Minnesota Twins Preview

[Mr Baseball]

Time to move on to one of the great overachieving teams in the last decade, the Twins of Minnesota

Who's In: RHP R.A. Dickey, OF Luis Matos, 3B Joe Crede

Who's Out: SS Adam Everett, LHP Dennys Reyes, LHP Eddie Guardado.

Offseason Summary:

What offseason. Unlike last season when the Twinkies waved goodbye to stars Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins had a quiet offseason. They very recently signed Joe Crede to fill-in a big platoon hole at 3B. Rumors also have the Twins picking up Juan Cruz to fill out a weak middle relief group. The Twins decided not to tinker with the team that tied them for an AL Central win last year, and hope their improving rotation will carry them into the playoffs.

Bettor's Edge: The Twinkies continue to get good value every year because they are a small market team without the big star power. But every year they prove the experts wrong and take their place near the top of the AL Central with a low payroll. This year will be a very interesting ones for the Twinkies. They will have some breakout potential in Kubel, Young, and Lariano. However, they will still be relying on a rotation made up of mostly strike throwers and is anchored by the young Lariano. They have a great setup and knock em down lineup with speed at the top and good power/contact in the middle. But watch out for that bullpen, the loss of Nechek will loom larger than most think. Be sure to check bullpen availability before you bet the Twinkies this year.

Fade Situation:

Long road trips: It's no secret that the Twinkies have a huge home field advantage. But with a young rotation and thin middle-relief, the time to fade the Twinkies will be on the back end of grueling road trips.

Play Situation:

Home division games. The Twinks play their best at home and when it counts the most. They love playing under the dome and finished 13 games over .500 in an evenly matched division last year.

Projected Lineup:

Gomez (CF)
Casilla (2B)
Mauer (C)
Morneau (1B)
Cuddyer (RF)
Young (LF)
Crede (3B)
Kubel (DH)
Punto (SS)

Projected Rotation:

Lariano (Left)
Baker (Right)
Slowey (Right)
Blackburn (Right)
Bonsor (Right)

Projected Finish:

84-76 3rd 2nd AL Central, +$250 Money, O/U 88-74. I really like the Twins lineup this year, they have all the tools and will carry them to some overs. They still have a rotation that needs to prove themselves, headed by Lariano's first season as the anchor. Don't be suprised if the Twins take the division, but they could finish anywhere in the Central

 

[RetroVK]

The anti-indians.

 

[Blue_Chip]

go twinkies!!! thx for write up

 

[SportsNut]

Nice post bro. Short and sweet . When I started to read it I smirked when you said what offseason ? Outside of the Yanks doesnt feel like many had an actual offseason and once they did their thing it was silence the rest of the winter in the FA market .

Most interested in minor changes myself in the offseasons not just this season but in the last few for each team .

Minnesota could be an interesting OVER team or OVER RHE Prop team . The lineup is probably going to continue to get better , the SP is very hittable as you said , the bullpen especially middle relief a long staple might not be so dominant which is they interesting part for me...:cheers:

 

[tunasunday]

Two things to add:

Denard Span insertion into the lineup sparked the offense last year and I think Gardenhire will get him in the lineup somehow against RHP. From everything I read it seems like Gardenhire is less than pleased with Delmon Young.

I think Perkins will be in the rotation over Boof, but if Bosner takes the hill, fade away.

I appreciate your write-ups Mr. Baseball. Can't wait for the season to start.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Bonser likely out for the season -- partial tears in labrum and rotator cuff on throwing arm

 

[hile75]

twins have another 2-3 arms they can bring up right now, losing bonser wont hurt too bad. love this team this year

 

[orangemonk]

if the twins still had garza instead of young.. yikes

 

[Blue_Chip]

I think losing Bonser is a good thing. Minny's got young talent waiting to explode onto the scene, I agree w/ hile.

Why this is my team when I live across the country yet counselor lives right there and hates them, I'll never know.

 

[RetroVK]

I think losing Bonser is a good thing. Minny's got young talent waiting to explode onto the scene, I agree w/ hile.

Why this is my team when I live across the country yet counselor lives right there and hates them, I'll never know.

i agree with you and hile too ... and i could never get bonser to do what i wanted anyway so i am happy to see him go.

bet an over and he was unhittable. bet an under and he gets lit up like a xmas tree on viagra. bet on twins he sucks , bet on opponent he is awesome ... him not being there is going to save me a fortune.

but back on point , i dont think its a major loss UNLESS they run into depth issues with more injuries.

 

[RetroVK]

feel bad now .. i dont wish injury on anyone.

 

[Terpman92]

Thanks for the info bro! Yup, those Twins love the dome...amazing

 

[frankiegotti]

twins have another 2-3 arms they can bring up right now, losing bonser wont hurt too bad. love this team this year

Hile, thanks for the info, by chance could you mention who those 2 or 3 pitchers are?

By the way are you doing your own mini-write up on what to expect this year from teams this year that will do well and team that will not do well.

Thanks in advance. :shake:

 

[Vikingsguy]

Personally, I think the 2009 Twins are bound for regression. Not sure if anyone has looked at or read Baseball Prospectus 2009, but those guys seem to formulate that the Twins 2008 season was almost solely predicated on luck. Statistically speaking, Baker pitched way above his peripherals. I think they are going to have issues while Mauer is out, and how healthy he'll be all season will be an issue. Sure he's a great hitter, but he's also the glue that gets these young arms through games. Redmond cannot catch 130+ games, and the rumor mill around Mauer is he may be the future DH of this team.

In addition to the starting pitching, I'm not sure what to expect from the bullpen. Sure Nathan is rock solid, but getting to him with Crain and Mijares might be problematic. Guerrier is NOT an 8th inning guy. He doesn't possess that kind of "stuff" and relying on the oft-injured Crain will make or break this pen...

I'm not going to wary too much from the prevalent projections out there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see anything between 70-90 wins from this team at either end of the spectrum, if for no other reason than noone is going to run away with the AL Central...