MistaFlava
Cheerleader
This Week: 1-0 (+3.00 Units)
2006 CFB Record: 16-13 ATS (+3.80 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 13-12 ATS (+4.30)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 3-1 (-0.50 Units)
Last Week I went 7-3 and got back on track. This week I am 1-0. College football is the only sport where I am willing to bet on favorites and OVER bets because these kids play their asses off and laying off other teams is usually never an option. Anyways, my week 2 went very well as I got back on track and am now ready to kick some big time ass.
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Saturday, September 16
Ohio State Buckeyes -29.5 (2 Units)
Sandwich Game? Huh? The only sandwich part of this game is going to be the Chicken Teriyaki sandwich I am going to be eating while watching this game and making some money. I have seen countless articles from the media as well as professional handicappers talking about this being a big time sandwich game for the Buckeyes. Good teams are good and bad teams are bad. How about Texas last year? They came into Columbus, beat the Buckeyes and then covered as 40 points favs the following week with Missouri on deck. In some cases I do buy the sandwich theory but in most cases I don't. The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off one of the most pathetic ESPN games I have ever watched last week as they got blown away by Pitt 33-15. The Bearcats looked just horrendous on offense and they are now averaging 333.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play this season. However, the Buckeyes have faced some stiff competition and allowed only 334.5 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Bearcats don't really a groud game to speak of. They are averaging only 82.0 rushing yards per game on a pathetic 2.5 yards per carry and this is where they have been running into problems. The Buckeyes defense is top notch but their main concern is the run defense. They have allowed 130+ rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry but have faced some of the top backs in the Nation. Don't expext Cincinnati to have a ground game in this one as they will go down and have to throw the ball. In the air, QB Dustin Grutza will probably start with Nick Davila as his backup but both have looked atrocious against a defense like Pitt and both might look like even bigger disasters in this one. The Bearcats average 6.8 yards per pass attempt this season but have thrown two interceptions and have a questionable offensive line. The Buckeyes defense has enough talent on defense to pick off a few passes in this game and they have allowed only 5.6 yards per pass attempt so far this season. I expect a lot of pressure from the Buckeyes making life a lot harder for the Cincy QB's and creating a lot more turnovers than the Bearcats had hoped for. The QB situation and the offensive situation in general is a disaster for Mark Dantonion right now and as much as he dreams of having his guys play well in this game, there is not a chance in hell that this offense can get them to the endzone. The Buckeyes defense has allowed only two touchdowns all season long as they will pride themselves on keeping this number at two and not allowing any lucky or meaningless Bearcat touchdowns. Davila and Grutza are going to have all sorts of problems in this one and Ohio State should steamroll them.
You can talk all you want about Florida State almost losing to Troy last week in a classic 'Sandwich' spot and yadda yadda yadda. The bottom line remains that FSU was not #1 in the polls heading into the Troy game and FSU does not have one single player on that team that has any hopes whatsoever of winning the Heisman Trophy this season. The Buckeyes on the other hand have it all right now and even though they should be in letdown mode for this game, I think that being at #1 they are going to want to kick some big time ass and show the Country that they are not like FSU and they are not like past Ohio State teams where we see some big time letdown games. Also, the Buckeyes have two players showcasing themselves for the Heisman Trophy (Teddy Ginn and Troy Smith) and running up the score or going at this Cincinnati defense hard is going to be on the agenda. The Buckeyes don't have to pull out any secret plays, they just have to play Buckeye football and things will fall into place like they always should against much weaker teams like Cincinnati. Toss your sandwich ideas out right now. The Buckeyes average 418.0 total yards of offense this season on a whopping 7.1 yards per play and they get to go up against a Bearcats defense that has allowed 300+ yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play to two weak offensive teams. RB Antonio Pittman might get a ton of carries today but like I said before, do you think for one second that Ginn Jr. and Troy Smith are going to be quiet in this one? No chance. The ground game has not been impressive, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and if anything, the Buckeyes should know that Cincy is decent against the run, allowing only 2.5 yards per carry so far this season. Here is where things are about to get fun. The Buckeyes might not need a huge win in this one but once Smith goes to the air, he should have the easiest and best passing game he is going to have all year. The Buckeyes average an incredible 11.0 yards per pass attempt this year and they are facing are very young and inexperienced secondary that won't know what hit them once the Buckeyes start airing out some bombs. The Bearcats are allowing a huge 8.2 yards per pass attempt and although they do have three interceptions this season, Troy Smith doesn't throw picks and I don't see him getting picked off here. The key to this game for Ohio State will be to keep focused on the game at task and keep padding all those Heisman worthy stats late in the game like 70 yard touchdown bombs to Teddy Ginn. This is also the one game where I see Teddy returning a punt for a touchdown because the punt coverage on Cincinnati is horrendous and Ginn has the speed to blow these guys into next week. That punt return for a touchdown might be what wins us this wager but regardless, there is no sandwich to speak of in this situation and the Buckeyes should be able to score 50 points and allow less than 10 points. This is a Heisman performer showcase game and with the Buckeyes showcasing two players, the matchup has blowout written all over it.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following both ATS and SU wins.
Ohio State 44, Cincinnati 6
South Florida-Central Florida 'UNDER' 44.5 (2 Units)
Before I can even get into the reasons I like the UNDER in this game, please note that several South Florida players are not going to play in this game due to injury or suspenson. Starting RB Ricky Ponton has been suspended all season and has not played a down. Same goes for starting WR Jackie Chambers. Also out for this game are RT Marc Dile and LT Thed Watson. Adding insult to injury, backup RB Moise Plancher is out for the year and the inexperienced offensive lineup that played in South Florida's easy opening two games, is going to help us make a little bit of cash on the UNDER in this game. This is a rematch from last year's 31-14 win by South Florida that pretty much changed UCF' season for the better and got them further than they could have ever imagined. The Bulls from South Florida are coming off a near disaster loss to Florida International last week and I expect them to respond. They are averaging 395.5 total yards of offense on 6.8 yards per play but before you get too excited and fade me for the OVER, please understand that playing against McNeese State and Florida International will make your numbers look a lot better than they are. UCF's defense is coming off a blowout loss to Florida last weekend and in their opening two games, have allowed 7.0 yards per play. Ouch. However, the Florida Gators game was tough on UCF's defense but this injury riddle South Florida offense should be a little easier. The Bulls love to run the ball which is good for clock killing. They average a cool 5.4 yards per rush this season and get to go up against UCF's D-Line that has allowed 4.3 yards per carry this season. No worries. As I mentioned before, it will be both team's lack of offensive abilities that make this game go UNDER. QB Matt Grothe is a freshman don't forget and although he has played well this season, playing his first road game won't be easy and he won't be averaging the 8.0+ yards per pass attempt he was getting before this game. The UCF defense is horrendous against the pass but they do have some big playmakers and they do have three interceptions on the season which is good because Grother is young and he has already thrown two interceptions this season at home. UCF is also known for their ability to create turnovers and stay close in games which is bad news for the Bulls because South Florida is losing 1.5 fumbles per game so far and UCF can kill a lot of time with these turnovers. The bottom line is that South Florida is going to find it hard to score a lot of points in their first road game of the season as they have to face a defense that was humiliated by a powerhouse last week and that will find the USF players about 5000 thousand times easier to handle than the Gator players. South Florida won't score more than two touchdowns in this one and they might both be late.
The UCF Golden Knights had it all last year as they played in a Bowl Game for the first time ever in school history. However, the loss to Florida last week brought them back down to earth and helped this team understand that they have a lot to work on and that what they have done in practice this past week has to be evident when they take the field on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Knights lost this game in Tampa last year and they should be motivated to be playing their cross-state rivals one more time before they graduate. The only problem with the Golden Knights is that their offense is putrid and they might have some big time problems scoring points against a South Florida defense that has tons of experience and that is going to need to play well with a mangled up offense not doing much in terms of points for them. So far this season, the Golden Knights are averaging only 228.5 total yards of offense on only 3.9 yards per play which is quite pathetic when you think that they had a game against Villanova to kick off the year. Things only get worst when you mention that South Florida's defense is very underrated and that their defense is going to be the only line of defense for the Bulls in this game. The USF defense is allowing only 213.0 total yards of offense per game this season on only 3.5 yards per play. Wow. As for the ground game, the Golden Knights are probably one of the worst teams when it comes to running the ball as they average only 2.0 yards per carry on 63.0 rushing yards per game. Wanna hear the bad news for UCF? The Bulls are allowing only 58.7 rushing yards per game on only 1.7 yards per carry and there is virtually no hope of UCF getting something going on the ground. Hence the long and frustrating drives. In the air, QB Steven Moffett and the offense are averaging a very respectable 10.3 yards per pass attempt and they get to face a Bull secondary that has allowed 11.4 yards per pass attempt. However, with UCF having no ground game to speak of, USF is going to force the Knights to the ground and see if Moffett and friends dare come and try to air the ball out instead. The South Florida defenders are going to bring pressure attack blitzes and seeing that they already have three interceptions on the season, it would be wise for both teams to play conservative and try to win the field position battle. If they don't, then USF should win the game with their defense but regardless of what happens there, this game will no doubt stay UNDER the number. I see South Florida running and running and running some more in this game which should really kill the clock and force a lot of situations where the time is ticking and we are smiling.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-0 in UCF's last nine games after passng for 170 yards or less in their previous game.
Central Florida 21, South Florida 19
Wisconsin Badgers -13.5 (2 Units)
The San Diego Aztecs are not your typical mid conference road opponents that gets blown out by 40+ points when they leave home and go play in big houses. The Aztecs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as road underdogs of 10+ points but I will not let that stat faze me or distract me from playing the Badgers in a great spot here. The Aztecs led by ex-Hawkeye Chuck Long started the Long era with a 24-17 home loss to UTEP in Week 1 and have had the entire BYE week to prepare for this game. A little too prepared perhaps and I always found that teams with a BYE week tend to overhype games and come out playing like they've never played football before. It happens and the Aztecs are a young team. Here is the twist that not many of you have been talking about. San Diego State's star and starting QB Kevin O'Connell is out with a broken thumb (suffered against UTEP) and his backup QB Darren Mougey has tons of potential but what will he do with it in his first start of the season? Mougey works out with Donvan McNabb's trainer in the off-season and is apparently as fit as you can get. In their opener against UTEP, the Aztecs had 384 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play but must now face a new Wisconsin defense that is allowing only 12 points per game so far and allowing 273.5 total yards per game on 4.2 yards per play this season. The main weakness in the Wisconsin defense is their run defense since they allow 149.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry. However, the Aztecs need big games from RB Lynell Hamiltond and Mougey on the ground as they averaged only 2.4 yards per carry in their opener. In the air, Mougey was great against UTEP but coming into a rocking Camp Randall is going to be next to impossible. Sure the Aztecs average 9.2 yards per pass attempt but Wisconsin has some of the best DB's in the Big 10 and they have allowed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt with three interceptions and one sack. Mougey did throw an interception in the opener and he better be careful here. The Aztecs have a very bad special teams unit this season and that will probably be the difference between this game and the last few big games SDST has played in Big 10 houses. The key to stopping Mougey for Wisconsin's defense is to pressure him all afternoon, force him into big mistakes and see if he has the balls to throw deep on your DB's, which I don't think he can succesfully do in a nut house like Camp Randall. SDST fumbled four times in their opener because of nerves and if you think that was bad, wait until the Camp Randall faifthful start tearing the house down with some JUMP AROUND, JUMP AROUND!
The Wisconsin Badgers were being pegged by all experts as being the ones who were rebuilding this year and who had no chance whatsoever at winning more than 6-7 games. Well the Badgers have looked impressive so far under new coach Bret Bielema (who is also an ex Hawkeye) and they are now 2-0 after beating both Bowling Green and Western Illinois. I know offense has always been an issue and a concern for Wisconsin as they averaged only 20.8 points per game in 2004 but we saw a huge turnaround last year and the Badgers averaged 34.3 points per game in 2005. Well it seems like they are off on the same foot in the Bielema era as they Badgers have a total of 66 points this season in two games and have looked pretty damn decent when they have the ball on offense. The Badgers have Michigan next week but I don't see it being a problem because they need some type of momentum heading into league play and they also know that Michigan will be coming off a war with Notre Dame from this week. The Badgers have been averaging 328.5 total yards of offense in two games on 5.4 yards per play and even though they Aztecs did not allow that many yards against UTEP, they did allow 5.1 yards per play and they did get tagged for 34 points on some very bad special teams plays. We all thought that once RB Brian Calhoun was gone to the NFL, the Badgers would struggle badly running the ball. Not the case. Freshman RB PJ Hill has taken over the running scene and has passed the 100 rushing yards mark twice in two games. He ran for 130 against BG in his Wisconsin debut and 101 last week against Western Illinois. I don't see Hill having that big of a game in this one as the Aztecs run defense is decent and they held UTEP to only 38 yards rushing on 1.9 yards per carry. However, SDST has to respect the power run of PJ Hill and things should open up in the air by the second half. QB John Stocco has pissed me off over the years but he is back one last time. He has thrown only one interception so far this season and has completed 60% of his passes for two touchdowns and a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Aztecs secondary already has four interceptions this season but they do allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt which means that Stocco is going to have some big plays available deep downfield. He should have a lot of time to stay focused as SDST didn't have any sacks in Week 1. WR Pat Hubbard is going to be flying down the field and we will see a few big plays that should result in touchdowns. The Badgers might start by running the ball to gain a little respect on the ground but once the turnovers start coming from the defensive of things, Stocco is going to put this game away for good and show us that the Badgers are ready for Big 10 Conference action starting next week.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
Wisconsin 37, San Diego State 20
UL Monroe Warhawks +24.5 (1 Unit)
This is by far my smallest and least anticipated wager of the week but some variables stuck out when I capped this game and I do have some feeling that ULM is going to put up some type of fight and not become your typical everyday doormat for SEC teams to walk all over. The Warhawks are coming off a near shocker in Kansas last week as they lost 21-19 to the Jayhawks, a game they should have probably won. Head Coach Charlier Weatherbie has to be credited with what he has done with this team here because they have only five starters back on defense yet have been holding teams to a minimal amount of offense. We all know the Warhawks are going to give up some points in this one but the question is can their offense provide enough backup points to keep the spread within reason and to make the 0.5 hook a big time deal in this game? I think so. 8 starters are back from a team that averaged 30.8 points per game last season and 38.9 points per game in 2003. Weatherbie knows that he needs to score to cover in this game. The Warhawks have averaged 381.5 total yards of offense this season on a nice 5.9 yards per play while Alabama's defense has allowed 13.5 points per game against Hawaii and Vanderbilt and are allowing 303.5 total yards per game but on 5.7 yards per play. Ouch. I don't expect much from the ULM running game as RB Calvin Dawson and company are averaging only 125 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. Alabama is not a team you beat on the ground as they have allowed only 53.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.7 yards per carry. The onus is all on QB Kinsmon Lancaster who has been beyong outstanding so far this season and who has impressed everyone with his heroics. Lancaster passed for 382 yards and two touchdowns last week against Kansas and the very atheltic QB also rushed for almost 40 yards. The Warhawks as a team are averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt, the offensive line has been good enough to allow only one sack this season and Lancaster could make things a little interesting in this game. Alabama's pass defense has been mediocre at best allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season with two interceptions to speak of. We all know that this Alabama secondary is very beatable and a guy like Lancaster who can really run and mud sling should have some type of success completing big plays to a very good WR corps that is quickly developping into a Sun Belt powerhouse in this young season. The Warhawks (formerly known as Indians) are going to play well enough to keep things close and force the Alabama offense to play a conservative game to save themselves for their SEC road trip that includes Arkansas and Florida. Lancaster will be the difference and a late touchdown by the Warhawks will give us the spread cover.
What I find weird in this game is that the public has been pounding the living crap out of Alabama in this game yet the line has not moved and we have not seen the books budge on what they had originally thought of as a sharp line for this game. The line has not budged and I am happy dropping my money against an Alabama team that has shown me absolutely nothing to be favored by this many points. What I have seen is a team that is underachieving and that is now 0-2 ATS on the season despite wins over Hawaii and Vanderbilt. Alabama is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites of 20 or more points which tells me that Shula will keep this a conservative effort much like he has over the years and this game will be an attempt to get outstanding Senior RB Ken Darby going. The 13-10 win over a revamped Vanderbilt team was embarassing for the program and I don't know how much has been fixed in practice this week. I do know however that ULM is coming into this game with a lot of momentum and if the Tide are caught sleeping early, the 24.5 cover might be shot dead in the early going. The Tide have averaged 355.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play but must face a ULM defense that has done an outstanding job so far this season allowing only 282.5 total yards per game on only 4.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Tide really want to see RB Ken Darby get going and get going fast. The running game is averaging only 124.0 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry and that's just not good enough. ULM's defense is allowing 102.0 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry and might actually have some success keeping Darby to under 100 yards again. In the air, the only times I have seen QB John Parker Wilson this season are on MTV when he has appeared on that show called TWO-A-DAYS featuring his brother as QB of the Hoover High School Team. Maybe Wilson should concentrate on Alabama games seeing that he has completed less than 60% of his passes and thrown an interception. The Tide do average 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season but are up against a surprising good ULM secondary that is yielding only 5.8 yards per pass attempt so far and that is averaging 2.0 interceptions per game so far. Alabama might come flying out of the gates in this game but once they go up by 2-3 touchdowns, I have a feeling that they will start running and running only in hopes of getting Darby going. That means a lot of time killed and that means a few possessions where they punt the ball back to ULM and give them a chance to put more points up on the board. ULM's defense has come up with seven turnovers already this season and as long as they stick to the gameplan in this one, covering 24.5 points against this Bama offense is very possible and they should get a few scores (FG's) from the offense to keep things within the number.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.
Alabama 31, UL Monroe 10
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -19.5 (2 Units)
The North Texas Mean Green Machine are back in action this week and it's time to fade them to the bank after their 24-6 win over SMU last week. Not only did North Texas cover the spread in that game but they did so in convincing fashion. However, all they really did in my eyes is show oddsmakers how bad SMU really is and the proof of that lies in the line of 19.5 this week because the books realized that North Texas isn't as good as their 24-6 win would suggest. In fact, the books are predicting a blowout but they have chickened out on slapping a bigger line on this game and the line has starting moving to 20 at some of the books. I don't expect much more line movement but I do expect North Texas to get blown out of this house. Do you all remember Tulsa walking into NT's house last year and winning 54-2? I do and it was beautiful. What you have to understand about NT is that they will only go as far as their running game will take them and something tells me that 75% of the time, it won't be that far at all. To beat Tulsa, you have to have offense and you have to have a good offense. North Texas is averaging only 204.0 total yards of offense per game this season on only 4.0 yards per play and that's not good for them because once again, Tulsa is beatable but only if you can put things together offensively. The Golden Hurricanes have allowed 5.7 yards per play in two games this season but should have a much better game here. On the ground, RB Jamarrio Thomas is a TOP 10 back in the Nation but he has not shown it and North Texas is averaging a putrid 88 rushing yards per game on only 2.7 yards per pass attempt. The problem there is that Tulsa's run defense has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on 166.5 rushing yards per game. However, NT won't be running the ball much once they go down early and that will be a big problem for the Mean Green. In the air, QB Woody Wilson is the starter and he has completed 13 of his 16 passes for an 80%+ completion rate. He is good on his feet and Tulsa has to be careful. North Texas is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and they have allowed four sacks this season. Tulsa should bring some big time pressure in this game as they have allowed only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and have forced two interceptions and one fumble. Wilson is going to be a fun QB to bet on and make money because his stuff is going to work when NT has leads and when NT can go up on conference opponents. However, playing from behind won't be easy for Wilson and that is when we will start to see tons of mistakes. The Tulsa offense is too good and once NT starts slinging mud and trying to match touchdowns, this game will be done in no time. Sure it won't be a big time blowout like it was last year and North Texas should be able to score some but I don't see them doing much against a defense that just got embarassed by BYU and that is going to be looking for a big time rebound game as they have to play at Navy next week.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have impressed me since that 44-27 win over UCF in the CUSA Conference Championship game last season and I really like them in this spot seeing that they are coming off getting their asses handed to them 49-24 by the BYU Cougars last week (on the road don't forget). Kragthorpe worked the guys hard in practice this week and if the way Tulsa reacted to a loss in 2005 is any indication of how they will react this season, I should be dropping more money on this game. The Golden Hurricane were 4-0 ATS last season when playing off a straight up loss and Kragthorpe is developping into one of the top coaches in the CUSA Conference. Tulsa still has confidence that their offense can get the job done while their defense gets a breather but the shootout style game against BYU was too overwhelming Kragthorpe's guys. Well this week is different. The Golden Hurricane average a whopping 412.0 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.0 yards per play and they get to go up against a Mean Green defense that has allowed a whopping 340.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play against Texas and SMU. You can forgive them for Texas but did you know that Tulsa s averaging 34.5 points per game this season? On the ground, Tulsa was excused from showcashing their running game last week as they had to play from behind all game but in general, the running game is averaging 128.5 rushing yards per game on only 3.5 yards per carry. I expect Tulsa to open up the running game and keep a balanced attack against an NT defense that is yielding 161.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Paul Smith is fantastic. He is great with short passes for first downs and he should have no problems demolishing this undersized North Texas secondary. Smith has passed for 411 yards in two games, completing 67.8% of his passes and throwing for four touchdown passes. The Golden Hurricane average 9.0 yards per pass attempt and once Smith gets going, he should have an easy time putting points on the board against an NT defense that is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt and allowing opposing QB's to complete well over 60% of their passes. Tulsa's offensive line is very good when it comes to protection for Smith and he has not yet been sacked this season. Smith knows how to pick apart opposing secondaries and look for him to conduct several nice and long drives that result in a short yardage run for a touchdown or a QB sneak for Smith himself. The Golden Hurricane need a good game here coming off that digusting loss and I see them taking out some anger on North Texas, who are going to be helpless if they have to play from behind.
Trend of the Game: North Texas is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as both underdogs and road underdogs of 10.5 points or more.
Tulsa 41, North Texas 13
Florida State Seminoles -4.5 (5 Unit) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Bowden Bowl is back in business for another year and does anyone still believe that these two (father and son) have some type of agreement that lets the home team coach win and cover the spread? I mean it's been the same pattern year after year and yet nobody has said anything about this. I can't remember the last time this series has seen the road team cover a spread and that makes me think that they definitely have some type of family agreement on gameplan and stuff like that. Maybe not because they both want to win so bad but it could also be that one if so much better than the other when playing on their home turf. Well the Clemson Tigers and son Tommy are coming off a war that takes weeks to recover from and I don't even know if they are going to be around in the first half to defend their endzone. The Tigers are coming off a grueling 34-33 overtime loss at Boston College last week and if that doesn't take the complete wind out of you, I don't know what will. Surprinsingly enough, only 62% of the betting public have their money on FSU this week I guess still holding out hope that Clemson can come in here and do some damage after that loss. Not happening. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 431.0 total yards of offense on 6.1 yards per play this season but please understand that BC's defense is not what it used to be and Florida Atlantic was an easy pushover. The Florida State defense is quite possibly the best in the Country and they are allowing only 214.5 total yards per game on a miniscule 3.7 yards per play this season. The Tigers have had tons of success rushing the ball this season as they average 173.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry but they will run into a brick wall called the Seminoles Run Defense that is allowing 13.0 rushing yards per game this season on 0.7 yards per carry...WOW WOW WOW! This is some stout defense. In the air, QB Will Proctor has played well but will he be able to do anything against this FSU defense? The Tigers have scored 43.5 points per game and are averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt this season but how much of this will hold down in their second straight ACC Road game against an FSU defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt this season and that is averaging two interceptions per game already? Boston College did nothing to attack or pressure Proctor last week but FSU won't be so nice coming off a bad game. FSU is going to blitz like we have not seen them blitz in a while and they are going to come after Proctor with everything that they have in order to force turnovers and make him throw or drop balls he wishes he never threw. Proctor is a little too comfortable right now but FSU won't let that happen and we are going to see some huge plays from this defense. As much as Tommy wants to beat daddy after the huge loss to BC last week, there is no chance in hell that he walks into Tallahassee and gets away with a win or a cover for that matter. This one won't even be close.
The idea alone of losing a game to Troy still haunts most Florida State Seminoles players this week as they managed to escape a post Miami hangover game with a 24-17 win over the feisty and annoying Troy Trojans who just seemed to never want to go away. That was then and this is now. FSU has never been good when favored by a large amount at home but they have been good at home against Clemson over the years and they have been good when needing a rebound performance like this one. Bobby Bowden is getting old but he has made the message clear to his guys this year that getting to the National Title game is a must for the Seminoles this year and that he intends on winning one more National Championship before he retires. I like his chances this season to be honest with you guys. The remainder of the schedule is easy and I see Florida State playing against Ohio State for all the marbles. Even if the Buckeyes go without losing, Bowden knows that FSU has a shot and they need to impress in games like this one. The Troy game was a blunder but they ended up winning and this will be a coming out party for several FSU players who have still not shown up this season. The Seminoles have not had much offense this season and they are averaging only 278.5 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play. Mind you Miami's defense is damn good and Troy's defense is damn underrated but now it's time for FSU to open the floodgates and let the offense just roll. The biggest disappointment has been the running game of FSU with guys like Lorenzo Booker and Antoine Smith not getting the job done. The Noles average a putrid 23.0 rushing yards per game on 0.9 yards per carry this season and the way I see things, the running game can only get better which is going to be a bonus. The Clemson run defense has allowed only 78.5 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry but that was against two teams who don't run the ball well. In the air, QB Drew Weatherford needs to live up to his hype and I think he can do it in this game. Weatherford has not done anything all that special this season but he needs to get his act together and pick apart this Clemson defense. The Noles are averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt this season and Weatherford has been picked off twice. They have also fumbled five times but somehow managed to win two games. The thing is about Weatherford is that he looked like trash against Troy but great against Miami when he needed to be. He always plays well under pressure and this is going to be one of those situations. Clemson won't be able to get to Weatherford as much as they would like which means that he will have time to read the defense and time to make some big plays against a defense that allows 5.3 yards per pass attempt. As much as the Tigers want to bring pressure in this one, they have some health issues to deal with and FSU will be forcing turnovers left and right and the Tigers defense is going to quickly get tired in this one. I see FSU rolling big time in this game...and I mean big time with a blowout win at home like they did in '96, '98, '00, '02 and '04. This time around should be no different and we are going to see some fireworks.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Florida State 45, Clemson 10
RECAP:
West Virginia -16.5 WIN
Ohio State -29.5
South Florida-Central Florida 'UNDER' 44.5
Wisconsin -13.5
UL Monroe +24.5
Tulsa -19.5
Florida State -4.5
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
2006 CFB Record: 16-13 ATS (+3.80 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 13-12 ATS (+4.30)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 3-1 (-0.50 Units)
Last Week I went 7-3 and got back on track. This week I am 1-0. College football is the only sport where I am willing to bet on favorites and OVER bets because these kids play their asses off and laying off other teams is usually never an option. Anyways, my week 2 went very well as I got back on track and am now ready to kick some big time ass.
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Saturday, September 16
Ohio State Buckeyes -29.5 (2 Units)
Sandwich Game? Huh? The only sandwich part of this game is going to be the Chicken Teriyaki sandwich I am going to be eating while watching this game and making some money. I have seen countless articles from the media as well as professional handicappers talking about this being a big time sandwich game for the Buckeyes. Good teams are good and bad teams are bad. How about Texas last year? They came into Columbus, beat the Buckeyes and then covered as 40 points favs the following week with Missouri on deck. In some cases I do buy the sandwich theory but in most cases I don't. The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off one of the most pathetic ESPN games I have ever watched last week as they got blown away by Pitt 33-15. The Bearcats looked just horrendous on offense and they are now averaging 333.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play this season. However, the Buckeyes have faced some stiff competition and allowed only 334.5 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Bearcats don't really a groud game to speak of. They are averaging only 82.0 rushing yards per game on a pathetic 2.5 yards per carry and this is where they have been running into problems. The Buckeyes defense is top notch but their main concern is the run defense. They have allowed 130+ rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry but have faced some of the top backs in the Nation. Don't expext Cincinnati to have a ground game in this one as they will go down and have to throw the ball. In the air, QB Dustin Grutza will probably start with Nick Davila as his backup but both have looked atrocious against a defense like Pitt and both might look like even bigger disasters in this one. The Bearcats average 6.8 yards per pass attempt this season but have thrown two interceptions and have a questionable offensive line. The Buckeyes defense has enough talent on defense to pick off a few passes in this game and they have allowed only 5.6 yards per pass attempt so far this season. I expect a lot of pressure from the Buckeyes making life a lot harder for the Cincy QB's and creating a lot more turnovers than the Bearcats had hoped for. The QB situation and the offensive situation in general is a disaster for Mark Dantonion right now and as much as he dreams of having his guys play well in this game, there is not a chance in hell that this offense can get them to the endzone. The Buckeyes defense has allowed only two touchdowns all season long as they will pride themselves on keeping this number at two and not allowing any lucky or meaningless Bearcat touchdowns. Davila and Grutza are going to have all sorts of problems in this one and Ohio State should steamroll them.
You can talk all you want about Florida State almost losing to Troy last week in a classic 'Sandwich' spot and yadda yadda yadda. The bottom line remains that FSU was not #1 in the polls heading into the Troy game and FSU does not have one single player on that team that has any hopes whatsoever of winning the Heisman Trophy this season. The Buckeyes on the other hand have it all right now and even though they should be in letdown mode for this game, I think that being at #1 they are going to want to kick some big time ass and show the Country that they are not like FSU and they are not like past Ohio State teams where we see some big time letdown games. Also, the Buckeyes have two players showcasing themselves for the Heisman Trophy (Teddy Ginn and Troy Smith) and running up the score or going at this Cincinnati defense hard is going to be on the agenda. The Buckeyes don't have to pull out any secret plays, they just have to play Buckeye football and things will fall into place like they always should against much weaker teams like Cincinnati. Toss your sandwich ideas out right now. The Buckeyes average 418.0 total yards of offense this season on a whopping 7.1 yards per play and they get to go up against a Bearcats defense that has allowed 300+ yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play to two weak offensive teams. RB Antonio Pittman might get a ton of carries today but like I said before, do you think for one second that Ginn Jr. and Troy Smith are going to be quiet in this one? No chance. The ground game has not been impressive, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and if anything, the Buckeyes should know that Cincy is decent against the run, allowing only 2.5 yards per carry so far this season. Here is where things are about to get fun. The Buckeyes might not need a huge win in this one but once Smith goes to the air, he should have the easiest and best passing game he is going to have all year. The Buckeyes average an incredible 11.0 yards per pass attempt this year and they are facing are very young and inexperienced secondary that won't know what hit them once the Buckeyes start airing out some bombs. The Bearcats are allowing a huge 8.2 yards per pass attempt and although they do have three interceptions this season, Troy Smith doesn't throw picks and I don't see him getting picked off here. The key to this game for Ohio State will be to keep focused on the game at task and keep padding all those Heisman worthy stats late in the game like 70 yard touchdown bombs to Teddy Ginn. This is also the one game where I see Teddy returning a punt for a touchdown because the punt coverage on Cincinnati is horrendous and Ginn has the speed to blow these guys into next week. That punt return for a touchdown might be what wins us this wager but regardless, there is no sandwich to speak of in this situation and the Buckeyes should be able to score 50 points and allow less than 10 points. This is a Heisman performer showcase game and with the Buckeyes showcasing two players, the matchup has blowout written all over it.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following both ATS and SU wins.
Ohio State 44, Cincinnati 6
South Florida-Central Florida 'UNDER' 44.5 (2 Units)
Before I can even get into the reasons I like the UNDER in this game, please note that several South Florida players are not going to play in this game due to injury or suspenson. Starting RB Ricky Ponton has been suspended all season and has not played a down. Same goes for starting WR Jackie Chambers. Also out for this game are RT Marc Dile and LT Thed Watson. Adding insult to injury, backup RB Moise Plancher is out for the year and the inexperienced offensive lineup that played in South Florida's easy opening two games, is going to help us make a little bit of cash on the UNDER in this game. This is a rematch from last year's 31-14 win by South Florida that pretty much changed UCF' season for the better and got them further than they could have ever imagined. The Bulls from South Florida are coming off a near disaster loss to Florida International last week and I expect them to respond. They are averaging 395.5 total yards of offense on 6.8 yards per play but before you get too excited and fade me for the OVER, please understand that playing against McNeese State and Florida International will make your numbers look a lot better than they are. UCF's defense is coming off a blowout loss to Florida last weekend and in their opening two games, have allowed 7.0 yards per play. Ouch. However, the Florida Gators game was tough on UCF's defense but this injury riddle South Florida offense should be a little easier. The Bulls love to run the ball which is good for clock killing. They average a cool 5.4 yards per rush this season and get to go up against UCF's D-Line that has allowed 4.3 yards per carry this season. No worries. As I mentioned before, it will be both team's lack of offensive abilities that make this game go UNDER. QB Matt Grothe is a freshman don't forget and although he has played well this season, playing his first road game won't be easy and he won't be averaging the 8.0+ yards per pass attempt he was getting before this game. The UCF defense is horrendous against the pass but they do have some big playmakers and they do have three interceptions on the season which is good because Grother is young and he has already thrown two interceptions this season at home. UCF is also known for their ability to create turnovers and stay close in games which is bad news for the Bulls because South Florida is losing 1.5 fumbles per game so far and UCF can kill a lot of time with these turnovers. The bottom line is that South Florida is going to find it hard to score a lot of points in their first road game of the season as they have to face a defense that was humiliated by a powerhouse last week and that will find the USF players about 5000 thousand times easier to handle than the Gator players. South Florida won't score more than two touchdowns in this one and they might both be late.
The UCF Golden Knights had it all last year as they played in a Bowl Game for the first time ever in school history. However, the loss to Florida last week brought them back down to earth and helped this team understand that they have a lot to work on and that what they have done in practice this past week has to be evident when they take the field on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Knights lost this game in Tampa last year and they should be motivated to be playing their cross-state rivals one more time before they graduate. The only problem with the Golden Knights is that their offense is putrid and they might have some big time problems scoring points against a South Florida defense that has tons of experience and that is going to need to play well with a mangled up offense not doing much in terms of points for them. So far this season, the Golden Knights are averaging only 228.5 total yards of offense on only 3.9 yards per play which is quite pathetic when you think that they had a game against Villanova to kick off the year. Things only get worst when you mention that South Florida's defense is very underrated and that their defense is going to be the only line of defense for the Bulls in this game. The USF defense is allowing only 213.0 total yards of offense per game this season on only 3.5 yards per play. Wow. As for the ground game, the Golden Knights are probably one of the worst teams when it comes to running the ball as they average only 2.0 yards per carry on 63.0 rushing yards per game. Wanna hear the bad news for UCF? The Bulls are allowing only 58.7 rushing yards per game on only 1.7 yards per carry and there is virtually no hope of UCF getting something going on the ground. Hence the long and frustrating drives. In the air, QB Steven Moffett and the offense are averaging a very respectable 10.3 yards per pass attempt and they get to face a Bull secondary that has allowed 11.4 yards per pass attempt. However, with UCF having no ground game to speak of, USF is going to force the Knights to the ground and see if Moffett and friends dare come and try to air the ball out instead. The South Florida defenders are going to bring pressure attack blitzes and seeing that they already have three interceptions on the season, it would be wise for both teams to play conservative and try to win the field position battle. If they don't, then USF should win the game with their defense but regardless of what happens there, this game will no doubt stay UNDER the number. I see South Florida running and running and running some more in this game which should really kill the clock and force a lot of situations where the time is ticking and we are smiling.
Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 9-0 in UCF's last nine games after passng for 170 yards or less in their previous game.
Central Florida 21, South Florida 19
Wisconsin Badgers -13.5 (2 Units)
The San Diego Aztecs are not your typical mid conference road opponents that gets blown out by 40+ points when they leave home and go play in big houses. The Aztecs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as road underdogs of 10+ points but I will not let that stat faze me or distract me from playing the Badgers in a great spot here. The Aztecs led by ex-Hawkeye Chuck Long started the Long era with a 24-17 home loss to UTEP in Week 1 and have had the entire BYE week to prepare for this game. A little too prepared perhaps and I always found that teams with a BYE week tend to overhype games and come out playing like they've never played football before. It happens and the Aztecs are a young team. Here is the twist that not many of you have been talking about. San Diego State's star and starting QB Kevin O'Connell is out with a broken thumb (suffered against UTEP) and his backup QB Darren Mougey has tons of potential but what will he do with it in his first start of the season? Mougey works out with Donvan McNabb's trainer in the off-season and is apparently as fit as you can get. In their opener against UTEP, the Aztecs had 384 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play but must now face a new Wisconsin defense that is allowing only 12 points per game so far and allowing 273.5 total yards per game on 4.2 yards per play this season. The main weakness in the Wisconsin defense is their run defense since they allow 149.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry. However, the Aztecs need big games from RB Lynell Hamiltond and Mougey on the ground as they averaged only 2.4 yards per carry in their opener. In the air, Mougey was great against UTEP but coming into a rocking Camp Randall is going to be next to impossible. Sure the Aztecs average 9.2 yards per pass attempt but Wisconsin has some of the best DB's in the Big 10 and they have allowed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt with three interceptions and one sack. Mougey did throw an interception in the opener and he better be careful here. The Aztecs have a very bad special teams unit this season and that will probably be the difference between this game and the last few big games SDST has played in Big 10 houses. The key to stopping Mougey for Wisconsin's defense is to pressure him all afternoon, force him into big mistakes and see if he has the balls to throw deep on your DB's, which I don't think he can succesfully do in a nut house like Camp Randall. SDST fumbled four times in their opener because of nerves and if you think that was bad, wait until the Camp Randall faifthful start tearing the house down with some JUMP AROUND, JUMP AROUND!
The Wisconsin Badgers were being pegged by all experts as being the ones who were rebuilding this year and who had no chance whatsoever at winning more than 6-7 games. Well the Badgers have looked impressive so far under new coach Bret Bielema (who is also an ex Hawkeye) and they are now 2-0 after beating both Bowling Green and Western Illinois. I know offense has always been an issue and a concern for Wisconsin as they averaged only 20.8 points per game in 2004 but we saw a huge turnaround last year and the Badgers averaged 34.3 points per game in 2005. Well it seems like they are off on the same foot in the Bielema era as they Badgers have a total of 66 points this season in two games and have looked pretty damn decent when they have the ball on offense. The Badgers have Michigan next week but I don't see it being a problem because they need some type of momentum heading into league play and they also know that Michigan will be coming off a war with Notre Dame from this week. The Badgers have been averaging 328.5 total yards of offense in two games on 5.4 yards per play and even though they Aztecs did not allow that many yards against UTEP, they did allow 5.1 yards per play and they did get tagged for 34 points on some very bad special teams plays. We all thought that once RB Brian Calhoun was gone to the NFL, the Badgers would struggle badly running the ball. Not the case. Freshman RB PJ Hill has taken over the running scene and has passed the 100 rushing yards mark twice in two games. He ran for 130 against BG in his Wisconsin debut and 101 last week against Western Illinois. I don't see Hill having that big of a game in this one as the Aztecs run defense is decent and they held UTEP to only 38 yards rushing on 1.9 yards per carry. However, SDST has to respect the power run of PJ Hill and things should open up in the air by the second half. QB John Stocco has pissed me off over the years but he is back one last time. He has thrown only one interception so far this season and has completed 60% of his passes for two touchdowns and a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Aztecs secondary already has four interceptions this season but they do allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt which means that Stocco is going to have some big plays available deep downfield. He should have a lot of time to stay focused as SDST didn't have any sacks in Week 1. WR Pat Hubbard is going to be flying down the field and we will see a few big plays that should result in touchdowns. The Badgers might start by running the ball to gain a little respect on the ground but once the turnovers start coming from the defensive of things, Stocco is going to put this game away for good and show us that the Badgers are ready for Big 10 Conference action starting next week.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
Wisconsin 37, San Diego State 20
UL Monroe Warhawks +24.5 (1 Unit)
This is by far my smallest and least anticipated wager of the week but some variables stuck out when I capped this game and I do have some feeling that ULM is going to put up some type of fight and not become your typical everyday doormat for SEC teams to walk all over. The Warhawks are coming off a near shocker in Kansas last week as they lost 21-19 to the Jayhawks, a game they should have probably won. Head Coach Charlier Weatherbie has to be credited with what he has done with this team here because they have only five starters back on defense yet have been holding teams to a minimal amount of offense. We all know the Warhawks are going to give up some points in this one but the question is can their offense provide enough backup points to keep the spread within reason and to make the 0.5 hook a big time deal in this game? I think so. 8 starters are back from a team that averaged 30.8 points per game last season and 38.9 points per game in 2003. Weatherbie knows that he needs to score to cover in this game. The Warhawks have averaged 381.5 total yards of offense this season on a nice 5.9 yards per play while Alabama's defense has allowed 13.5 points per game against Hawaii and Vanderbilt and are allowing 303.5 total yards per game but on 5.7 yards per play. Ouch. I don't expect much from the ULM running game as RB Calvin Dawson and company are averaging only 125 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. Alabama is not a team you beat on the ground as they have allowed only 53.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.7 yards per carry. The onus is all on QB Kinsmon Lancaster who has been beyong outstanding so far this season and who has impressed everyone with his heroics. Lancaster passed for 382 yards and two touchdowns last week against Kansas and the very atheltic QB also rushed for almost 40 yards. The Warhawks as a team are averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt, the offensive line has been good enough to allow only one sack this season and Lancaster could make things a little interesting in this game. Alabama's pass defense has been mediocre at best allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season with two interceptions to speak of. We all know that this Alabama secondary is very beatable and a guy like Lancaster who can really run and mud sling should have some type of success completing big plays to a very good WR corps that is quickly developping into a Sun Belt powerhouse in this young season. The Warhawks (formerly known as Indians) are going to play well enough to keep things close and force the Alabama offense to play a conservative game to save themselves for their SEC road trip that includes Arkansas and Florida. Lancaster will be the difference and a late touchdown by the Warhawks will give us the spread cover.
What I find weird in this game is that the public has been pounding the living crap out of Alabama in this game yet the line has not moved and we have not seen the books budge on what they had originally thought of as a sharp line for this game. The line has not budged and I am happy dropping my money against an Alabama team that has shown me absolutely nothing to be favored by this many points. What I have seen is a team that is underachieving and that is now 0-2 ATS on the season despite wins over Hawaii and Vanderbilt. Alabama is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites of 20 or more points which tells me that Shula will keep this a conservative effort much like he has over the years and this game will be an attempt to get outstanding Senior RB Ken Darby going. The 13-10 win over a revamped Vanderbilt team was embarassing for the program and I don't know how much has been fixed in practice this week. I do know however that ULM is coming into this game with a lot of momentum and if the Tide are caught sleeping early, the 24.5 cover might be shot dead in the early going. The Tide have averaged 355.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play but must face a ULM defense that has done an outstanding job so far this season allowing only 282.5 total yards per game on only 4.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Tide really want to see RB Ken Darby get going and get going fast. The running game is averaging only 124.0 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry and that's just not good enough. ULM's defense is allowing 102.0 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry and might actually have some success keeping Darby to under 100 yards again. In the air, the only times I have seen QB John Parker Wilson this season are on MTV when he has appeared on that show called TWO-A-DAYS featuring his brother as QB of the Hoover High School Team. Maybe Wilson should concentrate on Alabama games seeing that he has completed less than 60% of his passes and thrown an interception. The Tide do average 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season but are up against a surprising good ULM secondary that is yielding only 5.8 yards per pass attempt so far and that is averaging 2.0 interceptions per game so far. Alabama might come flying out of the gates in this game but once they go up by 2-3 touchdowns, I have a feeling that they will start running and running only in hopes of getting Darby going. That means a lot of time killed and that means a few possessions where they punt the ball back to ULM and give them a chance to put more points up on the board. ULM's defense has come up with seven turnovers already this season and as long as they stick to the gameplan in this one, covering 24.5 points against this Bama offense is very possible and they should get a few scores (FG's) from the offense to keep things within the number.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.
Alabama 31, UL Monroe 10
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -19.5 (2 Units)
The North Texas Mean Green Machine are back in action this week and it's time to fade them to the bank after their 24-6 win over SMU last week. Not only did North Texas cover the spread in that game but they did so in convincing fashion. However, all they really did in my eyes is show oddsmakers how bad SMU really is and the proof of that lies in the line of 19.5 this week because the books realized that North Texas isn't as good as their 24-6 win would suggest. In fact, the books are predicting a blowout but they have chickened out on slapping a bigger line on this game and the line has starting moving to 20 at some of the books. I don't expect much more line movement but I do expect North Texas to get blown out of this house. Do you all remember Tulsa walking into NT's house last year and winning 54-2? I do and it was beautiful. What you have to understand about NT is that they will only go as far as their running game will take them and something tells me that 75% of the time, it won't be that far at all. To beat Tulsa, you have to have offense and you have to have a good offense. North Texas is averaging only 204.0 total yards of offense per game this season on only 4.0 yards per play and that's not good for them because once again, Tulsa is beatable but only if you can put things together offensively. The Golden Hurricanes have allowed 5.7 yards per play in two games this season but should have a much better game here. On the ground, RB Jamarrio Thomas is a TOP 10 back in the Nation but he has not shown it and North Texas is averaging a putrid 88 rushing yards per game on only 2.7 yards per pass attempt. The problem there is that Tulsa's run defense has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on 166.5 rushing yards per game. However, NT won't be running the ball much once they go down early and that will be a big problem for the Mean Green. In the air, QB Woody Wilson is the starter and he has completed 13 of his 16 passes for an 80%+ completion rate. He is good on his feet and Tulsa has to be careful. North Texas is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and they have allowed four sacks this season. Tulsa should bring some big time pressure in this game as they have allowed only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and have forced two interceptions and one fumble. Wilson is going to be a fun QB to bet on and make money because his stuff is going to work when NT has leads and when NT can go up on conference opponents. However, playing from behind won't be easy for Wilson and that is when we will start to see tons of mistakes. The Tulsa offense is too good and once NT starts slinging mud and trying to match touchdowns, this game will be done in no time. Sure it won't be a big time blowout like it was last year and North Texas should be able to score some but I don't see them doing much against a defense that just got embarassed by BYU and that is going to be looking for a big time rebound game as they have to play at Navy next week.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have impressed me since that 44-27 win over UCF in the CUSA Conference Championship game last season and I really like them in this spot seeing that they are coming off getting their asses handed to them 49-24 by the BYU Cougars last week (on the road don't forget). Kragthorpe worked the guys hard in practice this week and if the way Tulsa reacted to a loss in 2005 is any indication of how they will react this season, I should be dropping more money on this game. The Golden Hurricane were 4-0 ATS last season when playing off a straight up loss and Kragthorpe is developping into one of the top coaches in the CUSA Conference. Tulsa still has confidence that their offense can get the job done while their defense gets a breather but the shootout style game against BYU was too overwhelming Kragthorpe's guys. Well this week is different. The Golden Hurricane average a whopping 412.0 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.0 yards per play and they get to go up against a Mean Green defense that has allowed a whopping 340.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play against Texas and SMU. You can forgive them for Texas but did you know that Tulsa s averaging 34.5 points per game this season? On the ground, Tulsa was excused from showcashing their running game last week as they had to play from behind all game but in general, the running game is averaging 128.5 rushing yards per game on only 3.5 yards per carry. I expect Tulsa to open up the running game and keep a balanced attack against an NT defense that is yielding 161.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Paul Smith is fantastic. He is great with short passes for first downs and he should have no problems demolishing this undersized North Texas secondary. Smith has passed for 411 yards in two games, completing 67.8% of his passes and throwing for four touchdown passes. The Golden Hurricane average 9.0 yards per pass attempt and once Smith gets going, he should have an easy time putting points on the board against an NT defense that is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt and allowing opposing QB's to complete well over 60% of their passes. Tulsa's offensive line is very good when it comes to protection for Smith and he has not yet been sacked this season. Smith knows how to pick apart opposing secondaries and look for him to conduct several nice and long drives that result in a short yardage run for a touchdown or a QB sneak for Smith himself. The Golden Hurricane need a good game here coming off that digusting loss and I see them taking out some anger on North Texas, who are going to be helpless if they have to play from behind.
Trend of the Game: North Texas is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as both underdogs and road underdogs of 10.5 points or more.
Tulsa 41, North Texas 13
Florida State Seminoles -4.5 (5 Unit) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Bowden Bowl is back in business for another year and does anyone still believe that these two (father and son) have some type of agreement that lets the home team coach win and cover the spread? I mean it's been the same pattern year after year and yet nobody has said anything about this. I can't remember the last time this series has seen the road team cover a spread and that makes me think that they definitely have some type of family agreement on gameplan and stuff like that. Maybe not because they both want to win so bad but it could also be that one if so much better than the other when playing on their home turf. Well the Clemson Tigers and son Tommy are coming off a war that takes weeks to recover from and I don't even know if they are going to be around in the first half to defend their endzone. The Tigers are coming off a grueling 34-33 overtime loss at Boston College last week and if that doesn't take the complete wind out of you, I don't know what will. Surprinsingly enough, only 62% of the betting public have their money on FSU this week I guess still holding out hope that Clemson can come in here and do some damage after that loss. Not happening. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 431.0 total yards of offense on 6.1 yards per play this season but please understand that BC's defense is not what it used to be and Florida Atlantic was an easy pushover. The Florida State defense is quite possibly the best in the Country and they are allowing only 214.5 total yards per game on a miniscule 3.7 yards per play this season. The Tigers have had tons of success rushing the ball this season as they average 173.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry but they will run into a brick wall called the Seminoles Run Defense that is allowing 13.0 rushing yards per game this season on 0.7 yards per carry...WOW WOW WOW! This is some stout defense. In the air, QB Will Proctor has played well but will he be able to do anything against this FSU defense? The Tigers have scored 43.5 points per game and are averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt this season but how much of this will hold down in their second straight ACC Road game against an FSU defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt this season and that is averaging two interceptions per game already? Boston College did nothing to attack or pressure Proctor last week but FSU won't be so nice coming off a bad game. FSU is going to blitz like we have not seen them blitz in a while and they are going to come after Proctor with everything that they have in order to force turnovers and make him throw or drop balls he wishes he never threw. Proctor is a little too comfortable right now but FSU won't let that happen and we are going to see some huge plays from this defense. As much as Tommy wants to beat daddy after the huge loss to BC last week, there is no chance in hell that he walks into Tallahassee and gets away with a win or a cover for that matter. This one won't even be close.
The idea alone of losing a game to Troy still haunts most Florida State Seminoles players this week as they managed to escape a post Miami hangover game with a 24-17 win over the feisty and annoying Troy Trojans who just seemed to never want to go away. That was then and this is now. FSU has never been good when favored by a large amount at home but they have been good at home against Clemson over the years and they have been good when needing a rebound performance like this one. Bobby Bowden is getting old but he has made the message clear to his guys this year that getting to the National Title game is a must for the Seminoles this year and that he intends on winning one more National Championship before he retires. I like his chances this season to be honest with you guys. The remainder of the schedule is easy and I see Florida State playing against Ohio State for all the marbles. Even if the Buckeyes go without losing, Bowden knows that FSU has a shot and they need to impress in games like this one. The Troy game was a blunder but they ended up winning and this will be a coming out party for several FSU players who have still not shown up this season. The Seminoles have not had much offense this season and they are averaging only 278.5 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play. Mind you Miami's defense is damn good and Troy's defense is damn underrated but now it's time for FSU to open the floodgates and let the offense just roll. The biggest disappointment has been the running game of FSU with guys like Lorenzo Booker and Antoine Smith not getting the job done. The Noles average a putrid 23.0 rushing yards per game on 0.9 yards per carry this season and the way I see things, the running game can only get better which is going to be a bonus. The Clemson run defense has allowed only 78.5 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per carry but that was against two teams who don't run the ball well. In the air, QB Drew Weatherford needs to live up to his hype and I think he can do it in this game. Weatherford has not done anything all that special this season but he needs to get his act together and pick apart this Clemson defense. The Noles are averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt this season and Weatherford has been picked off twice. They have also fumbled five times but somehow managed to win two games. The thing is about Weatherford is that he looked like trash against Troy but great against Miami when he needed to be. He always plays well under pressure and this is going to be one of those situations. Clemson won't be able to get to Weatherford as much as they would like which means that he will have time to read the defense and time to make some big plays against a defense that allows 5.3 yards per pass attempt. As much as the Tigers want to bring pressure in this one, they have some health issues to deal with and FSU will be forcing turnovers left and right and the Tigers defense is going to quickly get tired in this one. I see FSU rolling big time in this game...and I mean big time with a blowout win at home like they did in '96, '98, '00, '02 and '04. This time around should be no different and we are going to see some fireworks.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Florida State 45, Clemson 10
RECAP:
West Virginia -16.5 WIN
Ohio State -29.5
South Florida-Central Florida 'UNDER' 44.5
Wisconsin -13.5
UL Monroe +24.5
Tulsa -19.5
Florida State -4.5
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
