Marsski's Buckeye preview and week 1

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Hey guys. Here's my Buckeye breakdown:

JT Barrett is back for his 9th year as QB. I personally think JT is a gamer (see @ Penn State ‘14, @ Wisconsin, Michigan LY) , and I don't blame him as much as some other Buckeye fans for the Clemson debacle. I do really place it on the coaching staff and Urban tightened it up by letting Warriner and Beck go and bringing in IU Coach Kevin Wilson and a new QB coach Ryan Day (Chip Kelly asst with Eagles). It sounds like they have been focusing JT on throwing guys open and not waiting for a perfect window to let the ball go, which admittedly has been one of his major issues at QB.
I think he’s going to have a great year. He just wins.


The OL is a tad reshuffled (Price moves to center from guard) but has four starters back (Price, Prince, Jordan, Jones) and should be fine as the weakest link in the bunch-- RT Isiah Prince--has plenty of guys pushing for his spot. If the Buckeyes have a weak spot this year it is the right side of the line with a new starter at guard and Prince at tackle. This is probably my biggest concern on the whole team, and the fact we are counting on Prince makes me nervous. Dude was a traffic cone last year.

At the skill positions, the Buckeyes look loaded at running back with Weber back after a 1,000 yard season as the obvious starter. Freshman JK Dobbins is the hot running back getting hyped right now as the speed rusher, but I think Demario McCall will fill the role at least early in the year as he’s more well-versed in picking up blitzes. Both are guys who run mid 4.4s so no problem in replacing Curtis Samuel in my view. Dobbins was voted best athlete at the Nike camp so I’m sure he’s someone who will contribute. I’m just not sure how soon.

WR was ugly last year for Ohio State after Noah Brown who left early for the NFL. The amount of dropped balls was the highest I can recall in recent memory for a Buckeye team. I wanted to strangle Parris Campbell. I think we are due to see a Terry Glennesque breakout year here from someone in the WR bunch and I kind of like sophomore Binjimin Victor, a 6’4 kid to be that guy. He was suddenly seeing the field in the bowl game after not playing all year so maybe he figured it out late. Johnnie Dixon is also one to watch as he had 2TDs in the spring game and is finally healthy after being plagued by knee injuries.

Nonetheless, they have a TE coming back who was coming on late in the year in Marcus Baugh and he’s a nice security blanket for JT on the inevitable checkdowns.


On defense, we have seven starters returning. Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis will both be beasts on the DL with everyone back. Is sophomore Nick Bosa ready to be as good as his big brother?

Our biggest defensive loss is Raekwon McMillian at middle LB who had more than 100 tackles last year. But Jerome Baker our #2 tackler is back and we get Worley and Booker back as well. Solid.

Our defensive backfield looks depleted on paper after losing three #1 picks to the NFL Draft, but I’m honestly not worried in the least about this position. We have starting safety Webb back, corner Denzel Ward who led the team in passes defended, Bama transfer CB Kendall Sheffield, and last year’s nickel back Arnette. I really don’t see too many weaknesses on this defense although I do think replacing Raekwon will be tough.

Special teams: We probably have a new punter this year but he averaged 47 yards a kick in the Army All American game so not too worried. Kicker could be Neurnburger who is 16/24 lifetime.

I haven't seen too much discussion of OSU/Indiana a week from Thursday so let me throw my two cents in.

Ohio State has been pretty dominant against lower echelon Big Ten teams but has failed to cover the number against Indiana in the past FIVE years. Yet, they have won the last 22 vs. the Hoosiers straight up. So we know who will win, but who will cover?

Indiana is hyping up this game as the biggest in program history and some are seeing this as a dogfight. I can’t see it. I don't think you can really make the case for anything here other than laying the points.

First of all, we have IU’s coach Kevin Wilson to direct our offense this year. Beyond the new schemes and pressure he will put on defenses, he has intimate knowledge of IU’s team. I’d be surprised if he couldn’t dice up the Hoosiers who gave up 470 yards to Utah in the bowl game. Last year, we basically ran it down their throats and played ball control in a 38-17 game that wasn't that close.

Secondly, we are coming off a nationally televised, humiliating shutout. I think these guys might be ready to show the nation that they can play, and they can get an average Big Ten defense to do it against.

Additionally, if you think this crowd is going to be pumped, guess again. It will be nearly half Buckeyes fans just like it is every time they play in Bloomington. Listen for the O-H-I-O chant ringing out.

I don’t really like the scheduling spot for Ohio State with Oklahoma waiting in the wings, but I think its hard to come out flat for a season opener especially after a humiliating loss.

I think Ohio State will take Indiana to the woodshed here.

I look for something like 42-10. I laid the 20 points for a 2 unit play as I didn't want to see it rise above 3TDs.

Pick: OSU -20 (-105) to win 2 units

I'll put the rest of my week one picks in this thread later. And I'll give y'all some MAC thoughts as well.


August 26th
Hawaii -1 to win 1 unit
Col St -3.5 to win 1 unit (-115)

Week One Card:

Thursday
Ohio State -20 to win 2 units (-105)

Friday
BC -2.5 to win 1.5 units (-117)

Sat
Akron +33 to win 1 unit (-120)
TT: Penn State UN 48 to win 1 unit (-115)
Youngstown St. +15 to win half unit
Marshall +1.5 to win 1 unit
Michigan/Florida under 48 to win 1 unit
TT: Nebraska OV 31 to win 1 unit (-120)
Bama -7 to win 1 unit
Boise St -12.5 to win 1 unit (-108)
USC -27 to win 1.5 units
M Tenn St +4 to win 1 unit
M Tenn St ML +140 half unit to win .7

ML parlays:
Kershaw LAD/Huskers/Bama 1 unit to win 1.21
Iowa/Kluber CLE/Bama 1 unit to win 1.2

Sun
Va Tech -4 to win 1 unit


Year long bets (1 unit each):
Ohio U to win MAC +650
M Tennessee to win Conference USA +600
Oklahoma State to make Final 4 +600
 
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GL this season mars, just going to have a hard time pulling the trigger with the next game up. No doubt tOSU should kill IU but it would defy everything I believe in situationally.
 
Thanks BAR, you as well. I hear you KJ, but I don't think all situational spots are equal. Big Ten night game is not the usual ho hum opener.

Played Hawaii -1 for 1 unit.

More of a play against shitbag Mass than anything. Always have to watch travel spot for Hawaii but opener shouldn't be a problem, they are good when fresh early in the season (7-2-1 ATS last five years in first 2 weeks and vs much better teams than UMass).

UMass stunk when they were in the MAC. Just not very much talent. Good luck blocking the 300 pound Samoans that Hawaii trots out.
 
I did make one Futures bet: Ohio U to Win the MAC @+650.

Why did I make this bet?

1.) I am a Bobcats homer.

2.) Who else is going to come out of the East? Buffalo & Kent should be awful, Akron and BG middling at best....leaves Miami or OU. OU gets Miami at home on Halloween night with the crowd black out drunk. Bobcats also avoid WMU and N Ill and they play Toledo in Athens.
I like the Bobcats to return to the MAC championship game and finally breakthrough against the Rockets or Western. +650 seems like good enough value to me.
 
Other MAC East thoughts:

I think it's a little premature to declare Miami the East favorite. I know they got better after the QB switch to Ragland but five of the six wins they were favorites or light dogs. I don't put much stock in the bowl game as Messy St was sleepwalking. Let's see how they look early vs Marshall and Cincy. Not sold on the D.

I think Akron is a little bit of a sleeper. They suffered a bunch of injuries to their best players last year, they have a capable QB Woodson and a super running back you've never heard of named Warren Ball. Fat Bowden has been recruiting the shit out of Fla., they got 27 Fla kids on the roster. Chuck Amato is the old-school DC here. I like them catching 33 against PSU.

Kent State is gonna be brutally bad this year. They are playing Nick Holley at QB and he can't really even pass.

Buffalo, ugh. They better make sure they beat Colgate this year because that's their most winnable home game.

My MAC East rankings:
Ohio
Akron
Miami
BG
Buffalo
Kent
 
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vk said:
Good stuff.

What do you think of the Buffalo QB?
Click to expand...

I like him. He's probably one of the best things about their team. Surprisingly mobile for a big guy with a cannon arm. He had a tendency to latch onto his first read when I watched him last year but it was his first year. I think he's going to be running for his life though...
 
Played a couple of MAC games:

Marshall +1.5 for 1 unit

As I stated above, I'm not totally sold on Miami Ohio. Marshall is coming off a 3 win season, but look at the transfers coming in to help @ WR, LB, DB. (Canes, UCLA, Bama, Georgia, Oregon St). QB Chase Litton threw for 2600 yards last year but probably got outplayed in a lot of games. I prefer him to Ragland in this matchup. I'll take Doc Holliday and the points in a game where the oddsmakers made them the dog to a MAC team for the first time in five years.

Akron +33 for 1 unit (-120)

I like Akron to score a little bit here if they can give Woodson some time to throw. I think Warren Ball will open some eyes in this game. I saw him play at DeSales High and he is a one cut guy who is a load to tackle. Not sure why it didn't work out at Ohio State for him but he is very talented.
 
Only total so far I played was Michigan/Florida Under 48. Just took it at the open because of Fla's defense and Michigan's QB quandary. Feels like a slugfest to me with two coaches who will be buttoning it up and waiting for a mistake. Evidently, someone agrees as it's dropped to 45 now...

Michigan/Florida under 48 to win 1 unit
 
Another Buckeye fan’s breakdown/opinion by position…..

QBs – JTB supposedly looking much better under guidance of K Wilson and R Day, but no matter what he looked like, I would have expected to hear this “talk”. JT is hard to figure out in that he threw the ball so much better in ‘14 than he did the past 2 seasons. One could conclude that his recent shortcomings throwing the ball are mental, but JT has also led 5 OT drives as OSU’s QB, and they have scored TDs on all 5 drives. I think he throws the ball a bit better when the game is on the line. In the end, I expect him to throw the ball better than he did in the past 2 seasons, but not like he did in ’14. Burrow just broke a bone in his throwing hand Monday. The talk was that Burrow had seized the #2 job prior to this injury, slightly ahead of Haskins, but Haskins is now the #2 with Burrow out indefinitely. Haskins looked great in the spring game, and should have a bright future. If Haskins had to play, he is much less of a running threat than JT and probably less than of a threat to run than Burrow as well.

RBs – Urban has been singing the praises of M Weber. On the Buckeye’s board in their workout facility, it lists the fastest 40 times, with Weber being the 4th fastest on the team at 4.35. Weber may have improved his 40 time, but there is no way in hell he is running a legit 4.35. This is further supported by the fastest time listed being K Sheffield’s at 4.25. Again, no way that is legit. Weber was held back the 1st 10 days of camp with a hammy, but appears to be full-go now. I do think he will be improved, but not sure how much. Dobbins is the clear #2 and everyone is raving about him. Word is his blocking is better than most true-frosh backs, and that is a big deal to Urban. D McCall is floating between TB and H-back. He seemed to be in the dog house when camp began. But McCall is the most electric player the Bucks have on offense, although he won’t be a between the tackles back.

WRs – Probably still the biggest question mark on offense. Top breakout contender is P Campbell at the H. He has done little to date, but you can argue that last year’s top breakout candidates, Samuel and N Brown had done little to date and the talk with those guys ended up being legit, especially with Samuel. The top 2 guys at the X and Y are McLaurin and Dixon, not sure which is the X and which is Y right now. If you take away his blocking ability which is tops among the WRs, McLaurin is a sub-par starter for OSU standards. Dixon is supposedly finally healthy and looking great, but I question whether he can stay healthy. Hill and/or McCall will be the backup H and Victor and Mack will back up either the X or the Y. They are expected to rotate 6 WRs again, a strategy that seemed to have poor results last year. Still a below average looking group for OSU standards, but K Wilson should get the most out of this unit.

TE: Baugh is still the #1 if he can ever stay healthy. #2 could be any of Farrell, Hausmann or Berry. Berry is the wild card here after being moved from a crowded DE position and could play a decent size roll. They may use the TE a bit more as a pass catcher with K Wilson now calling the shots on O.

OL: Studrawa was probably lucky he kept his job when Beck and Warinner were shown the door. K Wilson is supposedly spending a lot of time with this unit. Prince was the by far the weakest link last year, but his talent has never been questioned & is said to have made huge strides. We shall see. RG appears to be between Bowen, Pridgeon and Burrell, with Bowen now possibly holding the edge. I expect the line to be better, but not how much remains to be seen. The left side with J Jones and M Jordan should at least be a strong point.

DL: Embarrassment of riches at DE. Many think the #3 & #4 ends Bosa and Holmes are better than their #1 & #2. As the #5 & #6 Des, J Cooper and C Young should eventually be very good. Young is a freak that would likely be starting as a true frosh at many programs. DT is more unproven, but D Jones is probably the most improved player on the team, and likely a 1st round draft pick after he bolts early. M Hill is susp’d the opener and likely for the Okl game. T Sprinkle is back after missing almost all of ’16 and they are bringing him along slowly. Probably debatable as to who has the top DL in the country between Ohio St and Clemson.

LB: I expect this unit to be slightly stronger than last year. Worley will be more than adequate after moving from the walk-out spot to the mike. Baker is poised for a huge year and Booker has all the talent in the world at the walk-out position. The #4 LB is Malik Harrison who is a rising star. Should be a great unit this fall.

DB: They should eventually be alright, and possibly the best unit in the B1G despite losing 3 guys that went in the 1st round of last year’s draft. However, Hooker is irreplaceable. Webb has supposedly made huge strides at S and the other S spot is between E Smith and J Fuller. Fuller if healthy likely takes that job eventually. The Bucks want to play 3 corners regularly again. #1 CB is Ward, with the #2 likely Arnette who is probably the 2nd most improved player on the team. Sheffield is the #3 and will play lot. This unit could have some problems early, especially with Oklahoma Sept 9th, but again, should be strong by seasons end.
 
BuckAndSomeChange said:
Another Buckeye fan’s breakdown/opinion by position…..

QBs – JTB supposedly looking much better under guidance of K Wilson and R Day, but no matter what he looked like, I would have expected to hear this “talk”. JT is hard to figure out in that he threw the ball so much better in ‘14 than he did the past 2 seasons. One could conclude that his recent shortcomings throwing the ball are mental, but JT has also led 5 OT drives as OSU’s QB, and they have scored TDs on all 5 drives. I think he throws the ball a bit better when the game is on the line. In the end, I expect him to throw the ball better than he did in the past 2 seasons, but not like he did in ’14. Burrow just broke a bone in his throwing hand Monday. The talk was that Burrow had seized the #2 job prior to this injury, slightly ahead of Haskins, but Haskins is now the #2 with Burrow out indefinitely. Haskins looked great in the spring game, and should have a bright future. If Haskins had to play, he is much less of a running threat than JT and probably less than of a threat to run than Burrow as well.

RBs – Urban has been singing the praises of M Weber. On the Buckeye’s board in their workout facility, it lists the fastest 40 times, with Weber being the 4th fastest on the team at 4.35. Weber may have improved his 40 time, but there is no way in hell he is running a legit 4.35. This is further supported by the fastest time listed being K Sheffield’s at 4.25. Again, no way that is legit. Weber was held back the 1st 10 days of camp with a hammy, but appears to be full-go now. I do think he will be improved, but not sure how much. Dobbins is the clear #2 and everyone is raving about him. Word is his blocking is better than most true-frosh backs, and that is a big deal to Urban. D McCall is floating between TB and H-back. He seemed to be in the dog house when camp began. But McCall is the most electric player the Bucks have on offense, although he won’t be a between the tackles back.

WRs – Probably still the biggest question mark on offense. Top breakout contender is P Campbell at the H. He has done little to date, but you can argue that last year’s top breakout candidates, Samuel and N Brown had done little to date and the talk with those guys ended up being legit, especially with Samuel. The top 2 guys at the X and Y are McLaurin and Dixon, not sure which is the X and which is Y right now. If you take away his blocking ability which is tops among the WRs, McLaurin is a sub-par starter for OSU standards. Dixon is supposedly finally healthy and looking great, but I question whether he can stay healthy. Hill and/or McCall will be the backup H and Victor and Mack will back up either the X or the Y. They are expected to rotate 6 WRs again, a strategy that seemed to have poor results last year. Still a below average looking group for OSU standards, but K Wilson should get the most out of this unit.

TE: Baugh is still the #1 if he can ever stay healthy. #2 could be any of Farrell, Hausmann or Berry. Berry is the wild card here after being moved from a crowded DE position and could play a decent size roll. They may use the TE a bit more as a pass catcher with K Wilson now calling the shots on O.

OL: Studrawa was probably lucky he kept his job when Beck and Warinner were shown the door. K Wilson is supposedly spending a lot of time with this unit. Prince was the by far the weakest link last year, but his talent has never been questioned & is said to have made huge strides. We shall see. RG appears to be between Bowen, Pridgeon and Burrell, with Bowen now possibly holding the edge. I expect the line to be better, but not how much remains to be seen. The left side with J Jones and M Jordan should at least be a strong point.

DL: Embarrassment of riches at DE. Many think the #3 & #4 ends Bosa and Holmes are better than their #1 & #2. As the #5 & #6 Des, J Cooper and C Young should eventually be very good. Young is a freak that would likely be starting as a true frosh at many programs. DT is more unproven, but D Jones is probably the most improved player on the team, and likely a 1st round draft pick after he bolts early. M Hill is susp’d the opener and likely for the Okl game. T Sprinkle is back after missing almost all of ’16 and they are bringing him along slowly. Probably debatable as to who has the top DL in the country between Ohio St and Clemson.

LB: I expect this unit to be slightly stronger than last year. Worley will be more than adequate after moving from the walk-out spot to the mike. Baker is poised for a huge year and Booker has all the talent in the world at the walk-out position. The #4 LB is Malik Harrison who is a rising star. Should be a great unit this fall.

DB: They should eventually be alright, and possibly the best unit in the B1G despite losing 3 guys that went in the 1st round of last year’s draft. However, Hooker is irreplaceable. Webb has supposedly made huge strides at S and the other S spot is between E Smith and J Fuller. Fuller if healthy likely takes that job eventually. The Bucks want to play 3 corners regularly again. #1 CB is Ward, with the #2 likely Arnette who is probably the 2nd most improved player on the team. Sheffield is the #3 and will play lot. This unit could have some problems early, especially with Oklahoma Sept 9th, but again, should be strong by seasons end.
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Appreciate the thoughts, and agree with a lot here. You are probably right about the WRs being the biggest question mark. I just think they really underperformed last year so I think it might actually be better this year. Perhaps it's wishful thinking. Parris Campbell almost cost me a TV set last year. I forgot about Sprinkle, he's another beast on DL.
 
Other bets I made so far:

Bama -7 to win 1 unit
BC -2.5 to win 1.5 units (-117)
Col St -3.5 to win 1 unit (-115)
Boise St -12.5 to win 1 unit (-108)
 
Had a good start to the year on opening day.

ADD:

USC -27 for 1.5 units.

M Tenn State +4 for 1 unit

Like what i'm reading about M Tennessee, put a unit on them to win Conference USA at 6/1
 
Looking at Oklahoma State....very favorable schedule, toughest road game is @ Texas. Get Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, K State all @ home. Kind of feels like their year with Stoops retiring unexpectedly. Big12 due for a spot with super-committee.

Bet on Ok State to make Football Final Four +600

 
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Last year, we basically ran it down their throats and played ball control in a 38-17 game that wasn't that close.
Click to expand...

Seemed like is was a pretty close game until the 4th qrt when OSU just totally shut down IU and padded the score board? My memory could be wrong but I was thinking the game was actually closer than the 38-17 implied. The last 2 years I thought IU has played OSU tough. Having said that they aren't offering me enough pts to bite on the Hoosiers this time around.
 
s--k said:
Seemed like is was a pretty close game until the 4th qrt when OSU just totally shut down IU and padded the score board? My memory could be wrong but I was thinking the game was actually closer than the 38-17 implied. The last 2 years I thought IU has played OSU tough. Having said that they aren't offering me enough pts to bite on the Hoosiers this time around.
Click to expand...

Just going off my memory from sitting in the stands...How's Youngstown State looking this year?
 
I did make it to a YSU game last year, the home playoff game. I don't follow them too closely though.

Seems to me that the QB who has been playing here for a bit, he can manage some games, but not who you want to hang your hat on. You know that is what they usually want to do, run the ball and play to the D. The running game lost some pretty good RBs, but sounds like they will be ok at RB and run game in general despite the losing the top 2 guys and the OL should still be as good. The D is a pretty big question. They lost DE Rivers who just tore his ACL in Patriots camp and a DE who transferred here from Nebraska - Moss, he was also drafted too. Those guys were huge; having 2 DL drafted for YSU is a big deal. They have a Florida Gator transfer at DE this year, but he is hasn't claimed a starting role yet, not sure if that speaks to the quality ahead of him or about some deficiencies with him. Secondary is also going to be a question. So it's Bo, the game I saw, there were a few WTF moments as you might expect from a Bo team. New faces have to step up on D, the O could be just as good. That is about all I have for you. The Pitt-YSU series is pretty good with nice story lines. YSU beat Pitt a few years back with the former coach, then Bo lost by a TD his first year at Pitt. Narduzzi played high school football in Y-town and his Dad coached YSU.

I was wondering, you've had some Marshall knowledge before...what do you make of Mia Oh at Herd?
 
s--k said:
I did make it to a YSU game last year, the home playoff game. I don't follow them too closely though.

Seems to me that the QB who has been playing here for a bit, he can manage some games, but not who you want to hang your hat on. You know that is what they usually want to do, run the ball and play to the D. The running game lost some pretty good RBs, but sounds like they will be ok at RB and run game in general despite the losing the top 2 guys and the OL should still be as good. The D is a pretty big question. They lost DE Rivers who just tore his ACL in Patriots camp and a DE who transferred here from Nebraska - Moss, he was also drafted too. Those guys were huge; having 2 DL drafted for YSU is a big deal. They have a Florida Gator transfer at DE this year, but he is hasn't claimed a starting role yet, not sure if that speaks to the quality ahead of him or about some deficiencies with him. Secondary is also going to be a question. So it's Bo, the game I saw, there were a few WTF moments as you might expect from a Bo team. New faces have to step up on D, the O could be just as good. That is about all I have for you. The Pitt-YSU series is pretty good with nice story lines. YSU beat Pitt a few years back with the former coach, then Bo lost by a TD his first year at Pitt. Narduzzi played high school football in Y-town and his Dad coached YSU.

I was wondering, you've had some Marshall knowledge before...what do you make of Mia Oh at Herd?
Click to expand...

Oh, I know about the Narduzzis in the Valley...hard to bet Bo though, he's such a knucklehead.

When you look at Marshall, you have to think about last year's 3-9 season as an outlier. These guys won 33 games over the previous three years, and I think this year's team should be closer to that than what they were last year. They got some promising transfers coming in from big programs (Bama, UCLA, Canes etc) including a WR Brady from Miami who has been unstoppable in practice. I like Litton at QB, he's tall and has a nice pocket presence. I'm not totally sold on Miami Oh late season surge last year with Ragland.They really didn't play that good of teams during the streak...Marshall usually handles their MAC opponents (other than OU)...4-1 in non OU MAC games the last 4 yrs. I like Doc Holliday as well so I think they have a coaching edge. Seemed like a good bet especially when I was getting points @ home...
 
Thanks on Marshall. My August was all messed up so I'm still catching up on the fly here. Knew of the transfers but wasn't sure how they were fitting into the lineup. Good to know about Brady.

Good luck on everything!
 
s--k said:
Thanks on Marshall. My August was all messed up so I'm still catching up on the fly here. Knew of the transfers but wasn't sure how they were fitting into the lineup. Good to know about Brady.

Good luck on everything!
Click to expand...

Here's to a good season, brother. :cheers3:


ADD:

Team Total: Penn State under 48 to win 1 unit (-115)
 
Thanks Hunt...

Couldn't resist this one when it went to 15....Valley Showdown

Youngstown State +15 to win half unit
 
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