads like the -4.5 as a road favorite and telling me that this team is probably going to start playing like they should have been playing at the start of the season. There is no doubt on anyone's minds that Florida State has the talent to be a National Title Contender. Although all that hope is now gone with their loss to Clemson in the opening game, the talent has not gone anywhere and the Seminoles are still one of the most skilled teams in the Country. Well now is the time to show what you can do. This game is being played in Jacksonville in the Alltel stadium which means that a lot of fans are going to get to see the Noles outside of Tallahassee. Although this is like a home game for Florida State, it is still considered a NEUTRAL field because of the location and the Seminoles are 3-0 straight up on Neutral fields over the last seven seasons. With the real conference play starting next week, I think Jimbo Fisher and company are going to lay it all on the line for this game. The Seminoles come into this game averaging only 22.7 points per game on the season and they have done that on 332.3 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Alabama's defense has not impressed me at all this season as they have allowed 20.0 points per game and have allowed 326.5 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. Okay it's not as bad as I thought but they have allowed too many points per game for my liking. On the ground, Florida State is averaging 132.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.6 yards per carry this season but they should have a shot seeing how the run defense on Alabama is not that good and opposing teams have unloaded 146.8 rushing yards on them per game on 3.7 yards per carry. Once this thing moves to the air, QB Drew Weatheford better be ready. He has completed only 54.0% of his passes this season for 600 yards, 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns with 1 interception. Alabama's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 48.8% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt so things could get tough on Weatherford. The key in this game is to get run game going early and make sure you open things up in the passing attack. The only way Drew Weatheford is going to be stymied is if the Alabama can get a good pass rush going. Well the Tide has only 4 sacks on the season and Weatheford will be happy to hear that seeing how he has been sacked 8 times in three games. The Seminoles are not the most effective offensive team but they do feast of their defensive abilities and like I said before, I think their big win over Colorado two weeks ago went a long way to showing that this team is growing and that they are ready to take the next step here.
CHOP! CHOP! CHOP! I love that song...and I love when they all chop. Although this game is being played in Jacksonville and not in Tallahassee, the choppers are going to come out in full blitz for this one to welcome Nick Saban back to the state of Florida. We have been hearing all week about the many many coaching subplots in this game but I don't think it's going to affect the way these guys are going to play. The big win over Colorado last week probably gave this Seminoles some new life and probably gave them hope that the ACC Conference Championship game is still within reach for these guys. The big x-factor for me in this game is the fact that Florida State has had two weeks to prepare for this game while sitting at home and relaxing while Alabama is coming off a devastating overtime home loss to Georgia last week and they have only had the one week to prepare for this game. Florida State is no doubt going to come out firing on all cylinder with Jimbo Fisher calling the shots here and after they build a lead, I think their defense can hold down the fort long enough to win this game by more than 2 points. This is the day Florida State re-asserts themselves into the race for the ACC Championship game.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Florida State 24, Alabama 3
Auburn Tigers +17.5 (10 Units)
The Auburn Tigers have already been counted out by just about everyone in this Country and had it not been for the end result of some of their games this season, I don't think there is a chance in hell we would be seeing a line like this. SEC was considered one of the prime contenders to win the SEC WEST before the season started but their losses to South Florida and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks ended all hope of that happening pending some kind of miracle. But wait a minute, that loss to South Florida doesn't look all that bad anymore does it? South Florida is actually being considered a darkhorse National Title contender right now so there is no shame in losing to them. Auburn was the one and only team to beat Florida in 2006 even though they won the national championship and that has to still be on the minds of the returning 12 starters who now know for a fact that they match up well with the Gators and who know for a fact that Tommy Tuberville can be back in SEC West contention if he pulls off a win here and a few others down the line. This won't be easy but it can most definitely be done. The Tigers come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 332.5 total yards of offense per game and 4.5 yards per play. Florida's defense is young but has done a decent job holding opponents to 19.5 points per game on 307.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. On the ground, Auburn has averaged only 158.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry and things probably won't improve in this one against a Florida defense that has been stingy against the run allowing only 54.5 rushing yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry. That means that QB Brandon Cox is going to have to have a great game. He has completed only 53.3% of his passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. However, Florida's pass defense has yet to be exposed as a bit soft as they have allowed opponents to complete 60.3% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. The Gators do have 4 interceptions on the season but their pass rush has not been effective enough to really bother Cox like other teams have this season and that could be the difference in this game. I like the experience that Auburn has though in that they beat Florida at home last year and Brandon Cox was the one who led them there. I think he is going to have his best game of the season and Auburn is going to raise some serious eyebrows tonight.
The Florida Gators don't really need to be told that the SEC East is up for grabs this season and that they are the ones who should easily bring home the bacon but you have to wonder when the hell is this team going to fall a step back from their championship form and look like the team that is returning only 8 starters combined on both offense and defense? Well I think we started to see things fizzle away a bit last week in their 30-24 win over Ole Miss as -23.5 point favorites. I know it's tough to go against a team that is 2-0 ATS at home this season as a favorite and that plays in one of the toughest home stadiums in all of college football but that doesn't change the fact that the last three games between these two schools have been decided by 10 points or less and there is a good chance that Auburn pushes the Gators right to the brink in this one too. Florida used to dominate this series with Auburn but they are 0-3 ATS the last three seasons against them and with the LSU road game coming up next week, im pretty sure the Gators are going to fall asleep at times in this game and let the Tigers hang around. Florida comes into this game averaging 49.3 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 517.8 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.7 yards per play. Auburn has been pretty good defensively allowing only 19.5 points per game (same as Florida) on 306.8 total yards of offense and only 4.2 yards per play (both better than Florida) so they really do have a shot in this game. On the ground, we all know Tim Tebow can run the damn ball and we know that Florida has averaged 237.5 rushing yards per game this season on 5.6 yards per carry. Well Auburn's defense has been run on about 37+ times per game and allowed only 3.2 yards per carry and 119.0 rushing yards per game which should really slow the Gators down. In the air, Tebow has completed 68.4% of his passes on the year for 1096 passing yards, 11.5 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 1 interception. WOW! Auburn's defense has allowed opponents to complete 56.8% of their passes this season but have allowed only 5.1 yards per pass attempt so once again Florida won't be getting huge yardage gains in this one, everything will have to be grinded out which usually indicates a close game. The Tigers have 5 interceptions on the season and have forced 6 fumbles so there is hope that they force turnovers against the Gators and make things a lot easier for their offense to start with good field position. Florida is a very good team but they might be caught snoozing in this one against a team that has almost always showed up to play against them in recent years.
UPSET BABY! I smell and I want a piece of it. Florida has looked untouchable since winning their BCS title earlier this year but now they have LSU on the board next weekend in Baton Rouge and I can guarantee you that a bunch of these guys are already thinking about that game next week. I mean pffffff who the hell is Auburn anyways right? You know they're only the team that has beat Florida in two of their last three meetings and the team that is 7-2 ATS as road underdogs since the 2002 season. The SEC is like that actually...no matter what you have done all season and no matter who you have beat or played against, these games can come down to the wire and upsets can happen all the time. Auburn is still one of the most talented teams in the SEC this season and I really would not count them out of this game too early. Florida is going to keep things simple wanting to come away with a win only and no injuries and no revealed gameplan for the LSU game so expect a lot of running and plays calls designed to keep the playclock moving and keep the Tigers off the field as much as possible. Auburn should put up a good fight and I think they can pull off the upset with an overtime FG.
Trend of the Game: Florida is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when favored by more than 10.5 points.
Auburn 34, Florida 31
Washington Huskies +20 (10 Units)
Wow...never thought I would be going against the USC Trojans at any point this week but I really have a sinking feeling that my boys are going down in this game. In what should be another one of the great matchups of the week this week, USC takes their act to Seattle to take on the Huskies, their fans and coach Willingham who has done a fine job this season. The Trojans come into this game with a 2-1 ATS record and are coming off a big 47-14 home win over Washington State last weekend but don't put too much stock into that win. USC won their two road games by 28 points and 18 points this season so I don't know why so many people think hitting and winning by 20 points is going to be that easy. USC was lucky to escape their home game against the Huskies last season as Washington went down to the USC 15 yard line down by six points and with :02 left in the game but they never got another play off and the clock just expired. USC is only 17-15 ATS over the last seven seasons as a road favorite so that doesn't tell us much. They don't have many look ahead games on their schedule right now but based on the way Washington has played this season, it won't be easy to beat them by that many points. The Trojans come into this game averaging 44.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 462.0 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.4 yards per play. Washington's defense has shown signs of brilliance at times this year but they still allow 24.8 points per game on 403.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, USC has a scary number of guys who can really do some damage as they have averaged 244.7 rushing yards per game this season on a crazy 6.3 yards per pass attempt. However, Washington run defense has held their ground and despite allowing 176.8 total rushing yards per game on the year, they have managed to hold opponents to an alright 4.5 yards per carry which should slow the Trojans down just a bit. In the air, QB John David Booty has completed 70.1% of his passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions which is good but nothing really special. Washington's pass defense is a bend but dont break kind of defense as they have alllowed opponents to complete 59.7% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt but have made some big stops along the way. The Huskies defensive line is big and strong and have 9 sacks on the year. One of the biggest problems I have with betting on the Trojans is the fact that they have fumbled the ball 7 times in three games and against a team like Washington and in this kind of atmosphere, trust me you don't want to be losing the ball at bad times. USC is going to struggle and the more they struggle, the more the chances that Washington can pull off the straight up win.
The Washington Huskies had a dream to start to this season as they kicked things off 2-0 with wins in Syracus and at home against Boise State but the wheels started falling off the wagon a bit in their home loss to Ohio State which was then followed by a brutal road loss to the punchless UCLA Bruins. So who the hell are the Huskies and which one of those two teams is going to show up in this one? Willingham was furious with their effort last week and believe me when I say that he probably ran these guys into the ground in practice this week. We are talking about a Washington team that play in a very tough stadium for opponents. I know the Huskies have dropped five straight against USC but the fact that they came within a few seconds of beating them in their own home last year really has me believing that they can use a similar type of gameplan in this game and possibly pull off the big upset. The wins over Syracus and Boise State were definitely not flukes but the Huskies have been flustered ever since one or two plays changed their game against Ohio State for the bad and now its time to forget about that stuff and start what Willingham called their 'new season'. The Huskies come into this game averaging 27.8 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 368.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play this season. USC's defense is pretty damn good this season but they have still allowed 18.3 points per game this season on 306.7 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play which should allow the Huskies to move the ball at times. On the ground, Washington has done a great job running the ball with QB sensation Locker and RB Louis Rankin as they average 175.3 rushing yards per game this season and have done that on 4.8 yards per carry. USC has a very good defensive line and they have allowed only 2.2 yards per carry on the year for 64.3 rushing yards per game. That will force Locker to really get going on his feet and he is going to have to be efficient passing the ball too. Locker has completed only 53.1% of his passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns passes and 6 interceptions. Well the Trojans pass defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 55.3% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt so the Huskies are going to have to be creative and create some space in this one. The offensive line has done a great job holding opponents to only 4 sacks in four games this season so Locker doesn't have an excuse for not moving the ball in time. Washington is a lot more disciplined this season than the Trojans have been this season and when you're playing at home against one of the best teams in the Country, that usually goes a long way. Washington is going to keep this game close and much like last year, either give the Trojans a title hope ending loss or they might come really close to doing it.
What I don't get here is why so many people have given up on Washington so fast? I mean the Huskies and Jake Locker were being hailed as one of the best PAC 10 teams after beating both Boise State and Syracuse earlier this season but the oddsmakers and bettors have jumped ship on this team and now they are 20 point underdogs at home. Well that's a big mistake if you ask me because they were leading in the second half of the Ohio State game before letting things fall apart and making the score look like a bigger blowout than it really was. Then they went on the road and got blown out by UCLA but people seem to forget that Washington has won something like only 13 road games in 30+ tries over the course of the last seven seasons so the loss came as no shock to anyone. Jake Locker is a special kid who can make things happen on his feet and much like they do almost every season, USC is probably going to fall asleep at some point in this ball game leaving the door wide open for the Huskies to make an approach and make this interesting. I am calling for Jake Locker to once again grab the attention of the Nation and Locker alone can make this a two horse race for the BCS Championship game.
Trend of the Game: USC is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when favored by 10.5 points or more.
Washington 35, Southern California 32
Ohio State Buckeyes -24 (5 Units)
The Ohio State Buckeyes are not my favorite team to bet on when it comes to large spreads like this one played in front of a national tv audience late on a Saturday night but I just couldn't resist the thoughts of them coming to the Gopher Dome and threatening to score 80+ points. Ohio State started off a bit slow this season beating a I-A team by only 32 points and then following that up with a 20-2 win over Akron as -28 point favorites but they have since picked up the pace big time and are now 2-0 ATS in their last two games beating Washington and Northwestern by a combined total of 70 points. What that tells me is that Jim Tressel has these guys by the bullhorns and he finally has them playing the way he has wanted them to play all season. Ohio State has not lost in the MetroDome since 1981 meaning they have now won 10 straight games in this stadium. Ohio State is now 7-2 ATS the last two seasons when favored in a road game and I don't see why they would stop now. Not many people are talking about these guys in National Title talks but if they can run the table this year, and I think they can, they should most definitely be considered as one of the top teams in this Country. The Buckeye come into this game averaging 37.3 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 418.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. Minnesota's defense has been atrocious and they have allowed 38.5 points per game this season and have done that by allowing 543.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play. OUCH! On the ground, the Buckeyes have a very efficient running attack that should do even better on this surface as they average 203.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.8 yards per carry. Minnesota has allowed 135.5 rushing yards per game this season for 4.2 yards per carry and I think the Buckeyes running game is going to soften up the Gophers enough to let them bomb away in the air. QB Todd Boeckman has completed 65.9% of his passes this season for 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Minnesota's pass defense is terrible as opponents have completed 62.8% of their passes against them this season for a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt so don't think for one second that coach Tressel is not going to showcase some of his guys and run up the score in this one. The Gophers don't make plays on defense as they have forced only 1 fumble all season and have only 5 interceptions to show for it. This game is going to get ugly in a hurry and the Buckeyes are going to score their highest point total in a lot of years.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are bad and they aren't just bad, they are THAT BAD! I mean we are talking about a team that can score some points and that has some serious weapons on offense but the same team that cannot stop any opponents from scoring and that's scary thought for them coming into this game. Minnesota is a pathetic 0-4 ATS on the season having lost barely escaped games against Miami Ohio and Bowling Green earlier this season as favorites and having lost their latest game against Purdue by 14 points. It's hard to bet against a team like the Gophers that can put some serious points up on the board but like I said before, we are now into BIG 10 Conference play where blowouts are likely going to happen as coaches want to make statements game in and game out. Minnesota has won only 4 of their 23 all time home games against the Buckeyes and the Gophers are now only 4-8 ATS as home underdogs over the course of the last seven seasons. I don't know that they are going to come into this game with the hopes of winning but I do know that most of the guys on this team are looking ahead to two much easier road games coming up in following weeks. The Gophers come into this game averaging 35.5 points per game which makes it tough to go against them as they also average 487.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play. However, Ohio State has allowed only 7.3 points per game this season, by far the best defense the Gophers have seen, and they have also allowed only 185.3 total yards of offense against them for only 3.1 yards per play. The Minnesota offense relies almost 100% on the effectiveness of their running attack as they average 229.8 rushing yards per game this season on 5.5 yards per carry. As good as they have been, Ohio State is not the kind of team you want to run on as they have allowed only 2.2 yards per carry this season and only 65.0 rushing yards per game. That means that everything is on QB Adam Weber to make some plays in the air. He has completed 58.6% of his passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. WOW! Ohio State's defense is pretty damn tough to pass against as they have allowed opponents to complete only 52.1% of their passes this season for only 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means that Weber and company are going to have a tough time keeping up with the Buckeyes scoring in this game. Seeing how Weber has thrown two interceptions per game this season and the Buckeyes have picked off 5 passes on the season, I think Ohio State is going to force enough turnovers to really pull away with this game in the second half. On top throwing the ball away twice per game, Minnesot has also lost 8 fumbles on the season which means another two per game and which means Ohio State is going to get the ball back on offense a lot more often than they ever expected. Minnesota is a disaster.
The Minnesota Gophers, and you cannot argue with me here, are by far the worst team in a very weak BIG 10 Conference this season and if that's not enough to convince you to fade them in this game then I suggest you move onto the next one. They are 0-4 ATS on the season, they are throwing 2.0 interceptions per game this season, they have lost 2.0 fumbles per game this season and they look like they have no idea what's going on out there under the guidance of new head coach Tim Brewster. Jim Tressel really doesn't give a rats ass what state this football program is in nowadays because he heads into this game having blown out several opponents on the road over the course of the last few years. Tressel knows that if Ohio State is going to go undefeated this season they are going to need some style points and some losses by other teams to have a shot at the BCS Championship game so winning these games by 40+ points is something that needs to be done. Last season the Buckeyes won by 17 in Texas, by 21 in Iowa, by 31 in Michigan State and by 44 in Northwestern do don't tell me they can't win this game by four touchdowns or more. No chance...Buckeyes roll.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
Ohio State 70, Minnesota 38
WEEKLY RECAP
Louisiana State -41.5
Maryland +18.5
Texas -15
Wisconsin -7.5
California +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Florida State -2
Auburn +17.5
Washington +20
Ohio State -24
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS WEEK!
<!-- / message -->
