Marsski 8

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD 29-32

Another .500 week, Michigan shitting the bed with their Fred Flintstone coach and shitty kicker cost me as did Marshall not showing up. Maybe Fla Atl. isn't that bad.

I bet Ohio State -16.5 as soon as I could. I think it should be 20 or so. OSU defensive line impressed me vs. NW and the linebacker play this year has been vastly improved. The front 7 is very important vs. Iowa given that they want to run Weisman and hit play action. I don't see them sustaining many drives and I don't think they have the playmakers and QB talent to exploit OSU through the air.
On offense, I would think we see a bounce back effort from Braxton and Hyde can tote the rock as much as need be. The offensive line play is really coming along I think.
I think that OSU is beginning to realize they need style points and blowouts wins for BCS style points. I see OSU getting up big and staying on the gas.

Week 8 Card:

Ohio State -16.5 for 1 unit
Washington State +38 for 1 unit
Toledo -6.5 for 1 unit (-120)
Teaser Toledo -2/LSU -2 for 1 unit (-120)
Florida -3 for 1 unit (-115)
Akron -6.5 for 1 unit (-125)
ML parlay: Akron/N Illinois/Wisconsin half unit to win .44
ML parlay: Maryland/Oregon St 1 unit to win .85
Ohio -13.5 for 1 unit
 
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I know Oregon is a machine on offense but giving mike leach 38 coming off a big hyped win over Washington?
I watched Wazzpu last week and they were in the game vs Oregon State for 3 quarters until the wheels came off with turnovers. I think they got a lit more talent than teams usually getting 38 ala Colorado. I know Ducks ATS record has been impressive but just feel like the spread is getting out of hand in this case considering it is a flat spot for Oregon. Think we see 52-31.

Washington State +38 for 1 unit
 
Last 3 Oregon games for Wazzou:
25 point loss getting 30
15 point loss getting 35
20 point loss getting 35
 
Last year Oregon and Wazzou each had 26 first downs and Ducks only +67 yards. Wazzou was down 23-19 at half.
 
I don't really like to go against the service academies if the team they are playing hasn't seen the triple option...but I think we have a special case in Toledo this week.

For starters, Toledo had a bye week last week so they will have had two full weeks of practice vs. the triple option by the time Saturday's game is played. Secondly, they have 8 seniors on the two-deep who played the triple option vs. AF in a bowl game two years ago. That means they had a whole month of practice for that game vs. the triple option. They also have defensive coordinator who coached the triple option at Pittsburgh State as the tight ends coach in the late 90s.
Toledo is also second in the MAC vs. the run so if they play sound football I think they can stuff Navy. Keenan Reynolds was knocked out vs. W Ky with a concussion and played poorly vs. Duke with several turnovers. He will need to play a flawless game to keep Navy in this game, and given his recent play and injuries I don't see it.

Navy get rolled 35-7 at Duke last weekend, and Duke's QB who hadn't played in a month diced them 31-38 for 295. I think its fair to say that Navy's secondary is a mess.
Toledo had their highest point output of the year--47--when they played Western last time out, and have all kinds of weapons to throw at Navy with Fluellen, Reedy etc. They should have easy pickings on that Navy secondary.

Only thing I don't like is that BG is next up for Toledo, so it is a lookahead spot for the Rockets. But at home and off the bye gives them focus here I think.

I think Toledo gets into the high 30s/low 40s here, and I have a hard time seeing Navy matching unless Reynolds plays out of his mind...something like 38-17 is the final here.

Play: Toledo -6.5 for 1 unit (-120)
 
One of the nation's best defenses gets a freshman QB making his first start. I will lay the 3 especially with Mizzou coming off the big win.
Play: Gators -3 for 1 unit (-115)
 
Toledo and Florida will be on my card as well. Couldn't agree more with your write ups, as that is how I see these games as well
 
Good take on the Toledo game. I'm a little leary where the line is going and where it ends up by Saturday, but at your number certainly looks good. GL
 
Thanks Hound, Hammer, Bull, Tim, s--k...good luck to each and everyone as well.

Ole Miss is just so beat up right now. Nkewdiche is out for LSU with a bad hammy and also banged up are CB Mike Hilton, Safety Chief Brown, DT Isaac Gross, DE Carols Thompson, DE CJ Johnson...and explosive RB Jeff Scott. And they are coming off a demoralizing loss to Johnny Football. Meanwhile, LSU has Furman and a week off before Bama. Great spot for them.
I teased LSU through the 7,4 and 3 and did the same with Toledo.

Play: Teaser Toledo -2/LSU -2 for 1 unit (-120)
 
In terms of Ole Miss injuries, Nkemdiche and Hilton started every game, CJ Johnson started 4, Gross started 3, and Brown started 1. Thompson played in five but didn't start any.
 
Frequent flyers to this thread know that I am not a fan of Fat Bowden nor the Akron Zips. However, I must say that if there is such a thing as a deceiving 1-6 than they have it this year. They took Michigan to the gun, hung in against La La, and battled Northern Illinois to within 7. They also have some really bad games this year such as shellacking in the rain at home to OU. They are not a good football team, but by no means are they a oh-my-god-these-guys-suck-so-bad-I-can't-watch. But they play one of those teams this week.

Miami is last in the NCAA in offensive yards and has scored 54 in their last 6 games. Total. They have a Qb Austin Boucher who is hitting 43 percent of his passes this year and had thrown four TDs and six picks. He throws lollypop passes and is inaccurate. Their leading WR has 10 catches this year and their leading rusher is their back-up QB who can't pass a fucking lick.
They fired their coach and then went to UMass and lost to the winless Minutemen. They had 290 total yards and 19 first downs and that was probably their best offensive game of the entire year.
Nonetheless, they were still 1-13 on third down vs UMass. UMass threw for 249 on them, and UMass has a pretty pathetic pass offense.
So when I tell you that Miami sucks, I mean really sucks. Really really.

Akron actually has a decent RB in Chisholm and a QB in Pohl that can be decent. They have a couple of capable WRs and can put up some points when they aren't punching above their weight class (UCF, BG) or playing in a monsoon (OU).
I think that Akron DC Chuck Amato in his 40th year as a defensive coach is probably ready for whatever interim coach Bath is ready to throw at him with the worst offense in the country. I think Akron can score at least 24 on Miami and I wouldn't be surprised by something in the 30s.
Akron has lost 28 straight games vs. D1 opponents. They haven't beaten Miami in Oxford since 1939. But they win on Saturday going away...I see something like 27-6.
I bought a half just to be safe.

Play: Akron -6.5 for 1 unit (-125)
 
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Emotional game for Eastern with player getting killed, but Bobcats are much better. I will lay less than 2 touches.
Play: Ohio Bobcats -13.5 for 1 unit
 
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