Thoughts since I'm a avid boxing fan...
Mayweather IS one of the best fighters to come along in the past decade. He is pound-for-pound probably one of the best the last 50 years.
However, I believe boxing and good fights are all about styles. Some fights are better simply because the styles mesh so well. This also means some fighters can have another fighters number based just on their style doesn't fit the others defense.
Mayweather has a near flawless defense and generally does just enough to win a fight. He doesn't care about making it look good, he just cares about winning. When you throw 30 - 40 punches a round you doing "just enough" to win rounds.
I believe the crowds influence judges more than we think. This crowd at MGM will be pro Hatton and will have the normal chanting and bands playing, which could steal him some of the closer rounds.
Hatton is going to keep coming at Floyd and in typical fashion bang away at the body. Hatton's defense is going to have to be ready for Floyd's fists on the counter. Hatton also swells up because he doesn't much care if he gets tagged, which concerns me a great deal. What counter puncher doesn't love someone who continually keeps coming at them?
However, Floyd hasn't been in the ring with someone as strong on the inside as Hatton. If Floyd isn't going to put together better combinations than he did against ODLH, Hatton has an outstanding chance to win this late.
Mayweather is coming off a dancing with the stars appearance and knows the ODLH fight did not make fans happy. He may take some chances in this fight to try and increase his appeal, but if he stands in the middle he will lose.
Hatton on the other hand has nothing to lose because everyone in the US thinks he's going to lose anyway. His fans in Europe will love him regardless and this is his biggest fight of his career. You know he'll be going balls out and/or go out swinging.
I don't believe Floyd will be able to KO Hatton. Hatton however could KO Floyd. The only way this gets stopped in Floyd's favor is if there's a cut or Hatton swells so much he can't see.
BUT, what I like about this is if Floyd is going to only throw his typical 30 - 40 punches per round, Hatton may be able to simply out-point Floyd with a steady assult if he can throw 60 - 70 punches per round. Obviously they have to be clean shots, but if Hatton can land shots, he could win just because of his output.
27% of 40 punches is 11 per round. Hatton only needs to connect on 20% of 60 punches (13) to technically out-point him. He landed 32% against Tszyu and avered 65 punches per round! It's obviously not that exact of a science and I believe boxing is slightly more legit than the WWE, but if Hatton has one of those 90 punch rounds he can do over the first 3 rounds, he could have a distinct advantage early and I don't believe Floyd fights that well from behind or when his punches thrown stat goes up.
I already hammered Hatton at +280 because of my believe that he will simply out land Mayweather.
