MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. I decided before this season started that my ultimate goal would be profit and not showcasing. That is probably going to eliminate the possibility of me having 50 unit plays like last season (they are silly but fun) and I don't know that they go down very well in a serious community like this one. Anyways, best of luck to all this upcoming season, let's have some fun and keep sharing information.
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Thursday, August 30
UL Monroe Warhawks +3 (5 Units)
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane come into this season with only 10 returning starters although it's not the end of the world, they also have to break-in a brand new coach (many called for Todd Graham to win coach of the year in 2006 at Rice). After losing to Utah in the Armed Forces Bowl last year, they finished with a 7-6 record. However, with so many players gone and only 36 lettermen returning, it's going to take some time to get things going on both sides of the ball and working it out against the Warhawks could be bad news. Tulsa went only 6-5 ATS in 2006 which is nothing too special and although I know Graham is going to do a great job replacing Kragthorpe, but there is almost no chance that these guys can score the near 30 points a game they scored last year, having to learn a brand new system and all. Another big question mark tonight for Tulsa is the status of Oklahoma transfer RB Courtney Tennial who is said to be out with an Achilles problem. That would be a huge blow to the team because Tennial averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season and ran for 845 yards and 14 touchdowns. Regardless though, this is a deep backfield and the Golden Hurrican will get their fair share of yards in this one. ULM's biggest weakness is their secondary as they allowed quite a few yards last year. Defense is not going to win ULM games this season and we all know Tulsa is going to have an easy time moving the ball with the #1 QB in the CUSA (Paul Smith) at the helms. Turnovers were a problem last year and turnovers will probably be a problem again this year with the new head coach and the new system taking a while to get used to. The defense was good last year but it can't be as good this year. No chance. However, the reason I am not backing them is because they have too much youth on the offensive line and in the receiving corps and youth usually means a lot of mistakes in a new system. Mistakes will be costly tonight because I think both teams will trade touchdowns for the most part of the game.
The UL Monroe Warhawks have some pretty damn high expectations coming into this season as they were 4-8 last year but lost by 2 points against Kansas on the road and lost by two points against Kentucky on the road as double digit underdogs. Malone Stadium is by no means an intimidating place to play but the Warhawks have covered as home dogs in the past under Charlie Weatherbie (actually 3-3 ATS since he has been here with an 0-1 ATS mark last year). Now like I mentioned in the writeup for Tulsa, this team is not about to win anything on defense alone (they suck defensively) but their offense is loaded with weapons and I don't think Weatherbie is going to hold back tonight. If you had any concerns about turnovers with this ULM team, they were a nice +10 in turnover ratio last season (unlike most Sun Belt Conference teams) while Tulsa was a -5 in turnovers and they bring in a lot of young guys. With 11 returning starters on offense, I think ULM can do a lot more damage than Tulsa in this game as they run plays through RB Calvin Dawson. For those who don't know him he is a Senior RB who ran for 1210 yards, 11 TD's and 5.7 yards per carry last season which doesn't bode well for Tulsa's somewhat mediocre defensive line. Tulsa does have a good secondary but ULM has the #1 receiving corps in the Sun Belt and they have one of the best offensive lines in the conference which should give them time to let QB Kinsmon Lancaster operate with ease. I know these guys finished with a 4-8 record last year but let it be known that they lost 5 games by five points or less which means they could very easily have had a 9-3 or 8-4 kinda record and competed for the conference title. Beware of these guys they have a lot of players back. There will be no holding back tonight for Charlie Weatherbie and his guys and I expect them to win this shootout.
I don't know about you guys but this live dog is probably going to make a lot of noise tonight. These two teams met back in 1999 in Tulsa and let me tell that as +7.5 underdogs, the ULM Warhawks came in and made a name for themselves by winning the game 37-34. This is one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt Conference and although Tulsa is going to score their fair share of points as well, it will be UL Monroe that comes out on top and has the fans running all over the field in Malone Stadium.
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 0-12 SU in their last 12 road openers.
UL Monroe 35, Tulsa 32
Mississippi State Bulldogs +18.5 (3 Units)
The LSU Tigers are going to be on my betting list more times than not this season but with a monster game against America's Team Virginia Tech on the horizon in just over a week, you can't help but think this team is not going to take this game all that seriously. I know Les Miles talked about every game being just as important as the other because if you perform poorly against one underdog, you can easily drop in the rankings and never make it back to the top of the grid. Yeah he's right about that. However, a lot of people are not aware that the Tigers have brought in a new offensive coordinator to take care of business and although Gary Crowton did a marvelous job at Oregon last season, I just don't know that he will mesh with Senior QB Matt Flynn as well as Jimbo did with his two QB's for the last few years. Jamarcus Russell was king here at LSU and every play in the playbook was designed for him to gain 20-30 yards at a time. That would explain why LSU was able to blow out so many opponents and strike so fast. With Matt Flynn though you have to be cautious. He only has one start under his belt and that was a somewhat pressure-less start in the 2005 Peach Bowl. He attempted only 20 passes all of last season and averaged some 6.0 yards per pass attempt (Russell was in the upper 9.0 yards per pass attempt) so expect things to move a lot slower. Also keep in mind that LSU went 2-2 in SEC road games last season and that the key to this game for them will be to make Flynn and the offense comfortable with the new OC. Mississippi State's defense is weak and they allow yardage in chunks but that's not how the offense is built this time around for LSU so if the Bulldogs can make a few stops here and there in this game, they'll have a great chance of getting things done against an LSU team that comes into the season with a ton of pressure as the #2 team in the Country. Flynn's career completion percentage is 55% in three total starts which is not that bad but it ain't that good. Flynn has to be really careful in this one because the 55 000+ in attendance are going to make some noise and Derek Pegues is going to be roaming the field looking to pick some of Flynn's passes off. Pegues is one of the best DB's in the SEC and he might make a name for himself tonight.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into this Nationally Televised affaire with a lot of hope and pride that they can win this game. I have been talking about all week how four years ago, Sylvester Croom promised his new recruits that by the time they left Starkville, they would be competing for an SEC Title and they would be having the time of their lives. The latter might be true but I don't think Mississippi State is going to be up there in the end, I mean they are coming off back-to-back-to-back three win seasons. Regardless though, they showed serious signs of improvement last season by almost beating Mississippi on the road, by keeping Arkansas within the number at home, by beating Alabama on the road, by losing to Georgia by only 3 points on the road and by beating UAB as 10 point underdogs on the road. This is definitely a tougher challenge than any of those they faced last year but with 9 returning starters on offense, I have a feeling the Bulldogs can somehow garner at least 10-14 points on LSU in this game (based on crowd energy and motivation from Croom). Defensively is where they might have problems because they have only 5 returning starters from a team that allowed 25.8 points per game last season. Offensively everyone keeps talking about how Miss State has to run for at least 200 yards in this game if they want a shot at covering but I beg to differ. QB Michael Hennig played pretty damn well last season and I think he can get the offense going in this one. He averaged a whopping 16.2 yards per pass attempt last season, throwing 7 touchdowns and 9 interceptions but he does have a lot more game experience than Matt Flynn and there is virtually no pressure on this kid to get things done tonight. Why not air it out tonight? The Bulldogs have about the same level of talent/experience as the LSU wide receiving corps as they bring back five players who caught 10 or more passes (three who caught 20 or more) and have one of the better deep threats in this game in WR Tony Burks although he is bothered by a bad knee and might not play. Regardless, Starkville is going to be a happening place tonight and as long as the offense can score more than 7 points, they'll be just fine.
Most of you will say it doesn't make much sense to back this underdog seeing how LSU has won 7 straight against them (14 of the last 15, thanks Phil Steele for that) and have outscored them 250-43 in the last six meetings. Yes that looks pretty damn discouraging for the Bulldogs and their backers but don't lose hope before this one gets underway. Nobody really expects Mississippi State to win this game but covering the game is not impossible. Matt Flynn has done a great job as the backup the last who knows how many years but I just don't fully trust him to cover this large spread on opening night in only his second career start (first pressure cooker starts thats for sure). Get ready for a decent game tonight guys and don't be surprised if Mississippi State keeps this close with a few big plays. Cue the 'LSU SUCKS' threads.
Trend of the Game: LSU is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 SEC conference games.
LSU 28, Mississippi State 13
Friday, August 31
Syracuse Orangemen +3.5 (3 Units)
The Washington Huskies are going to be a much better team this season than the 5-7 Huskies we saw last season because this is Ty Willingham's third season here and third seasons are when head coaches start to make noise or progress with a program. However, I have to warn you right now, and I don't know why this would change, that since joining this team two season ago Willingham has won only three games on the road. As a matter of fact the Huskies are 4-17 away from home the last five seasons and they now have the pleasure of kicking off their season on the road versus a home team that no matter how shitty they are, have a bigger home field advantage than many other teams. The Huskies are going to start redshirted freshman QB Jake Locker tonight who is apparently already a superstar in Seattle but im not convinced that he can come out East and play the game of his life. I mean this is his very first career college football start and it comes the Carrier Dome which has seen the home underdog cover 9 of the last 14 games as exactly that, a home underdog. Locker is a dual threat QB who has the opportunity to do anything he wants tonight as long as he doesn't make mistakes. Syracuse's defense is borderling horrendous (dead last in the Big East in almost every category talent wise). Syracuse allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the ground in 2006 so I think we are going to see a lot of running by Locker in this game. The only issue is that Syracuse returns quite a few guys who can pick passes off (returning defensive players had 11 interceptions combined in 2006) and with the inexperience of the new QB, I think the Orangemen can force some turnovers in this game. Regardless of how their defense plays, I don't think Washington is going to be effective enough on offense to grab a comfortable lead and even at that, they could quite possibly be playing from behind most of this game.
The Syracuse Orangemen have been picked by many to finish dead last in the Big East (which is not saying much considering some of the teams at the bottom of this pile) but that doesn't mean it will necessiraly happen. I know they have the least amount of returning starters in the Big East with 12 guys back from last year and I know Greg Robinson's job is on the line if this team doesn't come out of the gates and win at least three of their first five games so expect them to be ready tonight. Syracuse has struggled badly in previous home openers (the last five years have been a disaster) but I do like the fact that PAC 10 schools have a lot of problems when they play in the Carrier Dome as the PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in Syracuse. I'm not looking at how the Orange defense is going to do in this game because the defesive side of things is going to be dictated by the offensive side of things and for some reason I think the Orange offense is going to surprised quite a few people in this game. QB Andrew Robinson is another first time starter (much like Loker) but he has attempted 8 passes and rushed for 45 on nine attempts. You had to be impressed by Robinson when he came in against Rutgers last season for the first time and led them on an 80 yard touchdown drive. The biggest weakness on the Washington defense (and there are many) is defintiely their secondary. That gets me excited because WR's Taj Smith and Mike Williams are both in the TOP 10 receivers for the Big East and both averaged more than 18.0 yards per catch last season. The Huskies are completely hopeless and undersized against both of these guys and I don't doubt for a minute that Syracuse can pound the ball deep or short up the middle and get some big yardage plays in this game. I know Robinson is not battle tested but he is lucky that another first time starter is on the other side of the ball and I actually think Robinson will be the better looking QB of the two in this game.
The bottom line here is that playing the Carrier Dome is tough. However, this is one of the most winnable games all year for Syracuse as they face a PAC 10 team coming from out West who are starting a young prodigy QB for the first time ever. Well the Orange have somewhat of a future star starting for them as well as he is actually a bit more seasoned (8 pass attemps) than the Washington quarterback who has never played a single down in college football. If you don't believe me that this place is tough to play in just look at Syracuse's 29-12 ATS record in their last 41 home games (over the last seven seasons) and that tells the story. Also keep in mind that Washington is one of the worst road teams in the entire country and I just don't understand why people think they will win when they have won only 4 of their last 21 road games.
Trend of the game: The PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in the Carrier Dome.
Syracuse 31, Washington 16
Saturday, September 1
East Carolina Pirates +27.5 (5 Units)
You can call me a nut for going against America's Team (the Hokies) and you can bet your bottomr dollar the Pirates will probably be overwhelmed early in this game but that doesn't mean that with a spread so large, a team like the Pirates can't get the job done in the second half or possibly via the Moose job. To get it out of the way early, starting QB Rob Kass is out for the game after getting arrested for a DUI but people are making too big a deal out of this. The line has since moved 3 points since this was announced but from what I hear the QB position battle was really close anyways and all three QB's are game ready. Replacing him will be Patrick Pinkney, so we hear, which is both good and bad. It's bad because going to Blackburg without ever having played a college football down as a QB is not good news and good because I actually think he's better than Kass. What people don't understand is that Kass being out was not worthy of the line moving that many points because East Carolina was already anticipated to have the worst QB corps in the Conference USA this season. What they do have however is a very strong offensive line and a very experienced RB in Chris Johnson. But who the hell cares. Bud Foster's defense is probably going to maul these guys most of the afternoon as they return 8 starters on defense and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry anyways last season. The key for East Carolina is going to be their ability to make plays on defense which I think they can do in this game. So with all eyes on Pinkney and his backup Brett Clay, neither of who have ever played a down in college football, I think the task is going to be tough but I do like teams with good defense to cover spreads and I do think that the Pirates defense is up to snuff to keep this one withing the number.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have the entire Nation pulling for them this season and the really deserve it after going through what they did last spring. The tragedy touched everyone in this nation and they even have the College GameDay crew coming out to Blacksburtg for the first week of the season. So with all these expectations and with all the emotions and energy of the crowd, students, players and everyone else, how is Virginia Tech going to come out and play? The last three years Virginia Tech has won their home openers by a combined score of 146-0 but that doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Frank Beamer has faced this East Carolina team enough times in his career at Virginia Tech to know what they are capable of. Although the Hokies have won the last five games against the Pirates, the average margin of victory is only 20.0 points per game which is a full 7.5 points less than the posted spread for this game. The Hokies have one of the top defenses in the Nation but what I really question is their offense. Sean Glennon makes a lot of good plays but for every good play he makes, he goes out and makes a stupid one too and the proof of that was his 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions thrown last year. Against about any other team I think he could have a good opening game but something tells me he is coming out of the gates a little too excited for this one. Glennon is proably going to rely heavily (like he did last year) on the running game of Brandon Ore who rushed for 1137 yards last season and 16 touchdowns for 4.7 yards per carry. Well since the arrival of Skip Holtz in Greenvile, the East Carolina Pirates have trimmed their points per game allowed by 19.1 points per game and he has 8 starters back on defense who can make some big plays. The Pirates have an outstanding defensive line who can control Ore and they have some guys who can plays on the defensive side of things. Too many times last year Sean Glennon came out of the gates working the motions and if he does that here or if he gets too excited about making this emotional first start since the disaster, I think he gives the cover away.
It has been more than three years since a team has come to Virginia Tech for their home opener and scored some points against them. The Hokies have shutout their last three home opening opponents and I usually wouldn't put it past them to do it again. However, East Carolina is a team that means business coming off that Bowl appearance last year and although Skip Holtz doesn't seem too confident in these guys and although their starting QB is out, this is a great opportunity for them to let the Nation know that they are alive and kicking. The hype and excitement is going to be huge for this game but I think that could ultimately harm the Hokies and force them into a few things they wouldn't usually do on the field. I'll take the points in this one.
Trend of the Game: East Carolina is 9-0 ATS in September games since the arrival of head coach Skip Holtz.
Virginia Tech 31, East Carolina 9
Michigan State Spartans -21.5 (2 Units)
The Alabama-Birmingham Blazers are coming off a 3-9 season that saw them reach futile numbers in several offensive and defensive categories. Since starting football operations back in 1991, UAB has managed to win only once when playing their first road game of the season so you can forget about any kinds of upsets happening in this bad boy. We are talking about a team that could quite possibly win only one or two games this season seeing how they were horrendous in 2006 while returning 12 starters on both sides of the ball so how the hell are they gonna manage now that they are returning only 8 total combined starters on both sides of the ball? They aren't. Neil Callaway takes over this team, making his first ever college football start as a head coach so if that doesn't confuse a team, I don't know what will. With Florida State waiting in the horizon next week, I don't know that this football program is even going to care to show up for games until it really matters for them on September 15 when they get to face Alcorn State in their home opener. The Blazers are renovating their entire offense and moving into a pro-style attack even though they are missing several key piece of the puzzle to pull the move off and that can only spell trouble. Michigan State, despite sucking ass on defense last year, is returning 6 starters on the defensive side of things and no matter how poorly they once again end up playing (allowing chunks of yardage at a time), there isn't antything UAB can really do in this game that will allow them to score more than 7-10 points. No chance in hell with everyone on the offense still learning and with the new coach trying to figure out what it takes to be a head coach or a coach at all at this level. I don't mean to make fun of teams because it usually comes back to bite me in the ass but too many people are betting on UAB based on how poorly MSU has played the last few seasons and that is a big mistake because UAB was only 4-8 ATS last season and this is a great chance for some top notch conference teams to unload on them this early on in the season when they still look clueless. No point showing up for this disaster.
The Michigan State Spartans are ready to begin the Mark Dantonio era after he came swooping over here all the way from Cincinnati. One thing we already know about Dantonio from his days back at Ohio State is that he likes to win, he likes to make things simple and he doesn't back down from anybody. Some of you will probably be scared away from betting such a large spread on the Spartans opening home game because of their 10 point win last season as -29 point underdogs against Idaho and because of their failure to cover the double digigt spread against Central Michigan in the home opener the year before. Well that makes a lot of sense but when a new coaching staff with this much experience steps into a big program, they usually want to make a statement and they usually want to show the hometown fans that the signing was worthy and that this is a season to look forward to. I am kind of excited to see QB Brian Hoyer take over for the departed Drew Stanton because this Michigan State team just can't get any worse than the 4-8 they were last year and they can only improve on the 3-8-1 ATS mark they were labeled with in 2006. Hoyer has a very strong arm and has enough experience to lead this team to big things. He has appeared in 13 games over the last two years passing for 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 1000+ yards which is not bad for a guy learning the ropes. Javon Ringer only managed 86 rush attempts last season but he rushed for 497 yards in those attempts for 1 touchdowns and 5.8 yards per carry. Now that things are back to normal, I think he is going to be the star on this team against the weakest defense in the Conference USA. UAB stands no chance of stopping anyone on the ground in this game and things are going to get pretty damn ugly before halftime, I can guarantee you that. UAB have only 4 starters back on defense but they are not talented starters and after allowing 4.3 yards per carry last season with 7 starters back on defense, this team is in huge trouble. Michigan State doesn't have to do much in this game to win by at least 30 and I think this is going to get people in East Lansing pretty damn excited about the season.
This is almost not about Michigan State covering and winning the game, it's more about fading those clowns making the trip from Birgmingham and going against what could be one of the weakest teams in Division 1-A football this season. Michigan State is coming off some horrendous football seasons and although they won't turn things around completely, a new head coach (and a proven one at that) is exactly what they need around here and I think they are going to surprise more than just a few people this season. Hoyer and Ringer are going to absolutely trash this UAB defense that has only 4 starters back and with TJ Williams announcing that he is ready to go for this game, I don't know how UAB plans on keeping the Spartans under 50 points scored. This is gonna get nasty guys and I hope for once we can all applaud a Michigan State win and cover.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 8-0 SU in their last eight home openers winning by an average of 18.0 points per game.
Michigan State 48, Alabama-Birmingham 3
Nevada Wolfpack +21.5 (5 Units)
The Nevada Wolfpack have been one of the best money making options over the last few seasons as they have covered 17 of their last 22 games on the ATS front and that makes them an attracting wager here. However, all those games were with senior and now departed QB Jeff Rowe. I read somewhere that although one of Chris Ault's most inexperienced teams ever with only 12 returning starters this season, Ault is the most impressed by the willingness to succeed some of these guys are showing. That stems from the 'Nevada Run' which is a gruelling run that every player has to participate in before the season starts and for the very first time Chris Ault's 23 years as the head coach of this team, every single player finished under the set time. That's dedication and I hope these guys come out showing that type of dedication in this game. Expect both QB's Nick Graziano and Colin Kaepernick to see some time in this game. They are both fresh out of the gates but can both sling the ball downfield or run with it just as well. Nebraska's defensive line is one of the weakest in the Big 12 so I expect the Wolpack to slow this game down early, even if they go down by a touchdown or two, in hopes of letting their guys get comfortable with the system and letting their young QB work his thing out. RB's Luke Lippincott and Brandon Fagger are both back this season and they both averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season and scored 12 combined touchdowns in only 149 combined carries. With the threat of their QB's running and the threat of two good RB's, I think Nevada can do enough in this game to keep it close for the most part and maybe sneak in some scores at the end for the cover. This is just way too many points to pass up on for a team that has covered so many games over the last few years and there is no chance that I am missing out on this party. Nevada does have a shaddy history of opening road games having lost 11 straight road openers by 23.0 points per game but I think this team can get the job done.
The Nebraska Cornuskers and namely some of their players are going to be under an immense amount of pressure to blow this Nevada team out of the water. They had a similar WAC Conference opponent in Louisiana Tech last season and they killed them 49-10 to open the season. However, make no mistake about it, Louisiana Tech is not a well coached team while Nevada has one of the best coaches in the WAC Conference and good coaches know what to do to keep games from turning into blowouts like the game did last year. This is the big debut of Sam Keller, the disgruntled Arizona State transfer who sat out last year, and with his debut comes a ton of pressure on him to get things done. It has been since 2005 that Keller has stepped on any football field and made any kind of pass attempt and he could be rusty as hell coming out of the gates here. Nevada's defense is a lot better than people give them credit for as they allowed only 19.2 points per game in 2006 and have the pleasure of returning 7 starers from that defense. In his seven Arizona State starts, Keller did complete only 59% of his passes and he did throw 9 interceptions to go along with his 20 touchdown passes. Keller has several options on offense and I think eventually things are going to start happening but with the Wake Forest away game in the horizon, it is very possible that Nebraska be looking ahead and very possible that they somewhat struggle against what I called an underrated defense. The Cornuskers return only 11 starters on both sides of the ball combined and that's a big loss for them compared to the 15 they returned last year. Under Bill Callahan the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS as a home favorite when returning less than 15 starters from the year before and like I said before, the number is just way too high for a rusty quarterback who has not played in two years and who is up against a very pesky team with a coach of 23 years at the helsm.
This is an interesting game. The public will surely pound away on Nebraska thinking that Sam Keller is the next Zac Taylor but that might not be the case until a few games later in the season. This is by far the easiest game for Nebraska on their early schedule and that has me excited because they may very well try to keep things as simple as possible for Keller which means that the pace of this game is going to be a lot slower than most blowouts accept. Nevada does have the tools to keep things on the ground against a weak Nebraska defensive line and that alone may be enough to slow this game down to the point where Nevada can score a few points early and keep the cover in check. This is the very first meeting between these two teams and the one thing I have learned the last few years is that Nevada cannot be underestimated.
Trend of the Game: Nevada is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 overall games.
Nebraska 34, Nevada 20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +2 (3 Units)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets come into South Bend off a 9-5 season but they come in with a bit of bad news and whole lot of good news. The bit of bad news is that All-American wide receiver Calvin Johnson is gone and now playing in the NFL and the great news is that last year's QB Reggie Ball has graduated and there is no chance of him coming into this game and throwing some of his infamous INT's or getting sacked for -25 yards. The Yellow Jackets are used to the road underdog role in games like this and it does not bother them as they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the road underdog which goes back a full three seasons so don't be shocked when they come out and win this game straight up. Georgia Tech is one of the better teams to bet on when it comes to banking on a team to open well on the road. They are 3-0 in their last three road opening games winning all three as underdogs against ranked teams. It doesn't get more impressive than that as they beat the #20 ranked Clemson in 2004, the #16 ranked Auburn in 2005 and the #21 ranked Virginia Tech in 2006...impressive shit guys. You can forget about the Yellow Jackets taking this game to the air. I think they are going to run things through RB Tashard Choice who was just oustanding last year with his 1473 yards rushing for 12 TD's and a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. The Notre Dame defense is working on new schemes and the defense returns only 5 starters which is a disaster. Choice should have no problems steam rolling a very inexperienced defensive line and that ultimately will allow the young GTech offense to get going with the air game when they choose to. With 9 starters back on defense last year, Notre Dame allowed 23.6 points per game and did a pretty damn good job. However with only 5 starters back I think they are going to struggle somewhat and Georgia Tech is going to make them pay for their inexperience.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this season with a lot lower expectations than they did in 2006 because almost their entire offense is gone and they return only four players on that side of the ball. You have to love the fact that Notre Dame is an impressivw 17-3 in their last 20 home games and the fact that Charlie Weiss is one of the best coaches out there. However, that does not mean they are going to win this game. I think Notre Dame can keep this game close early on and probably build on the excitement of opening weekend and the excitement of the crowd but it won't take long for the new QB, whoever the hell he is since Charlie won't let us in on the little secret but frankly I don't care, to start having problems and making mistakes. So when you have a corps of young QB's all playing for one spot on the roster, you are surely going to have guys making mistakes. You have to consider that the offense has to somewhat rebuild not that the particular style of play Brady Quinn brought is gone and that could also cause problems. No matter which way you look at it, things don't look too good for the Irishmen and I say that because Georgia Tech has one of the best defensive lines in the ACC and they can stuff the run. If the Irish take this game to the air, the young QB's are probably going to take baby steps when it comes to moving the ball and that won't be enough to keep things going against a very good Yellow Jackets team that is returning 8 starters on defense. Jon Tenuta (the GT defensive coordinator) has led one of the most impressive and most underrated defenses in the country in two of the last three seasons. Without Quinn and some other offensive weapons like Darius Walker, the Fighting Irish are in for a long stretch of games and I don't see this team getting anywhere close to what they did last year. Enjoy the game Irish fans because it may be the closes you get to covering in a very long time.
RUUDY RUUDY RUUDY RUUDY. Yeah we all watched the movie but that son of a gun is nowhere in sight in this game and there ain't no pretty story about to happen right here. This game most definitely has BCS implications for both teams because the winner is sitll alive for a monster season while the loser is most likely not going to have much of a chance to get to the BCS games at the end of the year. Notre Dame's offense just lacks too much experience to even have a shot agianst this Georgia Tech defense and even if the Yellow Jackets struggle to score points, I don't think the Irish are going to fair much better. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses at this time of the year and that bodes very well for Georgia Tech. I'll take the underdogs in this one.
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus INDEPENDENT teams.
Georgia Tech 24, Notre Dame 19
Missouri Tigers -4.5 (5 Units)
The Missouri Tigers come into this season with some pretty damn high expectations and it all starts with game #1. They are coming off an impressive 8-5 campaign after losing to Oregon State in stunning fashion in the Sun Bowl late last year but that Bowl Game loss and the way it happened has left them hungry for more this season and I think they come out this week and make quite the statement in their opener. The Tigers have a whopping number of players back on offense this year as they return 9 starters for Gary Pinkel who is back here for his 7th season as the head coach. I really like the fact that there is no look-ahead game anywhere in sight for this team so they can concentrate on one game at a time and concentrate on running up the score in all their games. With guys like QB Chase Daniel (3527 yards passing, 28 TD's and 10 interceptions in 2006) and WR William Franklin (48 catches for 829 yards and 6 TD's in 2006) still on this team, I think the books have made a big mistake setting the line so low and I say that because sure RB Tony Temple is going to miss the game and his 1063 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns are going to be missed but this team is loaded with talent and they can easily replace him seeing how they have a top tier offensive line. The Tigers up aganist an Illinois defense that allowed a crazy amount of points per game since Zook's arrival and even though they do bring 9 starters back to this team, they did the same last year and still allowed 26.8 points per game. I am a big fan of Chase Daniel's and I think he is going to have an easy time picking apart this up-and-coming Illinois secondary in the opening game. It might take time but when the train gets rolling, it will probably get a bit out of control and we are going to see some good things from the Tigers. Im telling you they are still pissed at that loss in the Bowl Game.
The Illinois Fighting Illini have to open the season in a very familiar spot. Out of their last 8 season opening games, two of them were played in St. Louis and both of them were losses. What makes this even funnier is that Illiniois is 6-2 in their last 8 season openers with the two games here being the only two losses. So with such a low spread and with some of the games not being so close, I really like Missouri to give the Illini a season opening ass whooping. To win on the road and to win season opening games you have to have some good special teams and the Fighting Illini don't have that. I know Juice Williams is something special and I actually fear betting against at home this season when he is the underdog but Juice is still young and he still has a lot to learn to be able to win games like this one in hostile environments. Don't forget that Williams completed only 39.5% of his passes last season for 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions which could become a huge problem in this game even though Missouri returns only 5 starters on defense. Regardless of how many guys are back though, this is the same defense that held opponents to 19.5 points per game in 2006 and 19.5 points per game in 2004. The schemes are the same and the staff is the same so expect the younger guys to learn fast and to adjust enough to stuff this Illini attack. I mean seeing how they are weakest in the secondary and seeing how Juice Williams can't even complete more than 39.5% of his passes, I just don't see how Illinois is a threat in this game. Juice Williams can run all he wants but the bottom line is that this is an experienced Missouri defensive line he is facing and like he did so many times last season, I think mistakes are going to be the name of the game here. In his two road opening games as head coach of Illinois, Ron Zook has lost both times by at least 15 points.
BEWARE! This game is being played in St. Louis and the home field advantage goes to the Tigers. A lot of outlets have this game listed with Illinois as the home team but that is completely bogus and the place is going to be filled with Tigers fans. Just to let you all know a bit more about the Tigers, according to Phil Steele they have now won 5 straight season openers and they have won those games by an average of 40-16 which means they should have no problems taking care of business against Illinois by at least 20+ points. The winnable games for Illinois are going to start next week against a D-II team and the following weeks when they travel to Syracuse and Indiana. I think they have already chalked this game up as a loss and I think Missouri is going to show why they intend on sticking around the TOP 25 for the most part of this season. Tigers in a steam roll.
Trend of the Game: Missouri is 5-0 SU in their last five season openers winning by an average of 24.0 points per game.
Missouri 34, Illinois 14
Monday, September 3
Southern Methodist Mustangs +8 (5 Units)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have always had one of the most powerful offenses in college football and they have averaged more than 30 points per game for God knows how many seasons now. However they are coming off an 8-5 with a big win over Minnesota in the Insight Bowl and although they did play well in 2006, it was their lowest scoring output in a very long time and I don'tknow that they are going to be any better this year with only 5 starters back on offense. Sure it helps that Texas Tech is 11-0 SU against this Southern Methodist team the last 11 times they have played (dating back to 1989) winning every game by a margin of at least 27 points per game. Yeah thats pretty damn scary for anyone joining me on the SMU train because the odds are stacked against us but taking the Red Raiders is a bit too obvious here. QB Graham Harrell did a pretty damn good job in his first season as the starter and RB Shannon Woods is a Big 12 first teamer so we know that this team is loaded with weapons anyways. However, the top two receivers from 2006 are gone and replacing them could be a bit more complicated than people think. Despite allowing less than 30 points per game in each of the last two seasons, SMU is not strong on defense and they are probably going to get picked apart like a operating patient in this game. I know they allowed only 3.2 yards per carry last season but they have a weak defensive line this time around and Texas Tech will probably score at will in this game. However, the Tech offensive line needs a lot of re-working and this being the first game and this being a road game, it won't be as easy as it looks to just pound away on the ground and make guys miss in the air. Don't forget SMU have very good run defense last year and seeing how the TT offensive line not up to snuff, I think Harrell could be under pressure most of the game and that could cause a few mishaps here and there.
The Southern Methodist Mustangs have to be jacked up about this game. I mean they are coming off one of their best seasons in recent memory and head coach Phil Bennett has this team pointed in the right direction. The utlimate goal this season is going to be to get this team back into a Bowl Game by winning the Conference USA. It would be their first Bowl game since 1984 and the faithful fans (those won I guess don't like the Horns for some reason instead) and study body have deserved this as well. It has been ages since SMU was able to keep this kind of game close against Texas Tech but I think they can get the job done as they return 14 starters (8 on offense) and are up against one of the weakest Texas Tech defensive units in a very long time. QB Justin Willis cannot be understimated, like I think he will be by the Red Raiders in this game, because he passed for 2047 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2006 while throwing only 6 interceptions and looking damn good all season. Willis was a freshman last year and now he's back a year older with a bunch of games under his belt. Texas Tech has done a good job of fine tuning thier defense in recent year but its rellapse time for these guys as they return only 5 starters on defense and unlike last season, that spells big trouble. I say that because their linebacking unit is the worst in the Big 12, their special teams are horrendous and their defensive line is not hard to push over. That means I fully expect both Willis and DeMyron Martin to lead the way on the ground in this game as they both combined for 723 rushing yards last season on 224 rush attempts which is not too bad. So no matter how many points Texas Tech is able to score in this game, I think coach Bennett is more than ready to shoot things out in the season openers and make things interesting for both teams. The Mustangs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as the underdog. It's not like Justin Willis had any help from any other offensive position last season so with 8 starters back on offense again this year, I think his numbers will improve and this kid is going to raise some eyebrows in the very competitive Conference USA. Other than that all the tools are there for this team to make this game a good ole fashion Texas shootout and once the dust settles, I think a lot of people are going to have new found respect for the team that has had two straight winning ATS seasons.
I know the public is most definitely going to pound away on Texas Tech in this game but that could be a huge mistake. Yes they have some big time weapons both in the air and on the ground but they lack experience a lot more so than previous Texas Tech teams have lacked experience. Too many times last year we saw Texas Tech come out of the gates in slow fashion and too many times we saw them go down early against shitty teams and end up losing the game or keeping it too close. I think with so many guys to replace on offense and on defense, the Red Raiders are going to end up flustedred at times and I don't know that they can recover in time for some of their bigger games in upcoming weeks. So let's get this party started and lets all watch what this Justin Willis kid is all about. He has more weapons in the air than Graham Harrell does and when both offenses are unleashed, it will be tough for anyone to win by more than 10 points.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games as the favorite (3 seasons deep).
Texas Tech 34, SMU 33
RECAP
UL Monroe +3
Mississippi State +18.5
Syracuse +3.5
Michigan State -21.5
East Carolina +27.5
Nevada +21.5
Missouri -4.5
Georgia Tech +2
Southern Methodist +8
Good Luck to all!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. I decided before this season started that my ultimate goal would be profit and not showcasing. That is probably going to eliminate the possibility of me having 50 unit plays like last season (they are silly but fun) and I don't know that they go down very well in a serious community like this one. Anyways, best of luck to all this upcoming season, let's have some fun and keep sharing information.
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Thursday, August 30
UL Monroe Warhawks +3 (5 Units)
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane come into this season with only 10 returning starters although it's not the end of the world, they also have to break-in a brand new coach (many called for Todd Graham to win coach of the year in 2006 at Rice). After losing to Utah in the Armed Forces Bowl last year, they finished with a 7-6 record. However, with so many players gone and only 36 lettermen returning, it's going to take some time to get things going on both sides of the ball and working it out against the Warhawks could be bad news. Tulsa went only 6-5 ATS in 2006 which is nothing too special and although I know Graham is going to do a great job replacing Kragthorpe, but there is almost no chance that these guys can score the near 30 points a game they scored last year, having to learn a brand new system and all. Another big question mark tonight for Tulsa is the status of Oklahoma transfer RB Courtney Tennial who is said to be out with an Achilles problem. That would be a huge blow to the team because Tennial averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season and ran for 845 yards and 14 touchdowns. Regardless though, this is a deep backfield and the Golden Hurrican will get their fair share of yards in this one. ULM's biggest weakness is their secondary as they allowed quite a few yards last year. Defense is not going to win ULM games this season and we all know Tulsa is going to have an easy time moving the ball with the #1 QB in the CUSA (Paul Smith) at the helms. Turnovers were a problem last year and turnovers will probably be a problem again this year with the new head coach and the new system taking a while to get used to. The defense was good last year but it can't be as good this year. No chance. However, the reason I am not backing them is because they have too much youth on the offensive line and in the receiving corps and youth usually means a lot of mistakes in a new system. Mistakes will be costly tonight because I think both teams will trade touchdowns for the most part of the game.
The UL Monroe Warhawks have some pretty damn high expectations coming into this season as they were 4-8 last year but lost by 2 points against Kansas on the road and lost by two points against Kentucky on the road as double digit underdogs. Malone Stadium is by no means an intimidating place to play but the Warhawks have covered as home dogs in the past under Charlie Weatherbie (actually 3-3 ATS since he has been here with an 0-1 ATS mark last year). Now like I mentioned in the writeup for Tulsa, this team is not about to win anything on defense alone (they suck defensively) but their offense is loaded with weapons and I don't think Weatherbie is going to hold back tonight. If you had any concerns about turnovers with this ULM team, they were a nice +10 in turnover ratio last season (unlike most Sun Belt Conference teams) while Tulsa was a -5 in turnovers and they bring in a lot of young guys. With 11 returning starters on offense, I think ULM can do a lot more damage than Tulsa in this game as they run plays through RB Calvin Dawson. For those who don't know him he is a Senior RB who ran for 1210 yards, 11 TD's and 5.7 yards per carry last season which doesn't bode well for Tulsa's somewhat mediocre defensive line. Tulsa does have a good secondary but ULM has the #1 receiving corps in the Sun Belt and they have one of the best offensive lines in the conference which should give them time to let QB Kinsmon Lancaster operate with ease. I know these guys finished with a 4-8 record last year but let it be known that they lost 5 games by five points or less which means they could very easily have had a 9-3 or 8-4 kinda record and competed for the conference title. Beware of these guys they have a lot of players back. There will be no holding back tonight for Charlie Weatherbie and his guys and I expect them to win this shootout.
I don't know about you guys but this live dog is probably going to make a lot of noise tonight. These two teams met back in 1999 in Tulsa and let me tell that as +7.5 underdogs, the ULM Warhawks came in and made a name for themselves by winning the game 37-34. This is one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt Conference and although Tulsa is going to score their fair share of points as well, it will be UL Monroe that comes out on top and has the fans running all over the field in Malone Stadium.
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 0-12 SU in their last 12 road openers.
UL Monroe 35, Tulsa 32
Mississippi State Bulldogs +18.5 (3 Units)
The LSU Tigers are going to be on my betting list more times than not this season but with a monster game against America's Team Virginia Tech on the horizon in just over a week, you can't help but think this team is not going to take this game all that seriously. I know Les Miles talked about every game being just as important as the other because if you perform poorly against one underdog, you can easily drop in the rankings and never make it back to the top of the grid. Yeah he's right about that. However, a lot of people are not aware that the Tigers have brought in a new offensive coordinator to take care of business and although Gary Crowton did a marvelous job at Oregon last season, I just don't know that he will mesh with Senior QB Matt Flynn as well as Jimbo did with his two QB's for the last few years. Jamarcus Russell was king here at LSU and every play in the playbook was designed for him to gain 20-30 yards at a time. That would explain why LSU was able to blow out so many opponents and strike so fast. With Matt Flynn though you have to be cautious. He only has one start under his belt and that was a somewhat pressure-less start in the 2005 Peach Bowl. He attempted only 20 passes all of last season and averaged some 6.0 yards per pass attempt (Russell was in the upper 9.0 yards per pass attempt) so expect things to move a lot slower. Also keep in mind that LSU went 2-2 in SEC road games last season and that the key to this game for them will be to make Flynn and the offense comfortable with the new OC. Mississippi State's defense is weak and they allow yardage in chunks but that's not how the offense is built this time around for LSU so if the Bulldogs can make a few stops here and there in this game, they'll have a great chance of getting things done against an LSU team that comes into the season with a ton of pressure as the #2 team in the Country. Flynn's career completion percentage is 55% in three total starts which is not that bad but it ain't that good. Flynn has to be really careful in this one because the 55 000+ in attendance are going to make some noise and Derek Pegues is going to be roaming the field looking to pick some of Flynn's passes off. Pegues is one of the best DB's in the SEC and he might make a name for himself tonight.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into this Nationally Televised affaire with a lot of hope and pride that they can win this game. I have been talking about all week how four years ago, Sylvester Croom promised his new recruits that by the time they left Starkville, they would be competing for an SEC Title and they would be having the time of their lives. The latter might be true but I don't think Mississippi State is going to be up there in the end, I mean they are coming off back-to-back-to-back three win seasons. Regardless though, they showed serious signs of improvement last season by almost beating Mississippi on the road, by keeping Arkansas within the number at home, by beating Alabama on the road, by losing to Georgia by only 3 points on the road and by beating UAB as 10 point underdogs on the road. This is definitely a tougher challenge than any of those they faced last year but with 9 returning starters on offense, I have a feeling the Bulldogs can somehow garner at least 10-14 points on LSU in this game (based on crowd energy and motivation from Croom). Defensively is where they might have problems because they have only 5 returning starters from a team that allowed 25.8 points per game last season. Offensively everyone keeps talking about how Miss State has to run for at least 200 yards in this game if they want a shot at covering but I beg to differ. QB Michael Hennig played pretty damn well last season and I think he can get the offense going in this one. He averaged a whopping 16.2 yards per pass attempt last season, throwing 7 touchdowns and 9 interceptions but he does have a lot more game experience than Matt Flynn and there is virtually no pressure on this kid to get things done tonight. Why not air it out tonight? The Bulldogs have about the same level of talent/experience as the LSU wide receiving corps as they bring back five players who caught 10 or more passes (three who caught 20 or more) and have one of the better deep threats in this game in WR Tony Burks although he is bothered by a bad knee and might not play. Regardless, Starkville is going to be a happening place tonight and as long as the offense can score more than 7 points, they'll be just fine.
Most of you will say it doesn't make much sense to back this underdog seeing how LSU has won 7 straight against them (14 of the last 15, thanks Phil Steele for that) and have outscored them 250-43 in the last six meetings. Yes that looks pretty damn discouraging for the Bulldogs and their backers but don't lose hope before this one gets underway. Nobody really expects Mississippi State to win this game but covering the game is not impossible. Matt Flynn has done a great job as the backup the last who knows how many years but I just don't fully trust him to cover this large spread on opening night in only his second career start (first pressure cooker starts thats for sure). Get ready for a decent game tonight guys and don't be surprised if Mississippi State keeps this close with a few big plays. Cue the 'LSU SUCKS' threads.
Trend of the Game: LSU is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 SEC conference games.
LSU 28, Mississippi State 13
Friday, August 31
Syracuse Orangemen +3.5 (3 Units)
The Washington Huskies are going to be a much better team this season than the 5-7 Huskies we saw last season because this is Ty Willingham's third season here and third seasons are when head coaches start to make noise or progress with a program. However, I have to warn you right now, and I don't know why this would change, that since joining this team two season ago Willingham has won only three games on the road. As a matter of fact the Huskies are 4-17 away from home the last five seasons and they now have the pleasure of kicking off their season on the road versus a home team that no matter how shitty they are, have a bigger home field advantage than many other teams. The Huskies are going to start redshirted freshman QB Jake Locker tonight who is apparently already a superstar in Seattle but im not convinced that he can come out East and play the game of his life. I mean this is his very first career college football start and it comes the Carrier Dome which has seen the home underdog cover 9 of the last 14 games as exactly that, a home underdog. Locker is a dual threat QB who has the opportunity to do anything he wants tonight as long as he doesn't make mistakes. Syracuse's defense is borderling horrendous (dead last in the Big East in almost every category talent wise). Syracuse allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the ground in 2006 so I think we are going to see a lot of running by Locker in this game. The only issue is that Syracuse returns quite a few guys who can pick passes off (returning defensive players had 11 interceptions combined in 2006) and with the inexperience of the new QB, I think the Orangemen can force some turnovers in this game. Regardless of how their defense plays, I don't think Washington is going to be effective enough on offense to grab a comfortable lead and even at that, they could quite possibly be playing from behind most of this game.
The Syracuse Orangemen have been picked by many to finish dead last in the Big East (which is not saying much considering some of the teams at the bottom of this pile) but that doesn't mean it will necessiraly happen. I know they have the least amount of returning starters in the Big East with 12 guys back from last year and I know Greg Robinson's job is on the line if this team doesn't come out of the gates and win at least three of their first five games so expect them to be ready tonight. Syracuse has struggled badly in previous home openers (the last five years have been a disaster) but I do like the fact that PAC 10 schools have a lot of problems when they play in the Carrier Dome as the PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in Syracuse. I'm not looking at how the Orange defense is going to do in this game because the defesive side of things is going to be dictated by the offensive side of things and for some reason I think the Orange offense is going to surprised quite a few people in this game. QB Andrew Robinson is another first time starter (much like Loker) but he has attempted 8 passes and rushed for 45 on nine attempts. You had to be impressed by Robinson when he came in against Rutgers last season for the first time and led them on an 80 yard touchdown drive. The biggest weakness on the Washington defense (and there are many) is defintiely their secondary. That gets me excited because WR's Taj Smith and Mike Williams are both in the TOP 10 receivers for the Big East and both averaged more than 18.0 yards per catch last season. The Huskies are completely hopeless and undersized against both of these guys and I don't doubt for a minute that Syracuse can pound the ball deep or short up the middle and get some big yardage plays in this game. I know Robinson is not battle tested but he is lucky that another first time starter is on the other side of the ball and I actually think Robinson will be the better looking QB of the two in this game.
The bottom line here is that playing the Carrier Dome is tough. However, this is one of the most winnable games all year for Syracuse as they face a PAC 10 team coming from out West who are starting a young prodigy QB for the first time ever. Well the Orange have somewhat of a future star starting for them as well as he is actually a bit more seasoned (8 pass attemps) than the Washington quarterback who has never played a single down in college football. If you don't believe me that this place is tough to play in just look at Syracuse's 29-12 ATS record in their last 41 home games (over the last seven seasons) and that tells the story. Also keep in mind that Washington is one of the worst road teams in the entire country and I just don't understand why people think they will win when they have won only 4 of their last 21 road games.
Trend of the game: The PAC 10 is only 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played in the Carrier Dome.
Syracuse 31, Washington 16
Saturday, September 1
East Carolina Pirates +27.5 (5 Units)
You can call me a nut for going against America's Team (the Hokies) and you can bet your bottomr dollar the Pirates will probably be overwhelmed early in this game but that doesn't mean that with a spread so large, a team like the Pirates can't get the job done in the second half or possibly via the Moose job. To get it out of the way early, starting QB Rob Kass is out for the game after getting arrested for a DUI but people are making too big a deal out of this. The line has since moved 3 points since this was announced but from what I hear the QB position battle was really close anyways and all three QB's are game ready. Replacing him will be Patrick Pinkney, so we hear, which is both good and bad. It's bad because going to Blackburg without ever having played a college football down as a QB is not good news and good because I actually think he's better than Kass. What people don't understand is that Kass being out was not worthy of the line moving that many points because East Carolina was already anticipated to have the worst QB corps in the Conference USA this season. What they do have however is a very strong offensive line and a very experienced RB in Chris Johnson. But who the hell cares. Bud Foster's defense is probably going to maul these guys most of the afternoon as they return 8 starters on defense and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry anyways last season. The key for East Carolina is going to be their ability to make plays on defense which I think they can do in this game. So with all eyes on Pinkney and his backup Brett Clay, neither of who have ever played a down in college football, I think the task is going to be tough but I do like teams with good defense to cover spreads and I do think that the Pirates defense is up to snuff to keep this one withing the number.
The Virginia Tech Hokies have the entire Nation pulling for them this season and the really deserve it after going through what they did last spring. The tragedy touched everyone in this nation and they even have the College GameDay crew coming out to Blacksburtg for the first week of the season. So with all these expectations and with all the emotions and energy of the crowd, students, players and everyone else, how is Virginia Tech going to come out and play? The last three years Virginia Tech has won their home openers by a combined score of 146-0 but that doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Frank Beamer has faced this East Carolina team enough times in his career at Virginia Tech to know what they are capable of. Although the Hokies have won the last five games against the Pirates, the average margin of victory is only 20.0 points per game which is a full 7.5 points less than the posted spread for this game. The Hokies have one of the top defenses in the Nation but what I really question is their offense. Sean Glennon makes a lot of good plays but for every good play he makes, he goes out and makes a stupid one too and the proof of that was his 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions thrown last year. Against about any other team I think he could have a good opening game but something tells me he is coming out of the gates a little too excited for this one. Glennon is proably going to rely heavily (like he did last year) on the running game of Brandon Ore who rushed for 1137 yards last season and 16 touchdowns for 4.7 yards per carry. Well since the arrival of Skip Holtz in Greenvile, the East Carolina Pirates have trimmed their points per game allowed by 19.1 points per game and he has 8 starters back on defense who can make some big plays. The Pirates have an outstanding defensive line who can control Ore and they have some guys who can plays on the defensive side of things. Too many times last year Sean Glennon came out of the gates working the motions and if he does that here or if he gets too excited about making this emotional first start since the disaster, I think he gives the cover away.
It has been more than three years since a team has come to Virginia Tech for their home opener and scored some points against them. The Hokies have shutout their last three home opening opponents and I usually wouldn't put it past them to do it again. However, East Carolina is a team that means business coming off that Bowl appearance last year and although Skip Holtz doesn't seem too confident in these guys and although their starting QB is out, this is a great opportunity for them to let the Nation know that they are alive and kicking. The hype and excitement is going to be huge for this game but I think that could ultimately harm the Hokies and force them into a few things they wouldn't usually do on the field. I'll take the points in this one.
Trend of the Game: East Carolina is 9-0 ATS in September games since the arrival of head coach Skip Holtz.
Virginia Tech 31, East Carolina 9
Michigan State Spartans -21.5 (2 Units)
The Alabama-Birmingham Blazers are coming off a 3-9 season that saw them reach futile numbers in several offensive and defensive categories. Since starting football operations back in 1991, UAB has managed to win only once when playing their first road game of the season so you can forget about any kinds of upsets happening in this bad boy. We are talking about a team that could quite possibly win only one or two games this season seeing how they were horrendous in 2006 while returning 12 starters on both sides of the ball so how the hell are they gonna manage now that they are returning only 8 total combined starters on both sides of the ball? They aren't. Neil Callaway takes over this team, making his first ever college football start as a head coach so if that doesn't confuse a team, I don't know what will. With Florida State waiting in the horizon next week, I don't know that this football program is even going to care to show up for games until it really matters for them on September 15 when they get to face Alcorn State in their home opener. The Blazers are renovating their entire offense and moving into a pro-style attack even though they are missing several key piece of the puzzle to pull the move off and that can only spell trouble. Michigan State, despite sucking ass on defense last year, is returning 6 starters on the defensive side of things and no matter how poorly they once again end up playing (allowing chunks of yardage at a time), there isn't antything UAB can really do in this game that will allow them to score more than 7-10 points. No chance in hell with everyone on the offense still learning and with the new coach trying to figure out what it takes to be a head coach or a coach at all at this level. I don't mean to make fun of teams because it usually comes back to bite me in the ass but too many people are betting on UAB based on how poorly MSU has played the last few seasons and that is a big mistake because UAB was only 4-8 ATS last season and this is a great chance for some top notch conference teams to unload on them this early on in the season when they still look clueless. No point showing up for this disaster.
The Michigan State Spartans are ready to begin the Mark Dantonio era after he came swooping over here all the way from Cincinnati. One thing we already know about Dantonio from his days back at Ohio State is that he likes to win, he likes to make things simple and he doesn't back down from anybody. Some of you will probably be scared away from betting such a large spread on the Spartans opening home game because of their 10 point win last season as -29 point underdogs against Idaho and because of their failure to cover the double digigt spread against Central Michigan in the home opener the year before. Well that makes a lot of sense but when a new coaching staff with this much experience steps into a big program, they usually want to make a statement and they usually want to show the hometown fans that the signing was worthy and that this is a season to look forward to. I am kind of excited to see QB Brian Hoyer take over for the departed Drew Stanton because this Michigan State team just can't get any worse than the 4-8 they were last year and they can only improve on the 3-8-1 ATS mark they were labeled with in 2006. Hoyer has a very strong arm and has enough experience to lead this team to big things. He has appeared in 13 games over the last two years passing for 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 1000+ yards which is not bad for a guy learning the ropes. Javon Ringer only managed 86 rush attempts last season but he rushed for 497 yards in those attempts for 1 touchdowns and 5.8 yards per carry. Now that things are back to normal, I think he is going to be the star on this team against the weakest defense in the Conference USA. UAB stands no chance of stopping anyone on the ground in this game and things are going to get pretty damn ugly before halftime, I can guarantee you that. UAB have only 4 starters back on defense but they are not talented starters and after allowing 4.3 yards per carry last season with 7 starters back on defense, this team is in huge trouble. Michigan State doesn't have to do much in this game to win by at least 30 and I think this is going to get people in East Lansing pretty damn excited about the season.
This is almost not about Michigan State covering and winning the game, it's more about fading those clowns making the trip from Birgmingham and going against what could be one of the weakest teams in Division 1-A football this season. Michigan State is coming off some horrendous football seasons and although they won't turn things around completely, a new head coach (and a proven one at that) is exactly what they need around here and I think they are going to surprise more than just a few people this season. Hoyer and Ringer are going to absolutely trash this UAB defense that has only 4 starters back and with TJ Williams announcing that he is ready to go for this game, I don't know how UAB plans on keeping the Spartans under 50 points scored. This is gonna get nasty guys and I hope for once we can all applaud a Michigan State win and cover.
Trend of the Game: Michigan State is 8-0 SU in their last eight home openers winning by an average of 18.0 points per game.
Michigan State 48, Alabama-Birmingham 3
Nevada Wolfpack +21.5 (5 Units)
The Nevada Wolfpack have been one of the best money making options over the last few seasons as they have covered 17 of their last 22 games on the ATS front and that makes them an attracting wager here. However, all those games were with senior and now departed QB Jeff Rowe. I read somewhere that although one of Chris Ault's most inexperienced teams ever with only 12 returning starters this season, Ault is the most impressed by the willingness to succeed some of these guys are showing. That stems from the 'Nevada Run' which is a gruelling run that every player has to participate in before the season starts and for the very first time Chris Ault's 23 years as the head coach of this team, every single player finished under the set time. That's dedication and I hope these guys come out showing that type of dedication in this game. Expect both QB's Nick Graziano and Colin Kaepernick to see some time in this game. They are both fresh out of the gates but can both sling the ball downfield or run with it just as well. Nebraska's defensive line is one of the weakest in the Big 12 so I expect the Wolpack to slow this game down early, even if they go down by a touchdown or two, in hopes of letting their guys get comfortable with the system and letting their young QB work his thing out. RB's Luke Lippincott and Brandon Fagger are both back this season and they both averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season and scored 12 combined touchdowns in only 149 combined carries. With the threat of their QB's running and the threat of two good RB's, I think Nevada can do enough in this game to keep it close for the most part and maybe sneak in some scores at the end for the cover. This is just way too many points to pass up on for a team that has covered so many games over the last few years and there is no chance that I am missing out on this party. Nevada does have a shaddy history of opening road games having lost 11 straight road openers by 23.0 points per game but I think this team can get the job done.
The Nebraska Cornuskers and namely some of their players are going to be under an immense amount of pressure to blow this Nevada team out of the water. They had a similar WAC Conference opponent in Louisiana Tech last season and they killed them 49-10 to open the season. However, make no mistake about it, Louisiana Tech is not a well coached team while Nevada has one of the best coaches in the WAC Conference and good coaches know what to do to keep games from turning into blowouts like the game did last year. This is the big debut of Sam Keller, the disgruntled Arizona State transfer who sat out last year, and with his debut comes a ton of pressure on him to get things done. It has been since 2005 that Keller has stepped on any football field and made any kind of pass attempt and he could be rusty as hell coming out of the gates here. Nevada's defense is a lot better than people give them credit for as they allowed only 19.2 points per game in 2006 and have the pleasure of returning 7 starers from that defense. In his seven Arizona State starts, Keller did complete only 59% of his passes and he did throw 9 interceptions to go along with his 20 touchdown passes. Keller has several options on offense and I think eventually things are going to start happening but with the Wake Forest away game in the horizon, it is very possible that Nebraska be looking ahead and very possible that they somewhat struggle against what I called an underrated defense. The Cornuskers return only 11 starters on both sides of the ball combined and that's a big loss for them compared to the 15 they returned last year. Under Bill Callahan the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS as a home favorite when returning less than 15 starters from the year before and like I said before, the number is just way too high for a rusty quarterback who has not played in two years and who is up against a very pesky team with a coach of 23 years at the helsm.
This is an interesting game. The public will surely pound away on Nebraska thinking that Sam Keller is the next Zac Taylor but that might not be the case until a few games later in the season. This is by far the easiest game for Nebraska on their early schedule and that has me excited because they may very well try to keep things as simple as possible for Keller which means that the pace of this game is going to be a lot slower than most blowouts accept. Nevada does have the tools to keep things on the ground against a weak Nebraska defensive line and that alone may be enough to slow this game down to the point where Nevada can score a few points early and keep the cover in check. This is the very first meeting between these two teams and the one thing I have learned the last few years is that Nevada cannot be underestimated.
Trend of the Game: Nevada is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 overall games.
Nebraska 34, Nevada 20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +2 (3 Units)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets come into South Bend off a 9-5 season but they come in with a bit of bad news and whole lot of good news. The bit of bad news is that All-American wide receiver Calvin Johnson is gone and now playing in the NFL and the great news is that last year's QB Reggie Ball has graduated and there is no chance of him coming into this game and throwing some of his infamous INT's or getting sacked for -25 yards. The Yellow Jackets are used to the road underdog role in games like this and it does not bother them as they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the road underdog which goes back a full three seasons so don't be shocked when they come out and win this game straight up. Georgia Tech is one of the better teams to bet on when it comes to banking on a team to open well on the road. They are 3-0 in their last three road opening games winning all three as underdogs against ranked teams. It doesn't get more impressive than that as they beat the #20 ranked Clemson in 2004, the #16 ranked Auburn in 2005 and the #21 ranked Virginia Tech in 2006...impressive shit guys. You can forget about the Yellow Jackets taking this game to the air. I think they are going to run things through RB Tashard Choice who was just oustanding last year with his 1473 yards rushing for 12 TD's and a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. The Notre Dame defense is working on new schemes and the defense returns only 5 starters which is a disaster. Choice should have no problems steam rolling a very inexperienced defensive line and that ultimately will allow the young GTech offense to get going with the air game when they choose to. With 9 starters back on defense last year, Notre Dame allowed 23.6 points per game and did a pretty damn good job. However with only 5 starters back I think they are going to struggle somewhat and Georgia Tech is going to make them pay for their inexperience.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this season with a lot lower expectations than they did in 2006 because almost their entire offense is gone and they return only four players on that side of the ball. You have to love the fact that Notre Dame is an impressivw 17-3 in their last 20 home games and the fact that Charlie Weiss is one of the best coaches out there. However, that does not mean they are going to win this game. I think Notre Dame can keep this game close early on and probably build on the excitement of opening weekend and the excitement of the crowd but it won't take long for the new QB, whoever the hell he is since Charlie won't let us in on the little secret but frankly I don't care, to start having problems and making mistakes. So when you have a corps of young QB's all playing for one spot on the roster, you are surely going to have guys making mistakes. You have to consider that the offense has to somewhat rebuild not that the particular style of play Brady Quinn brought is gone and that could also cause problems. No matter which way you look at it, things don't look too good for the Irishmen and I say that because Georgia Tech has one of the best defensive lines in the ACC and they can stuff the run. If the Irish take this game to the air, the young QB's are probably going to take baby steps when it comes to moving the ball and that won't be enough to keep things going against a very good Yellow Jackets team that is returning 8 starters on defense. Jon Tenuta (the GT defensive coordinator) has led one of the most impressive and most underrated defenses in the country in two of the last three seasons. Without Quinn and some other offensive weapons like Darius Walker, the Fighting Irish are in for a long stretch of games and I don't see this team getting anywhere close to what they did last year. Enjoy the game Irish fans because it may be the closes you get to covering in a very long time.
RUUDY RUUDY RUUDY RUUDY. Yeah we all watched the movie but that son of a gun is nowhere in sight in this game and there ain't no pretty story about to happen right here. This game most definitely has BCS implications for both teams because the winner is sitll alive for a monster season while the loser is most likely not going to have much of a chance to get to the BCS games at the end of the year. Notre Dame's offense just lacks too much experience to even have a shot agianst this Georgia Tech defense and even if the Yellow Jackets struggle to score points, I don't think the Irish are going to fair much better. Defenses are usually ahead of offenses at this time of the year and that bodes very well for Georgia Tech. I'll take the underdogs in this one.
Trend of the Game: Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus INDEPENDENT teams.
Georgia Tech 24, Notre Dame 19
Missouri Tigers -4.5 (5 Units)
The Missouri Tigers come into this season with some pretty damn high expectations and it all starts with game #1. They are coming off an impressive 8-5 campaign after losing to Oregon State in stunning fashion in the Sun Bowl late last year but that Bowl Game loss and the way it happened has left them hungry for more this season and I think they come out this week and make quite the statement in their opener. The Tigers have a whopping number of players back on offense this year as they return 9 starters for Gary Pinkel who is back here for his 7th season as the head coach. I really like the fact that there is no look-ahead game anywhere in sight for this team so they can concentrate on one game at a time and concentrate on running up the score in all their games. With guys like QB Chase Daniel (3527 yards passing, 28 TD's and 10 interceptions in 2006) and WR William Franklin (48 catches for 829 yards and 6 TD's in 2006) still on this team, I think the books have made a big mistake setting the line so low and I say that because sure RB Tony Temple is going to miss the game and his 1063 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns are going to be missed but this team is loaded with talent and they can easily replace him seeing how they have a top tier offensive line. The Tigers up aganist an Illinois defense that allowed a crazy amount of points per game since Zook's arrival and even though they do bring 9 starters back to this team, they did the same last year and still allowed 26.8 points per game. I am a big fan of Chase Daniel's and I think he is going to have an easy time picking apart this up-and-coming Illinois secondary in the opening game. It might take time but when the train gets rolling, it will probably get a bit out of control and we are going to see some good things from the Tigers. Im telling you they are still pissed at that loss in the Bowl Game.
The Illinois Fighting Illini have to open the season in a very familiar spot. Out of their last 8 season opening games, two of them were played in St. Louis and both of them were losses. What makes this even funnier is that Illiniois is 6-2 in their last 8 season openers with the two games here being the only two losses. So with such a low spread and with some of the games not being so close, I really like Missouri to give the Illini a season opening ass whooping. To win on the road and to win season opening games you have to have some good special teams and the Fighting Illini don't have that. I know Juice Williams is something special and I actually fear betting against at home this season when he is the underdog but Juice is still young and he still has a lot to learn to be able to win games like this one in hostile environments. Don't forget that Williams completed only 39.5% of his passes last season for 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions which could become a huge problem in this game even though Missouri returns only 5 starters on defense. Regardless of how many guys are back though, this is the same defense that held opponents to 19.5 points per game in 2006 and 19.5 points per game in 2004. The schemes are the same and the staff is the same so expect the younger guys to learn fast and to adjust enough to stuff this Illini attack. I mean seeing how they are weakest in the secondary and seeing how Juice Williams can't even complete more than 39.5% of his passes, I just don't see how Illinois is a threat in this game. Juice Williams can run all he wants but the bottom line is that this is an experienced Missouri defensive line he is facing and like he did so many times last season, I think mistakes are going to be the name of the game here. In his two road opening games as head coach of Illinois, Ron Zook has lost both times by at least 15 points.
BEWARE! This game is being played in St. Louis and the home field advantage goes to the Tigers. A lot of outlets have this game listed with Illinois as the home team but that is completely bogus and the place is going to be filled with Tigers fans. Just to let you all know a bit more about the Tigers, according to Phil Steele they have now won 5 straight season openers and they have won those games by an average of 40-16 which means they should have no problems taking care of business against Illinois by at least 20+ points. The winnable games for Illinois are going to start next week against a D-II team and the following weeks when they travel to Syracuse and Indiana. I think they have already chalked this game up as a loss and I think Missouri is going to show why they intend on sticking around the TOP 25 for the most part of this season. Tigers in a steam roll.
Trend of the Game: Missouri is 5-0 SU in their last five season openers winning by an average of 24.0 points per game.
Missouri 34, Illinois 14
Monday, September 3
Southern Methodist Mustangs +8 (5 Units)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have always had one of the most powerful offenses in college football and they have averaged more than 30 points per game for God knows how many seasons now. However they are coming off an 8-5 with a big win over Minnesota in the Insight Bowl and although they did play well in 2006, it was their lowest scoring output in a very long time and I don'tknow that they are going to be any better this year with only 5 starters back on offense. Sure it helps that Texas Tech is 11-0 SU against this Southern Methodist team the last 11 times they have played (dating back to 1989) winning every game by a margin of at least 27 points per game. Yeah thats pretty damn scary for anyone joining me on the SMU train because the odds are stacked against us but taking the Red Raiders is a bit too obvious here. QB Graham Harrell did a pretty damn good job in his first season as the starter and RB Shannon Woods is a Big 12 first teamer so we know that this team is loaded with weapons anyways. However, the top two receivers from 2006 are gone and replacing them could be a bit more complicated than people think. Despite allowing less than 30 points per game in each of the last two seasons, SMU is not strong on defense and they are probably going to get picked apart like a operating patient in this game. I know they allowed only 3.2 yards per carry last season but they have a weak defensive line this time around and Texas Tech will probably score at will in this game. However, the Tech offensive line needs a lot of re-working and this being the first game and this being a road game, it won't be as easy as it looks to just pound away on the ground and make guys miss in the air. Don't forget SMU have very good run defense last year and seeing how the TT offensive line not up to snuff, I think Harrell could be under pressure most of the game and that could cause a few mishaps here and there.
The Southern Methodist Mustangs have to be jacked up about this game. I mean they are coming off one of their best seasons in recent memory and head coach Phil Bennett has this team pointed in the right direction. The utlimate goal this season is going to be to get this team back into a Bowl Game by winning the Conference USA. It would be their first Bowl game since 1984 and the faithful fans (those won I guess don't like the Horns for some reason instead) and study body have deserved this as well. It has been ages since SMU was able to keep this kind of game close against Texas Tech but I think they can get the job done as they return 14 starters (8 on offense) and are up against one of the weakest Texas Tech defensive units in a very long time. QB Justin Willis cannot be understimated, like I think he will be by the Red Raiders in this game, because he passed for 2047 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2006 while throwing only 6 interceptions and looking damn good all season. Willis was a freshman last year and now he's back a year older with a bunch of games under his belt. Texas Tech has done a good job of fine tuning thier defense in recent year but its rellapse time for these guys as they return only 5 starters on defense and unlike last season, that spells big trouble. I say that because their linebacking unit is the worst in the Big 12, their special teams are horrendous and their defensive line is not hard to push over. That means I fully expect both Willis and DeMyron Martin to lead the way on the ground in this game as they both combined for 723 rushing yards last season on 224 rush attempts which is not too bad. So no matter how many points Texas Tech is able to score in this game, I think coach Bennett is more than ready to shoot things out in the season openers and make things interesting for both teams. The Mustangs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as the underdog. It's not like Justin Willis had any help from any other offensive position last season so with 8 starters back on offense again this year, I think his numbers will improve and this kid is going to raise some eyebrows in the very competitive Conference USA. Other than that all the tools are there for this team to make this game a good ole fashion Texas shootout and once the dust settles, I think a lot of people are going to have new found respect for the team that has had two straight winning ATS seasons.
I know the public is most definitely going to pound away on Texas Tech in this game but that could be a huge mistake. Yes they have some big time weapons both in the air and on the ground but they lack experience a lot more so than previous Texas Tech teams have lacked experience. Too many times last year we saw Texas Tech come out of the gates in slow fashion and too many times we saw them go down early against shitty teams and end up losing the game or keeping it too close. I think with so many guys to replace on offense and on defense, the Red Raiders are going to end up flustedred at times and I don't know that they can recover in time for some of their bigger games in upcoming weeks. So let's get this party started and lets all watch what this Justin Willis kid is all about. He has more weapons in the air than Graham Harrell does and when both offenses are unleashed, it will be tough for anyone to win by more than 10 points.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games as the favorite (3 seasons deep).
Texas Tech 34, SMU 33
RECAP
UL Monroe +3
Mississippi State +18.5
Syracuse +3.5
Michigan State -21.5
East Carolina +27.5
Nevada +21.5
Missouri -4.5
Georgia Tech +2
Southern Methodist +8
Good Luck to all!
