Marsski Week 1: The Return of the MACtion

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Fellas:

Took a first lap through the spreads and trying to get up to speed on this year's teams.

One spread that stood out to me was Buffalo catching 36 from the Bucks. I was talking about this in another thread already but Buffalo has a legit RB named Braden Oliver who rushed for 111 vs Ga, 238 vs Morgan St but was injured a lot later last year. He had 1400 rushing the year before.
He's gonna leave as the Bulls all time leading rusher.
He will be running into a Buckeye DL that has talent but is unproven. The LB situation for OSU was abysmal last year and required Boren to switch sides of the ball to right the leaky ship. I don't think that will be fixed in week one.
I think Oliver will have some running lanes, at least enough to move the chains and mount some drives.

At QB, Buffalo will probably play 2 including Alex Zordich who is the son of the NFL player. Zordich isn't great but in his senior year I don't think he comes into the Shoe scared.
They have a first team MAC WR who is 6'3 and will be a tough match up for the Buckeye corners.
Buffalo covered a 38 point spread easily vs. Ga last year losing 45-23 and a 30 point spread 2 years ago losing 35-16 to Pitt.

I fully expect the Bucks to get in the 40s on offense but to cover 36 it's gonna be tough...

I lean Buffalo plus the points and it will probably be on my card as long as I can get 35+
 
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Another spread that caught my eye is Maryland -20 over Fla Intl.
Maryland returns game breaker Diggs who averaged 172 a game in all purpose yards LY and adds in a transfer who had 809 in 11 at New Mexico and 1625 and 25 TDs in JUCO. They got a pretty decent RB and the QB was a mobile dude who started the injury parade last year by blowing out his knee last August.

Fla Intl has a new coach in Ron Turner and a new DC who was at The Citadel last year. They are switching from spread to more under center and have only 8 starters back, 4 from each side of the ball.
They only have 7 OL on scholarship according to Steele and are last in NCAA with only 9 starts on OL...their secondary is pretty decimated by graduation with only 1 corner back.

They lost by 20 at Duke last year as a 2 point dog in the home opener ...this sets up to me to be a trip to the woodshed.

I think I will be laying the points with the mighty Turtles
 
Week One card goes here:

Thursday

USC/UNC under 56.5 for 1 unit
Vandy/Miss under 52 for 1 unit
Tulsa +3.5 for 1 unit -115

Saturday
Buffalo +35 for 1 unit W
Marshall -19 for 1 unit W
BYU ML -118 for 1 unit L

Sunday
Ohio U +21 for 1 unit
 
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Hey hey wait a second now...Marshall laying 18 to the Dickbelts?...should be name your score in Huntington at night with the couches ablaze and the moonshine flowing. Marshall hung at least 30 on everyone last year except for the mighty Bobcats and CFla.
Big Ben U. only have 6 back on D and gave up some big games last year 538 to OSU, 599 to Boise, 629 to Akron, 546 to Kent... You get the picture...
I really can't see Marshall scoring less than 40, question is can the Turds stop anyone? Miamis QB as Steele puts it "lacks velocity" but he can run around and make a few plays if guys are wide open as they often were last year vs Marshall's horrible secondary.

Nonetheless, lean Marshall pending further evaluation of their once shoddy defense...
 
New posters: I will be giving my thoughts on all the MAC games each week. Probably wont do it until mid week so I can look at injuries, who is starting etc...

I always welcome all comments and criticisms. I do consider my expertise to be in the MAC and Big Ten and I provide the MAC breakdowns as a public service since most don't follow the shadiest league in town.
The real MACtion fun starts in late Oct and Nov when the MAC starts the mid-week degenerate specials...
 
Good luck to you as well Twink...I think I like the grass chewer in the opener now that Patterson is running his yap...plus starters quitting and the Scooter McDouglesque shenanigans ATS last year.
 
The only other MAC spread that gave me pause was Meechigan giving 32 to Zurlon Tipton U....could be a massacre in the Big House but Chips got some playmakers and won at Iowa last year so they can hitch up those britches and run with the big boys...
 
Agree 36-ish is too much vs Buff. The Buff D won't be a total push over either. Buckeyes should be in the 40-50+ range, but Buff D has the players to atleast make them earn most of it. Don't forget about LB Khalil Mack who is legit 2nd or even 1st round draft material.

I think Buff O could get about 20 pts. I'd might rather see Licata, but I'm sure they will both play especially with Zordich being a Sr from Youngstown, so he will be up for playing against the mighty Ohio St in the Shoe. I don't really think Zordich is any good, BUT somehow he did rush for 83y on 14 carries and went 14/24-148-1-0 last year at Georgia. Buffs were getting 38 there and only lost by 22 (23-45) (LB Mack was suspended for that one too).

Plus is Roby going to be suspended here for tOSU? Makes life a little easier for Neutz.

I think I actually like this 2013 Buffalo team a bit. Marsski, what are your thoughts on OVER 5.5 wins for them?

For Miami, Oh the only player I really saw that has been worth a damn on their offense was WR Nick Harwell and he is off the team and landed at Kansas. A mullti-year All Conf WR is a significant loss for a team like Miami.

Could I get your opinion on Ohio at Louisville? I think I really like Ohio here getting like what 20 pts currently. I think that line went from 17 to 20 after Dyer signed there, is he really worth 3 pts after not playing in a couple years? Who is the real Louisville, the one that whacked Gators or the one that beat Rutgers by 3, lost to UConn by 3, beat Cincy by 3, beat USF by 2 and beat SMiss by only 4 in 2012? They embarrass Florida in the Sugar and now they are laying nearly 3 TDs here. I just can't see it. Ohio small chance at upset I think and I love those pts. What do you think?
 
s--k said:
Agree 36-ish is too much vs Buff. The Buff D won't be a total push over either. Buckeyes should be in the 40-50+ range, but Buff D has the players to atleast make them earn most of it. Don't forget about LB Khalil Mack who is legit 2nd or even 1st round draft material.

I think Buff O could get about 20 pts. I'd might rather see Licata, but I'm sure they will both play especially with Zordich being a Sr from Youngstown, so he will be up for playing against the mighty Ohio St in the Shoe. I don't really think Zordich is any good, BUT somehow he did rush for 83y on 14 carries and went 14/24-148-1-0 last year at Georgia. Buffs were getting 38 there and only lost by 22 (23-45) (LB Mack was suspended for that one too).

Plus is Roby going to be suspended here for tOSU? Makes life a little easier for Neutz.

I think I actually like this 2013 Buffalo team a bit. Marsski, what are your thoughts on OVER 5.5 wins for them?

For Miami, Oh the only player I really saw that has been worth a damn on their offense was WR Nick Harwell and he is off the team and landed at Kansas. A mullti-year All Conf WR is a significant loss for a team like Miami.

Could I get your opinion on Ohio at Louisville? I think I really like Ohio here getting like what 20 pts currently. I think that line went from 17 to 20 after Dyer signed there, is he really worth 3 pts after not playing in a couple years? Who is the real Louisville, the one that whacked Gators or the one that beat Rutgers by 3, lost to UConn by 3, beat Cincy by 3, beat USF by 2 and beat SMiss by only 4 in 2012? They embarrass Florida in the Sugar and now they are laying nearly 3 TDs here. I just can't see it. Ohio small chance at upset I think and I love those pts. What do you think?
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Ohhhhhh good stuff on Harwell, I had not heard he left...that's a huge blow as you point out.
Agree about Roby being a big loss to for osu.

I think I would take over 5.5 wins especially if Stonybrook counts...emu, umass and Miami are certain wins. At w mich is very winnable and that would give you 5 if stony counts. Uconn only won by 7 last year and Oliver didn't play and it will be homecoming so you would think a big crowd... I think kent comes back to the field a little bit and Toledo won't be favored by a huge margin, I think it's a decent bet. If Stonybrook doesn't count then you are really counting on them beating UConn and I'd handicap that closely.

i think we will see a bunch of points in the Louisville bobcats game...bridge water will dice up the bobcats but I think Tettleton will get his too... Need to look at it a little closer but 21 seems high to me as well. The over might be the way to play it honestly depending on how high its set
 
Marsski said:
Good luck to you as well Twink...I think I like the grass chewer in the opener now that Patterson is running his yap...plus starters quitting and the Scooter McDouglesque shenanigans ATS last year.
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we agree Mars, I liked em before that too lol
 
Yes, all games count for wins on my win totals. I have them taking care of business vs the teams they should like you mention, I guess I saw them a small fav at home over UConn and then I see them pulling an upset or two vs some of the more established names in the league. I've got a good feeling about them...so long as the tOSU and Baylor games don't hurt them too bad with injuries, but the schedule sets up well for them in that regard with Stony Brook and then the week 4 bye.

Yeah, Harwell would have become Miami, Oh's all time leading receiver this season. They have other guys that can catch for stats, but he was the only go-to-guy they had as far as I know.

I'm curious what people think about that Ohio-LV game. I feel like that game is lined off alot of hype for LV, some of which is deserving, and also as if Ohio is a push-over team that doesn't have capability to compete vs teams with better talent, which I think they do. These are high times on offense for OU last 2 years and should be again this year. They had some bad losses to end the season last year, but that season just kind of unraveled on them. I fully expect 2013 OU Bobcats to be a much different team (and healthier) than we saw close 2012 regular season. They really could have had a record better than 9-4 last year.
 
s--k said:
Yes, all games count for wins on my win totals. I have them taking care of business vs the teams they should like you mention, I guess I saw them a small fav at home over UConn and then I see them pulling an upset or two vs some of the more established names in the league. I've got a good feeling about them...so long as the tOSU and Baylor games don't hurt them too bad with injuries, but the schedule sets up well for them in that regard with Stony Brook and then the week 4 bye.

Yeah, Harwell would have become Miami, Oh's all time leading receiver this season. They have other guys that can catch for stats, but he was the only go-to-guy they had as far as I know.

I'm curious what people think about that Ohio-LV game. I feel like that game is lined off alot of hype for LV, some of which is deserving, and also as if Ohio is a push-over team that doesn't have capability to compete vs teams with better talent, which I think they do. These are high times on offense for OU last 2 years and should be again this year. They had some bad losses to end the season last year, but that season just kind of unraveled on them. I fully expect 2013 OU Bobcats to be a much different team (and healthier) than we saw close 2012 regular season. They really could have had a record better than 9-4 last year.
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I'm a Bobcat alum so it's hard for me to be objective but certainly the injuries they had last year were ridiculous especially on defense. I think they can play with the Cards but what worries me is what happens in the trenches...Bobcats lost best 2 OL and Cards got basically everyone back on D. They have to get a pass rush on Bridgewater if they sit in zone he will eat them up...so while I do agree with you I do have a few reservations...
 
LV definitely getting that hype though based off the bowl...doesn't anyone care about the 45 my Bobcats threw up on uhhhh I think it was LSU or somebody like that...
 
Yeah, LV will have good advantages on the lines, without me knowing much about the personnel returning for Ohio, I see they lost their best off both O and D lines. LV did only have 22 sacks last year though with 5 vs Pitt, 4 vs USF and 3 came in the bowl. They do return all those guys with sacks, it is just hard for me to look past all those shitting games that LV was in last season and see them as a 20.5 pt fav here. I need to get into details more.

GL this year. MAC is a fun and interesting conference, thanks for posting your thoughts as you've always done before. I look forward to 2013!
 
Marsski said:
Another spread that caught my eye is Maryland -20 over Fla Intl.
Maryland returns game breaker Diggs who averaged 172 a game in all purpose yards LY and adds in a transfer who had 809 in 11 at New Mexico and 1625 and 25 TDs in JUCO. They got a pretty decent RB and the QB was a mobile dude who started the injury parade last year by blowing out his knee last August.

Fla Intl has a new coach in Ron Turner and a new DC who was at The Citadel last year. They are switching from spread to more under center and have only 8 starters back, 4 from each side of the ball.
They only have 7 OL on scholarship according to Steele and are last in NCAA with only 9 starts on OL...their secondary is pretty decimated by graduation with only 1 corner back.

They lost by 20 at Duke last year as a 2 point dog in the home opener ...this sets up to me to be a trip to the woodshed.

I think I will be laying the points with the mighty Turtles
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The LOBO transfer (deon long) is legit, and faaaaast. Also a maryland kid. The only question i have is who's gonna be the week one starter at QB? Is it gonna be Brown, i hope not.

Or is it gonna be my personal favorite in the terps qb carousel, Ricky Ricardo Young, a DC native, and former Lobo who understands the OC's system from their shared days in the enchanted state. Ricardo and Long have known eachother since high school, and i think it would be a big advantage for the terps if these two started together. they played together at UNM, and that iowa cc.

im with you on the terps here marskki, whoever the QB is, it think you're right about the woodshed.
 
Marsski said:
Roby suspension not official yet but found a quote from Urban saying yeah, probably going to be one...
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Roby will almost certainly miss the Buffalo game…probably 2 or more games total. His offense is worse than Hyde's IMO and Hyde got 3 games. Right now, my numbers have OSU with 71 scholarship players available (max) for the opener, and that number drops to 44 if you were to exclude freshmen. Injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. are taking their toll. Also, Curtis Grant has missed most of the camp with a concussion, which has meant only 3 non-frosh scholarship LB's have been practicing.

On the plus side, the true frosh are more game ready than in recent memory - even if the Bucks didn't have the depth issues, Dontre Wilson (hybrid pos) wasn't going to be kept of the field; Michael Hill will hold his own at DT (and lining up outside) from day 1; Jalin Marshall, Joey Bosa, Mike Mitchell and multiple frosh DB's should also be able to help fairly quickly.

The WR's have come a long way & you know what you have with Braxton and the O-line, if they stay healthy - points are going to be plentiful. The DB's should be solid once they get Roby back and the D-line may exceed expectations.

But back to the LB position and the depth concerns….Curtis Grant does not have the mentality to play the Mike at Ohio State and he will not hold onto that job. That is a major, major concern. Either they slide Josh Perry from over from the SAM or play true frosh Mitchell…it's almost inevitable.
 
BuckAndSomeChange said:
Roby will almost certainly miss the Buffalo game…probably 2 or more games total. His offense is worse than Hyde's IMO and Hyde got 3 games. Right now, my numbers have OSU with 71 scholarship players available (max) for the opener, and that number drops to 44 if you were to exclude freshmen. Injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. are taking their toll. Also, Curtis Grant has missed most of the camp with a concussion, which has meant only 3 non-frosh scholarship LB's have been practicing.

On the plus side, the true frosh are more game ready than in recent memory - even if the Bucks didn't have the depth issues, Dontre Wilson (hybrid pos) wasn't going to be kept of the field; Michael Hill will hold his own at DT (and lining up outside) from day 1; Jalin Marshall, Joey Bosa, Mike Mitchell and multiple frosh DB's should also be able to help fairly quickly.

The WR's have come a long way & you know what you have with Braxton and the O-line, if they stay healthy - points are going to be plentiful. The DB's should be solid once they get Roby back and the D-line may exceed expectations.

But back to the LB position and the depth concerns….Curtis Grant does not have the mentality to play the Mike at Ohio State and he will not hold onto that job. That is a major, major concern. Either they slide Josh Perry from over from the SAM or play true frosh Mitchell…it's almost inevitable.
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The scuttlebutt seems to be focused on Mitchell playing a bunch which is an indictment of how bad the situation truly is in my mind.
Curtis Grant is not going to magically get better, he's always looked lost out there as sure you've noticed. I'm pinning my hopes on Mitchell but honestly think we have another year of sub par play from this position. Very excited to see Wilson as he is getting the most hype since Clarett...
 
Marsski said:
Another spread that caught my eye is Maryland -20 over Fla Intl.
Maryland returns game breaker Diggs who averaged 172 a game in all purpose yards LY and adds in a transfer who had 809 in 11 at New Mexico and 1625 and 25 TDs in JUCO. They got a pretty decent RB and the QB was a mobile dude who started the injury parade last year by blowing out his knee last August.

Fla Intl has a new coach in Ron Turner and a new DC who was at The Citadel last year. They are switching from spread to more under center and have only 8 starters back, 4 from each side of the ball.
They only have 7 OL on scholarship according to Steele and are last in NCAA with only 9 starts on OL...their secondary is pretty decimated by graduation with only 1 corner back.

They lost by 20 at Duke last year as a 2 point dog in the home opener ...this sets up to me to be a trip to the woodshed.

I think I will be laying the points with the mighty Turtles
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Don't disagree with anything you've said, but I am more than a little bit nervous laying almost 3 TDs with the Terps. Personally I think the best play here is the UNDER. If I can get something in the neighborhood of 27, I'll be all over the 1st half UNDER.
 
Lets talk about Kent for a minute...not sure I wanna lay -140 juice at my local but Kent RSW total is 4.5.
They play Liberty, @Akron, MiamiO and @ S Alabama. Hard to see them losing any of those even though Akron is a rivalry...so they would need 1 more win anytime during the year to hit this...they will be favored at home vs Buffalo and will be close to a pick vs BG I would think...at western I would think favored...this seems like it should be 5.5 or 6 to me.

Kent losing Keith isn't a big loss and I expect Archer and Durham to be way over 1000 apiece. Goode should be very tough at WR and the OL will drop off but not drastically.Defense will drop off but DLine should be able to get pressure with 4. DBs should be OK but they will miss Malauulu a ton at LB.
i don't see them having another miracle year especially with the coaching change but tell me how they aren't going to win 5?
 
Another RSW total I am looking at is Temple over 4.5 -125...got Fordham, @Idaho, Army and @memphis on schedule...also have UConn, Houston at home...need to read up a little because I see them getting to 5 even though Phil Steele says "tough to top 4" in his writeup
 
VK said:
2-2 in those four games you just posted. Highly doubt they beat Memphis.
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Who else--Army?

I look at those Conference USA teams coming in and it's hard for me to see Temple as clearly worse than say Houston, SMU and Memphis. UCF yes...
 
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Memphis is on the improve and Temple wasn't any better than Memphis last year. Now they lose their greatest asset ( coach ) ... are without a VERY good running back for the first time in forever, switch to a pass happy offense without the horses to run it. I suppose they catch Memphis the last game of the year when Temple should be greatly improved and they did spank Army pretty good last year. So it isn't like 4-0 out of those would be a surprise. I am really down on that team for this year though.
 
VK said:
Memphis is on the improve and Temple wasn't any better than Memphis last year. Now they lose their greatest asset ( coach ) ... are without a VERY good running back for the first time in forever, switch to a pass happy offense without the horses to run it. I suppose they catch Memphis the last game of the year when Temple should be greatly improved and they did spank Army pretty good last year. So it isn't like 4-0 out of those would be a surprise. I am really down on that team for this year though.
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:shake:
 
Marsski said:
Information out of Buckeye presser:

Urban says Jordan Hall is the starting back and its his job to lose even when Carlos Hyde comes back.

Curtis Grant (LB) has been out with a concussion and missed a bunch of practice time.

Freshmen that will play for sure are Dontre Wilson, E. Elliott, Joey Bosa and Cameron Johnston.

Jalin Marshall NOT in the playing time mix at WR

http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index...._updates_from_urban.html#incart_river_default
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Jalin had a concussion early in camp as well..missed alot of time
 
Like we talked before, I think Buffalo has some potential to be a good story in the MAC this year. Not that I'm saying they are a great team or anything. But in in my area of northeast Ohio media talking about this game I've heard things like Buffalo is the worst team in the MAC, Buffalo is the worst team Ohio State has ever played, etc. And in the national media it has been much of the same. So if that line keeps going down there must be some seriously heavy sharp action because the masses would be falling all over themselves to see Urban name his score vs lowly Buffalo. I still like Buffalo quite a bit here.
 
Thanks Hound and Silk...

Gonna open up my MAC discussion week 1 with the Thursday games...

First up: Akron Zips @ C Fla, spread is 22.5

Akron has won a whopping 3 games in 3 years so we know this is a program going nowhere fast. They hired Fat Bowden a year ago to turn things around and while they did put some points up their defense was awful giving up 40 or more four times and 50 or more twice.

They had a decent QB emerge last yr but he is gone now and sophomore Kyle Pohl won the job. He is supposed to be a decent running threat but has played only in one game so probably going to struggle in the passing game for a while. Akrons bright spot on offense is their RB Chisholm who went for nearly 1000 last yr.
He's gonna have some tough sledding running into a defense that held the Zips to 27/69 on the ground last yr.

Akron does return their top 4 WRs but none of them are real playmakers or game changers. I would think UCFs defense might slip slightly from last yr excellent version but should still be able to stack the box and stifle Akron.

On offense Bortles is back at QB and will be running the spread. Akron has been pathetic in the secondary finishing in the bottom of Steeles rankings and looks to be only 215-270-272-245 across the front. UCF has almost everyone at 305 or better. Bortles was 13-16 last year vs Akron with 3TDs so he looks to have similar success this year.

I have a hard time seeing Akron being competitive in this game and wouldn't be surprised by something akin to last years 56-14 drubbing in Akron. Still, more than 3 scores is a lot to lay and I do expect Akron to have improved some.
Another thing I noticed was that the yards and first downs were pretty close to even LY so maybe it wasn't as lopsided a game as the score indicated.

I'd lay the points or have no one. I'm not someone who lays a bunch of points that often so I will pass...
 
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